2017 Database Analisys Discussion!!

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2017 Database Analisys Discussion!!

Hey guys!

In this first months of 2018 I'm trying to do a deep database analisys from the hands I played in 2017.
Mostly they come from 3$ to 109$ MTT and 3R and 8$ 180's.
I would like your help to suggest some improvements I need to do to my game and what kind of filters should I use to learn more about my game and my weaknesses.

To begin, I'll show you my stats by Position and by Stack size:

Position

Stack Size

What do you guy's think about this? I guess I'm a ok reg but I have no idea about what numbers should I have or not to have.

My first idea for the database analisys was to review some of my shortstack play since I like to play turbos a lot. And to do that I was trying to see if my shoving ranges were doing ok in the diferent positions and by the diferent stack sizes.
I was planing to see 4BB-6BB; 8BB-12BB; 14BB-16BB in all the positions (EP, MP, CO, BTN, SB only these ones and not the full 9 because I can't get MP3 ou EP2 in HM2). What do you think? My overall doubt here is if I have enough hands in each spot to take any conclusions about the profitability of the hand in that spot, but anyway I think I can see some trends I can fix.

So, in the next post I'll try to show some results comparing the ranges I shove in unoppened pots (mostly Nash EQ ranges) vs the results I got vs the overall field I play against.

Thanks a lot in advance. I really hope this post to help me and you guys to answer some questions about database review ;)

8 Comments

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felipejay 7 years, 2 months ago

Hello mate, from what i see your stats are very good and you have hands enough imo, but i think that to make a deep analysis you should put more stats in that picture, like F T (i think river its ok not to put but you can put if you like) cbet %, fold to cbet %, fold to 3bet, 3bet steal, steal %, fold to steal and Ag factor, to see if you have some sort of leak there and stuff.

When you do that, you can filter the stats you have doubts, to me for example, i use pt4, when i see that my cbet T % is low or high, i filter the hands that i cbet and the hands i could/couldn't cbet.

I think since your doubts are most likely on push/fold ranges, you can filter short stack spots and running ICMizer along, good thing you could do is study close equity spots, like 0.02+, 0.08+ since sometimes it's better to fold some minor EV+ hands and stuff considering your edge at the games you play.

Hope i can help you with that, regards man.

JMMaga 7 years, 2 months ago

For the next part, my idea was to filter my hands for stack sizes in each position in unopened pots to see my UO PRF% and see if it matches the numbers from nash shoving ranges.

I have charts for all 8 positions and HM2 only alows me to work with 5 positions so some interpretation is needed.

NASH SHOVING RANGES for 5BB Stack: (You can also compare with yours and see if we have the same results)

(EP Positions)
UTG - 24.1% - 22+ A2s+ A7o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo+ J9s+ T8s+ 98s
UTG+1 - 28.5% - 22+ A2s+ A5o+ K5s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s

(MP Positions)
MP1 - 31.8% - 22+ A2s+ A3o+ K4s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s
MP2 - 34.8% - 22+ Ax+ K3s+ K9o+ Q6s+ Q9o+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s
MP3 - 40% - 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K7o+ Q5s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o T7s+ T9o 97s+ 87s 76s

CO - 45.1% - 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J6s+ J8o T6s+ T9o 97s+ 86s+ 76s

BTN - 54.4% - 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J4s+ J8o T6s+ T8o 96s+ 98o 86s+ 76s

SB - 83.3% - 22+ Tx+ 92s+ 94o+ 82s+ 85o+ 73s+ 75o+ 63s+ 65o 53s+ 43s

Now my stats for 4BB-6BB Stacks:

Filters Aplied

4BB-6BB Stack Stats

Comparing the stats with the ranges we can some trends:

  • EP I'm playing too loose 35.1% vs the nash ranges of 24.1% and 28.5%;
  • MP I'm playing 43.7% vs MP ranges all of them below 40%, again too loose;
  • CO stats 49.1% vs 45.1% nash, again too loose;
  • BTN stats 55% vs 54.4% nash, seems right;
  • SB stats 81.5% vs 83.3%, seems ok on the tight side.

So, seems that I'm pushing a bit too loose as we go from LP to EP and I it's probably a leak of my game that I have to fix. More patience and wait for the right spot even If I have to fold some good looking hads with this shorter of a stack.
Now, my main doubt if that if 3.2K hands in this situations is enough to take this type of conclusions or if I need a bigger sample. What do you guys think?

Next post I'll do the same exercise with 8-12BB Stacks.

Thanks a lot

felipejay 7 years, 2 months ago

hey man, sorry i took so long, let's see

hmmm, i think you right at some points, sometimes it's good to fold close equity spots like i said, so when we shove we have more chance to gain more money and be more profitable on long term, specially on EP spots, i had that leak too, sometimes some good hands are close fold.

JMMaga 7 years, 2 months ago

Now I'll do the same exercise for a stack size between 8BB and 12BB.

First the NASH RANGES for 10BB Stacks:

(EP Positions)
UTG - 14.7% - 44+ A8s+ A5s ATo+ K9s+ KQo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T9s+
UTG+1 - 17% - 33+ A4s+ ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T9s+

(MP Positions)
MP1 - 19.8% - 22+ A3s+ A9o+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T8s+ 98s
MP2 - 22.6% - 22+ A2s+ A8o+ K8s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ T8s+ 98s 87s
MP3 - 28.5% - 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 97s+ 87s

CO - 34% - 22+ Ax+ K5s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 86s+ 76s 65s

BTN - 42.7% - 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K6o+ Q5s+ Q9o J7s+ J9o T6s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 75s+ 65s 54s

SB - 71%% - 22+ Qx+ J2s+ J5o T2s+ T7o+ 93s+ 96o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 63s+ 65o 53s+ 43s

Now my stats for 8BB-12BB Stacks:

Filters Aplied

8BB-12BB Stack Stats

Aldough I know sometimes I have a Open Raise range with 12BB, the vast majory of the time I'm shoving as the stats show.

Comparing the stats with the ranges we can some trends:

  • EP I'm playing a range looser than Nash, 18.4% stats vs something between 15% and 17% from Nash. This can come from two things: or I'm shoving too much or I'm raise folding some hands (for sure is the later);
  • MP seems that I'm pretty much on the sweet spot 24.8% stats vs something between 20% and 28.5% from Nash;
  • CO 33.8% stats vs 34% Nash, seems about perfect;
  • BTN 43% stats vs 42.7% Nash, seems again very good;
  • SB 69.6% stats vs 71% Nash, seems on the mouche again;

So, from this numbers I can say I'm very pleased to see that I'm playing very solid when it comes to shove from a 8BB to 12BB Stack;

Now I would like to know the profitability of this Nash ranges against the average field I face when I play. Maybe they are mathematically perfect, but not perfect against a non GTO calling range from the field I face.

That's the subject of the next post.

Thanks again guys. Waiting for some feedback ;)

felipejay 7 years, 2 months ago

That's look pretty good man, i think maybe you're raising/fold too much on hands that play better as open shove with 11~12bb stack, for me, i stopped raise/fold with that stack because players these days defend a lot more than they used to defend 2/3 yrs ago, so most of times we gonna be outplayed from a good player defending on bb.

I think that you have to look the player that are on the BB so you can see if it's better to open shove or raise, normally vs reg with 12bb stack i prefer to just shove in some spots so he can't defend against my raise, of course i'm gonna raise/call or raise/fold some hands but now i look more to who's the guy first.

Nash ranges are good to study but they're not 100% optimal since sometimes vs a weak player you can shove a little more and vs regs you can shove a little less, for example, if you are in blind war vs random player, you can pretty much shove around 90% of the deck since he's calling range is gonna be more tighter, now vs reg, you can decrease that number since he's gonna be calling more often with hands that most player woundn't consider like JTs, J9s, Q5o, K2o and stuff.

regards man, gl ate the tables

JMMaga 7 years, 2 months ago

Now I'm going to see how I'm doing with my ranges in each position and with diferent stack sizes in terms of profitability.

My plan is to check the bottom of the range and to see if, from the hands I VPIP more often, I'm loosing any money.

4BB-6BB I don't think I have enough hands to take any conclusions.

8BB-12BB EP:

Filters Aplied

8BB-12BB EP Bottom of Shoving Range

As you can see, aldough I win money even with the bottom of my shoving range, seems that I'm losing money with the hand I VPIP the most from this range, A5s.
A4s, A5s, A6s, T9s and Q9s all seem to be loosing hands. I probably cannot completely eliminate them from my range but I wonder if the ones I VPIP the most, A5s and T9s should be in my shoving range with less frequency. 100% seems too much and maybe I should have some type of criteria to shove this hands instead of just blind shove because is in the Nash Range. Choose a tigh BB or wait for an amateur player to be in the BB seems the two most important factors to consider in this case or maybe let them go if the table is full of REGs. What do you think guys?

8BB-12BB MP:

FIlters Aplied

8BB-12BB MP Bottom of Shoving Range

Well, the hand in question is the same, A5s. Aldough is not the one with the bigger absolut frequency, is the one that I have the highest VPIP (100% Shove Freq) and still loose money with it.
Only lower on the list comes 87s (57.1% Shove Freq) and J8s (35% Shove Freq).
Anyway A2s, A3s and A4s are all profitable with a lower shove frequency so I guess the conclusion I can take is that I can't just shove A5s and wait for the hand to turn a profit. I have to choose more carefully the spots using probably the criteria I described above.

8BB-12BB CO:

Filters Aplied

8BB-12BB CO Bottom of Shoving Range

Nothing seems to frequent to take any conclusions and the hands I VPIP more are in the green and only lower on the list some unprofitable hands come up, but with a very low absolute frequency.

8BB-12BB BTN:

Filters Aplied

8BB-12BB BTN Bottom of Shoving Range

In this data sheet I decided to order hands by absolut frequency because I had a bunch of 100% VPIP hands but just with one or two occurrences.
As you can see, from the hands I get the most K6o and Q9o seem to be the ones I need to pay more atention to the spot when I shove. I have a high frequency shove with this hands and I'm loosing money, so something needs to change ;)
The ones lower on the list I will not consider due to lack of occurrences.

8BB-12BB SB:

Filters Aplied

8BB-12BB SB Bottom of Shoving Range

Taking a look at the numbers nothing seems too crazy because I don't have enough data to take any serious conclusions. I would say just to pay atention to the offsuit hands I'm shoving with more frequency and to let some of them go especially in SB spots where the BB is a REG that is going to have a proper calling range and frequency.

CONCLUSION:

I'm glad to see that I'm winnig money even with the bottom of my shoving range in every position.
Anyway, the positions I think I need to improve more are the early ones where seems that sometimes I do not pick the right frequencies to shove some hands, especially A5s.

Waiting for some feedback guys ;) Take care!

felipejay 7 years, 2 months ago

i think you don't have enough sample to say if one hand is a better shove than the other one, in some cases, for example, A5s is better than A6s bc it's a hand that can make straight draws more often.

imo you should see hands that are offsuited, sometimes they're better a fold than a shove.

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