1k live Main Event Ft

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1k live Main Event Ft

hey guys, so I played this hand last week at a local casino. Its the main event of the spring poker classic series they just put on. Anyways,


The final table has two really really aggro players at it with alot of history with each other. There has been a  raise or 3 bet put in by one or the other every hand so far of this ft. The hand in question only involves one of these guys, Im told he used to hang with "the crew" of like 2004ish era? maybe i don't really know. I do know he plays professionally and is super agro. 

So anyways, table folds to me (we are 8 handed) and im in the cutoff with ajcc our blinds are at 3/6k 500 and i raise to 13000 with about 330k behind.  The dude described above makes the call out of the sb.  bb folds

We see three and its 4c 8r qc  he checks and i check back here as I have been doing here and there with both weak and strong hands. 

The turns peels the kc  he once again checks to me and i bet 11k, he tanks and raises to 40k. Still doesn't seem that out of the ordinary as he has been doing this the whole ft.(raising scare cards and dry flips) 

So i end up making it 110k here. he tanks and tanks and ends up calling

River is the mighty 8 of hearts... he checks to me.. and i?


my question here is how good of a spot is it to pile it in here? 

 seems like i have a ton of fold equity here but not sure of the range of hands he would be c/r calling with on that turn. 

Also wug thoughts on not betting flip? 

6 Comments

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yoren 11 years ago

Tricky spot. I would not be surprised if this is a check back for ICM reasons. I think that last bet might need to go in on a 65-70%+ edge depending on payout structure and other stacks. He has 5-8 flush combos undiscounted, unless he's making some ambitious preflop calls.

Ex.

Stack if shove, called, win = 696k

Stack if shove, called, lose = 0

Stack if check, win = 476k

Stack if check, lose = 220k

EVshove = %fold(EVof476k) + %call[(equityvscall)(EVof696k) + (1-equityvscall)(EVof0k)]

EVcheck = %fold(EVof476k) + %call[(equityvscall)(EVof476k) + (1-equityvscall)(EVof220k)]

Equate EVshove and EVcheck to solve for minimum equity you need vs a call range, 'equityvscall'. Other values provided by an icm calculator.

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Doubtful he's c/r/flatting with less than a set, maybe KQ. I think c/r-ing with a low flush is not that much different than c/r-ing with a set considering most players cbet their flushdraws. Not sure if people c/r those sets in practice tho.

Flop can go either way, imo.

Turn, I'd bet bigger as a default with my range and as played I'd just flat the c/r.



MrSneeze 11 years ago

I like the flop check back against a good player, we have a lot of deception and we can peel with our Ahi if he leads on further streets (not bad to induce bluffs when we have such heavy equity and the nut draw).

Turn I agree with Yoren, I'd absolutely bet way bigger than 11K, as there is more than 35K in the middle (right?). I'd bet at least 20K, probably more. I mean we check back flop for deception, now that we hit we have to build the pot, as we'll be called light and he'll be willing to make moves. When we bet tiny and then 3b this turn, we actually lose all the deception value of the check back flop, as we're now faced up as having a flush, and maybe a few bluffs with the Ac, but how many Ac with no pair do you play this way?

For those reasons, I don't think we can profitably bet river with ICM, as we're now beat by a decent chunk of his range that XR and peel turn, and we certainly rep a big flush, making it tough to be called by worse (I still expect vilain to have a hard time folding a flush considering his aggro image, but we do give him all the reasons to opt for a hero fold... and he can't have better than a Thi flush).


mikehunsucker 11 years ago

Hard To Speak On ICM Without Knowing The Other Stacks At The TaBle.  WhaT Is Your Plan With Your Turn Raise Besides, Win The Pot Right Now?  WhaT Hands Do We Think We Are Representing With Our Raise On The Turn?  Which, If Any River Cards, Are We Piling It In?

akb1 11 years ago

I think you can eliminate a lot of small flushes from his range. The type of player that wants to run over the FT won't just peel small suited connectors from the SB.

Thinking more about his preflop range I would assume QQ and KK are going to be 3b by him almost every time. Just 44 and a small % of slowplayed QQ and KK make sense for his boats OTR. 

TClermont 10 years, 11 months ago

Definitely betting. Not sure if I'm bet/folding, or bet/calling, but definitely betting. Something like 80k. If he double checkraises you, well it's villain dependent obv., but 90% of the time live that's the near nuts lol.

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