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162$ 6max tough river spot against a good reg

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162$ 6max tough river spot against a good reg

PokerStars Hand #95343899943: Tournament #710010006, $150+$12 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (250/500) - 2013/03/10 23:40:23 WET [2013/03/10 19:40:23 ET]
Table '710010006 3' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: cheezees (16934 in chips)
Seat 3: juliar777us (37242 in chips)
Seat 4: Poka_Face222 (29913 in chips)
Seat 5: malpils43 (6759 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: ibluffheaps (20074 in chips)
cheezees: posts the ante 60
juliar777us: posts the ante 60
Poka_Face222: posts the ante 60
malpils43: posts the ante 60
ibluffheaps: posts the ante 60
malpils43: posts small blind 250
ibluffheaps: posts big blind 500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Poka_Face222 [Kc 9h]
cheezees: folds
juliar777us: folds
Poka_Face222: raises 550 to 1050
malpils43: folds
ibluffheaps: calls 550
*** FLOP *** [Ad 9d 4h]
ibluffheaps: checks
Poka_Face222: bets 1225
ibluffheaps: calls 1225
*** TURN *** [Ad 9d 4h] [Ks]
malpils43 has returned
ibluffheaps: checks
Poka_Face222: bets 3525
ibluffheaps: calls 3525
*** RIVER *** [Ad 9d 4h Ks] [8c]
ibluffheaps: checks
Poka_Face222: bets 6777
ibluffheaps: raises 7437 to 14214 and is all-in
Poka_Face222: folds
Uncalled bet (7437) returned to ibluffheaps
ibluffheaps collected 25704 from pot
ibluffheaps: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 25704 | Rake 0
Board [Ad 9d 4h Ks 8c]
Seat 1: cheezees folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: juliar777us folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Poka_Face222 (button) folded on the River
Seat 5: malpils43 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: ibluffheaps (big blind) collected (25704)

Villain is a good, solid, capable mid to high stakes reg. I have him at 16/13, 6.6% 3b over ~500 hands. I think most of them would have been early game and can't really remember what he was running at on this table but he was more active than the usual 9 max early game stuff obv. I think he'd view me as solid but on the laggier side, especially in position, post ante. This is the first big pot we had got into at this table.
Can villain ever be bluffing here? His value range seems a little thin, but I just figured he had to have it or he was just a level ahead and owned my soul

4 Comments

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David M 12 years ago
the only two hands of his value range that make sense to me here are probably 44 and A8. i would assume that he would 3-bet/induce AA,KK,99,AK,(A9?,44?) pre, especially against you playing on the laggier side, and i think that he probably raises A4 OTT. but i'm not really sure. i'm still very new to tournament poker and thus, i'm not that good in analyzing MTT hands. i would love to hear other opinions...
David M 12 years ago
The other thing, that came to my mind, is that his raise OTR is so small compared to the pot size (you're getting 4,45:1) and consequently, he hasn't got much fold equity if he decides to ch/jam it as a bluff. thats why i think that he is pretty nutted here.
Tom M 12 years ago
Yeah, tend to agree here. If he's good, he knows the price he's laying here and understands that only a 3 barrel bluff is folding. And he probably calls down with a bluffcatcher instead of turning the catcher into the bluff.
GameTheory 12 years ago
Assuming you valuebet AT+ here you are exactly in the middle of your valuebetting range. In theory he is risking 14k to win 19k, so you should defend more than 55% of your river valuebetting range disregarding card removal. Now K9 is one of the worst bluffcatching hands you could have due to card removal.

Clearly he is perceived to 3-bet preflop with AA/KK/99/AK and maybe even A9. So that would weigh his valuerange on the river more towards 44/A8/A4, of which you block none! It is much better to call this shove with AT without a diamond.

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