€1100 UKIPT DAY 1A MAIN EVENT - ABSURD OVERBET SPOT

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€1100 UKIPT DAY 1A MAIN EVENT - ABSURD OVERBET SPOT

BLINDS: 50/100
HJ: 27k

CO: 22k

BB: 17k

HERO CO: Jh Jd

READS: CO 30-35yr old Irish chap, playing a loose spewy style. Playing vey weak ranges and playing poorly postflop, opening and cold calling a lot of off-suit Ax, calling 3bets OOP 75s when ranges should be tight etc. I hadn't seen him get too out of line, nothing absolutely crazy like this.

I isoed him BvB one hand, checked back top pair on K9xdd and he potted two streets with a missed draw but that was the only time in 2 hours of play I had seen anything really aggressive from him.

BB: An older gentleman, around 50yrs old, playing what I would guess was around 75/10.

HJ: RAISES 250

CO: CALLS

BB: CALLS

FLOP: 983r

POT: 900

HJ: BETS 600

CO: CALLS

BB: RAISES 1200

POT: 3300

HJ: MOVES ALL IN 26k approx

The raise from the old dude here was a mis-click. He flicked an extra chip to make life easier on the dealer, which an earlier dealer requested we do but the dealers had changed, floor was called and it was declared a raise.

The old guy seems not best pleased about this and ending up folding out of turn.

I'm interested to hear what people think this guy's range is here.

I think pre-flop he is opening hands like 95s, 97o but I think I think it's very unlikely he just rips those in on the flop.

I do think we beat some of his value range but maybe we are like 40/60 overall.

When I asked him how much his jam was he seemed fairly relaxed.

I was also interested in the math behind the decision here, i'm guessing we have to be right a HUGE % of the time to call here. So if any of the good math guys would have a look it would be really appreciated.

Thanks in advance

 

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