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£110 live MTT

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£110 live MTT

£110 tourney. 2 of the money. I was 2nd/3rd in chips with my stack being close to 175K. I’m in SB with Ad8s. Blinds were 1500/3000

Folds to CO, pretty loose slightly fishy player. who raises to 12.000
Button folds, I CC and BB also calls after tanking for quite a while whether to raise or not.

Flop comes 10h8d4s

I check, BB tank checks(whether to lead or not) and CO cbets for 18K
I decide to call because there are plenty of draws/backdoors for him to cbet on these boards. And the BB folds

Turn Qh. Bringing extra flush draws/straight draws. I check and CO bets 29K.

At this point I am going through his hand ranges, and none of his opening/cbetting hands really connected with this board, the only two apparent hands at this point is AA/KK/QQ. However, I think that AA/KK are becoming a bit scared of this board and a slightly inexperienced player wouldn’t go for the larger betsize to protect but either checkback or make it a smaller bet to be able to checkback on the river. And I think that QQ is unlikely, because I don’t think that he would bet over half pot with trip queens, but more likely to make it somewhere around 22-25K.
Hence the only two realistic hands he can have, in my opinion, are AA/KK and I already block an ace.

I decide to call. (at this point I have around 110K behind and he has around 60K behind)

The river is the A of spades. And I decide to check and he shoves all in for his last 60K.

Now, which hands are left in his range that aren’t scared of this river. The only hand that really got there was KJ and AA. My reasoning to remove AA from his range completely, was because that the BB wanted to raise preflop, he wanted to raise into 2 bigger stacks and personally I think a lot of his range is AK-AQ-AJ-A10-A9 hence so many aces are blocked by him, removing AA entirely of the range of my opponent.
The only hand that is truly left that is not scared of this river is KJ: but would KJ cbet the flop like that? Online, yes, in a very good tournament, yes. But this is a £110 casino tournament in London. The average skill level here is pretty low, which is why I am grinding these tournaments. In this tournament I don’t think he would have cbet any hand but KhJh because that is the only hand that makes sense to play this way. Apart from this? KK/QQ/JJ/1010 all those hands aren’t likely going to value shove, probably just checkback, especially as we are this close to the money.

After taking my time going through all of this in my mind I came to the conclusion that this was a hand that in the long run I would be profitable in. I made the call, and he shoved 99 for a triple barrel bluff.

What are your thoughts of this hand?

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