My friend played this hand and we had big discussion and very different assuming for opponents range in this spot. So i wanted to post this hand here and ask what would you guys estimate for villains range? We are playing 11€ "LaFievre" at winamax.fr. There is 3 players left and stacksizes are roughly something like this. Hero ~50bb, SB ~25bb, BB ~55bb. Hero openraises button for 2.25x with QsQh and gets called by big blind. Flop comes Qc 4d 2d. Villain checks, Hero CBets flop 35% of the pot and villain calls. Turn 7s. Villain checks, Hero bets 40% of the pot and villain calls. River is 3c. And villain goes somewhat quicly all in. Witch is exactly 2x pot sizebet. Hero doenst have any specific reads, except Villain is playing loosish, and will defend BB wide. Villain has also done few similar overbets on river. but those hands did not get to showdown. And those previous river overbets might be done with slightly lower SPR.

My friend was expecting villain to show up with 2pair+ much more often than i did and he also thought that we should be allways calling here with Queens and there is nothing else we can do here than call.

My thoughts were that if villain would be likely to shove here all that light for value. then he is propably playertype who is not balanced and at the same time he isnt going to shove that many if any missed FD'sf for this sizing. I think villain cant have many sets way as played. Becouse he is chipleader and he might put some pressure on us by 3betting some of those pairs pre. And even if he just called he would play 2pair+ most likely agressively on flop turn, given that hes chipleader and able to put some extra pressure on us 3-handed. I neither expect that he would ever overbet this river with weakest 2pair combos. It just doesnt make any sense to overbet river with these hands. I wouldnt even expect him to defend BB with 23, 24, 34 all that much. Q4s, Q3s, Q2s are also likely to playmore agressivly preflop or postflop.

I made EQ calculation where I assumed that villain would go for all in with..

9 combos of missed FD
3 combos of pocket 3's
4 combos of 56s
6 combos of A5o
4 combos of A5s
3 combos of 56o

And Queens end up having EQ 41.38% against this range. I still think this is bit optimistic range for villain becoz i just cant belive villain would take this line and bluff so many missed FD's for this sizing. And its possible that he could have more A5o, 56o.

What kind of range would you give for villain overbetting all in river ?

How much EQ do we roughly need to make this call. Payjumps are getting really big and would still have 35bb after laydown while shortest stack would be 25bb??

Payout looks like this.

€9,665.95
€6,531.80
€4,889.45

Thanks for answers..