10bb reshove w/ KQs vs UTG? Correct move FOR ALL THE MARBLES??
Posted by SenSC
Posted by
SenSC
posted in
Low Stakes
10bb reshove w/ KQs vs UTG? Correct move FOR ALL THE MARBLES??
Blinds: t200,000/t400,000 (8 Players)
BN: 4,073,141 (Hero)
SB: 4,149,196
BB: 3,167,000
UTG: 10,215,180
UTG+1: 2,427,872
MP: 18,658,736
MP+1: 4,584,328
CO: 2,802,788
SB: 4,149,196
BB: 3,167,000
UTG: 10,215,180
UTG+1: 2,427,872
MP: 18,658,736
MP+1: 4,584,328
CO: 2,802,788
Preflop
(600,000)
Hero is BN with
K
Q
, , , ,
Flop
(8,986,282)
9
9
7
Turn
(8,986,282)
9
9
7
2
River
(8,986,282)
9
9
7
2
3
Final Pot
BN
lost and shows a pair of Nines.
UTG wins and shows a pair of Nines.
UTG wins 8,986,282
UTG wins and shows a pair of Nines.
UTG wins 8,986,282
Did I make a mistake for shoving there? Cause it was 37/5129 players left and I wanted to take it down preflop to increase my stack size w/ out having to play postflop. Hoping to play for all the marbles and make the final table, which didn't work in my favour. But is this a +EV play while deep in a tourney?
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Hmmmm I cant ever see this being bad tbh, lets put yourself in the villians position... we are UTG with 10bigs.... what is our shoving range?? I think we can be shoving enough hands to justify calling KQ from the btn for 10bigs....33+ AJos, A10s, KJs, QJs im sure we can fling a few more hands in there, so for me your call is fine....All hands we are doing fine against and some we even out right crush.... + Taking into account when he gets true the blinds and antes he will have 6-7bb and will have almost 0 fold equity so this can be another reason why he can be even wider when shoving.
Oh k makes sense. Thanks for replying!
It all depends on how wide he has been opening. Have you any extra info on the villain? Rfi ufg? Fold to 3 bet stat? I can quite easily imagine him opening very tight utg vs 6 10bb or under stacks. If this is true then this is a mistake. If not then shove is fine.
Ah, he was a reg w/ decent stats
Ditto. Use ICMizer to give villain different ranges: 5%, 8%, 10%, 12%, etc., and see how shoving KQs does in those spots. It's villain dependent here.
True. He had decent stats and was a reg.
Personally, with zero fold equity, I'd just muck and take -EV shoves when folded to if I have to. If villain is opening wide to take advantage of the extraordinarily tight nature of everyone else given so few players are left, then they're adding in all of the suited ace combos. The price they get is too good for them to muck, though they probably should (or just not open with those hands), but I imagine most regs are opening too wide in situations like this one. The pots like 14bb and it costs them 8bb to call, so theyll probably call with all aces, all pairs, and fold like suited connectors that may have been opened.
If villain is opening the correct tighter range (Everyone is short, so its very likely villain has to make a call or fold decision vs a shove preflop) in this spot, then they're likely not folding anyway. This is my intuitive feel after doing a LOT of preflop <20bb study, but it's been a while since I've really brushed up on it.
I remember his hand played previously, and i thought to myself im most of the time ahead of his range so i decided to shove
I'm guessing villain had like AT?
ya if i remember correctly
The more I look, the more I think this a fold. 22+, T9s, suited broadway, A2s+, ATo+, QJo+ is about 18% of hands and probably as wide as they're going to get. They're unlikely to open suited connectors as a steal here because it's SO likely someone shoves all in, even if everyone's being tight (99+ AQ+ alone means they're getting shoved on at least 25% of the time by players behind).
Against that range, KQs has 47% equity, you still have 2 players left behind, and even if you knew they were DEFINITELY folding, you'd be making a slightly profitable all in play. It looks like you'd make about half a big blind. Maybe that's enough. Idk. Your tournament life this late in a shallow stack tournament is huge and you can make money in lots of spots if you study push fold.
Vs most EP rfi ranges 9-15% range its a fold, if they are on the >15% rfi it becomes a +EV. shove
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