Adios amigo!

A couple of things first:

1) This hand is a total trainwreck

2) Why do we want to play 500bb pots versus solid regulars?

3) You're guestimates on your overall (fold)equity are insanely ambitious.

Prelop: There's no need to 3bet here for the reasons you mentioned, because there's so little evgain in squeezing here by later positions, the only thing we achieve here is bloating the pot pre, which is fine w a strong valuehand, but i just don't see the benefits in this scenario, and we're getting very little folds anyway this deep. So the reasons that remain are value and initiative, tho initiative is highly overrated this deep and we're already in position.

On the flop: When he calls your 3bet, you have succesfully narrowed down his range into hands that flop well, pairs that mine sets, and maybe some traps that see very little merit in 4bet blowing you of the hand. This is also the reason why I would prob not 3bet pre, because his range will play pretty awesome versus our actual hand. Anyway, so far so 'good'.

We flop TPTK w BDFD, which is kinda the nuts in general, so cbetting here is obviously good, but then we get check raised. Here's where things become really interesting. On a flop like this, versus a good solid regular, when we get checkraised, we should really be very wary of a couple of things.

1) He's never bluffraising here, at best he's semi-bluffraising QTs here, but this deep i'd assume him to flat your cbet and realise his equity on turns and play accordingly. Same goes w other poss FD's. He should also just call TT, and evaluate turn.

2) His range becomes sick linear. If i would range his checkraise here its: 33/99/JJ and QQ+, i disregard QTs here as stated above.

Now verus that checkraising range, which is valuehands only we have 16.5% equity. So the only way we can realise our equity is our BDFD or a couple of other runner runners. This is just too little overall to continue, and this makes it a mandatory fold for me. Even if there's a 1/100 chance that this guy gets that out of line in bluffraising this flop, I would still just comfortably fold my TPTK here.

Couple of sidenotes:

1) If you want to 3bet, fine, it comes down to personal preference, i just play pretty easy going pre ante and don't want to bloat that much being that deep vs good players

2) I really like the turn jam, however it's like one of the very few times a turn will come that actually gets us in a spot that we can have somewhat of added fold equity.

3) Yes we can rep 99/JJ, again it's just really ambitous, and people just dont fold sets ever.

Conclusion, just fold on flop. I don't want to get involved in 500bb pots vs very linear continuing ranges of solid regs, when there's just too much monies to be made of other spots on the table.

A small ps. The entire dynamics of this specific hand changes when we play oop, i.e. in terms of getting bluffraised etc. Also, i didn't really get into turnplay that much because i'm 100% convinced we should fold flop.

I kinda am not sure you can fold a person who reraised you on flop, 31 percent of the time on the turn, looks to me like very optimistic and not very likely,people simply do not fold sets in MTTs or very strong made hands , as played your hand has still nut outs on turn, and has very low equity against made hand, so i wouldn't mind a call there, because many rivers would slow down the villain - and let you show down the hand , tho as played, unless you hit a spade it is unlikely you would win

Hey suzzezive, welcome to the forums. I am fine with pre flop and flop though I would cbet significantly larger on this board. When you are analysing how much fold equity you need, it is not enough to calculate that you need to win the pot 51% to profit as the pot will be much larger when he calls and you have little equity. To work out the break-even fold equity you need for shoving to be at least as good as folding we can do the following math;

equity of shoving = equity of folding

fold frequency * our stack if he folds + call frequency * equity in pot when called * size of pot when called = our stack if we fold

x*18200 + (1-x)*.20*28500 = 12500....where x is fold freq and therefore (1-x) is call freq

x*18200 + (1-x)*5700 = 12500

18200x + 5700 - 5700x = 12500

12500x = 12500 - 5700

12500x = 6800

x = 6800/12500 = 54.5%

So we can see that for the turn shove to be profitable villain has to be folding to it at least 55% of the time. This is way too ambitious and even 30% would be hard to imagine...what hands is he folding? T8s missed but thats pretty much it. We need to be confident our opponent will be folding a lot of set combos to make this a shove.

With opponent betting 2400 and we have 12560 behind we have enough room to call and play rivers

What if stacks were different, and turn raise of opponent would pot commit us? Would you chose a call or a fold on turn

I think preflop and flop are fine. I think calling the turn is the correct play. I think shoving the turn might be okay in theory but people don't actually fold sets two pair often enough to make it good. In reality you have a made hand that beats all his bluffs and a strong draw and he rarely folds a better made hand. Call turn is the play.

Hi, what a surprise, Im the villain in this hand and remember it perfectly. I will expose my point of view:

Preflop is ok, in first place, I'd think ur 3betrange in there would be strong, so I got good odds to call  I also agree with your reasoning on flop. I think AK we could probably remove it from my x/r range in flop, cause I dont even have the bdfd so that would be a randomness

If you have all that information about me, I think you also forgot to think about my agg postflop.

What I dont think that must be ok is the turn, I dont know why to convert a hand like that one with a lot  of SD value into a semibluff. You have 1 blocker with the As and that improves your move of course, but I still think that the correct play is call turn. As you were the 3bettor, with your move in turn I would think about a range AsK,AsQ, QsQ, TsT,AsA, KJ, KQ and some KK, so I thought that was enough for me to call