100€ 50k Gtd PokerStars - Fold Equity + Pot Equity = ¿EV+?
Posted by Suzzezive
Posted by Suzzezive posted in High Stakes
100€ 50k Gtd PokerStars - Fold Equity + Pot Equity = ¿EV+?
BN: 18505
SB: 17027
BB: 20000
UTG: 16449
UTG1: 27491
LJ: 23570
HJ: 14210 (Hero)
CO: 20000
SB: 17027
BB: 20000
UTG: 16449
UTG1: 27491
LJ: 23570
HJ: 14210 (Hero)
CO: 20000
Villain is 20/16 in 390 hands. 3bet 6% Fto3bet 55%. Call3bet 11% 4bet33%
Raise first 17/32/29/57/57
OR MP: 33-44-66-A9-AJ
Regular of midstakes.
Raise first 17/32/29/57/57
OR MP: 33-44-66-A9-AJ
Regular of midstakes.
Preflop
(90)
(8 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
J
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, LJ raises to 150, Hero raises to 390, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, LJ calls 240
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, LJ raises to 150, Hero raises to 390, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, LJ calls 240
Villain has an open raise in LJ of 32% and he´s moving a lot in this early stage so i think in this situation is better 3bet IP than cold call to avoid a possible squeeze and because he fold more than 50%. Anyway cc could be fine too, i think.
Flop
(870)
J
9
3
(2 Players)
LJ checks,
Hero bets 400,
LJ raises to 1260,
Hero calls 860
Std cbet in 3betpot with top pair and villan check/raise. I never fold this spot, but if i reraise i think i can´t follow if villan reraise again, and vs hands like QsTs/QTo, QsKs, KsTs, QQ, KK, AA(unlikely) and sets i have less than 50% of equity (only vs KTs 49%), so my plan now is bet/call and reevaluate turn with top pair + backdoor nuts flush draw.
Turn
(3390)
J
9
3
K
(2 Players)
LJ bets 2400,
Hero raises to 12560, and is all in,
LJ calls 10160
Here is the crux of this hand:
Villan bets strong (70%) so here I:
A) Fold. Maybe the most common line, but I think it´s so much weak.
B) Call. I have 8 outs for nuts flush draw, 2 outs for trips and 3 outs for double pair. At the end, i only have 7 solid outs, for the nuts flush draw. Trips and Double Pairs not guaranteed me has the best hand at river, only a strong hand with showdown value.
C)Reraise. I don´t like because If Villain shoves, i would have a very difficult decision, most of the times having to do a call with a weak hand and a draw.
D) Reaise Allin: This is the option i thought. And here is my reasoning:
My hand has 20% of equity vs sets, 25% vs AK, 15% vs QTo and now i can discard KsTs, QsKs, QsTs (unlikely). So i value a 20% of equity for my hand, from turn to river. I decide to shove because I believe that I have more than 31% of Fold Equity. If this is true, my move is EV+ because at less, 31% of the times I will win this spot when villain folds, but the times villain call, I will will 20% of the times.
In my consideration I think he more than 31% of the times he will fold hands like TT, QQ, AJ, AK AA, and sometimes bottom sets like 33 (at first, for the possibility I would have a better set and then for the texture of the board and the stage of the tournament with very deep stacks). So i hope he call with JJ, KK, and nothing more, because the only draw he can have here is QsTs, improbably and he will never fold.
Villain tanks 2 minutes and finally calls.
Villan bets strong (70%) so here I:
A) Fold. Maybe the most common line, but I think it´s so much weak.
B) Call. I have 8 outs for nuts flush draw, 2 outs for trips and 3 outs for double pair. At the end, i only have 7 solid outs, for the nuts flush draw. Trips and Double Pairs not guaranteed me has the best hand at river, only a strong hand with showdown value.
C)Reraise. I don´t like because If Villain shoves, i would have a very difficult decision, most of the times having to do a call with a weak hand and a draw.
D) Reaise Allin: This is the option i thought. And here is my reasoning:
My hand has 20% of equity vs sets, 25% vs AK, 15% vs QTo and now i can discard KsTs, QsKs, QsTs (unlikely). So i value a 20% of equity for my hand, from turn to river. I decide to shove because I believe that I have more than 31% of Fold Equity. If this is true, my move is EV+ because at less, 31% of the times I will win this spot when villain folds, but the times villain call, I will will 20% of the times.
In my consideration I think he more than 31% of the times he will fold hands like TT, QQ, AJ, AK AA, and sometimes bottom sets like 33 (at first, for the possibility I would have a better set and then for the texture of the board and the stage of the tournament with very deep stacks). So i hope he call with JJ, KK, and nothing more, because the only draw he can have here is QsTs, improbably and he will never fold.
Villain tanks 2 minutes and finally calls.
River
(28510)
J
9
3
K
J
(2 Players)
Final Pot
LJ has
3
3
Hero has
A
J
LJ
wins 28510
This is my first hand in our forum, thanks for all the feedback. :)
Loading 17 Comments...
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.
This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.