What's your worst run below EV?

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What's your worst run below EV?

What's your guys worst run below EV?

Last summer I ran 45ish buy ins below EV - Wish i still had the graph but it's on a now dead laptop.

I've heard of some PLO regs having 100+ buy in down swings.. anyone come close to that?



49 Comments

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Tom Coldwell 10 years, 11 months ago

Back in the good ole days (before FT got shut down), I ran ~120 buyins under EV over about a 50k hand stretch of 25 Rush PLO, netting a mere 1 buyin profit. Not a downswing per se, but it's a long way below EV!

NocturnalX 10 years, 11 months ago

Impressive that you could still fetch a profit despite running that much below EV. Is that why you don't enjoy playing Rush/Zoom and prefer the regular 6max tables?

NocturnalX 10 years, 11 months ago

Ok. Yeah, those were the days. We need to get the yanks back in the game. :P Southern Europe and Asia would also be great additions. 

NocturnalX 10 years, 11 months ago

Not even close to a 100+. I'm currently at 44 buy ins below, but I think that is bad enough. Hope it'll swing back around. I'm just dreaming of the day where I go above the EV-line. It's kind of like I am running like Arsenal when I comes to penalty-kicks. I'm not getting what I should and I would LOVE to run like Liverpool, right Tom? :P 

I'm just messing with you. :D If anyone deserves a PRL-title it is Gerrard. Even though I'm not supporting Liverpool you can have nothing but respect for the guy. So congratulations on what should be a sure thing once you take out Chelsea at Anfield today.

nickski444 10 years, 11 months ago

Ouch... If Liverpool throw it this year it's going to be so hard for them to get this close again with Manchester United, Man City and Chelsea - no doubt all spending silly amounts of money in the Summer.

Savage run guys :/ - PLO players must have some real mental toughness to take that sort of run and not tilt hard.


flash2717 10 years, 11 months ago

It's amazing to hear how bad you can run at any given time.  I think that's the biggest misconception of inspiring poker players is that if your good you will crush your opponents 90% of the time.   In fact if you win around 55% of your sessions your probably beating the game pretty good.  I dread the time when I run this bad bc the worst I have ever ran was around 30BI below EV.   I'm such a noon I guess.

Moonwalker 10 years, 11 months ago

Graph of April, game is NL25 zoom

Didn't play much due to mid-term exams. Got straight As so good run at exams. But hell I ran like shit in poker. 28k hands and ran 18.5 bi under ev. Miss those days I played live in my homeland China and never had a losing month or even a losing streak in 2 years. btw anyone can offer me some help regarding my other thread? http://www.runitonce.com/chatter/zoom-winrate/ Appreciate any useful information


lettu 10 years, 11 months ago

Just checked, 83 buyins under EV from 1.1.2013 to this date, all holdem and mostly 6max. Good thing is that Ive ran better in bigger stakes, so not too much under in terms of $.

Still shows that variance can be very hard at times.

randa 10 years, 5 months ago

only kidding that was a glitch real graph below, anyone else had insane bad runs on winamax ir has everyone seen a run like this? i found the support very bias to there french players so was scared they favoured there own with the software too....

porshy 6 years, 10 months ago

Im running 130 buy-ins below EV over 190k hands...
Ok, my EV winrate is only 2.5bb/100h.
Running bad has influence on the game and also I had to find another job, because I needed money:) So more than 100k of these hands was I only invested 50% of the time in the game.
We all know that you have to be in the game 200% to be really profitable.
Only 55k€ below EV, no biggies :)
And I'm 100% that I'm better than 2.5bb/100h. Ofc RB included then I'm at 8.5bb/100h or sth.
Its just, in EV calc is not included when they have top set 4 times in a row in a 4bet pot...
And yeah, it smoothnes out in a long run in theory. Well, not excatly in this particular pratice case.

But still, running this bad gave me motivation to become better. And also, my mental game is now like, really, I'm a fuckin superman now with mental game. To go through this kind of a downswing and become stronger. Last couple of months, I have like EV 10bb/100h or a little more. And white magic is also important. When you are still and clear, you can soulread people over the internet.
To go though this and not blow up. Downswing is lasting 15 months now... Day after day , hand after hand, you lose allins:) Its crazy. There were 3 occasions when they had 1 out in all the 190k hands. And they hit the 1 outer 3 out of 3 times from turn to river.
Now, I feel so alive and good actually. I can play so better. So I was saying to go through this and not blow up, sometimes just makes me wanna cry of acomplishment and of a mentally stronger person that I have become. Also much better player than I was...
So everything that happens to you, if its bad, its oppurtunity to grow. To evolve, to become unbreakable and your happines not being influenced on outer events...

porshy 6 years, 7 months ago

Damn .. this is crazy..
prelast month 5k below EV, last month 30k below EV.
I'm now alltogether 165 buyins below EV since year and a half (when I started playin 1/2 or higher). Basicly every session Im below EV.

Is there any tool that also measures how good/bad you flop? More precise measurment than All-In EV? Just wondering since I get outflopped in 4 bet pots like 95%. And then Allin EV says you put in money bad.
Does that mean that life wants me to do something else or what...
I'm like putting all the hours in for basicly nothing...And it doesn't look like its gonna stop. Next year I'll be 250 buyins below EV etc... Its standard.
Don't know excatly what to do except be poor:) Its 80k€ below EV but thing is, this can go on and on easily.. Year and a half divergence. And after couple of months I thought "it will change". After half year I thought "it will change". After a year I thought the same. After year and a half and its just the same and its just wont turn no matter what.
Day after day is the same story...
I guess my destiny is to be poor, thats all I can do. Accept my fate...

porshy 6 years, 7 months ago

I'm just updating 185 buyins below EV.
Any1 of you imagine what stakes you playin, substract 185 buyins due to "bad luck". Any1 of you running above EV like 20 buyins?. Substract 205 buyins.
And also EV line is bullshit. If winings can deviate so much from EV easily EV line does not prove anything significant without observing how well you flop in lets say 4bet pots when there are easy shoves and can be max 10% equity (paired boards). How many times have I got set over set, and when calling villain hits quads and we get it in on any later street. This is just ridiculus.
Ye the theory says it smoothens out right, if they flop set in a long run I will too against others. Well not in practise. This is just insane. At 200 buyins below EV I just might stop playin and because I'm broke and I don't see point in reaching 300 buyins, 400 buyins 500 buyins below EV. Whats the point.

I'm so curious if any1 is developing more precise way of measuring luck than the all-in EV. It should be in a sense each street calculated seperatly, your equity and how much money you put in.

StreetSpirit 6 years, 5 months ago

It'll never stop unless you stop playing poker. It's just the reality of this game; You will lose money due to variance.

I'd probably take a significant period of time off and re-evaluate my situation if I were you. Changing to a different site/games probably wouldn't hurt your mental state either.

porshy 6 years, 4 months ago

Hey thanks for advice:) Can't stop playing when I'm crushing them.
Honestly, mentally I have never been stronger.

Cory Mikesell 6 years, 7 months ago

PLO is a helluva drug

Kyyberi 6 years, 2 months ago

At good old Full Tilt, played PLO25 for one evening. EV winnings +1$, real winnings -$1000. That was a nasty few hour session.

Last year I had a project of playing PLO2 among normal games. I had a feeling that I haven't won many flips, and when I checked the Tracker it was 60 buyins under EV in about 10K hands or so. My feeling was quite correct. :D

Deactivated User 6 years ago

When you guys are running that bad, what motivates you to keep playing? You're only losing money. How can you continue to play when it's only costing you $?

Deactivated User 5 years, 11 months ago

Jesus, though guys - 100+ BI's below EV? That's just absurd. These are huge sample sizes, too. I just don't understand how someone's supposed to win if they run that bad and then inevitably, I wonder what we're playing for.

porshy 5 years, 11 months ago

I was running 240BI below EV. About 123k€ in cash terms.. Im still about 230BIs below:) That is sick.. Like 2 years and 2 months, thats 26 months of running bad day after day week after week:)
More than 1mio hands

Deactivated User 5 years, 11 months ago

porshy And yet you feel like it's still worth it to continue play? Why - what you should be able to achieve sometime down the line? Not a loaded question - seeing some of these bad runs (massive understatement, ofc) has me feeling less depleted by my own. I've never run anywhere near that bad.

Deactivated User 5 years, 11 months ago

I guess the simple answer is that you enjoy playing. This is where I started out again 2 months ago and as stated - I won several hundred dollars immediately at no higher than 20nl. Hit 25nl and 50nl and I got a very rude awakening regarding BRM and variance. Move back down to 10nl and 20nl and the wins just don't feel the same. I would imagine I'm not the first to walk this same path. After reading these posts, working with variance calculators, and confronting some extremely difficult off the felt spots in the last 24-48 hours, I feel different. One of my favorite movies for years has been "The Hustler". I saw that again this morning before I even took the beats I posted about. With @Kalupso talking about self destruction and playing about 800 hands so far with a just play mentality again, I feel much better.

I'm not greedy and selfish until it really comes down to it. Not when there's 500 "widgets" in the room but when it gets down to 1 valuable one and 3 parties feel entitled, I don't think you'll ever find more entitlement than you do out of me. I don't really care what I have to do, I'll do it to get that 1. I don't especially like this about myself, at all, but it is me. I've changed a ton of things in my mind and heart over the years but this one, I'll never change. I don't like seeing other people succeed. I am seeing how much of a leak it is to let emotions from that selfish competitiveness factor into decision making and I'm also seeing from what you're posting and my own experience at the tables that it's ok to lose. It doesn't mean you're a failure. Not playing, or not playing with a focused, dedicated mind is failure. Losing with 80% equity is not.

As you see - I'm still working.

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