What stats constitute a good defense of your blinds?
Posted by scubatim84
Posted by
scubatim84
posted in
Gen. Poker
What stats constitute a good defense of your blinds?
Title says it all. I'm analyzing my poker play over last 46k hands and noticed some interesting facts. Let me know if this sounds correct, as I've just recently started really learning the filters and delving into graphs, so I really have no clue what's normal and what's not.
For my overall graph, my red line is taking a horrendous, suicidal "life isn't worth living" plunge off the abyss downwards. My blue line is climbing upwards steadily like a determined hiker at Mt. Everest. As is obvious, Mr. Red is pulling Mr. Green & Yellow downwards and it's making kittens cry. I know 50k hands is not that much, so to provide some context, I'm running terribly and have been for quite some time. Not all of the run bad will be reflected in the yellow line either because a lot of it is running KK into AA, having terrible run outs like a set of TT on a TJQK runout in a 3B pot, etc. Anyway, my point is that the red line looking so ugly could simply be a symptom of runbad but I did want to explore whether it's something else that can be corrected.
When I actually voluntarily enter the pot, I'm not doing so bad, and don't seem to be getting bluffed out of a ton of pots judging by my red line moving sideways and everything else is trending up. I'm assuming from this second graph that my play itself is not the issue. According to Snowie I usually operate at the higher end of "Expert" and more typically "World Class" with the occasional "ET" playing level. I get that GTO is a god awful idea for say Bovada, but I play on ACR, so I think it's quite useful here since most players are thinking regs. I just adjust to an exploitable strategy when playing a pot vs. a fish.
To get to the bottom of this, as I'm now suspecting it may be the blinds that are the culprit, I ran another graph that strictly looks at my results when in the blinds whether I voluntarily entered the pot or not. Looks pretty ominous.
One last thing I wanted to check was to see if it was whether I was playing bad in the blinds or if I'm just giving up the blinds too much. I admit all of these graphs suffer from sample size issues, since the overall sample is only 46k, and all of these are 3-5k hand samples obviously. Still, doesn't look that terrible when I actually choose to enter the pot.
Lastly, just to confirm that the problem is isolated to the blinds, I ran a graph for the other 4 positions and confirmed that unsurprisingly when given position bad things don't happen.
So my question is two fold. First, does it indeed seem like from these graphs that I'm giving up my blinds too easily and just folding them too much? Is the problem that simple?
Secondly, what should be the goal here? I know we're always going to lose money in the blinds and that's what is making me wonder if there is even a problem to address. Of course our red line is going to look ugly thanks to the blinds and especially when looking only at the blinds. But how ugly is ok and how ugly is not? I know this is really a "it depends" answer, as it depends on the site, the games, our own playing style, our villains, etc. so I'll provide some background.
For the site, I play on WPN exclusively for 6-max and right now 10 and 25 NL...rebuilding after running horrifically at 100 NL on Bovada and deciding that I'd rather have rake back for stability than more fish. I know this is itself a very incendiary topic with lots of opinions on whether its better to be a fisherman, or to play for rake back and get better by playing better opponents, so let's not digress down that road. My playing style is TAG about 22/18 and I am trying to adopt a GTO approach so that I can't be exploited since the guys on this site are very laggy and they love to make the most retarded bluffs I've ever seen. Along those lines, most villains I'm playing against are a mixture of lagtard spew monkeys, good TAG players, mediocre LAG players and some fish who also seem to be pretty aggressive.
So OOP we definitely want to tread carefully here given the aggression of the site, and I know we can call a much wider range if villain min raises vs. a 3x open, but I'm just looking for some guidelines on what I should be looking for when analyzing my blind defense to see if it's sound or not. Thanks guys!
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Redline like:
bluffing, bluff-catching and thin value betting...
all thing it looks like you could work on.
On WPN your playing against allot of regs you should be able to get this close to break even playing a std TAG style. Stats would be allot more helpful to analysis your game.
Screen shot positional stats
I play on Bov and lose sleep at night about my red line ;D
So in for the thread...
The useful stats are fold BB to CO, BTN and SB steal. Including open raise size will increase the accuracy. Correct BB fold to steal (aggregate of BTN, CO and SB) should only be a little under 60%, but exact value depends on open sizes and rake.
I have noticed another thing that kills your redline. High CB OOP and high check-fold turn after missed turn CB
Great comments guys, please see attached for stats. That graphic is hilarious btw lol but so true.
Yeah my fold to steal is definitely way too high then because it's slightly over 70%. I see a mixture of open raise sizes...mostly 3x with a few min raises from the sharper regs.
So far I think I have been folding too much because I'm thinking "oh, I'm out of position and everyone plays like a nit on this site so it's ok" but this data really illustrates that it's not ok.
Very small pic.
You can try this instead: https://gyazo.com/
japanese ppl usually have smal pics
Yeah I was afraid of that. I already have an account on photobucket so I just used that.
Photobucket link of positional stats
need to get them 3-bets stats from SB/BB up... that will help a real lot
You are folding way too much too steals in BB from CO, BTN and SB. Against 2,5x open you should only fold around 65% vs CO, 50% vs BTN and 30% vs SB.
This is a good starting point: http://www.pokersnowie.com/preflop-advisor.html
The 3betting range is a little bad, but the calling range is fine. You can call much wider vs people opening wider or to 2x.
And for SB what would be a decent defense? and values vs CO and BU?
Fair enough. I was thinking I was probably giving up my blinds too easily but guess this confirms it. FYI the preflop advisor actually contradicts Snowie sometimes, so I have discontinued using it, but I can run a scenario where CO, BTN or SB opens to analyze the range it thinks I should call with. More commonly I see a 3x open though but I see what you're saying.
A little less than half of their raise first in is good for linear 3bet. About half if you call and 3bet.
So I dialed down from 15 to 12 tables since it got to be too much defending my blinds with over 12 tables and I did notice a big increase. 4k hand sample so puny but since 3/22 my Fold to SB open is 30.5%, fold to CO open is 58% and fold to BTN open is 48% for a fold to steal stat of 46%.
For SB I am stealing 58% of the time...opening range depends on the fold to steal stat of villain. If they fold 90% of the time I'm opening very wide, 50% of the time I'm tightening up to CO range or whatever, etc.
However my fold to CO open is 88% from SB, 85% from BTN and 86% fold to steal stat...almost all of my range I 3-bet from SB so I'm assuming this is reasonable right? I only flat pairs and hands with good potential in SB like suited broadways...some of those I 3-bet too sometimes such as KQs and AQs.
Sick change!
Quality > Quantity
You should probably work on your flop play vs steal as well to get maximum winrate improvements.
+infinity
Use to RB grind and have slowly moved down to 4-tabling.
Still would like to add two more at some point
Yeah if you can get in say 60k hands per month mass multi tabling 15-20 with a win rate of say 2bb/100, that means you're getting 1200 BBs per month. If you can only get in 40k hands say 10-12 tabling with a win rate of 4 bb/100 that's 1600 BBs per month assuming both WRs are net of RB. Most likely the difference would be bigger than that anyway but yeah it's definitely a balancing act between not having enough tables and having too many.
I think that's part of why I was screwing myself in the blinds...I play pretty well post flop, so when I was choosing not to defend my blinds to get in more tables, I was just sacrificing a ton of EV.
i doubt its problem that u dont def BB enough . It wont be the reason why r u losing player, if u r one... its deffo about that postflop play that u feel so solid about
If you actually read the thread before posting, you would see that the guy is winning a lot when he defends his blinds and is doing well from all other positions.
Not defending your blinds is a massive leak and can impact win rates in the several BB/100 range.
I have a hard time believing anyone can be a winning player on Bodog w/ a positive red line below 200nl, at least 100nl
100nl
http://i1122.photobucket.com/albums/l522/seke1/100nl%20july_zpsyxie2ybe.png
wack link bro :P I click and nothing happens
Red line beast!
Very impressive
K, I'm super curious what your preflop stats are. WP though regardless. I just feel like I get stationed super hard in a lot of spots and have a really beast blue-line at least lol.
July? How is it now?
Or did you move up?
I was at work when I looked at thread, so just posted one of my 100nl graphs I had on photobucket. I'm playing 100nl still, but I also have hands at 200nl. I'd say as my game develops my red line has been trending downward a bit more.
Basic preflop stats over this 200nl sample for vpip/pfr/3b is 30.58/23.16/9.05
dat blue line tho, it dont come for free :D
What do you think is the biggest contributing factor to your red line?
My preflop stats look very similar to yours, and my red line goes down and blue up.
wow
never see something like that.
I don't have a big database, when I look at the stat of other reg in my game nl100 on ps.fr no one have a positive red line.
very impressive.
Would you say than you make your opponent fold more often than other reg or than you put less money in pot before you fold ?
I bluff too much and call down too light. I also 3b and squeeze a lot IP, defend my blinds like its my job and fight for every single pot even if its 1bb fi I think it's going to be profitable.
dem bro ken defend everthang, cal teh poleeece
here is 25nlz on bovada too. I go and grind this all the time since it always runs. I just play for fun to begin with so I like this stake, so this kinda has hands in all my skill levels and also a lot of spew since when I was playing higher I'd drop down to this when I tilted. This defo shows + red line is possible at lower stakes with a good winrate.
small sample bro-kun
I believe a + red line is very possible below 200 NL on Bovada specifically...very weak regs and the fish are just lol easy. Too bad most you can get in is 250 hands/hour.
Reg tables I think so, seems fairly hard on zone IMO cuz you could pull a Ryan Fee, raise flop and four barrel and get instasnapped by 3rd pair for 200bb
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