What stats constitute a good defense of your blinds?
Posted by scubatim84
Posted by scubatim84 posted in Gen. Poker
What stats constitute a good defense of your blinds?
Title says it all. I'm analyzing my poker play over last 46k hands and noticed some interesting facts. Let me know if this sounds correct, as I've just recently started really learning the filters and delving into graphs, so I really have no clue what's normal and what's not.
For my overall graph, my red line is taking a horrendous, suicidal "life isn't worth living" plunge off the abyss downwards. My blue line is climbing upwards steadily like a determined hiker at Mt. Everest. As is obvious, Mr. Red is pulling Mr. Green & Yellow downwards and it's making kittens cry. I know 50k hands is not that much, so to provide some context, I'm running terribly and have been for quite some time. Not all of the run bad will be reflected in the yellow line either because a lot of it is running KK into AA, having terrible run outs like a set of TT on a TJQK runout in a 3B pot, etc. Anyway, my point is that the red line looking so ugly could simply be a symptom of runbad but I did want to explore whether it's something else that can be corrected.
When I actually voluntarily enter the pot, I'm not doing so bad, and don't seem to be getting bluffed out of a ton of pots judging by my red line moving sideways and everything else is trending up. I'm assuming from this second graph that my play itself is not the issue. According to Snowie I usually operate at the higher end of "Expert" and more typically "World Class" with the occasional "ET" playing level. I get that GTO is a god awful idea for say Bovada, but I play on ACR, so I think it's quite useful here since most players are thinking regs. I just adjust to an exploitable strategy when playing a pot vs. a fish.
To get to the bottom of this, as I'm now suspecting it may be the blinds that are the culprit, I ran another graph that strictly looks at my results when in the blinds whether I voluntarily entered the pot or not. Looks pretty ominous.
One last thing I wanted to check was to see if it was whether I was playing bad in the blinds or if I'm just giving up the blinds too much. I admit all of these graphs suffer from sample size issues, since the overall sample is only 46k, and all of these are 3-5k hand samples obviously. Still, doesn't look that terrible when I actually choose to enter the pot.
Lastly, just to confirm that the problem is isolated to the blinds, I ran a graph for the other 4 positions and confirmed that unsurprisingly when given position bad things don't happen.
So my question is two fold. First, does it indeed seem like from these graphs that I'm giving up my blinds too easily and just folding them too much? Is the problem that simple?
Secondly, what should be the goal here? I know we're always going to lose money in the blinds and that's what is making me wonder if there is even a problem to address. Of course our red line is going to look ugly thanks to the blinds and especially when looking only at the blinds. But how ugly is ok and how ugly is not? I know this is really a "it depends" answer, as it depends on the site, the games, our own playing style, our villains, etc. so I'll provide some background.
For the site, I play on WPN exclusively for 6-max and right now 10 and 25 NL...rebuilding after running horrifically at 100 NL on Bovada and deciding that I'd rather have rake back for stability than more fish. I know this is itself a very incendiary topic with lots of opinions on whether its better to be a fisherman, or to play for rake back and get better by playing better opponents, so let's not digress down that road. My playing style is TAG about 22/18 and I am trying to adopt a GTO approach so that I can't be exploited since the guys on this site are very laggy and they love to make the most retarded bluffs I've ever seen. Along those lines, most villains I'm playing against are a mixture of lagtard spew monkeys, good TAG players, mediocre LAG players and some fish who also seem to be pretty aggressive.
So OOP we definitely want to tread carefully here given the aggression of the site, and I know we can call a much wider range if villain min raises vs. a 3x open, but I'm just looking for some guidelines on what I should be looking for when analyzing my blind defense to see if it's sound or not. Thanks guys!
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