They day NL holdem becomes beatable...

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They day NL holdem becomes beatable...

So was thinking about this the other day and although I believe there to be way too many intangibles for the game to be beaten. Would be safe to assume that the closer we get to a "beatable NL game" that in theory a 5nl player would be able to confidently play at 500nl "as long as he has the bankroll to support it" without feeling the difference of player pools? For example if we put the stakes into tiers 5nl 10nl 25nl 100nl 200nl 500nl 1000nl, in the past the difference of skill level to move up in stakes were huge, but in present day the skill levels are much closer than the past with slight adjustments to ranges and aff. As we press on into the future the skill level should gradually reach an equilibrium, where the game at all stakes should be playing at the same skill level right? 

Random thoughts, ignore or flame if you will lol.


14 Comments

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R0b5ter 11 years, 8 months ago

Think you are right about the skill level between the stakes getting closer. But there is still the human factor such as "scare of the moneynat higher stakes, gambling feelings etc" that will be a barrier for achieving a perfect equilibrium.

R0b5ter 11 years, 8 months ago

Also I can add that I've been playing multiple stakes ranging from NL100 to NL1000 for years. Player skills are merging towards an equilibrium somewhat but I've always felt that there isn't as big as a differnce between the stakes as some people seem to believe. Sure the best players at higher stakes are better than the best players at lower stakes but a lot of regs at lower stakes would do perfectly fine at higher stakes if they just had the roll and the mental aspect of not "feeling" that everyone is better than them and notplaying scared money. And as I said some of these issues will always be around in poker.

Even look at this forum there are micro stake players that are giving just as good answers about posted HH as mid stakes players. So the theoretical skill difference isn't as big as some seem to think, all in my oppinion of course. 

Nom de Guerre 11 years, 8 months ago

saying poker has been solved (i.e.  skill level more or less being equal across stakes) implies a black and white situation.

players (even those who are either serious hobbyists or pros) have differing levels of understanding of how to play the game..  nearly everyone has leaks or has had to deal with things like tilt that may affect quality of one's play.

are games post black friday as juicy as they were ten years ago?  of course not and that sucks to a certain extent, but i would think that the fact there are pros out there today post BF proves it is possible to still be profitable (whether poker is profitable enough is a different question)


Buddho 11 years, 8 months ago

" where the game at all stakes should be playing at the same skill level right? "

To this to be true it should mean that an NL5 player plays/learns/works as much as the Nl1000 player, but for 100-200x less profit. I dont think that will be the case. The more effort you put in the higher stakes you should be able to play for more profit.  Past times  when the game was new, with very few good player, lots of weak regs/fishes poker become attractive for ppl because the effort was small compared to the reward. Now it is more balanced and goes toward equilibrium, it is not that easy to make money, the system becomes more "just". I dont think that a new player will be willing to put in an infinite amount of effort/stress/study  just to beat NL100 for shitty money.. it is easier to work in a "mcdonalds".  So in conclusion i dont think that skill level will be close regardless of stakes.

R0b5ter 11 years, 8 months ago

Good point Buddho. I'd like to add though that what is in fact a lot of money or what one thinks is a nice effort contra reward is very individual. A person in say Kazachstan may think it's well worth the effort to put in a massive amount of time to master NL50 whereas a banker son in NY may not think it's worth the effort even if he was making 100 times more.

Buddho 11 years, 8 months ago

Yes it is partially true, but keep in mind in poorer countries they dont have the infrastructure a lot of the time(internet), or even a high-school education which makes it more difficult to master poker. 

R0b5ter 11 years, 8 months ago

So I guess that might partly explain why a lot of the mid stakes have gotten dominated by eastern european players or old Soviet republics. 

TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

A trend that i've been noticing is, (Russia,Germany) are two countries with high player pools. Yhe players from these countries  plays exceptionally well in poker(at least the ones that i've played with). Is it due to the Educational background from their countries? Some kind of correlation?

vanity02 11 years, 8 months ago

Didn't players back in 2009 use to bash on Russians for their crazy play style? I remember a pro was saying something about how the games were always good if there was a russian at the table or something along those lines.

R0b5ter 11 years, 8 months ago

Yeah, I remember Sbrugby stating that as well. The russians were generally weak players a few years ago. Now very much the opposite imo. Guess it took them a few years to study the game :)

Tom M 11 years, 8 months ago

Yeah, lots of eastern European locations used to be goldmines.

Now the new goldmines are places like Korea and China.

I think eventually the fish just all go broke and only players who are average or better remain after a time. The trick is following the new poker markets and demolishing the whales before others beat you to it.

themightyjim 11 years, 8 months ago

the reason the games at lower stakes will always be better has less to do with how good the good players are, and more to do with how many/how bad the bad players are.  To be a mid-high stakes grinder you not only have to be rolled for the games, but you have to be good enough to win in tough games since often you'll have one semi-fish at most per table.  You also have to have the mental discipline to focus on decision making and not cash.  Some call it a degenerate-like disregard for money, but in reality it's just an ability to quiet emotion and focus on analysis and decision making regardless of stakes. 

Because of these ancillary factors (along with the natural weeding out of weaker players as well as the obvious incentive to improve) I believe that in most cases as stakes increase the average skill level of the regs also increases.

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