Successfully tamed?

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Successfully tamed?

The month of january where I was all over the place:
http://i.imgur.com/WyVzWa6.jpg

My March so far, after a 6k day yesterday :)
http://i.imgur.com/ZzufsqZ.jpg

All 100plo

obviously there is a helluva lot of variance involved, but there is a pretty stark difference in the sd/non-sd lines hehe

Here's a pretty sick hand I played earlier as well, will hopefully appear in a hand history review session in the future :p

http://weaktight.com/5596848

12 Comments

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limpinski 12 years ago
Do you think you red line should be flat/slightly upward, or is the game just such that it is allways going to be somewhat downward sloping? Off course under the restriction of winning.
Sam Lang 12 years ago
I think the main reason its like that is that the games play hyper aggressive and I was not the most aggressive player at the table anymore. Many different styles of play can win and how we want to play optimally depends largely on the players. That said, I don't think how I used to play was very close to optimal, I was a spewy LAGtard at times which lead to having a high redline. I really don't care or pay attention to it though, just focus on playing well and make optimal decisions and maximise your winrate, adapt to situations etc. In some lineups my redline is gonna be super high, in the deep anti games with some of the players there it won't be the case.
fitzroy 11 years, 11 months ago
In light of this post on 2+2 about how only 3 out of 25 of the highest volume 100plo regs on stars actualy made money, do you guys still think 100plo is profitable?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/153/high-stakes-pl-omaha/no-money-plo-everyone-raked-1315665/

Looks like you are still making it work, Sam...congrats on your March.
WM2K 11 years, 11 months ago
I wonder what the same sort of analysis would look like for nlhe. Its pretty well known that only the top few % of grinders make any significant coin before rake deals because of rake. Everyone else is losing, b/e or ever slight winners. Obv doubling the rake is going to do something though.
WM2K 11 years, 11 months ago
Good Job!


http://weaktight.com/5596848

However I don t get it. Please explain.
secondhander 11 years, 9 months ago

I may be wrong and dumb, but my thoughts ...

Preflop 3 bet is a no brainer.

On flop, check is standard. Raise by villain has a high percentage of being a bluff a lot of the time, or a Jxxx. So the x-raise represents a Qxxx. Not much of another way to win the pot, and this would be read-defendant and I'd think a x-fold would be right a lot of the time against certain players. 

The call is unexpected and interesting. A QJxx would not likely bet the flop. A Qxxx with good kickers may raise instead of call, although he may still call, fearing hero has QJxx. 

I think the only hands that lead the flop and call the raise here are Qxxx, Jxxx, and sometimes JJxx, although I'd think we'd see a re-raise from that on the flop a good portion of the time. 

So I think villain usually has Qxxx or maybe a thin bluff-catching defense with Jxxx. When the K comes on the turn, villain now is worried about QJxx, Qxxx with better kickers, QKxx, JJxx, ATxx, and KKxx. 

So, with all that I think we have to continue, because it's too disgusting to give up on the turn here with all that we can rep while at the same time opponent is unlikely to have QJxx, JJxx, KKxx, ATxx. He might have QKxx, but that's a chance you might have to take.

Now, the bet sizing I'm not sure about. Seems like if the read of Qxxx or Jxxx is right, then there is so much we can rep that he hates that he really can't call even that much. He's either going to have to push, which he hates to do given our range that has hit big hands, or fold. So we can make a cheap, smart play, and then finally give up on a call/raise. 

If my understanding of the hand is right (big if?), then it seems like a beautifully well-played hand.

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