Struggling with downswing
Posted by camikaze007
Posted by camikaze007 posted in Mental Game
Struggling with downswing
Hi there, been on a downswing since October 2017, I've only had 1 winning month in that time even though I am 95% sure I am a winning player (probably around 3bb/100). I am down about 45BI (36 below AIEV) at NL5 over 130,000 hands in this time. I want to put in more volume but I will not allow my results to be skewed by tilt so as soon as I feel tilt occurring I stop playing, however this means that I can't put in the volume to break out of this downswing. I played today for the first time in 2019 and was playing very well, then in the space of 100 hands I lost set over set twice, set vs straight AI on the flop and lost 2 pair vs rivered flush AI on the turn. I got tilted and immediately sat out the next BB but this meant that even though I was playing my A+ game I only put in 800 hands today. I never used to get tilted easily and i've had plenty of breaks but the variance is soul crushing and every time I play a session I have to stop after 1000 hands. My goals for 2018 were to be a winning player at NL50 (was at NL10) and now I am stuck in NL5. My goals for 2019 are to be a winning player at NL25 and play at least 200,000 hands this year. Any tips to handle large swings? Avoid tilt? It's not about losing $5 it's about the time grinding micro stakes that that represents.If I ever move above the AIEV line I might have to pinch myself.
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If what you want is to skip micros asap, then play less and study a lot more. No one should spend more than 100k hands at any of microstakes levels
Whilst this is true I do study a lot and there's not a lot you can do running 36BI below EV besides play more. I wouldn't be at this stake if I ran close to reasonably
You should get out of this mindset asap. Its not variance's fault you haven't moved up. Its yours.
You are 9bi down in EV over 1300000 hands, which means that in a best case scenario you are a very marginal winner at 5nl. 5nl is an insanely soft stake that can be beaten for very high winrates. So the reality is that you are still playing bad poker, and as soon as you face this, the better for your development and the sooner you will be able to get out of those stakes.
Yes, there is. First you can start by not caring about things out of your control, such as variance. And then you can start focusing on thins you actually can control, which is your performance at the tables. You will get out of your situation much faster by doing that than trying to put more volume.
"5nl is an insanely soft stake that can be beaten for very high winrates"
Sounds like you're quite out of touch with the micros these days. I'd also work on a way to make comments without coming across as patronising. Thanks for the comment though.
Not really. I was playing micros myself not too long ago. Sorry if it sounded like patronising, wasnt my intention
Saulo already said most things worth saying on this topic. I would add that the only thing you can do to reduce variance is to increase your winrate (just another way to say what Saulo already said I guess). Swings that you face with a low winrate are more brutal than swings that you face with a high winrate. You can play around with this variance calculator to get a better grasp on what variance can look like.
And yes, quality over quantity. The biggest mistake I ever did was grinding 4 tables of zoom for way too long with a low winrate and a slow learning curve.
Your results are not 'skewed' by tilt, instead they are inseparable from it.
This, imo, is the key delusion you have to get over. You are not 'good at poker, except that I either tilt or can't put in any volume', instead, the skill of 'poker' IS the ability to play well and do so often.
If you can't play well and often, then you are not good at poker.
I don't say this to deject you, rather to get you to face reality. The separation of technical and mental game is a falsehood, in the same way scientists spent centuries trying to work out how 'energy' moves 'matter' whilst forgetting that it was only science divided them up in the first place.
Once you see reality, the way forward will be much clearer.
Yeah lots of tough love here but thats exactly what we need to hear at some points in our life. Face the reality of things and do not get locked into mindsets like "have to play more" etc. Relax, do something different like getting coaching from someone, ask to get some input from friends or others that play similar stakes.
Get out of the mechanical point of view and try to develop your imagination and creativity and you will turn this around.
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