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Signs of Over-Confidence?

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Signs of Over-Confidence?

For me, lack of self-confidence is actually a good thing in poker. It makes me study and work more to improve my game.
Things change when I have had profitable days and nothing can stop me. Today I realized it, I had a losing day after a long winning streak. I am sure it is because of over-confidence. I played way too loose (I am still at low stakes), also I tried too advanced moves against clueless fishes, and it went against me.

Tell me what other signs there are that tell we are playing too confidently? Mainly I need information about differences between HUD stats.

2 Comments

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Samu Patronen 3 years, 8 months ago

I had a losing day after a long winning streak. I am sure it is because of over-confidence.

Don't read too much into daily results, those are mostly determined by variance.

I'm not exactly sure what "playing too confidently" means. One (and only) thing that comes to mind is that we overvalue our assumptions about how the game works and/or how our opponents are playing when we're actually just wrong or missing some major piece of the puzzle.

Adrian Milroy 3 years, 4 months ago

You're likely getting sloppy because you're winning. Eventually you'll kick yourself when the variance turns against you and you won less than you could've during your hot streak.

I don't think this can detected easily, or at all, through your HUD. I'd start by analyzing your big-medium pot hands at the end of the day. People tend to be bolder when they're more confident - so perhaps making too many river calls, or too many multi-barrels bluffs or river bluffs. You have to go through your own database to find these leaks to stop yourself.

Confidence is key in poker to execute your strategy repeatedly and without fear. Humility (and not lack of confidence) is what keeps a poker player hungry and working to improve.

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