Probability Megathread

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Probability Megathread

Math (and poker) geek here, mostly into combinatorics and discrete probability. If you have a probability question, fire away. Doesn't have to be poker/gambling related but I expect most will be. (Also, this shouldn't only be my thread, others can answer the questions too.)

Note: try to be as specific / unambiguous as possible.

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WHPH 10 years, 10 months ago
What is so awesome about fractals?
mandelmonk 10 years, 10 months ago

Lots of things! They have non-integer dimension. They have infinite detail, a fractal is like an "inner universe" because you can keep zooming forever, always finding new details. Infinite perimeter despite finite length and width. Seemingly unpredictable complexity generated by simple deterministic rules. Accurate approximations of nature.

Tom Coldwell 10 years, 10 months ago
One example is coastlines - we have no idea EXACTLY how long the UK coastline is because of fractals (although we can just ignore them in reality by simply drawing a line around the UK and ignoring the intricacies).


mandelmonk 10 years, 10 months ago
Turbulence, weather, white noise, human lungs, various plant life, lightning bolts. And then basically anything that isn't a perfect smooth shape (e.g. the aforementioned UK coast) can be approximated by fractals, which is why fractal image compression (pioneered by Michael Barnsley) is effective. Besides image compression / enhancement, you can generate all kinds of graphics with comparative ease using fractals.

Fractals even seem to occur in the stock market. Not to the extent that the movie Pi would have you believe, but there nonetheless.
Mushmellow 10 years, 10 months ago

Any quick math tricks for calculating pot odds on the fly and also the slightly trickier implied odds calculation?

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 10 months ago

any out you have you can approximate by 2% and each street gives you one chance of hitting it

AQ x AK AIPF

3 queens help you = 3 x 2% = 6% x 5 streets = 30%

It is pretty rough but valuable in game playing. Implied odds have to take into account a lot of other stuff that I don't see a reason to start to calculate it in game. I rather just do it in my reviews.

Also a math guy here, we may chat on private ? I'm planning on doing some stuff on GT/Bayesian GT for RiO.


Mushmellow 10 years, 10 months ago

Thanks Raphael. In game, implied odds are useful for calulating whether you should call a draw on the turn. You look at your opponents bet size and also if you hit your nut draw then the average amount of money you will get on the river.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 10 months ago

I'm pretty sure that it is important but a rough calculation can lead to a lot of mistakes. That's my point here. I think implied odds play better on a whole street game than one street, for example the turn. Your x/c range OTT is more 2nd pair/draw heavy and without a good read on tendencies calculating implied odds can be a waste of time and don't will improve your decision a lot, considering that you need to calculate something that is conditional to a river bet. In HU probably it is more relevant since you have a lot of more stats on river frequencies than usual cash/mtt games. 

Assuming that we don't donk that often OTR after x/c OTT, if we have a fd OTT and have to decide if to x/c or x/f. Adding 2 outs to flush draws and one to open enders are fine in terms of implied odds but again, it is too rough to change your decision or not. 

This guy made a while ago a video/spreadsheet on this but in game I don't like to use it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jAlIsrfUJk

https://docs.google.com/previewtemplate?id=0AuG8Qqqo9hkydFJUMHVoMmQ4WlJpMkQ4YUg4RHA3RUE&mode=public


J.J. Arroyo 10 years, 10 months ago

There is something that determines the time Ev gets to their expected result (positive in most cases) or is kind of natural random behavior of repeated actions (raises,All ins,calls,etc)?

mandelmonk 10 years, 10 months ago
The actual results approach the EV as the number of trials increases. If you plot deviation from EV vs time, the graph zigzags above and below the x-axis forever, but the zigs and zags begin tall and get flatter and flatter.
The number of trials required depends on how small you want the margin of error to be, and on the desired level of confidence for that interval. Khan Academy explains that stuff much better than I can. You can also get a feel for the time by playing around with the binomial distribution.
J.J. Arroyo 10 years, 10 months ago
mandelmonk so in few words with a less margin of error on each trial the time to get to the actual results will be reduced?
As I understand, higher level of confidence is a human, lets say "stat" when execute this trials will produce a less margin of error?
So, confidence measurement intervals are based on trials margin error, right?
Binomial distribution? I havent listen something about that but I ll take a look when I got time.
Hoping for your answers please.... Thanks


mandelmonk 10 years, 10 months ago

The higher the confidence you want, the more trials you need. The smaller the margin of error you want, the more trials you need. What you end up with is a confidence interval, e.g., "Our polls show, with 95% confidence, that 56 +/- 1 percent of voters favor Candidate A."

You might also be interested in hypothesis testing.

In poker, there's no practical use of knowing "how long the long run is". However, on a somewhat related noted, you might need to know your risk of having a downswing of a certain size, which is calculated using your winrate and variance. This archived post from some other forum (not by me) provides an excellent explanation of that.

As for binomial distribution. Maybe you flipped a coin 100 times and got 60 heads. Assuming the coin is fair, what's the probability of getting at least that many? That's a binomial distribution question. If you change the question to 600 heads out of 1000 flips, the answer will be substantially lower.

Daniel Rainey 10 years, 10 months ago

i know from MOP we can calculate the optimal river bet sizing given how often we are beat...BUT ID love to see an equation that can do that on the turn. Ive heard its been done but is very calc heavy and cumbersome. 


mandelmonk 10 years, 10 months ago

I'm only just learning the game theory side of poker myself, so I can't help ya there. Applying game theory to the Turn is indeed more complicated. It's talked about in Janda's book Applications of No-Limit Hold'em, and volume 2 of Tipton's book Expert Heads Up No-Limit Hold'em. I don't know if the answer to your question is found in those books because I still have to make time to read (and digest) them.

DanDanDanDan 10 years, 8 months ago

Bit of a random Q, but given the billions upon billions of other stars in the universe, can we feed this into any mathematical equation that tells us with any degree of confidence as to whether alien life exists? Like, of course you can argue that there's no way of knowing, but intuitively if there were only 100 other stars in the universe, then it would be much less likely than the 100,000,000,000,000,0000 there actually are or whatever, no?

DanDanDanDan 10 years, 8 months ago

Edit- ^ like Bayesian stuff or something?

mandelmonk 10 years, 8 months ago
Not that I know of. Intuitively, given that there's life in our N=1 sample, one naturally assumes that the probably of a planet having life isn't something crazy like 1 / 10^50. However, our sample has total selection bias. As lifeforms, it's not like our sample is a random planet; our planet can only be one with life. So the fact that Earth has life means almost nothing.

We don't know enough about biogenesis to know how probable or improbable it is on a random planet (it could be 1/1000 or 1/10^100 for all we know), and we lack a good sample of planets. If on a given planet it's 1/1000 then yes there are definitely aliens. But I don't think we have much clue what the probability of life on a planet is.

Tom Willetts 10 years, 8 months ago

What is the probability that a PLO hand is badugi, double suited, 2:1:1, 3:1 or monotone in each of the following situations:

1) No assumptions

2) It contains no pairs

3) It contains 2 pairs

4) It contains exactly 1 pair

5) The first 2 cards you look at are different suits.


What is the probability that a PLO hand contains exactly 1 pair given that it is:

a) Single suited (including 3:1 and monotone)

b) Double suited?

Thanks, enjoy!

mandelmonk 10 years, 8 months ago
Edit #2 -- omg careless mistakes everywhere (1b, 1c, 1d). Fixed.
Edit -- Ok, fixed #1a and #2a now that I know that "badugi" means "rainbow".

For each question I'll break it down into parts a, b, c, d, e.

1a) Pr(rainbow) = 13^4 / C(52,4) ≈ 10.55%

1b) Pr(2:2) = C(4,2) * C(13,2)^2 / C(52,4) ≈ 13.48%
(edit: forgot to square the 78 before)

1c) Pr(2:1:1) = 4*3 * C(13,2) * 13^2 / C(52,4) ≈ 58.43%
(Edit -- 4 choices for which 3 suits are involved, but then also 3 choices for which suit is the double.)

1d) Pr(3:1) = 4*3 * C(13,3) * 13 / C(52,4) ≈ 16.48%
(Edit -- 4 permute 2 not C(4,2) because 2 choices for which suit is the triple.)

1e) Pr(monotone) = 4 * C(13,4) / C(52,4) ≈ 1.056%

2a) Pr(rainbow | no pairs) = Pr(both true) / Pr(no pairs)
N(both true) = 13*12*11*10 = 17160

Explanation: N(something) means "number of ways for something to happen". There are 13 possible ranks from an arbitrary "first" suit. Then since we don't want pairs, we only pick from 12 ranks when picking from the next suit. And so on.
It's not C(13,4) (picking 4 ranks with order not mattering), because order of suits matters -- it makes a difference which rank is which suit.

N(no pairs) = 52*48*44*40 / 4! = C(13,4) * 4^4 = 183040
answer = 17160 / 183040 = 3/32 or 9.375%

2b) Pr(2:2 | no pairs) = Pr(both true) / Pr(no pairs) = N(both true) / N(no pairs)

N(both true) = C(4,2) * C(13,2) * C(11,2) = 25740

Explanation: Similar to 2a. There are C(4,2) possibilities for the 2 suits involved. There are C(13,2) possible rank combos from the "first" suit and C(11,2) for the "second". The product of C(13,2)*C(11,2) partially counts order. It counts the 3 ways to put 4 ranks together into groups of 2 (the groups here being the suits), and it counts the 2 ways to order those groups. So it's 6 times as large as C(13,4), which can also be obtained by multiplying C(13,4) * C(4,2).

Answer = 25740 / 183040 = 9/64 or 14.0625%


mandelmonk 10 years, 8 months ago

2c) Pr(2:1:1 | no pairs)
N(both true) = 4*3 * C(13,2)*11*10 = 34320
(It doesn't matter where you put the "choose 2"; you can put it 2nd or last e.g. 13*12*C(11,2) equals the same thing.)
answer = 34320 / 183040 = 9/16 = 56.25%

For the rest of the problems, I'll just keep expanding this post.

2d) Pr(3:1 | no pairs) = 4*C(13,3)*30 / 183040 = 18.75%

2e) Pr(mono | no pair) = 4*C(13,4) / 183040 = 1.5625%

3a) Pr(rainbow | 2-pair) = 1/C(4,2) = 1/6

Consider one of the pairs. The other pair can be any combination of suits. The only valid combination is that of both other suits. That's 1 possibility out of C(4,2).

#'s 3b and 3c = 1/6 for same reason

#'s 3d and 3e = 0 because can't have a suited pair


Sirocko 9 years, 8 months ago

Hey, this seems like the thread to get some answers to a game where there isnt much info. Looking to get some more info on Badugi.

I wonder how many different startinghands there are total?
The reason I ask is because I wonder how many of those are Badugis A2xx etc..
Lets start there & a have a some follow-up from there.

Hope someone can help out I would appreciate it.

Thanks

Sirocko 9 years, 8 months ago

I actually just found this out on my own, but if there is someone still around in this thread, lmk, I have some follow up questions regarding the numbers I found

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