Good luck!

Please make a video out of it :-)

Good luck! 

Wow, gl Phil! 

Rooting for you obviously despite Blom being a fellow Swede. :)

If it wasn't a Sunday morning here and I'm headed out with the kids I'd be railing this for sure.

Good vibes sent! GL! :-)

Just got up in the middle of the night because something felt weird.  I knew why after reading this post, haha.

Good luck, Phil! 

7GARGAMEL7 (Observer): Pooof! Gandalf the wizard appears

Good Luck Phil, looking forward to some HH reviews from this session please :-)

I haven't railed something for a long time, but this is totally worth it. Good luck, Phil ;)

God help Viktor… He is gonna need it!!!

Turn it around, Phil.  You can do it!

Not working yet guys.  Sweat harder please :)

You are a true gentleman! Your fairness concerning the timeout of Isildur1 is highly appreciated.

WB to tables, time for turn around good luck.

great match been watching on and off since start

What's the score? Can't get into highstakesdb. :-(

Phil G plays 7 card stud vs Phil I that would be a sick one. 

Good luck Phil. Haven't railed a match like this since 2009 haha

good luck galfond!!! crush him!!

Watching this on my hotspot wifi now, I can't even recall the last time I railed a match this hard.  Screw data fee, what's $50 when I can rail $300/600 all day long.

Seems like you are turning it around, vamos! 

You may have lost 500k, but you still have more than 500k.
So you're better off than all us.

I hope you get your money back vs Ilsidur (don't beat him up too badly), then bust all Hansenhunters and opt. out nits.

Good luck!

You have to be sensible when losing a lot: Play higher and bluff more.
Ouch, the shit is going down. Nearing a million. :(

Even sicker to think Isildur still wouldn't have gotten back half of his latest downswing, if he were to quit now.
But it is awesome to see him play you, Phil. He's said he thinks you're the best PLO player in the world.

It's hard to watch at the minute, hope you can turn it round Phil!

Anyone care to update? I'm on my cell and dying to know it they are still playing and roughly who's winning?

GL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6xLYt265ZM

Don't give up, PG! Continued best of luck and ~~~~~good vibes sent your way. 

Good luck, phil. 

shake it off kid

How and where can I watch this??? Or not possible living in the us?

Someone plz help

fucking sick phil haha my best advice is to get a blowjob. unlucky 

so fucked up when you think about it. 1.5 milly. fucking hell

Damn he's down 1.5M now. On the upside, Isildur will keep playing PLO until he loses the money again.

Let's not be results oriented guys. PLO heads up has a lot of variance (I think) especially when you are battling against tough opponents.

Chin up, Phil. You might be a lap behind, but the race is far from over! You'll get him next time and the time after that. :)

Wow, strong dedication from Phil to put 1.5 million on the line to make some exciting videos for RIO!

Hopefully we will see more nosebleed action in the big bet games, lately action is looking kinda tight.

phil should play 50k/100k games in macau to win it back :D:D:D:D

no worries, you ll get it back during month, meantime can focus on improving your skillz how to hit a runner runner ^^ :)

Unlucky Phil! You have some heart for continuing to play him when things weren't going your way. Can't wait for you to play Viktor again

Tough luck Phil, me and some other RIO members were following most of the action and it was just painful for us to watch all those flips :(  

The result notwithstanding, mad props for taking it in stride despite getting hit by the cold deck.  We all learned so much from both you and Viktor, not only about how you played well but also about how you kept playing well for that long.  

As for the loss, this isn't something I can comment too much on, but I only hope you will get it back soon.  I believe it should just be a matter of time.  For now, take some well deserved rest and come back with a refreshed mind!

is there anywhere to see a replay of the action? someone please tell me they flipped on camtasia and caught some of it?! link plz...

pray & wait, pray & wait

 don't know if this will work its the link

http://www.highstakesdb.com/live-results.aspx ok last try think this is right one

and sorry about result Phil do a ben and take it all back. after sm time off going for victor on his A game at least you will get action from him. you of all people ,I am sure none of us doubt, will have the mental composure and ability to bounce back from this and come out on top.

good luck

Followed this all day while chatting with fellow PLO players on skype. It was an amazing railing experience. Hats off to both players! :-) 

I think most of us here had hoped Phil would crush, or at worst lose a little, but poker doesn't work like that. Especially HU. Sometimes it's just brutal, and this was one of those days for Phil.

But that's fine! Because playing well through losing streaks makes up so much of a strong player's edge. We can only speculate, but based on the past, it's not unreasonable to assume Isildur would have lost more in Phil's shoes.

So thanks to Phil for an entertaining Sunday. I hope variance treats you more gently in the comeback I expect you to make very soon. :-)

All in EV doesn't tell you that much, imo.
Most of the cooler spots don't appear on your graph, even though your opponent would have lost just as much.

Isildur is just an awesome PLO player, and nobody will easily beat him.
Only Bttech, Phil and Ben are willing to play him at deepstacked nosebleed PLO, I think.

Phil got bent over and fucked hard and the fact that most people on phils site find it hard to define who is better at PLO leads me to belive isildur is better since the subcribers on this site have irifutable bias 

I dont think you understand the semantics of that word :) your statement is incomprehensible. thicky thicko 

Partly true. All in EV actually does say a lot. No not set ups but still how you are running when all in. And since the all ins are the big pots it actually will say a lot. IMO it says more than your bottom line (I basically only look at all in EV except at the end of the month). Of course if there was a way to include your whole luck profile that would be better but.

I'm curious how Phil thinks he played. If he thinks he played OK then it is obviously much more likely to just be variance. Losing 1.5 mill at 300/600 is what, 25 buy ins? Obviously that is a lot to lose but over a 12 hour 4 tabling match stacks are going to fly around. We saw it previously with Isi vs Ben. If Phil comes out and says he played bad then it probably means Viktor just played better on the day! Obviously both players are phenomenal so its a pleasure being able to rail a match like that. Phil and Viktor will have the best idea of how they were playing and running, its always hard to speculate because, as we know, stats don't always tell the whole story!

Galfond got outplayed while running 400 k above EV. Simple as that. It is funny to see how fans of this site are doing anything they can to try to downplay it. 

Galfond is an awsome pokerplayer but I believe he is not evolving like his world class opponents are, 3 millions downswing is not just variance. He is breakeven since januari 2009 and has lost 3 mills since may 2013 according to highstakesdb.

The "digging gold in klondike" days when Guy Laliberte donated tens of millions USD at the nosebleeds tables are over and only those who evolve all the time will be able to stay at the top.

lol, I am a hater because I have an honest opinion? I am sure that Galfond do not care what I think. As a matter of fact I am convinced that you guys are the only ones who cares. 

Like I said, we can only speculate. Maybe he would have tilted, or maybe not, but it's harder to play well from behind.

Well, you said that you were railing the whole time and speculating with other PLO players. So you don't want to speculate openly on who was outplaying who based on your impression and discussions?

Galfond got outplayed while running 400 k above EV Galfond is an awsome pokerplayer but I believe he is not evolving like his world class opponents are, 3 millions downswing is not just variance. He is breakeven since januari 2009 and has lost 3 mills since may 2013 according to highstakesdb.

Last time I checked it was breakeven since the relaunch, and +1.4M since on Pokerstars.

Now filter out the draw games and you have even more awesome results.

Phil will care more that he dosnt beat the game rather than the money lost. unlucky

Listen guys..Phil Galfond is an intelligent person and I would not be suprised if he can become a mensa if he would do the test, he is also worth millions of dollars, AND he is a succesfull business man, plus he is very well liked in the poker community and he is still a better pokerplayer than almost all persons living on this earth.

Do not worry about him, he will be fine.

i dont like him now he has been defeated though

What a joke.  Railbirds from HSdatabase, who have no more than a vague clue about how poker out to be played (much less actually had any kind of success at it), speak with such certainty about something that is way over their heads.  Doesn't it strike you as odd that those guys have never had success in poker but voice their opinions so strongly, as if to convince themselves?

Pathetic.  Kicking a guy down who has done more than any poker player in helping others learn the game; being the first to record his nosebleed sessions at the highest stakes (knowing he is exposing his game to his opponents), answers consistently & honestly in these threads (and in Bluefire in the past), constant high quality videos, all while charging 100 a month.  And now you want to degrade him because your lives are lived on the sideline as spectators.  You guys are a fckn joke.  Mostly kids anyway, or underdeveloped due to the internet boom where you no one can see you when you make the most absurd & outlandish (not to mention ignorant) claims. 

It's very simple.  he had a losing session after not playing PLO regularly at those stakes how long? Against a high variance orientated guy?  Like you guys even know what makes someone a great poker player, not to mention being one of the best, where a handful of guys are only willing to play against you.  When you guys, who speak so certainly of his ''downfall'' are even in the vicinity of something of that sort, I'd be glad to hear what you have to say.

He hasn't progressed, huh? Why is it then that all the top pros watch his videos and keep up to date with him?  Everything I've read above indicates people think that. I suggest that your name says it all, particularly about how much respect your opinion merits

HAHA phil will hate the attention and sympathy hahahah this is too funny. Everyone is so pathetic. I was trolling earlier. Phil came from a $50 deposit online. Its rude of everyone to speculate how he feels and financial situation but then again most people involved in poker a rude degenerates with cheesy ritz cracker bell ends + sweaty grind gouch. Makes me feel ill how all these cheesey ritz cracker bellends are so obsessed with the success of other because they're lives are so futilely brutal. Get out there make a name for your self sweaty degens.

Hey Everyone!

Thank you for the support.  Obviously, not one of my best days at the table.

I didn't expect and "drama" over here at RIO, but I've been playing online poker and reading 2+2 for about 10 years now.  I'm used to it :)

Viktor and Sauce are the two toughest opponents I've ever played at HU PLO. Losing 15 buy-ins to an expert is nothing to be ashamed of.

Was I outplayed?

To be honest, I don't know.

It's the first time I've gotten HU nosebleed PLO action in a very long time.  (Over one year, I believe... and actually the session I'm thinking of was against Viktor at 300/600, and I won a little bit more than I lost to him the other night.)

I had been playing a while, and it's very likely I drifted away from my A game as the session went on.  This is pretty normal when losing in a HU match at any game.

That said, I've had sessions where I've looked back and said, "Wow, Phil- You were playing badly," and this wasn't one of those sessions.  

It wasn't a session I thought I played exceptionally well.  There are sessions like that too, where you feel as though you just played above the rim.  Where you knew what your opponent was going to do before he did it every single time.  This was not one of those sessions either.

15 buy-ins is not much, especially w/ mandatory 3x against someone as aggressive as Viktor.  Even on my A game, I don't believe my edge against him is large, if existent at all.  I'd been confident before this session, as I more often than not got the best of him, but given that one session changed that means I probably was a bit too results-oriented with that confidence.

Like I said, I don't know if I was outplayed, but it's certainly a possibility.

I've done no review of the match, but I believe I lost the most money in two spots:

-Turn folds in 3b pots

Viktor takes a line very consistently after 3betting.  7200 on flop, leading to a 25k PSB on turn with around 25k behind.

Obviously, on boards conducive to it, I call the flop with a lot of slowplays to get stacks in great on the turn.  I can't remember this happening more than a few times over the course of however many hands we played, which means I wasn't nailing enough of these flops.

I also need to call with a lot of my marginal hands, getting 2.5:1 and the implied odds of a reasonably likely 50k turn shove.

I felt as though I was calling a fair amount of flops and folding to his turn shove a tremendous amount of the time.  I don't know whether I was making mistakes folding (meaning I had 40% equity + vs. his range with some of the hands he folded, or that I had more FE than expected, as he did fold this spot after potting one or two times) or I just continually missed my 11 two pair+ outs and gutter/bdfd type of stuff.

If I review the match, this is the spot I'll look at most based and try to figure out if my strategy in this spot was dominated by his.

-River Calls/Folds

This is normally my strong suit, but I feel as though I didn't win nearly enough of my river calls vs. his shoves in large pots.  The frequency at which he was barreling and shoving river (or betting in the 20-50k range) was so high that I am confident he had a lot of bluffs mixed in.  

That said, he either was outguessing me as far as when to bluff and when not to, or I was running very bad in these river call spots (or a combination of the two).

I slowplayed plenty of hands in order to pick off these bluffs and light value jams, but he very often gave up in those spots correctly or had me coolered.

It might be the case that he was hitting a lot of hands that could value jam, and that's why his river bet frequency in those huge pots was so high.  It might also be selective memory, and he was playing more sane than I realized, which explains why many of my calls were incorrect.

------

All that said, the point is that I lost ~15 buyins at HU PLO and that it's nothing to dwell on.

What's funny is that this ~1.4m loss came after a 900k loss (two day) and a 1.3m win (two or three day) this last week.  It just felt a lot more real when it happened in a day.

I didn't intend this post to be a personal blog, but rather a dialogue with those who supported me, mostly to let them know that I'm doing just fine, but I feel like it's about to get a little bloggy.

Instead of thinking too hard about the match, I've since been dwelling on the idea of exposure.  The fact of the matter is that I've continued to expose myself to swings like this with no very good reason for it.

I don't need to push thin edges at nosebleed stakes.  To be frank, I don't need to push any edges at nosebleed stakes.  Even a large one exposes me to losing larger chunks of money than I should be comfortable with.

I've been hardened to swings after years of this, but I sat back yesterday and thought to myself: What is my goal?

The truth is that I love to compete in the biggest games and against anyone.  I love to prove to myself that I can do it, and I love to win the large amounts that can come along with it- I think it adds a certain 'wold conquer-y' feeling when compared to winning 20 buy-ins at 25/50.

In some way or another, I enjoy it.  Call it competitive drive or call it a penchant for gambling - the line is very thin.

I don't seem to have any sound logical reasons for playing bigger than I should be- at least none that I wouldn't realize I'm creating out of thin air to support my cause.

When I say playing higher than I "should be", I mean a couple of things:

First, that most bankroll rule systems would very clearly require that I don't do it.

Second, that the risk-reward scenario is massively skewed.  Winning a large amount won't be life-changing for me, but losing a large amount would.

I need to do some soul searching, because as far as I can tell, what I want and what is good for me are two different things.

I decided to hold off on playing big for a couple days while I think it through.  Out of habit, this morning, I checked the games as soon as I woke up.  There are currently some excellent games running.  It hurts me to not be playing in them right now, and that's something I need to resolve.

I need to figure out where that push is coming from, because as of now I don't really know.

But, as others have said - I promise that I'm doing just fine.  My life is great and I'm a happy guy.  I truly appreciate the support and that many of you guys were feeling for me during and after that match, but don't worry about me or feel sorry for me.

Maybe if all of you tell five of your friends to sign up for RIO I can start making some good money here to support my gambling habit :)

very nice post :)

Good luck with your decision.

Galfond. Since you are referring to me it seems like you are suggesting that it was me who did not agree to others having a different view or an unpopular speculation. If my understanding is correct, I do not agree with you at all. It was not me who attacked your fans, it was they who attacked me.

It is important that the members of an open community can speak their mind and share their honest speculation or view without being berated or having to read that other members wants you to die like Aleksandra Bozic posted she did. It is very weird that her post about wanting me to die has not been deleted by moderators by the way.

Anyhow, I am convinced that you have one of the best pokerminds in the world. And IF you have lost the edge vs the top 5-10 players in the world I am sure that you will get it back again if you set your mind to it. After all, you have several times said it yourself, you are not working on your pokergame as much as others do and it is not easy to stay ahead of the pack while putting in less work than they do because they of course have great minds too.

I was out of line really with that comment and I'm sorry, at the moment i saw your post and opinion that i disliked to point i didn't want to comment or answer to and i was angry and , not smartly i wrote what i felt at the moment , which i regretfully can't take back but only apologize to you and phil for making this thread what it is not suppose to be

ofcourse :) wil do asap

Maybe if all of you tell five of your friends to sign up for RIO I can start making some good money here to support my gambling habit :)

Phil. Just want to make clear that not once have I written "silly fanboys", if you believe so you must have missread or something.

I did by the way flag her post as inappropriate and M Bigfiszh who is a mod read her post without doing anything about it.

GOOD LUCK

Phil never really thought much of you (unopinionated) until I joined RIO and appreciate the community you've provided. For that I will say a few things...

 You lost 15 buyins,  to anyone that plays heads up knows that means you got a little beat down but stuff like this does happen from time to time. The fact it happened at nosebleeds makes the 'beatdown' look worse then it actually is.

Viktor crushes dreams. You are not the first person to feel a bit dejected from playing Viktor heads up. When he runs pure and you can't seem to win its probably a humbling experience. A lot of world class players (for nl specifically Kanu and Jungleman) all suffered nasty dips in their graph from playing isildur at one point or another. 

One thing I'd like to mention ...Viktor seems to have a pretty good strategy for 3x preflop in both NL and PLO, I don't understand why you would want to eliminate strategic options just for his benefit. If he really wants 3x preflop anyone playing him should probably do the opposite. Find out what he likes the least (playing to a minraise?, to much smallball) and shove it down his throat. Viktor does tilt and I am sure this match could have had a zillion different outcomes, however, with that said, when the match really doesn't look be to going your way you need to be careful if you are going to play him at nosebleeds versus say 1/200.

Haters gona h8. Lucietta- I don't see why you keep posting itt. I mean clearly you voiced your opinion but then you continue to posts and I am not sure what points you are making but you come off across as a bit trollish and attention seeking . But its a public forum so enjoy and get off all you want. 

With edges being as small as they are, swings are going to be a lot bigger than 16 buy-ins. Phil has said in the past, Viktor is one of very few people he is not sure if he has an edge on. If there's an edge for either player over the other it's probably not more than 1bb/100. Anyone who knows a thing about variance should understand how ugly the swings can be. This is not even a bad one. 

I admire Phil for taking Viktor's action. It takes heart to battle him at 4 tables for so much money, so in that sense, I have a ton of respect for him regardless of the results. He is willing to put a lot of money on the line to play one of the best in the world, and while that may not be a wise financial decision, brilliant Poker players like Phil don't come by being nits and denying action.

Viktor Blom is an amazing, possibly genius Poker Player. It's funny that someone would consider berating a player for dropping 50BI vs him, let alone 16. I'm sure over the years Phil and him had small edges against each other, and edges shifted back and forward as they made adjustments. Some of you probably don't understand how close this battle is. And because of variance, none of us ever gets to see the bigger picture. So stop acting like you do.

Both players are the best of the best, and they both think the same things about each other. It happens that one of them is teaching us Poker and the other one doesn't. It's pretty natural for us to be rooting for the one that does. 

I joined this site because of Phil. I am not here to discuss his game-selection. It's only his poker prowess that I'm here for, and he delivers it time and again. If I were his wife, I'd tell him those 1.5 milllion swings are unacceptable, and ask him to choose between me and Viktor. As a Poker Enthusiast, I wish this would go for as long as possible...and that he gets the upper hand.

phil, will you marry me ? i'll let you have your swedish boy-toy on the side

Hey Phil,

First, I would like to say that I have alot of empathy for you; which is a bit weird as I don't know you personally, yet this session took away from me any desire to fire up my poker clients in the last few days.

After reading your aftermath post, I would like to share some of my thoughts.  I know you are smart and have good connexions in the poker world, so while this mignt not be anything you haven't tought about, maybe it will get you to reconsider options that you did not deem to be for you before:

Food for thought:

Isildur1- Highstakesdb lifetime results: negative $2.1 million. (Stars and Full Tilt)

OMGClayAiken - Highstakesdb lifetime results: positive $8.3 million. (Stars and Full Tilt)

Phil playing on PS @ 25/50 ante deep. Good to see he is back on the saddle!   (Edit: and zoom 50/100 )

trondeez, I couldn't agree more.  I see Isildur as someone who likes to boost the pot preflop (to a point that he will deny action to good players who won't 3X pre) and then will bet draws on the flop- bet draws ott - and shove rivers.  This obv. destroys any player when he runs good and actually hits; but also explains the systematics downswings after his big wins.  I usually don't voice myself much about it; because I don't like to be flammed and I understand why his fans love him (readiness to put it all on the line/agression/playing everyone/self made/very high bluff frequency, etc; but I am not part of the ones who think he is a genius.  I would definitly have him as beeing -EV for a long term stake. 

Yes, I forgot to add the pokerstarsgames. It does not change much though. 

Galfond had a huge upswing in the Laliberte era, in 2008 and beginning of 2009. But since then, from april 2009 until today, Galfond has played about 750 000 hands and lost 800 000 usd according to highstakesdb. This is when the Pokerstars winnings are included.

So 750 k minus, in the last 5 years minus one month period of time according to highstakesdb.

Still fantastic total winnings that I would sacrifice my left arm to have though.

Yea, your numbers are correct and so are mine. The samplesize you chosed showed him winning 1. 3 millions usd in almost five years,  that is like 25 buyins over about 700 000 hands played.

Of course I have never claimed that Galfond is bad or anything, I just believe that he no longer is in the top of his playerpool at the stakes he plays. If you win only 25 buyins in five years time and 700 000 hands played (from the samplesize you choosed), or if you lose about 15 buyins (800 000 usd) in last 750 000 hands (from my samplesize), it does not seem like you are in the top of your playerpool to me.

Also, quoting other pokerplayers does not say anything about skill level. Antonius for instance has said that Galfond and Dang brothers suck at PLO and that even Gus Hansen is better than them. I would not take his word for it though. Neither should you take Blom:s quote for being a fact of reality.

@Ivey  Its like you said in 2006:"Boston Celtics is not within top NBA clubs, as they did not win Championship since 1986."

fyi

I like comparisons - thats why I put this ilustration, although it's not perfect one...

Leaderboards:

We can see that Galfond tops All time PLO earnings leaderboard:

- on FTP

- on Stars

- combined

which also makes him unique from that point of view.

Also, on Stars in 2012 - Galfond won >2M USD in PLO and tops PLO leaderboard on 5th place.

On Stars in 2013 - Galfond won >250K USD in PLO and tops PLO leaderboard on 9th place.

For the end:

http://www.pokernews.com/live-reporting/2013-world-series-of-poker/event-52-25-000-no-limit-hold-em-six-handed/

Sapienti sat

Yup! Galfond has a total winnings of 4, 8 millions at PLO that is correct. 4, 5 millions of them was at the year 2008 though. The same year when Laliberte donated 17 millions usd.

This means that Galfond has won 300 000 usd in the last 550 000 hands he has played in PLO, which of course is about 6 buyins.

What is important to understand is that having a whale donating 17 millions of dollars to a playerpool makes it very lucrative for the best players. Not only because you will win money from the whale but also because the whale will attract other medium good players that take shots because they want a peace of the pie.

Most of the money that Laliberte donated ended up in the best players accounts one way or another at the end. And 5-6 years ago Galfond obviously was one of them.

Nope, he played both PLO and NL and he lost huge amounts at PLO the year of 2008. I believe more than 8, 5 millions usd. It does not matter though, I do not disagree that Galfond was a top five (at least) world class player 5-6 years ago.

http://www.highstakesdb.com/results.aspx?Site=&GameType=2&top=20&period=2008

ZenFish 

"You seem very knowledgeable. Can you compile a list of the 10 best players at each stake Phil plays from $25-50 and up? It would be nice if you added a short comment for each list, describing why you have ranked it so."

What a strange thing to ask for. Of course I take same approach like everybody else when I make my assumption, I do so by looking at the player´s results. We have highstakesdb to help us do so. You who is a math guy should understand that. For instance, if I want to have the most reliable data possible to base my assumtion on I chose to ignore that very special year when a whale donated 17 millions usd to the highstakes community. I find the 750 000 samplesize of hands after that event to be more reliable and big enough to make a good estimate. I am also basing my assumtion on the trend, and my opinion is that Galfonds trend curve is anything but positive since he has lost 3 millions usd the last 11 months or so.

You may not agree. You may  interpret the results in another way than I do, and that is of course ok. I am however convinced that if we would show the results to a 1000 people outside the RIO community the big majority would understand and agree to my points. I am not speculating about something extraordinary here, it is not like I do not think he is a winning player at highstakes these days.

I do not  need to defend or explain my thoughts anymore though, I have already explained why I believe what I believe and I have tried my best to show what I base my assumption on. If you guys do not agree with me we just have to accept that we have different opinions and end the discussion with that.

Let us just hope that this community will accept that some members now and in the future should be allowed to have unpopular thoughts and opinions and let us move on. 

phil is #1 in the database of my heart. at least top 3

straight up boss!

I just told you. I just look at the highstakesdb database. Here is my thoughtprocess: 

"Last 5 years Galfond has managed to put in 750 000 of hands which includes 550 000 hands of his favourite style PLO. In those hands he has lost 800 000 usd, therefore my assumption is that he is no longer at the absolute top of poker players in his pool since those at the top should not lose money in that big of a samplesize. Of course, I can filter and show one month less which will make him a 6 buyins winner over a bit more than 700 000 hands, but this is still not enough to make him a top player in his playerpool. 

Exactly that is my thought process. Accept it or not and just let us move on.

P.s By player pool I mean NL 25/50 and higher.

Luci- You keep talking about buy-ins as if all of my play on stars and FTP is at 300/600.  Over 90% of it is at 25/50-100/200.

Well if you believe that he has played 90 percent (or even the majority) of hands at 25/50 then it is probably you that has failed to understand. 

He has earlier several times said that he almost never plays at 25/50. He has even talked about how important it has been for him to keep a big bankroll because he would lose so much EV if he could not play at nosebleed stakes since the skill level of players between 25/50 and nosebleeds are not that big.

Also, since he is a world class player, why would he play the majority of hands at nl 25/50? What you are saying is that he is a 25/50 grinder and when he takes shots at the nosebleeds vs the top players he loses big. If Galfond has been a 25/50 grinder last 5 years I would be very surprised and I doubt this to be correct.

However, If he has lost 800 000 usd last 750 000 hands (as shown in highstakesdb) by playing mostly at 25/50 then I guess there should not be any more discussion if still he is top of the top or not. After all, if you are a top 3-5 player in the world you do not grind at 25/50 for five years. And how can you get so much action at 25/50 if you are a world class player?

Just look at his graph and you will see that he has too big swings to be playing 25/50. Also, read his own post in this thread and you will understand that he plays mostly at nosebleeds stakes.

I am sorry but that is just a fact.

Mr Thomas never gives up.

Was identified early, though : stop giving him credit.

midori Of course my assumption can not be scientifically proven by studying the database from highstakesdb. That is why I call it an assumption. There is however no better way to figure these stuff out than to look at results and hand sample sizes. This is something everybody normally agrees on but for some reason many of you guys do not agree in this case.

It is correct what you say that some players may have too small of a sample size for us to be able to make a good estimation about their skill level, but we just have to live with that because there are no other way around it. The thing is though, is that I am not pointing out certain players to be better than Galfond, I am just basing my assumption on how much he has won or lost and I believe that a top of the top player would not lose money in a 750 k hands sample size, or win a very small amount (related to the stakes played) in a 720 k hands sample size. I really do not understand why this is so difficult to understand?

So this makes the question; has he played almost all of his hands at 25/50 and crushed but sometimes taken shots at nosebleeds and lost all of his winnings because of variance? This has of course not happened because everybody knows that Galfond has been a nosebleed player the last five years and his graph shows it. 

Another fact is that it is a well common opinion that some guys stroke gold in the early days of poker and that those players had the chance to rise to nosebleeds very fast and easy compared to how it has been in the years after "Laliberte" era. The skill level between the early highstakes players that still sticks around, and those who rose to 25/50 stakes years later are often not that big. This is something that several highstakes players has stated and agreed on, Galfond is one of them. Galfond has himself said that he does not want to play lower than nosebleeds because of the fact that it would be very -EV for him.

So that makes me come to the conclusion that Galfond mostly has been a nosebleed player for the last years and that he has one of the biggest 50/100 plus hand sample sizes out there to make assumptions from. And since I believe that a player who is the top of the top of his playerpool would not be somwehere around breakeven when playing that many hands, then my conclusion is that Galfond no longer is top of the top at the stakes he plays.

I would appreciate if we all could just accept the fact that we may have different opinions and move on, so I would appreciate if you guys will not address me anymore in this subject.

Thank you!

Odd oddsen on Phil Galfond last year : 

I don't think villain needs much introduction, he is probably the best/toughest TAG out there right now, so getting reads on him is pretty tough. 

http://www.runitonce.com/plo/200-400-ante-vs-phil-quick-checkup/

FWIW Odd oddsen topped the plo leaderboard last year

You're just trying to make a point and you can't be convinced, coming up every time with a new argument. When Isil and Odd think of him as the toughest plo player, no need to pursue this discussion further.

Only one way to settle this: HU vs Ivey.
Ivey played Isildur HU yesterday.

FYI : according to highstakesdb, Phil played 67hands PLO hands this year. LOL

http://www.highstakesdb.com/results.aspx?Site=PokerStars&GameType=2&top=40&period=yea

and when did antonius said that? link to the source 

http://www.pokerplayer.co.uk/poker-players/player-interviews-poker-players/patrik-antonius-3/

I can give you the link of but of course but I do not in any way assume that Antonius is correct. As a matter of a fact we should all avoid assuming that players public opinions and statements about other players skill level is a fact of reality because it can often be hidden reasons behind their statements.

Zenfish you are entitled to have your opinion and that is fine with me. This is one of the reasons why we have discussions in open forums. To share thoughts, discuss and sometimes disagree.

Let us all agree to disagree, I think that a 750 000 hands big example size is big enough to make an assumption about someones success and ranking at certain stakes, you guys do not agree. Normally maybe you do, but obviously not in this case since it is Galfond we are discussing.

Let us end discussion with that conclusion please!

What is inappropriate? I like reading books

Mister bigfish is moderator in nl section, not general poker

Aleksandra Bozic Calling me mental sick, rooting for me to die, and insinuating that I am shit is of course inappropriate behavior. Do not get me wrong, I do not care if you insult me, it is just that I do not think such behavior should be allowed in an open community and for the sake of the members of the community we could wish for some action from moderators. I have no idea why the moderators are letting you do this over and over again in different threads even though I flag your comments.

And to Zenfish I just want to say that your comment about me "making a stir" in this community just because I have an honest speculation and assumption that does not suit well with you and other members is pretty strange and alarming.

I do not care though, I will not respond in this thread anymore and therefore there is no reason for you guys to address me from now on.

Peace!

IDK why you concluded i called you any of that ? I'm just posting what I'm reading

Books aren't forbidden these days, not inquisition time 

OMG is this discussion still going on? lol at the derail of the thread, too bad people just like to emphasize their opinions so much, chill, if you are sure w/o question that u r right then why look for approval from everyone else, jeez. 

K I plan on staying out of this (and already should have), but it's tilting me too much because this is a site where people come to learn from me, so I need to say:

When you play a range of stakes from 25/50-500/1k, you can be down money while up a significant amount of buy-ins and with a high winning bb/100 and EVbb/100 over a significant sample.

TBH most of what luciatta is saying seems VERY valid. Like there are alot of guys with better results. 

Its EXTREMELY strange @lucaettaIvey . 

Can someone shut this thread, it's uber tilting seeing this every day... 

We just have to accept that people like to stir, people like to seek individuality... 

And I'm not condemning any opinion, i am however saying that the chosen format to express an opinion, is a good indication of some (but not all) motivates, 

And what started out as support/rail thread, only a truly incompetent person would not see the backlash against  expressing a "everyone here is wrong" and the player we're railing/supporting, the player who brought us this site, is over rated, opinion, now thats not a quote... But that i think is the nuts and bolts of it.. (i think, tell me of I'm wrong) 

Now again, everyones opinion matters and I'm never going to tell someone that their personal opinion is wrong thats logically flawed to do so, however time and place do matter. 

Luci, you don't sound incompetent, but you picked (accidentally or not) the wrong forum And by doing so your motives do look sususpect... So most people who agree with or not would concede it looks like you were trying to stir, I'm not saying you were or weren't im jusy saying it looks that way....

Overall it was probably inappropriate, but more ill  timed to tell people that the guy were supporting is overrated, in a support thread... I think we should close this one down :) 

I don't care who Luci is, and as far as I remember I haven't attacked him or berated for sharing his opinions with us.  His arguments, however, seemed to lack coherency and relevancy (his phrases like "my honest speculation and assumption" suggest so) to some extent.  

My understanding is that, whenever you bring up an argument that might not coincide with most others, the burden of proof is on your shoulder.  Hence, posters ITT, including me and ZF, were questioning how he came to that conclusion, but we have yet to hear back from him on that one.  In case it was overlooked, I will just repeat what I said to Luci a couple hours ago:

====

Thanks for your reply.  However, I'm afraid that your argument doesn't seem to make much logical sense, unless I am missing something.  If you were to say PG is not the top 5 players now, you should be able to back that up with whoever you think are the top 5!

The thing is though, is that I am not pointing out certain players to be better than Galfond, I am just basing my assumption on how much he has won or lost and I believe that a top of the top player would not lose money in a 750 k hands sample size, or win a very small amount (related to the stakes played) in a 720 k hands sample size. I really do not understand why this is so difficult to understand?

Again, after all your 750k hands "assumptions," why wouldn't you point out certain players to be better than PG?  Logically speaking, if PG isn't at the top 5, there should be at least 5 other players who are better than him right?  Fwiw Viktor dropped a lot of money too according to HSDB; would you consider him to be "maybe top 10, 15 but not 5" player, according to your assumptions?  I'm very curious to see what you think.

In case I haven't been clear, I'm asking you a very simple question here.  Who do you think are those top 5 or w/e PLO players?  Does it happen to correlate with the HSDB top players list?  Have they played enough hands for the sample size to not be an issue?  

In short, would you care to share that list with us? :)  If not that's fine too, but in that case you can't just say your speculation/assumption is honest and then tell us to "agree to disagree" and let it go.  Well, what does honest speculation/assumption mean, anyway?  To pull off a Wittgenstein POV here, the meaning/grammar of these words seem to suggest that the above sentence is not aright one.

Hey Phil, leading to an other subject don't you think making video here at RIO against your regular opponent help then and make their life easier at studying your game. I recently listened the last JoeIngram1 podcast with WCGrider who explained how his RIO abo helped him wining 8k at hu plo having a read on oddsen watching one of his vid.

jungleman better

kanu better

btech better

Chris Moneymaker - better 

midori...Let us say you play nl 50 up to nl 400 for 750 000 hands and end up losing money overall. If you then had been winning some at the lower stakes but lost huge at the higher stakes would you then assume that you are one of the best players at the highest stakes you play? Since Galfond says he has won money at the lower stakes he has not lost only the 800 k that shows in HSDB when playing in the highest games, he has lost 800 k plus his winnings from the lower stakes in the last 750 k hands sample size when playing the highest stakes.

When I play poker and look into my database, I can figure out myself if I am one of the best players or not just by looking on my own results if I have a 750 000 hand sample size and have lost money. I have no idea why you do not understand that?

Just to make you and Zenfish happy though, I will give you a list of players that I believe are better than Galfond right now. From the top of my head:

Very sure but no speciell order:

Ben Tollerene: Because he has been crushing the games for the last years.

Sauce: Because he has been crushing last years. 

Patrik Antonius: Because he is one of the top winners every year without a huge negative trend curve.

Phil Ivey: Because he is the biggest winner of all times and that he has proven earlier that he can adjust and evolve when he needs to.

Jens Kyllönen: Because he has been crushing last years.

Alexander Millar: Because he has crushed for the last years.

Ragen70: Because he has crushed last years.

Sure but less sure and no specell order:

Jungleman, because he has been crushing last years, but I do not know how well he did when he played on euro sites.

Blom, unsure about him because it is difficult to know if his tilting issues and gambling/action issues will be too big of a problem. Also, I know he has won huge at euro sites and I believe he has won enough there, but am not sure.

Eire Abu: He has better results than Galfond last years and has big enough sample size for me to make an assumption on, but I do not know much more about him.

WCGrider Do not know so much about him more than that he is crushing lately. And since he beat sauce over a decent hand sample size it is likely that he is world class. I do not know for how big of a hand sample size totally he has been crushing though.

I probably have forgotten some obvious players now, and can probably come up with more players that has 500 000 plus big hand sample sizes the last years, with better results than Galfond. I will not make the effort though, because I believe this list will be enough to make you happy.

It is not difficult or advanced really, any player that has a hand sample size of 500 k hands plus or so last years and with a better result and trend curve than Galfond, I would rank higher than Galfond these days. 

I would also rank some players with smaller handsample size than 500 k higher than Galfond, if their winrate are high enough. There is a way to  mathematically calcylate the affects of variance. This is how everybody rank players. Normally... I have to add since you guys apparently do not agree.

Maybe he should not. I made my assumption on that he is top two or so biggest winners of all times online and that he is winning steadily every year online. Can be wrong about him though, I do not know.

even if you're right, what's your point ? you're on this site. we're here to learn, from one of the best in the world and certainly the best in the world who is also so willing to expose his play and thought processes to public scrutiny to the extent phil does.

why are YOU here ?

mr thomas got banned. obviously he was able to create another account, time for another (IP) ban.

I don't know why this thread is still going; somewhat childish. Trolls be trolling and the kids be feeding the trolls.

I respect everyone has their opinions and some people feign an opinion or present it in a negative manner to try to receive a certain premeditated response which may, or may not be the case here.

Either way everyone above has been talking in circles, trying to change the mind of someone else... which is literally impossible; only they can change it. The more you argue the more they stand firm in their place.

This thread is just perpetuating a negative and poor image of the forum and the site especially when big names are participating. There was no direct attacks initially, just possible correct or incorrect assumptions.

I personally believe the correct action would be to lock this thread for no future comments as there is nothing to gain; but not deleting it as people have voiced their opinions and shouldn't be muted.

Everyone please take a moment to reread and take an honest view of how you appear from the outside, whether you believe your posts are justified or not.

How do you have nothing better to do than research the history of poker and the history of phil galfond? Surely there must be a more interesting option available to you in life other than continuing on this utterly pointless convo about phil's last match and your opinion on everything phil related. 

Just let it go... it's an argument on the internet about nothing. (if you were actually arguing about something at the beginning I'm sure by now everyone has forgotten what that something is)

Just to elaborate...no one in this thread is improving, or talking about anything interesting (at some point near the top of the thread this wasn't the case) but at this point we've just got a bunch of subjective claims about who are the most talented high stakes regs based on nothing but some results which are subject to huge amounts of variance, people's bias towards their "favorites" and the poster's limited knowledge about the game. 

At the end of the day who really gives a fuck if phils game hasnt progressed as much as other player's or if its progressed even more? Why does it matter to anyone in this thread other than phil. So long as he's talented enough to teach you it shouldn't really matter and I think it's pretty clear he's met those criteria. More to the point, how can anyone really comment on how much his game has progressed in the past few years when they are using a very limited sample of hands to give their opinion.

And now everyone's decided they're required to join in on the troll train. Why not just let it go and live your life until the next HU match comes along whenever that may be instead of berating each other on the interwebz

1)galfond is WELL qualified to teach 99.99% of the poker population

2)galfond wants to teach

3)galfond is a good teacher

4)this is a training site, not a 2p2 BBV thread

shame on all of you that would say or do anything that would possibly discourage one of the game's elite players from sharing his wealth of knowledge with the rest of us

I was already done with this thread, but since Galfond posted I responded to his post, and since the members Zenfish and midori several times asked me for a list of players, I gave them one.

Also, I have never ever talked about Galfond´s credentials as a poker instructor and I have no idea why some people here are insinuating that I have.

I am sorry, but all the responses here just shows that the big issue never has been if a certain player has lost ground vs the top players or not. It seems much more like people´s feelings got hurt because Galfond was the player being discussed. Had the discussion been about Patrick Antonius´s results or some other non RIO associated pokerplayer´s, no one would have cared and probably not even disagreed with me.

Just relax guys, you do not need to be a top 10 guy in the world to teach others to play poker. It is not like Galfond´s target group for the videos he is producing is from the nose bleeds player pool. It is so weird how many of you reacts.

I have absolutely no problem with putting this thread to a rest and I hope that everybody else agrees.

Rest In Peace thread. You lived a long enough life. 

wouldnt it be better to ask Galfond where he currently stands in his own mind in the world then go from there?

Luciaetta Ivey

Is the heat you face really that surprising? Given: you come on a training site headlined by Phil Galfond, go to a thread where he loses $ to one of the top players in the world, converse with a bunch of his paying customers, needle him in front of everyone, and then try to pretend everyone else is crazy because you made up (or found someone else's made up) nosebleed ranking system.

fwiw I highly doubt any of the top players care about who's proclaimed "top 10", that list could change all the time and its more about just getting money.  have you ever heard "if you line up enough monkeys in front of typewriters eventually one of them will write shakespeare"? applying that logic to poker, if the player pool is large enough, eventually someone playing will run hot and beat people at the top temporarily i.e. XBlink, XWink

Anyone mildly interested behind the logic of this Luciaetta Ivey buffoon just go on HSDB.com and go on the Isildur Playing on FTP thread.  It will answer all questions necessary.  And Lucietta, can you please share with us and your comrades from the site I just mentioned, how you differentiate between a top 5 or top 10 player ?  What tools do you use to see results? Im having trouble myself and would like to make my own list.  What happened last time Phil played isi heads up? Did you purposely forget to mention that?  Also, you do know that you can't see the whole cards of online players unless after showdown.  That's a pretty significant detail that gets in the way when i want to analyze who's at the top.  How do you get around such difficulty?  Also, can you post some HH reviews of your play, just to see how you play?  One who speaks with such firmness as you surely has distinguishable success at the felt: please, share with us your insights.

havent read all this but just want to say in general the people participating in this talk about "top players" in poker have mostly no clue whatsoever about variance and this to me includes even some of the considered top players themselves. Its funny how every year there is a new "best player" who figured it all out better than others and yet when you look at this sample sizes in hands played all this talk just becomes laughable. Always the highest stakes in your buy in range will have a huge impact on your shortterm results (shortterm being longer than most think) and when you would filter for each buy in, you would realize that. Most people think they understand variance and down- and upswings and yet dont realize how much they are still results oriented in their judgements. 

On top of all this, at the top buy in levels with the top pros, where edges are super thin, there will be much lower winrates and therefore very high variance/big swings/break even stretches etc. And some of these players dont even get that much action hence the sample sizes of hands played will be very small and cant necessarily be judged even on a yearly basis.

Any good poker player who really puts thought into this game just simply can tell by the way Phil Galfond is talking about hands in his videos that he still is one of the greatest minds in poker and i have little doubt it will stay this way if he keeps playing.

i agree and let's just ignore this attention seeker. You can't juste convince these dudes, and no matter what u say they'll always find another counter argument (completely inaccurate btw, but they don't care). Only way to combat is just to ignore them, let them talk. I hope that my message will be the last in this silly debate .

Man, find something useful to do in life and just... get lost. 

comeback time on the 2-7. shot phil

If I am not mistaken, he is mayby up 200 k or so within the last 2-3 days after he lost about 350 k 2-3 days ago and won some money yesterday. 

There is absolutely no need for waking this thread up again every time he loses some or wins some though. Better to discuss further after he has played another 300 k plus sample size or so at nosebleeds. It can take some time to get that sample size though, because apparently he has been a 25/50 crushing grinder last five years.

Chael Sonnen. Yea, if your "time zone theory" is correct and Galfond now has fixed the leak that made him lose money over 750 k played hands it would be great. If so, maybe we can expect a "time zone" video from him soon. 

200/400 NLHE vs Crazy Elior.
Always good to see the PLO guys go back to NLHE.

And 2x 300/600 with the NLHE regs, and Malacesia.

After not having checked this thread for about 2-3 weeks, I feel like I've really missed out...

Good to see you're back, Thomas. ;)

nicey :))

PolarBeard...I am sure that you can talk shit to, or berate a member of this community as long as the person you berate has shared an (withing the community) unpopular view of something. The mods and owners of the RIO have agreed to it before and their attitude when it comes to stuff like this, does not seem to change. 

So keep on doing it.

I apologize for having brought back the beast. I assure you it was not my intention. 

Let's keep it respectful though, I heard some people have quite fragile egos when it comes to receiving punches instead of dishing them out. 

;)

The quote of the year according to me: "RIO is probably, for for it's members, a poker church";and Phil Galfond is the high priest." Well, that sentence explains everything. 

No wonder that members seem to have difficulties to be unbiased when discussing "their highest priest´s" 800 000 hands big samplesize. Normally even less than a 500 000 hands breakeven stretch is enough to assume that a player is not one of the best in his player pool. What an unhealthy "open" forum this must be then by the way.

About this comment: "That being said, I do not go at the church on Sunday afternoons and tell everyone that their priest is a fraud."

Are you for real? Are you comparing me speculating that Galfond these days is not one of the top 5-10 players in the world to going to church and telling people that their priest is a fraud? Just WOW!

Even though I do not agree with everything in your post I agree with most of it. It was a good summarize of the discussion and we can now let this thread rest, once for all.

Chael Sonnen, I honestly have no clue of what you are talking about? I have never said that I do not like Galfond as a coach and I have never "whined about people digging up dirt". Why do you feel a need to make stuff up?

I have flagged you post as inappropriate though. 

Id like to flag u as inappropriate all together

Support please can we have delete / ban person vote button? Eject to space i suppose is not a choice available :S ?

Yup, Stars got chat ban with a good reason