Losing money when staking off preflop
Posted by Henry He
Posted by
Henry He
posted in
Gen. Poker
Losing money when staking off preflop
I analyzed my database with 350k hands in NL25 zoom 6max. I'm confused that staking off QQ and AK preflop(hero or villain calls) when I'm in CO, BTN, SB, BB vs villain in CO, BTN, SB, BB are losing money. Should I narrow my staking off range vs micro stack guys? How about you guys?
AK: 86 hands -906bb/100 EV -767bb/100
QQ: 39 hands -288bb/100 EV -1164bb/100
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These results seem normal.
You are only taking into account hands that you 1: shove and get called or 2: get shoved on and call.
Now to go further in depth:
1: Most likely scenario is villain opens 2-3bb, you 3bet 7-12bb, he 4bets to around 20bb on average, you jam and he calls.
Numbers will be far off in this case because you don't take into consideration the 20 bb/hand you get when you shove and villain folds. Of course you are behind when called but you are bearly losing the 3bet you already had in the pot and winning hugely when he folds to your jam.
2:First scenario with roles switched now: you open 2-3bb, get 3bet 7-12bb, you 4bet around 20bb on average, he jams and you call.
If you were folding to his jam you would lose 20 bb /hand, that is 2000 bb/100 and you are also gaining alot when he folds to your 4bet which should happen quite often.
Even though it appears to be -EV, you are only taking into consideration the worst outcome (getting called when shoving, or getting jammed when 4beting). You are missing the around 1500bb/100 you make when he folds (his 3bet or 4bet).
can you rerun this and compare calling allins pre EV and shoving pre EV?
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