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Is this where we talk about non-poker related stuff? (Such as sports gambling!)

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Is this where we talk about non-poker related stuff? (Such as sports gambling!)

Any American degens that want to talk sports, fantasy sports, or gambling on sports?

I can't play enough poker to satisfy my gambling interests, so I've turned into a full degen sports gambler. But I still love poker and have the most respect for the opinions and thoughts of poker players when it comes to these issues, so here I am.

My first question, Atlanta Falcons super bowl equity? What kind of price should I get if I want to burn money on a 3 time 1 and done playoff team?

16 Comments

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jtown1010 12 years, 3 months ago
Now that I think about it Damian, that Americans comment was pretty dumb because I've have some of the best NFL discussions recently with Europeans.

Please disregard the American part, any degens will do.
Damian Copeland 12 years, 3 months ago
Well then I am your man.. Im fairly fishy when it comes to the teams/names etc.. but I draw up statistics and like to bet dependant on what happens etc... Im a degen though. I got 10:1 on the steelers game the other day due to their QB(s) being out. And obviously took this and Ka-CHING!

Will love some sports betting action :D

Ps. Im from UK :D
Dan Quinn 12 years, 3 months ago
Hi jtwon,

Phil wanted to create a place to facilitate the best discussion and poker community possible. Our plan is to shape our site to the members, and let the forums and types of discussion grow organically. We'll adapt the website based on trends and feedback, in the hopes that our members as a whole will shape the site to work best for everyone. But for now, yes, all non-poker stuff can go in General Discussion.

Thanks!
jtown1010 12 years, 3 months ago
Thanks Dan, I wasn't sure posting here was the right place, but I'm a huge Phil Galfond fan and want to support this website however I can, so I figured button clicking would be my best option (drive up the traffic!).

Parker Muir 12 years, 3 months ago
Falcons have had one of the easiest schedules so far this season and quite a few close, likely lucky, wins. I feel like their 11-1 record makes them pretty appealing to the public, but given that they probably aren't as good as their record shows, I doubt there is much value in the Vegas odds for them to win it all.

Plus, I drafted Matt Ryan and Julio Jones on my fantasy team this year and they have done nothing but no-show at the worst times to lead me right out of the playoffs!
Pedro 12 years, 3 months ago
@Parker I have Ryan and Jones going into this weekend as well, but I was a bit luckier making it into the playoffs. I hope the roller coaster ride stops this weekend and they actually produce!
jtown1010 12 years, 3 months ago
I agree Falcons are probably a true 3-4 loss team with a balanced schedule in a perfect vacuum.

They have been extremely impressive at home for ~4 years, and that easy schedule gives them a great shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs plus a first round bye.

I'm not looking for Vegas odds so much as profitable odds. I have plenty of Falcons hating friends that will give me action with no regard for the true value of the bet.

I'm just a poor judge here because I'm a total Falcons homer, and always wear the rose-colored glasses when it comes to them.
Parker Muir 12 years, 3 months ago
If you can get better odds than Vegas via your friends who are drinking the haterade, then by all means go for it. See if you can get them to agree on something like 10+ to 1. After all, its immoral to let a sucker keep their money right?
Mikey Stotz 12 years, 3 months ago
Hi all -

I'm Mikey and I work in support and customer service for Run It Once. I have worked for and been good friends with Phil for the last 5 years before getting involved with the site.

I tend to agree that the Falcons record is a bit inflated but I think that it's more of a result of the general variance in the NFL than the strength of schedule. I find that people tend to overrate the good teams and underrate the bad teams.

Gambling wise - I think there is some good value on teams that are fringe playoff contenders right now to win the Super Bowl like the Redskins (50/1 on William Hill), Seahawks (30/1 on William Hill) and the Bucs (75/1 on William Hill). I have a hard time believing that any team that makes the playoffs would be worse than 20/1 to win the Super Bowl. That said, I believe Taylor Caby posted something on twitter a few weeks ago about when teams with good records play teams with the worst records late in the season. The result is usually a gigantic spread that is hard to justify and it is usually a good idea to take the points in these games.
Parker Muir 12 years, 3 months ago
Totally agree that the fringe type teams offer the most value. The NFL do or die playoff system definitely leads to enough variance to make these often worthwhile.

I'm still scarred from fully queuing up a bet on the Giants at 30/1 this time last year, and then ultimately deciding not to click confirm. As if this wasn't enough, I went on to bet against them on the road @GB and again @SF, likely trying to make myself feel better. Yeah I should probably stick to poker.
jtown1010 12 years, 3 months ago
The Falcons have had plenty of positive variance so far this season. I would say their W/L record is a result of a weak schedule as much as positive variance though. They could have easily lost a few of the close games they've played recently, and against tougher competition they probably wouldn't have been in a position to play these games so close.

What makes this such a tough decision for me is the past playoff failures of the Falcons resulting in favorable gambling odds for me, but I'm lacking confidence in even really good odds because Atlanta has been so mediocre against fairly soft competition.

My only concern is burning too much money getting favorable odds when the Falcons could easily be a dog at home coming off a bye week in the playoffs. They might have to win 2 home games as a dog to make the super bowl, the NFC is just loaded this year.

Mikey Stotz 12 years, 3 months ago
This is a common topic of conversation that I have with Phil Galfond. We usually bring up the guy that wrote Freaknomics and his approach to investing + sports betting. I think the general theme of his investments is that the best teams/investments/stocks are often overvalued and the worst teams/investments/stocks are often undervalued. Unfortunately, even if they are undervalued and are 30:1, you still end up a loser so often that it takes a toll on the psyche.
Sam Lang 12 years, 3 months ago
'nuff bout 'merican football. Anyone fancy a chat about a nice game of cricket, rugby or croquet? croquet is a terribly strategic game chaps!
jtown1010 12 years, 3 months ago
My entire knowledge of croquet comes from the 80's movie "Heathers" starring Christian Slater. Assuming the writers of that movie did their research the best strategy is to get one of your balls right next to your opponents while it's your turn, then step on your own ball and hit it to smash your opponents ball into an undesirable location. Plus this puts them on tilt, but they might dare you to drink a bunch of household cleaning supplies after so make sure you don't do that.

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