weaktight.com/6958481

Villain is 26/19 over a 2.4K sample. He 3bets 11% from the BB v the SB and has a 37% cold call range. His WTSD is 32% and W$WSF is 44.

PREFLOP: I put villain on the following range:

As always there is scope for argument here but this approximation takes into account the wide 3 bet range for villain in this position. My range is:

FLOP:  My betting range would be:

VALUE:98s(4)  JJ,TT,77 (9) JT (9) J7s(2) T7s(2) AA-QQ (18) AJ-QJ(36) J9(12) J8(3)-95 combos

BLUFFS: Theoretically I should have 2 bluffs to every value hand so 190 bluffs. I have somewhat less than this (especially when in reality hands like Qd9d,Adkd and AdQd are not really bluffs ) . Is this a problem ? If I were to reduce my value range to allow the correct proportion then arguably I should check back my precise hand here as this is among the weakest of my value bet hands.

What is villain’s range for raising here ?  Villain raises flop cbets 15% IP and this flop texture would encourage a greater than average amount of raises both with made hands and semi bluffs. Here is the range I assign to villain after his raise:

I have left some weakish Jx in villain’s range because it is possible villain thinks with wide ranges  and a wet flop he can and should  bet widely for value and protection. On this basis my hand has about 54.5% equity v villain’s CR range and is the best hand nearly 77% of the time.

My MDF against villain’s raise is  4.25(4.25+5)x100=46% so  at least 119 combos. 

VALUE 3 BETS : 98s(4),JJ,TT,77(9) . I  think 3 betting 2 pair or worse is too thin here ?

BLUFF 3 BETS:  Do I again need a 2:1 ratio ? If so I need 26 combos. The difficulty here is that even if villain is bluffing he will have so many high equity bluffs that I query whether I will have sufficient fold equity to sustain this many bluffs ? If I did bluff here I would use the unpaired 2 card backdoor flush draw hands(13) .  Some of these are high equity semi bluffs such as KcQc and Qc9c but I think this is good given my 3b is a shove. Should I really bluff more widely here ?

Anyway that leaves this calling range

TURN: Villain shoves. So what is his range here ? I think villain has made hands which he figures to be ahead of my range but vulnerable to a bad river card and draws of varying strength. Some villains may shove with 98s here but I think most would bet smaller at least with 9d8d. I have allowed 30% of other 98s combos as well as some of the weaker Jx combos. So that leaves this

My range has just over 50% equity against this range and my specific hand is best about 62.5% of the time. On this basis my fold seems a clear mistake.  Using the MDF approach I should defend 12.5/(12.5+12.5)x100=50% of my flop calling range, so at least 112 combos of those remaining

TWO PAIR:JT(9)J7s(2) T7s(2)=13

OVERPAIRS: AA-QQ (18)

TOP PAIR: all JX combos(51)

WEAK PAIR PLUS FLUSHDRAW(SO ALL XdXd): A7s,A5s, K7s,K5s,97s,87s,76s,65s,54s(9)

OESD WITH FD: KQs,K9s,Q9s(3)

OTHER NFD:AKs,AQs,A9s,A8s,A6s, A4s,A3s,A2s(8)

This gets us to 102 combos . Already some of these feel like bluff calls (e.g. Ad6d) . I could arguably make up more by calling with hands like Qd8d. 

What does seem clear is that I should have called with my actual hand which is nowhere near the bottom of my range. At the same time when I call villain’s check raise my range should be reasonably strong (though arguably capped) and when he shoves there are few worse hands with which he would do this for value so my hand is a bluffcatcher. In game his line felt like he had a made hand which was scared of draws and was relieved by the turn blank which he saw as an opportunity to shut out the draws (or at least get incorrect calls from some of them). Equally, I can see he might take this line with a draw especially if he perceives me as having a capped flop calling range. Snowie considers my fold a clear mistake. Is there any case to the contrary?