Goal for 2019: Be a balanced pokerpro
Posted by Onkleb
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Onkleb
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Poker Journals
Goal for 2019: Be a balanced pokerpro
Hello Everyone.
I decided to start new blog for 2019, since its annoying to scroll trough long threads on RIO.
Some of you might know who i am, so feel free to skip this part. For others, i am Toni, Finnish poker player, playing 200z at pokerstars. I have played full time around two years (if i recall correctly), but have been playing poker since the good old WPT and poker boom times. Even though having played poker that long, i still have passion for the game. I notice it when i take longer breaks, since after the break im always very eager to get back and just play poker.
Last year was a big step forward for me. Not only moving up im limits, but overall i felt very proud what i was doing and how i did it. I was able to overcome obstacles that i thought were almost impossible for me, and just made a lot of progress overall. In poker the biggest jump was moving up from 100z to 200z and achieving descent winrate there. Moving up has been a big challenge for me in my past, so achieving that was huge for me mentally.
So, what to expect from this blog?
Same answer as last time, no idea. This blog is mainly just my random thoughts that i feel need to let out. So very messy, very little real content, just random button clicking (like my game). Somehow people have found it interesting (which i still wonder), so if its +EV for me and maybe +EV for you, why not.
Goals for 2019
Be a balanced pokerpro. What does that mean, im not even 100% sure myself. At least for me its ability to keep poker and all other areas of life somehow in order. Ability to get destroyed at tables and still spend a nice evening with girlfriend, friends or with family. Ability to put in the work on and off from poker tables, even though your mind wants you to drink beer and play video games. Ability to enjoy the benefits that come from being self-employed.
No something concrete:
- 550k hands
- Most of the volume @ 200z
- Keep mind open for moving up and/or playing regular tables at other sites
- Winrate goal 4-10bb/100 (around 95% chance w current winrate)
- Monetary goal 44k-110k $ (same as above)
Thats enough to get things started. Good luck for poker year 2019!
Loading 186 Comments...
Happy to see you will be continuing posting about your career - it definitely was one of the most interesting blogs I've enjoyed in 2018. I think your attitude towards the game and life as a pro is very admirable and it's great to see people like you living the dream and experiencing why it's worth pursuing them. All that in days where the poker world seems to be infested by the impression that poker is dying. Let's hope we as the poker community can prove them wrong and excited to see how your year kicks off. Good luck!
In. GL!
Subbed!
Let's gooo!
best of luck!
glgl
Hope You crush 2019!
good luck to you buddy
anna mennä!
you got new follower keep it up.
Thanks guys!
Eldora Whole topic of online poker dying is interesting for sure. My personal view is that you can always get better and/or find softer games to play. I can only speak from my personal experience, but i think online poker is doing just fine. Still plenty of fish in pools and average regular is making a lot of mistakes (like me). Usually people that complain about the state of games are either fish or not winning players. Its just easier to complain the system or something than put in the work.
I thought about good ways to split my year. Instead of setting up goals on monthly basis, i decided to split year into four quarters. Idea behind that is to turn focus even more to long term, instead of short term. Im pretty sure many of you have felt need to bank a good month, or grind more so that you are able to get a winning month etc. I have done it, and thats the kind of thought process im trying to get away from.
So my goal for the Q1 (1.1-31.3) is to play 125k hands @ 200z. Also my goal is to only check results at the end of the quarter. Again the same thing, mind from short to long. Reason for so low volume goal is that im spending almost whole March in Thailand on a holiday, where im not going to play any poker. But before that its crucial to get back into good poker routines, good quality poker and effective studying.
Goals for 2019:
*study every week with your study group
xD
GL, beast
Not a bad goal for sure.. (:
Year has started pretty average. Have been playing somewhere around B to C-game and feels like im running pretty bad. But im really happy to my performance today. I slept pretty horribly last night and played really bad session in the morning. I really felt like i would call it for today, but i managed to get myself together and played somewhat ok evening session.
Im a bit tempted on trying to chance my playing rhythm. I usually play one session in the morning/midday and another in the evening. But i really feel that evening games are softer than midday games, so i would really want to put more volume in the evening. Problem is that im not used on playing long sessions (4hours+). Maybe i try it out and if it feels impossible i will chance back to old.
update ?
gambler91
Im having trouble coming up with anything to share. Im just following my plan and trying to execute that as well as I can. Trying to keep playing, studying and other stuff in balance. And so far, I feel it’s going pretty nice. I have quite well-established playing and studying routines, what helps to free time for other activities. Also I have been able to add meditation to my evening pre game warm-up, which helps me tremendously to get into playing mood. I have had troubles with finding motivation to play on evenings and short meditation really helps with that. You really should try that you if you haven’t already. But in big picture nothing interesting really. Feels like I started to run a bit better, but longer perspective I have less it really matters. For me not knowing the results and knowledge that im not going to see them before 31.3 has really helped to shift my focus really away from day to day variance and mistakes.
I different node, I stumbled on this pretty interesting conversation w Nick Howard and some of hes potential student : link
For those who aren’t going to watch it, guy is talking about how he is unclear what to study and how in order to get the results he wants. This really resonated with me since a lot of stuff I hear from poker community is really in my opinion just feudal. This fixation to make the game as complex as possible because that’s what Piosolver does. Somehow some people think that if they just manage to balance these two cbet sizes they are doing to crush the field. I mean wtf. Seems like part of poker players don’t really understand where EV really comes from. Most of the EV (at least on games I play) comes from when people deviate massively from equilibrium. Of course, there are so many ways to deviate; overfolding, overcalling, overbluffing, defending only by calling etc etc. And whether people do that knowingly or not, it really doesn’t matter. What matters is that you are able to recognize those spots, and exploit them as much as possible.
And about sizes and complications: I ran two Piosims (BB vs BTN) with different settings ( first , second ):
One with 2 cbet sizes, 2 turn sizes and 3 river sizes for IP. Other one with locked cbet otf, one size ott and one otr. Turns out if you are able to master for sim with all its mixed strategies and nuances you are able to generate 4% more EV. That might sound a lot but on the other hand 96% of the EV comes from somewhere else than from different sizes. And you can just imagine how huge the first game tree is compared to second. Just pick A3 sheet of paper and pen and start drawing those two side by side and think which is more reasonable to even try to grasp.
Ok that’s enough for random rants. This nonsense that you have to be Piosolver in order to beat nl50 just makes me frustrated and sad at the same time.
Nice post!!! I'm thinking in start using only one size, now I'm trying to choose one size to use, from a gto perspective any size that I chose have the same EV, but against wich size in your opinion people tend to deviate more from equilibrium? I'm thinking in use a size that people doesn't play well against and a size that provide a simple strategy, big sizes the strategy have a lot less mix but the answer is simple, people need to just easy fold a lot of hands, and the medium size in equilibrium people need to call some hands that they could think is ''close'' and deviate by folding but the medium size have a lot of mix, wich size do you recommend to use on the turn and river when using only one size strategy in single raised pots? 66% is the goat in srp? and in 3bet pots? wich size do you recommend on the turn and river?
False Teller
When choosing betsizes you can think strictly in terms of theory ("what would pio use in this spot") or you can try to pick sizes that pool makes most mistakes against (some data is preferred to prove this one). In early streets you can usually just simplify to one strategic option, but on later streets its almost impossible to avoid "mixing".
I personally have three sizing options: Small bet (33%), normal bet (75%) and big bet (150%). Do i use these sizing in gto frequencies? Hell no. Do i think i have good reason when i use these bets? I think so.
What i tried to say in most post was that what size you pick doesnt really matter but in what frequencies you do it. And that there is so much what to focus on instead of exact sizings. So instead of worrying is this a big bet, small bet or medium bet spot id focus on how can i exploit the pool in this spot? Or do i have reads over this player / player profile which i can use to my advance in the hand? Of course sizings and exploits do hand in hand, but my point is to chance thinking from "perfect play" to exploiting play.
I dont know if i really answered your question, but those where just some thing that popped in my mind when reading it. (:
Last post left so negative vibe that im forced to post some spew hands.
1. Seems like my image is ok
2. Never put funplayer on too tight range
3. Low frequency image play
4. Tight missclick fold
Do you coach?
Nice. Can you break down hand 3 for us? ��
Hand 3 is sick. Could you break it down please?
D M
I have had two coaching sessions with a student that speaks Finnish. Other than that no.
Hova
About AT: Basically was planning to bluff some rivers after turn raise. However on blank river villain can easily end up overbluffing, since hes valuerange is super narrow and pool sucks at valuebetting.
Update please onkleb :)
Which stats you used for pool trends in hand2note? Thanks :)
Basically any stats are worth studying. Favor a "broad to narrow" perspective seeing 1st the overall line trends, then by profile, by texture, etc.
gambler91 :
ChaoRen123 nailed it basically. If you are just starting out focus more on very general stuff. As you progress you can look into more and more subtle spots, such as boards, runouts, sizings, player profils etc. Sometimes when i play i have a thought / feeling that some specific spot might be worth looking into. Then i just mark the spot and review it later w hand2note to see if my gut feeling was true or false.
Kinda hard to do even a month update when you arent checking the results. Well i played 51k hands which is a bit under my volume goal. But nothing alarming. Been studying a lot and i have been very open for changing my game. I noticed that last few month at the end of 2018 i basically just played and didnt really focus on improving my game. Of course it more a challenge trying to improve, but on the long run it will pay off for sure. Now it sometimes feels that im just spewing around, even though i know some spot is +EV in a long run. Especially bluffcathcing in new spots can be really mentally taxing, given how often you are still wrong in those spots. What i mean is that in almost all bluffcatch spots you call and expect to lose very very often (60%+). So when you have spot that is still new and a bit unclear for you and then you bluffcatch it five times and lose all of them you can easily start to question is this spewing or not. Even though you know it will be +EV in the long run.
For February goal is to play 54k hands before 25.2 Then im off to Thailand for 3,5weeks and on that time my goal is to have zero poker content in my life. Not like i would be burnt out or anything, just that my mind is really able to reset and recharge for the rest of the year. But until that, lets keep good poker routines going. (:
edit. Remember to put some hands in at riopoker starting from tomorrow. I missed the betatesting so im really pumped to see what they have come up with. See you guys there!
Suffered a bad beat few days ago. My computer broke and last few days ive been spending on trying to get it work and installing everything back again. Really frustrating since whole weeks playing schedule and rhythm went totally off. Today i was finally able to get session in and trying to get back into poker routines. Funny that i feel a bit angry to myself for falling back from my volume goal, even though this time it wasnt my fault.
Was able to test out RIOpoker yesterday. Overall really pleasant experience. Playing was really fun and easy to see that it could attract a lot of funplayers (if they somehow stumble to the site). Splash pots are also really nice way to offer rb. Also super +EV if you really know how to play those spots.
Some update before a long break :
STAKES GRAPH
Results from the last two months. Nothing special really, but at least i managed to book some EVdollars. Somehow i feel a bit disappointed even though results are reasonable when taking variance into consideration. I have been changing my game a bit which shows in occasional spews and misplays. But thats totally understandable and part of the learning process.
I didnt got anything special to say, just wanted to share results so far before heading to Thailand. While being there im hoping to find direction where to head next in terms of poker. Whether to try to move up quickly or put descent volume in at 200z.
Hey, is it enough to use your own database for h2n research or is it necessary to have millions of hands?
Why haven't you taken shots at 500z yet? If I was you I don't think I could resist trying with such a winrate :p
Good luck.
For really basic stuff, like preflop and very frequent postflop stuff own database is enough. For more spesific spots and different boards runouts etc you need larger database. So in database research bigger is almost always better.
Hmm i dont really see poker like that. Lets say i take a shot and play 50k hands 500z and win 10bb/100. Does that really tell anything about if im able to beat those games or not? Imo it tells nothing. If i decide to move to 500z i will make it a clear goal of mine and really put my full effort into it. Instead of just taking a shot and hoping something good comes out of it.
Sorry about messy answer, from pool with phone and very little thinking :)
With taking a shot I basically just mean moving up stakes (with a 10BI stop loss or so). I usually did it when I had 50 buy-ins for the next stake.
Variance can really skew a 50k sample but you're never going to get a big sample without making one. You're winning over 8bb/100 at 200z over 1 million hands, it's very likely that you're profitable at 500z. You have one of the best winrates I've ever seen...
Yes i totally understand your point of view and its probably balanced than mine.
What i tried to say is that if i make 500z my goal i will commit to put in big enough sample to "proof" if i can beat the stake or not. What is good enough sample and wr is debatable but im pretty sure you get my point. Also if you havent followed my journey moving up in stakes has been one of my biggest challenges.
Also my graph in op is over 50% 100z, so wr at 200z is 7bb or lower, so nothing crazy.
Thanks for the support and I'll try to come up with more thought out answer when i get back home.
7+ bb/100 at 200z is crazy in my opinion, these days.
I'd call 0-2 struggling, 2-4 decent, 4-6 good, 6-8 very good, and higher crushing. (including rakeback in the winrate)
Maybe you can just play some 500z now and then when you feel like you're in the zone (playing your A+ game), feel confident and the pool is softer than average, while keeping 200z your main game if moving up is such a big issue for your mental game.
I'm really curious how well you would do and don't understand what you're waiting for. I played almost 200k hands at nl200 it looks like I'm basically just a rakeback grinder at the moment and it fucking sucks.
whats is this wwsf!? insane gl man
Win small pots and lose big is my core strategy :)
Im having some troubles getting into poker rhythm. Some jetlag, a lot of stuff going on in other parts of life and somehow managed to get sick.
Goal for the next two months is to get back into balanced poker rhythm. Goal is to play 120k hands @ 200z, so that i can get my 200z sample to 500k. After that if everything looks good im going to make a decision whether to move up of continue playing 200z. For me mentally its important that i can show myself that i can beat given level in a big enough sample. Of course there isnt big enough sample that would remove variance entirely and there isnt such thing as "real winrate". But still i just feel that big sample with descent winrate gives me confidence which helps when things arent going in my way.
But yea, lets get the routines going and hopefully some EVdollars @ 200z. (:
Finally caught up on your thread. GL bro!
Thank you sir. (:
Same here. Good luck mate. I like your attitude towards the game!
Nuno Alvarez Thank you as well. (:
Im having a bit tougher time with poker right now. Nothing really special or interesting but just regular downswing. Maybe a bit bigger than i am used to lately but still nothing crazy. Just more challenging to bring your A-game to the tables when you are having more rough sessions and hands in a row. What usually happens to me in a downswing is that i to try too much and end up forcing aggression and taking very unclear spots. After some spews i wake up and start to play my standard game with emphasis on taking only spots that im really confident they are +EV. This time is no exception to that cycle.
Added challenge is that i havent had as much time for poker as i would like. We are renovating our home right now, which takes a bit chunk of my both physical and mental energy. It could have some affect on my performance or it could be just a excuse, who knows. But luckily its coming to an end so i have more time to dedicate for poker.
Also i nerded up and build my very first pc. Basically just that H2N and pio would run i bit quicker. And man there is a big difference between 2014 and 2019 Pcs. Might even try some pc-games after a long break, since i assume this pc can run something more than age or empires 2.
Ok again a lot of rambling, gl at tables (:
Wouldnt be surprised if its a 10BI downswing :DDD GL turning it around brother, I'm sure it will happen soon.
I'm not renovating but I am moving to a new place right now I can tell it's stressful af. Really hard to get into grinding mindset before everything settles imo. Perhaps just do more studying during this time, thats what I am doing.
About your new PC, did you get an SSD? That's the most important part imo
Saulo Ribeiro
Haha could be even 11. :D Yea i totally know how you feel. I was in exact same situation in early 2018, when we were selling our house and getting a new one. Good point about focusing on studying, since its way less mentally taxing than playing.
Af yes i forgot to mention that. So i went with intel 660p which is m. 2 nvme. Should be a bit faster than regular ssd.
Good luck getting through the downswing. Do you happen to have a picture of your PC you'd be ready to share?
Thanks. Sure thing : link Heres some specs if you are interested :
CPU: Ryzen 7 1700
Motherboard: MSI B450 A PRO
RAM: Ballistix sport DDR4 3000mhz 16gb
GPU: MSI rx570 8gb
PSU: Evga 500b
Case: Corsair 100r
Prize with windows was around 720 €. Goal was to get pc that runs pio and h2n smoothly and can run newer games with ok settings if i get interested on those.
Haha nice man ty looks great. I'm not expert enough but sounds really decent for 720€ total. That's awesome
I messed up when looking my stats and accidentally saw my results. Apparently i was able to book a winning month. graph stakes
I was fortunate to get some real rungood in last few weeks. Nothing special, just lots of coolers and marginal spots which all seemed to go in my way. Cant complain but also important not to put too much emphasis on that either.
Im pretty happy on my volume with still a lot of stuff going on. What suffered was studying which i did very little. But overall really happy on my performance. I know that putting descent volume is a leak of mine, so being able to play even this much is a real accomplishment. But yea i didnt have anything special to say, just wanted to share my results since i looked them up also. (:
Vaaaaaamo! Great results man, congratz!
Lagasaurus
Thanks and good luck in 200z tables! (:
Hey Onkleb
I think blogs/threads/journals like these are an amazing way to keep you on track with your biggest goals. Keep the updates coming, and best of luck this year!
Elliot Roe Thank you sir. (:
To be honest i should do better job mapping what are my biggest goals at the moment and in the long run...
Grats for your success. I have one question: how are you able to not see your bankroll when you open the tables? I have hidden my bankroll in the poker Software but that is not sufficient.
Thanks!
Sure i have high tech solution for that. I just look the bottom part of the screen when i join tables :D
I definitely don't mean to hijack the thread in any way (sorry) but I do see discussions about computer specs on here. Can someone recommend a good, inexpensive laptop used almost entirely for basic functions (web, social media, videos, etc) and poker? I am going to need to get something new soon and I know that for the relatively limited hardware needed for just online poker I can probably get something that suits my needs pretty well, relatively cheap.
Nice recovery on the last graph. Keep crushing and please keep posting.
Hey man, I saw you response to Elliot, don't you see a motivation in moving up to highstakes?
Thats an excellent question.
Like i previously mentioned my longer term goals for poker arent as clear as they optimally would be. In the past i only saw negative things with moving up: Bigger swings, more competitive opponents and higher stress. I wasnt able to see the positives: Possibility to higher winnings in term of $, lower winrate is "allowed", possibility to progress in career and more rapid development. Its funny to look back to start of 2018 when my clear goal was to break trough to 200z. My biased assumptions about how tough the games would be just because you move from one stake to another were absurd. Fortunately i was able to see trough my assumptions and realize that humans are humans no matter the stake, and that same leaks and weaknesses where present in both stakes.
What im trying to say that my mind still puts too much emphasis on negatives that come with moving up and too little on things that are positive with that. Its hard to describe that to player that is really used to moving up in stakes. Remember that ive been playing nl100 stake regularly from around 2008 -> if i remember correctly.
So to answer you question :D : Currently no, but thats mainly because of my biased view on how moving up looks like.
Very interesting, I'm sure you are on the top3 200z regs, so that's why I asked about moving up. I think that the tipping point is when you percieve that there's no benefit in staying on a level that you already crush. This can be seen by many different ways, one is for the money - you make more money on higher limits (on average), the challenge - by playing better regs you have to improve more your understanding of the game, and some other factors.
I'm not trying to say that you should move up, that's totally personal, and it's a thing that I have struggled a lot during my carrer, I was a nit in takings shots. But anyways man, GL on your carrer, you are already a crusher and I'm sure you have the potential to beat the highest stakes :)
You can better express that in terms of opportunity cost. The cost of not maximizing EV with the opportunity of playing higher limits is huge, not only financially, but in all other aspects that surround a potentially exponential monetary return. I believe its a big mistake to spend too much time at the same limit in poker for this very reason, but I respect anyone that thinks differently.
Ultimately poker is only our occupation. Our ultimate goal should be to maximize our satisfaction and well being in life as a whole. For some people, that may not include the potential stress of trying to move up in stakes and facing higher swings and etc
Yeah, but I dont know how are the taxes in OP's country too, maybe there's no incentive in winning more if after taxes he would win the same with only more stress
Saulo Ribeiro
I agree and i understand what opportunities could be missed if not moving up. I consciously know that moving up should be a big priority, given what i could bring. What i tried to describe was how my view over moving up looks like and how its totally biased and untrue. But what i think is important that im aware over some of my biases and i can actively work to overcome those.
Totally agree. Thats why poker as a profession is a balancing act. And what comes to life EV after certain point more money doesnt have great effect on your happiness. But on the other hand having extra $ in your account can really hurt either.
Lagasaurus
Right now poker players have excellent situation here in Finland. Poker is categorized as a game of chance , like slots, blackjack or any other gambling. That means that all winnings are completely tax-free. So there isnt any taxing that would incentive playing / winning less. On other topic, there is some chance that new government will try to block online gambling , which in worst case scenario could be really challenging for us poker players.
Wow! I'm moving to Finland right now lol.
Yeah, being aware of your biases is the first step to overcome them, I'm sure that you will suceed at higher stakes at the moment you decide to move up. GL man!
Ok ok time to wrap-up May. STAKES GRAPH
Really average month in terms of results. Ive been changing my strategy a bit which shows up in occasional spews and other inaccuracies. But all in all it felt that i was playing pretty well most of the time. Also im happy on my volume, getting almost 60k hands which is on the higher side for me. So all in all im actually pretty pleased how this month turned out.
Also i managed to reach 500k hands @200z (almost): graph
Cant get h2n show evbb in graph, but it is 6,85 bb/100 for this sample. Nothing special, but important for myself so that i have proof i can be a winner on those stakes. 500k hands is big enough sample to clear majority of variance away. Of course i understand that poker is such a dynamic game that there isnt like a true winrate from here to eternity. But for me big sample helps you deal with variance since you have some proof that you are able to beat the games and what you are doing isnt completely off.
That enough for now, later i try to share my plans for the future. Once i figure out what they are.
Congratulations man! What was the medicine you took for the redline? lol just kidding, keep on crushing my friend
It's clear that you've changed something. Your showdown and non-showdown graphs seem to have switched placed.
What percentage of regs do you think are countering your hyper exploitative strategy? I've been trying out some explo stuff myself and after a few weeks I've already seen some regs do really non-standard check backs with strong top pairs and overpairs on wet boards. Feels like I'm getting owned but I can't tell for sure.
If I was you I would try to check if your strategy works on the next stake. Either by playing or by mda. If it does, move up. If it doesn't, either stay at nl200 or adapt. I think that makes the most sense. I doubt that there is a lot of room for improving your winrate.
Gl
Resolve
Yea ive been trying to play more active and put pressure on spots which i didnt used to take.
Hmm id say rough estimate that 10-20% regs are trying to deviate a lot from their "standard" strategy.
Thats probably why many people are afraid to play really exploitable strategies. After few bluffs that went wrong you start to think that everyone knows what you are doing and are able to counterexploit your strategy perfectly. Sure that can happen, but usually that is not true. Most regs tend to stick on their own fixed strategy and arent really ready to deviate from it. Some regs try to counter exploit you, but do it poorly. Best regs exploit you more subtly even on spots you dont even know. But the best thing is that you dont have to be "better" than those guys. What is important is that you are able to crush fish and weaker regs with as high winrate as possible. And for that i truly believe that very exploitable, not even remotely GTO-solution is the way to go. Am i able to do that? Hell no, not even close.
Like in your example seems like you are attacking flop checkback ranges and you think some guys are now checking back too strong ranges. Ok if thats the case you take a note and change your strategy vs those. And whats interesting is that by checking back too strong range they are opening themselves to counterexploits either on the flop and/or on the turn. Basically doing this exploit / counterexploit game you should eventually reach equilibrium, or so called GTO strategy. Its just in most spots that solution is too complex to implement and very hard to nail right, especially in game.
Very sick results over 500k hands, congrats. I have actually not seen anyone with a higher WR at 200z over this sample. We used to play a fair bit (you-mad-br0), seem to have different timezones now though, but have used your stats as an example to show students what a 200z optimal bot would look like :D
I have similar feelings to you about moving up. In general the decrease in life EV associated with the bigger swings/ lower w/r has always been a trade off I have struggled with.
It is a definite mental game leak, as I'm sacrificing $ EV for life EV, but as Saulo said, poker is just one component of life overall.
plasticelephant
Thank you sir.
Haha i appreciate the bot comparison, but i have no idea what in my stats makes you think that... :D
Hmm yea i dont know what is considered good / very good winrate at these games nowadays. Mainly because very few people share their results consistently so there isnt much to compare. But if id have to pick, i would say something like 8-10 bb/100 would be excellent but very doable.
Yes i will try to reflect on that topic and really dig deep what is important for me right now and in the long run. I will probably share my thought on that here if im able to get any clarity on that.
Interested to hear your thoughts and if you do come to any conclusions on playing higher stakes, it has been a constant internal debate for me.
RE winrates: I have yet to see above 7 EV over meaningful sample size and we've had a lot of very strong players come through bitB. I'm also generally sceptical of rogue claims due to lack of ability to verify and experience of people lying in the past, particularly from random twitch guys who stand to gain a lot from posting modified results.
I guess there is going to be some 5bb true winner that runs at 10bb for 300k hands at some point, and they are guaranteed to spam it all over social media / set up a coaching package etc so then everyone will consider the bar raised.
If you choose not to move up and keep working, I look forward to seeing you refute all of the above with your next 500k hand sample!
I find this statement to be quite silly. If someone runs at 10bb/100 for 300k hands there is absolutely no dout they are probably the best player at the given limit or at least one of the best, so there is absolutely nothing wrong with using that for marketing purpose. There is always going to be some amount of variance in any sample since people generally move up in stakes before playing millions and millions of hands in which then variance would have less impact on the observed winrate. And anyone that is interested in poker results from other players should be aware of the variance involved on any sample. You made it sound like someone would be misleading others into believing some kinds of lie, which is definitely not the case in such context.
No need to wait George, as a member of the cartel I can provide with more evidence :D So there you go, 900k hands of essentially the same strategy - although I do think OP is slightly better than me. That sample has ~100k of bodog 200zone, but nowadays I play exclusively stars because my winrate is better there.
If results from the people in the past/present were the end game, there would never be innovation in any industry. We would always be stuck in a mediocre perfomance limit for someone ages before our time. The truth is that we rarely see high winrates because most regs are bad. Im not trying to brag or anything, I actually kinda suck too. Still have tons to learn about theory, still make tons of mistakes, still dont have great IRL habits that could boost my mental performance, and so on so on so on. The other reason is that a reg that could eventually reach a high winrate just moves up before that happens.
The same goes for any field/area. In 200 years we will acknowledge that a lot of things we know about the world today were wrong or only partially true. Einstein was a genius but at some point in the future, someone will either either prove him wrong or see something he didn't.
And thats really far from the context of the poker industry. There is no Einstein playing 200z. In other words, the room for achieving better performance results is much higher than trying to surpass Einstein in physics :D who would have thought right.
Anyway, just wanted to share my thoughts on this topic, as I find this is quite important to understand for anyone pursuing poker from lower stakes in 2019 - and Im sure there are many reading this blog.
So yeah, 8bb should be achievable at 200z. You should probably just move up before that happens tho :D :D
Very sick results Saulo, obviously you are one of the top top regs at 200z but still absolutely sick to maintain that over that sample. EDIT: also just re-clicked and realised you are 13k below EV - run better :D and pm'ed on 2+2, because couldn't figure it here.
I think you misunderstood slightly on the advertisement point.
We are guilty of it too - unfortunately people love seeing these pop off samples and it's the best way to generate buzz and attention. I agree with what you say but personally think there are a few issues though:
1) Some results consistently shared publicly I'm certain are fake, others just fairly confident. Delete bottom 1% of hands, purge random bad sessions etc, all definitely happening in untrackable games.
2) There is an overwhelming tendency for people who have these samples to believe they are an accurate reflection of their win rate. Many people think they are running bad, very few think they have run good, but insane outlier w/rs tend to select for running good.
3) People maybe have a conscious understanding of variance, but I find even top top players don't really get it. Not so much of a problem with bigger samples, but a random 50k sample will buy way too much credibility.
It's all not that important really though, just my feeling on the state of play and think as always on the internet, there are a lot of rogue actors out there. I personally find one of the hardest thing is explaining to students and getting them to really accept the extent of variance, and these are top guys and players, so would presume that for a lot of lower tier regs it's more of a problem. Obviously this all contributes to where we find our edge, but poker can be a savage game sometimes, and I think sharing and discussing this stuff is mostly productive.
Yeah I get your point. I dont disagree that manipulating graphs happens all the time on the internet. Just thought it was a good opportunity to share my thoughts on this because I know OP's blog is followed by a decent amount of guys, who may be in a position I was a few years ago.
Agree that discussing variance is always mostly productive. Something about the human brain really causes us to struggle to understand it. We also have this tendency of not being able to work for stuff in the long term. We sacrifice long term life EV for mediocre short time EV all the time. And in poker the same thing happens, its like we can't visualize the long run...its way too long for our tiny brains :D
Anyways, good talk. End of thread derail
plasticelephant Saulo Ribeiro
Haha dont you guys worry about derail thread. Im happy to get conversation going. There are a lot of points so ill try to give my thought on some of them.
Faking results / graphs : Of course stuff like this happens. Its internet so be cautious what you believe in. Could be that im faking my graphs and i dont even play poker. You just cant know. But i would assume in mine and saulos case there is a bit smaller possibility for scamming, since we both have been blogging on your journeys for quite some time. Also if you buy coaching from complete stranger that just posted a graph i think you have responsibility as a customer as well. But my knowledge over this whole poker coaching industry is close to 0 so in dont get into that. Or not totally zero, i did 2 hours of coaching for finnish guy and after that he switched to PLO, so thats my advertisement.
Variance : There is basically no amount of playing that removes variance all together and reveals your ”true” winrate. Also winrate and skill attached to that is a moving target and games evolves all the time. So you arent going to find out your exact winrate on given game ever. And playing with variance calculator you can see that its indeed possible to run way above your ”true” winrate over several hundred thousand hands. But because poker variance is calculated by using standard deviation it means that results close to true winrate are way more likely than the ones in both ends of the bell curve. So with 7bb/100 and 500k sample 95% confidence interwall is between 4,17-9,83 bb/100. But results close to 7 are way more likely than these limits, because of the nature of standard deviation.
Winrates : If i understood you plasticelephant right you were saying that over 7bb/100 is practically impossible @200z? I have to strongly disagree with that. Lets assume that my results arent faked (your call, cant really do much to that) and that my winrate is best estimate of my ”true” winrate (what else you can really use?). I consider myself being average player in terms of skill. I have a lot of leaks, mental biases, errors in decision making etc etc. Guys that have worked me know that in many spots im totally clueless, and my favorite answer is ”i dont know”. What im trying to say is that if im able to get 6,85bb/100 results and i know how much there is room to improve, how could it be possible that higher winrates arent possible? Also thinking that my winrate would be somehow the best in the pool is just really egoistic, so only that makes me confident in saying that way better winrates have to be possible. Is it 8bb or 10bb or more i dont know, i just made those number up.
So to sum winrates up: Im average , 7bb/100 → if your good, over 7bb/100.
That some of my thoughts over those topics.
Somehow managed to delete my whole reply - but the gist was:
1) Apologies, I guess my responses appeared to insinuate yours and Saulos results were fake. That is 100% not the case, I have played enough with you and studied this game enough to know you both would be at the upper limits of what I believe to be possible. My response on fake results was more to the point Saulo made about graphs on social media etc.
2) Yeah over 7bb is definitely possible, I'm just using the data I have to judge that is very hard. You and Saulo consistently say you aren't very good. I would say likewise about myself when compared to true equillibrium. But relatively all three of us are very very good poker players. I can only speak for myself here, and my long term winrate is a fair click below yours, but I spend at least 3 hours a day on average talking about or studying this game, and constantly trying to think of new ways to improve. This has probably been the case for the last 2 years, coupled with being very lucky in the people I know to prod me in the right direction, and probably lucky that I ran hot when I started and didn't quit.
I guess the point I'm trying to make is that just because we aren't playing perfectly, doesn't mean it's not exceptionally hard and in my case, required a lot of luck to get to the point of playing professionally with a strategy supporting this hourly/bb/100.
Outliers have a tendency of not believing they are outliers, looking at their own path deterministically etc, attributing success to hard work and grit. I would say almost anyone playing poker professionally is an outlier one way or another.
Pretty big derail and I am just kind of spewing words at this point so I'll bow out here - apologies again on point 1), my original intention was just to come in here to post how sick those results were and how much I related to the moving up question :) glgl.
I don't think you are average, at minimum you are one of the best regs of 200z, I play there, I can say it confidently, you are a hard player to play against, there are some regs on 200z that I dont know how they still play there, Ofc we don't have much sample against each other,but besides you and Saulo, one of the other regs that I find tough to play against is sowiet, there are like 5-10 more regs that I consider a little tricky to play against that play a lot, but there are a lot of average regs. I dont know if you are being modest (and maybe that's your natural way to be) but you certainly arent an average reg, and I don't think an average reg is able to have a 7bb winrate, I consider myself average and for sure don't have this winrate (yet =P)
This:
Interesting reading and impressive results.
Could you post your positional winrates for 100nl and 200nl please?
100z i dont have database ready on my new computer. for 200z positional winrates . Like i have said earlier, i dont know what is good / bad in these. Ive been told that my bb and sb were good, but sure about that anymore.
Impressive results man. What a humble guy you are. Lovely.
Is your SN outed btw?
Thank you sir. Always happy get feedback, especially positive one.
I havent shared my screenname in my blogs. When i started blogging early 2018 i didnt share it because i thought it would affect on how people play vs me (pretty naive). Also being somewhat anonymous is totally fine for me. But if you play 200z regularly it isnt too hard to figure out who i am, since there are only few finnish regs playing.
First 5figs month (finally): STAKES GRAPH
Not much to say. Played ok most of the month and caught some real heat on last week. Games have been really really juicy lately, which is always nice. Feels like that most winnings were just total gifts, but i take it. Happy to get 50k hands in given its summer here in Finland. I always take summer months pretty laid back what comes to poker. All in all pretty happy how things are going right now. But important not to get overconfident and keep working with my game.
Again, not much to say. Just wanted to share my results.
Sick. Teach me?
Sure, heres few free tips:
100% winrate boost guaranteed. You are welcome.
Sounds about right :D
that's what i call a billion dollar advice :P
sick month, nice one!
Onkleb
You mentioned earlier that you used too much 'Agg%' and 'WWSF' statistics. Can you give a range for these values and interpret how our movements should change?
Barkn
I think with street aggression %, Won When Saw Flop, Went To Showdown and Won at SD% you can categorize players into different types. Classic example would be player with low agg%, WWSF and WTSD but with very high W$SD%. Thats almost always very nitty regular or tight passive fish.
But I think these stats are most useful for categorizing fish and trying to guess how they think about the game.
Thanks for the answer. What I want to ask is, if we classify these values as red, yellow and green, where does red begin and end green?
Ah yes now i got it. Just my thoughts about these, and im not stat expert by any means.
WWSF: Low=under 47%, Normal=50%, High=Over 53%
Won at SD: Low=under 45%, Normal=50%, High=Over 55%
WTSD: Low=Under 26%, Normal= Around 28%, High=Over 30%
Agg%: Low=Under 30%, Normal= Around 37%, High= Over 40%
Just made this up quickly, so dont take these numbers too seriously. Also to point out that preflop ranges have large effect on this stats. For example its totally different to play 30 VPIP and have over 50% WWSF, where as for 20 VPIP guy that should be quite easy. Also if you see 60VPIP funplayer with 37% agg% he is blasting off like crazy, even though hes agg% isnt that high.
Thanks. It really opened my eyes.
Onkleb,
Could you please tell me why using HM2? Is it better than PT4 or H2N in term of stats, filter, etc...?
What BRM do you recommend playing at lower stakes (zoom 25, zoom 50) for a regular player (40 buy-ins, 50, 100?)
Thanks
Im just used to it. Ive been using it since it was released and havent really felt need to change. I think Hand2note is superior compared to PT4 or HM2, but i only use it for range research.
Hmm really tough to say just one number for proper bankroll management. Depends how quickly you are trying to move up stakes, what is your winrate in your stakes, are you ready to move up and down aggressively etc etc. Variance calculator is your friend with stuff like this, just model your current situation and see how much risk you are willing to take. To pick one number, i wouldnt play any stake regularly with under 50 buy-in bankroll.
Hello friends. Time for another month recap. STAKES GRAPH
Pretty solid month all around. I took almost half month off poker so keeping that in mind im pretty satisfied on my volume. I managed to play pretty solid all month if i recall correctly. I have noticed that if you have very structured way of making decisions in game you end up making less really big mistakes. I think i make my biggest mistakes when im trying to actively solve a spot in game which im not sure is +ev to begin with. When im playing my a-game i just stick on stuff im know is +ev and made deviations only if i have really concrete reads on players tendencies.
I kind of decided that ill start implementing 500z more actively after summer. Im not sure im able to dedicate enough time for poker in august so that i would feel really comfortable playing there. I know its not good habit to postpone stuff, but in this case i think its somewhat justified.
Ive been doing pros/cons list on moving up.
Pros
- Lower winrate is enough to reach same results
- Lower rake -> lower winrate is enough. Rake is around 6bb/100 @200z and around 3,5bb/100 at 500z.
- Possibility for making bigger profit $ wise
- Faster progress possible. At least i saw a big jump in my own skill pretty quickly when i moved from 100z to 200z.
- Going forward on my poker career
Cons
- Bigger swings in both $ and bb wise
- Tougher pool -> more difficult to beat
- Games do not run 24/7
- More evening and weekend sessions. Especially evening session are still a challenge for me.
- More stress (maybe?)
If you guys have any points to add im happy to hear them. (:
I think you should play 200z :D
I feel like transitioning to live poker would be your best course of action. I would do it myself if I were at your level
I'm just happy to see you try 500z. Just because you're taking your first steps there doesn't mean you can't play 200z anymore, there is no need to rush anything. It's not an all or nothing thing, you can cherry pick the right times to play 500z and still have 200z as your main game.
About pros and cons; at the end of our lives there are more things we regret not doing than there are things we regret doing. Even if you totally fail at 500z (which I doubt will happen)... at least you can't say you didn't try.
GL you beast
Hello,
I just saw your results of the month so if you're playing z200, did you really lost almost 20 buy'ins in 5k hands at the start of the month?
How do you manage keeping a good poker/motivation even when being in a such downswing.
How often do you look at your results during the month?
Any tips how to keep calm when loosing so much in a short sample like this?
I'm 7 buy'ins down since the start of the month and I'm already frustrated.
my redline is anormaly tumbling down and I really hate that...
Weskerise
Yes around 20. I dont think 20 buyins is like big downswing or anything. Also usually I feel more motivated when im “on a downswing”. And about putting volume in, since I play poker fulltime I don’t really let results justify my volume. Usually what reduces/increases my volume is how much stuff is happening irl.
I try to look my results only on end of month. It really helps your mindset to focus more on playing process rather than outcomes of individual hands. So for you Id suggest to try playing as long without looking at results as possible. If you are the kind of person that checks their graph after every big pot id suggest trying to play one day without results. Then slowly work from there to increase the length.
On deeper level you (and me) have to find out why you think short term results are so important. There is a lot of good mental game material out there to work with. Personally, I always enjoyed Jared Tendlers Mental game or poker 1 and 2. If you haven’t checked them out I highly suggest doing so.
I think you will crush 500z as long as you use some kind of game selection (eg not playing those weird all reg pools which sometimes happen). There are slightly fewer completely braindead regs, but still plenty.
Amazing results, can I ask what makes your w$sd so low? GL at 500z!
zinhao Saulo Ribeiro Fu guys. :D
Resolve
About pros and cons; at the end of our lives there are more things we regret not doing than there are things we regret doing. Even if you totally fail at 500z (which I doubt will happen)... at least you can't say you didn't try.
I totally agree and well said.
plasticelephant Nice to hear that you think that way.
baisedelong I think that is because of my strategy changes. Basically with my new strategy i win more pots without showdown than earlier. That makes my redline go up and w$sd go down. Im not sure yet if thats the most +ev strategy, but ill just give it a shot and see how it goes.
Sick results wp, playing mostly 4 tables or 3?
Thanks! 3 tables of zoom is enough action for me. I used to play 4 but im able to focus better with 3.
Volume
I dont remember when ive played this poker in such short time. Maybe back in fulltiltdays when i had to grind 100k hands to get double raceback or something. Also i changed my rhythm so that i only play in the morning / daytime. Im more focused, motivated and in better mindset when playing in the morning. Also i checked my database for over 1,2M hands and my winrate is very similar in morning and evening games. And even if i sacrifice some ev for that in think its worth it in bigger picture.
Also i managed to get back into exercising and meditation. Im trying to exercise every day i play and meditate every single day. So my perfect poker day routine looks something like this:
-Breakfast
-First session
-Lunch
-Second session
-Exercise
-Meditation
-Free time
Hoping to keep up with this and see how it goes. With my sample of 8 days feels great but maybe thats partly because im running super hot in tables.
imo i thing it would be better if you put the exercise somewhere in between sessions .. i fell very clear difference in my game and focus if i exercise eat something and fire up a sesh after a bit.. the meditation is fine after done playing to unwind and go into relax mode till sleep.. but whatever works not everyone is the same :D
Do you see yourself exercising as the first thing in the morning? Because all the succesfull people, before going to work -especially for a performance work- highly recommends to start the day activating both brain and body.
Personally it changed completely my winrate and my overall productivity!
Before playing I'm now trying to do meditation or visualization + gym session/run (with motivational music) and I'm super happy with the results!
G0LD3NF1SH
Yea ive read/heard about the benefits for exercising first thing in the morning. Thats something i should test out and see how it works for me. Now my warmup routine for morning sessions is wake up -> 2cups of coffee + breakfast -> random rio videos for 5-10mins -> to tables.
Ive been trying out a lot of different warmup routines in past years from really long and detailed ones to basically just firing up tables immediately. Surprisingly very modest / simple warmup seems to suit me better than very long and detailed one. I noticed that when i did long warmups i build up a lot of pressure for the session. So i ended up trying too much at tables and therefore played poorly.
What im trying to say that its important to try out different things and understand that what works for one doesnt necessary work for another. But if you have some habit/action which is highly suggested by a lot of successful people and research its just arrogant to not try it out.
Apparently i was right about my hot run. STAKES GRAPH
Not much to say really. Everybody spewed when i had the nuts and folded when i had a bluff. But thats variance.
Taking one week+ off poker, but hoping to reach at least 40k hands this month. After that its time to really work on my game and start to test out 500z.
Crushing it! Enjoy your well deserved week off!
Sick result man, your WWSF stat is crazy ;) GL!
you wwsf is indeed crazy. if I was playing vs you I wouldnt fold a single bluffcatcher ;)
Another month in books : STAKES GRAPH
I took almost 2weeks off and had only few days time to play. Ran pretty poorly at the end of the month, but still really hard to complain.
Now i have to start preparing mentally for 500z , especially to the swings. Im somewhat confident that im able to do well there, as long as i keep doing my own thing and not let variance affect my play. Im probably going to do some table selection and maybe mix stakes. All in all i hope to get descent volume at 500z before end of the year.
Dude thats pretty sick, do you feel like people are not playing back at you? or do you just really have most spots really defined?
Rough estimate, i say around 20% of regs try to counter my strategy somehow. From all regs id say 5% do it intelligently and others do it poorly.
Imo the trend in these past years has been to mostly focus on your own "GTO" strategy and not really care about what other players do. Sure having solid theory foundation is important, but that doesnt mean that you have to try mimic piosolver betsizes and frequencies in every node. What i think is more important is trying to understand what factors create the equilibrium strategy and how solvers strategy changes when opponent isnt playing perfectly. For that nodelock function is your best friend.
I do have blueprint strategies for many really common spots that i follow quite rigidly. But i do follow my intuition and feel a lot, especially when im playing my a-game. Its probably illegal to say that in 2019, but i truly believe there is unconscious pattern recognition and knowledge that you can access when your playing your best and have played and studied the game a lot.
Nice Post!
I don't think this is anything controversial. Top performers in most fields including sports, golf, arts and chess mostly uses their intuition when performing.
GL
Yeah that actually makes a lot of sense. good job man! Keep it up!
Never a BE month right? 1 or 2 bb/100? Nopeeee! Always the standard 8bb/100 + month. Sicks results as usually. GL on NL500z :D
Actually i think i had around 100k hands be strecth at start of 2019. But yea been running extremely hot these last months, but thats part of the game
September: STAKES GRAPH . Had to use H2N since it seems to work with stars cashout hands.
Good volume for my standards. Was able to play my first sessions at 500z and i actually played pretty well there. Felt confident and followed my gameplan. Results for the month arent great, but still ok and taking monthly variance into consideration nothing to worry about. So i should be pleased and confident moving on.
But my first feelings when i looked my results were disappointed and doubtful on my game. Reason for that was that i thought i did better results wise. I felt that id be close to 5 figure month, so when i saw my results i didnt win 4,5k this month but lost around 5k according to my mental bookkeeping. So my expectations were way too high and ended up effecting me negatively, even though everything is actually going really well. So if you are anything like me, really try to notice your expectations and manage them.
I will keep refreshing Pro Videos page in hope to see Onkleb 500z-First Blood title. I just wanna see you play man.
dizelup
Haha maybe some day ... ;)
Hi Onkleb,
very nice results.
How important is your high preflop RFI for your strategy? If you play for example 20/17/6 VPIP/PFR/3B and play postflop same like now, you will get circa 2x more hands per hour. You could get more $ per hour. I doubt your winrate will decrease so much. Do you ever tried to play tighter? What motivates you to play this loose?
Thank you
/\ nit detected
kidding, but lol, so funny to see how common it is in this industry for people to be totally biased towards being a nit
3b 6% living on the edge this days =)
jm88
Thanks. (:
I just play every hand that i think is +EV for me to play. I dont know how to assess which +EV open hands are more just better to fold in order to save x seconds. Also i dont think playing few VPIP% tighter would give me that much more hands/h. But in bigger picture could be that id get a bit better hourly like for ex. 8 tabling zoom (4x200z + 4x100z), but i truly think playing fewer tables and really focused is better way long term.
I think that kind of mindset where you start to pass on small +EV opportunities to save time, reduce variance or just to pure laziness is very very dangerous. I might start as a ok adjustment, but how do know when to stop? Because a lot of spots in poker are quite close, so passing on all of them will turn you to huge nit which will bleed a lot of bbs to more aware and active opponents.
Also treating pfranges, as any other part in poker as static is just stupid in my opinion.
Simple example. You have 4 different player profiles opening BTN:
1. Tight passive fit-or-fold funplayer
2. Very loose, spashly funplayer
3. Weak regular who has massive leaks on simple postflop spots
4. Linuslove (or who is good nowadays in poker idk)
How does your preflop range look vs these individual profiles? If your answer is i just play solver ranges because they are perfect then...
Thank you guys. Especially Onkleb (:
If 20/17/6 is nit, what is optimal stats for you then? It depends on stake/rake a lot I think. Majority of NL500z pool actually play similar preflop stats like Onkleb (because of lower rake + high postflop skill). But below NL100z rake is so ridiculously high. Can you turn your LAG profiles into profit below NL100z? Feel free to share your experience (:
jm88 ure being totally biased toward nits. i played 27/21+ since NL10 and beated all stakes thru 500. i have 20+ students beating microstakes playing 27/21+, this rake stuff is just an excuse for you to be more nitty and something that u cant prove because is not real. 20/17/6 is not nit, is super nit. and this is not even close to "an optimal vpip/pfr" btw.
idk where the nit fest comes, and i really dont care, im just ashamed for the ones who spread this stuffs for naive begginers. i usually don post on forums but i felt like u really wanted to see other point of view so i decided to post. GL!
zinhao thank you for your post. I just read this: https://www.runitonce.com/chatter/mobius-poker-blog/
Very interesting for me too. I'm just gaining info. Trying to get thru low stakes. The fact is, being a nit got me nowhere yet. Also placing a lot of volume neither.
jm88 Pretty much what zinhao said. I played 100z in 2017-2018 with over 30vpip and my winrate was around 8bb/100. If id had to play lets say nl25 i would play looser than i play now, not tighter. That because my assumption is that average nl25 player has a bit more leaks than nl200 player, so im able to make more hands +EV.
Onkleb zinhao thank you guys! I think I got the point now. I will try to master it asap. Today I tried to play 30/25/12 and finally stopped bleeding on redline (:
One last thing. Can you recommend me best way from low stakes according to you? Classic beginner issue zoom vs regular. For simplicity:
a) 1x zoom
b) 1x regular
c) multitable zoom
d) multitable regular
I think c) is totally worst. It was my daily routine for last few months and BE results. a) + d) is optimal, but don't know which path to choose. Also b) is very learning friendly, but maybe a little bit extreme from number of hands view. But maybe it should't be my target for now, placing hands. This thinking freezed me on low stakes so...
Thank you for your help.
jm88 i agree with what george plasticelephant said down here \/ about game selection, and obviously i totally disagree with the nit stuff, but not gonna repeat myself. I think game selection is very important although i dont do it LOL and just love to play zoom if i have the opportunity. Overall i would advise what i advise everyone: test stuffs by yourself, give yourself the opportunity to know how you gonna feel in each spot and be patient. poker is not going anywhere so just try the possibilities and give some time to understand the process. thats what i did and what i still do when i face more than one path! all of them have pros and cons imo. zoom is way more comfortable to play but is def not the same EV, so bigger downswings etc.. reg tables are slower, higher EV, lower DS but of course you play less and gotta put more tables etc.. so in general imo is very very personal! :) GL!!
As ever, nice month OP :D
jm88
I don't think mindlessly playing more hands is better, but agree there are enough opportunities to expand your pf range that you should take.
If you don't have a plan or reason for expanding beyond monker though I think you should err towards the nitty side, rake is a serious deal. And you should adjust heavily to the rake structure on your chosen games.
I would reccomend regular tables over zoom every time since leaerning to game select is so important in poker, and may as well get in the habit from the lowest stakes (plus extreme rake pushes me towards selecting harder at lower honestly). Also play somewhere with good rb (hello RIO poker :D). I cost myself soooo much just mindlessly playing fastfold at times in my career when the bb/100 at other tables at much higher stakes can be much higher.
also OP do you feel zoom games have got significantly worse since the table change? I've been monitoring the lobby and seems 500 particularly, 200 to a lesser extent but still noticeable have been really terrible at times.
I havent noticed anything. But i dont really poolselect anymore in 200z, i just play my hours. About 500z cant really say much, since it runs so poorly on my hours + ive been playing under 10k hands there :D
jm88
Basically what other posters said about table selecting. Try stuff out and see what works for you. Im totally biased to zoom since ive been playing it since it launched on FTP.
Onkleb so what do you think about the patrick howard post on zoom?
I agree with most what he wrote. No point in grinding zoom with few bb/100 wr playing 100k+ hands / month and not studying at all. But there isnt of course anything special in fast poker formats that make them less beatable than any other poker format.
Hello why are you using H2N instead of HM3 if it is juste concerning the import of all in cashout hands ?
I have H2N subscription and its way faster with hand importing and everything else. Actually i should create a hud to H2N and start only use that.
Tough month so far. Playing ok but just getting destroyed in close spots. Probably just variance but still not super fun. On positive side ive played almost 30k hands already, which is huge for me. Seems like im still on track reaching my yearly volume goal of 550k hands.
Also i finally got really into mass data analysis. Yea i have had knowledge on most common spots already, but i havent really done proper study on that subject myself. Also i think its useful to do this stuff yourself. Easier to integrate when you have seen actual numbers yourself, rather than someone tells you about a certain spot.
Ok time to wrap up yet another month: GRAPH STAKES
Really swingy month overall. But still managed to catch some rungood and end up in positive. I might play few more days this month, depending how i feel. Im not burnt out or anything like that, just really really tired and mentally not the best. Doing stuff like checking results and really focusing on short term results. Ive been neglecting mental game study and meditation, which of course affect in a negative way. Also autumm has a big effect on overall energy levels, since its total darkness and rain 24/7.
But on the bright side, good volume, positive month, beer in fridge. Happy days.
Really nice results. I do not remember if i saw a losing month since i started reading the blog. It is even more impressive considering that i now have seen few streamers from 200z/500z who describe you as very spewy. So you have to do a lot stuff right which other regs are not able recognize since you constantly post 5bb+/100 winrates.
How do you succeed in not checkin results for a whole month? This is something which i struggle a lot and do have a receipt how to avoid this no matter what i tried. GL in novemeber.
Thank you sir. (:
Just looked my results for this year and i have one breakeven month and longest breakeven stretch is 100k hands. But all in all variance has been pretty kind to me. Also i think my playing style and big edge vs funplayers helps to reduce variance.
Well i have to agree with their description. :D But seriously, my poker philosophy is trying to seek spots where i can exploit as much as possible. Of course im wrong quite often, and when i get "caught" it looks stupid as hell. But as long as my plays work vs majority of the pool im happy. Even if streaming regulars think im bad and spewy, i think im able to live with that.
Quick tips, hide all your results as well as you can. Delete results stat from HM2, hide cashier, filter all stats for wrong month etc etc. Start with small steps. If you are type that checks results after every 5bb+ pot, try first to play whole session without looking and see how you feel after that. Then slowly work to increase length you are able to do. And notice how it makes you feel.
In bigger picture, try to change your perspective as long term as you possibly can. How does your next 1 million hands look like and how big impact this session has on that. When you think in really long term your mistakes, lost pots and variance doesnt feel so big and relevant. This is the part ive been struggling with lately. In the moment your playing and making decisions its super easy to forget big picture and put huge weight on individual hand or action.
I have no idea if i even answered your question.. :D
Pape_Sux nitstreamers
seems so bro, zinhao
Thanks for the reply. A lot of stuff what you said regarding not to check results, I have already implemented. However, my need to check my results is mostly related to sessions were i have the feeling that i am running awful.
I can avoid to check my reults for weeks if i do not have the feeling that i am running terrible.
It is very weird because most grinders want to check their results when they feel that are having a great session results wise.
Nah im exactly like you with this one. No need for checking results if im winning, but if i lose and even worse make mistakes suddenly urge to look is way bigger.
For that i think we both should look deeper why thats the case. So reflection, writing stuff out and meditation seem good places to start.
Few days off from poker really helped. Feeling really refreshed mentally. Only two month left for 2019, so my goals for rest of the year
Other goals:
- Meditate every day
- Check results first time after last session for 2019
Thats enough to get things started. Lets hope i can finnish 2019 strong and book a solid year. Gl.
Nice results as usually. Why did you play only NL200z? I though you decided to start playing NL500z since october.
Good question. One big reason is that 500z runs pretty seldom when i play. Also wasnt feeling that confident and ready mentally to play there last month. And playing there isnt the top thing on my goal/priority list.
Hi guys. Time for another month recap.
But kind of hard to recap much since i decided not to look my result before the year is over. But what i can say is that ive played around 60k hands since last update. So im keeping up with my goal for reaching 100k hands on these last months. Also i managed to play whole month without checking my results or even my stats. Not looking my stats because they might indicate how im running. Also i had bad habit of checking my WTSD, WWSF etc. between sessions to see how im doing.
Pretty crazy to think that its almost the end of 2019. 13 playing days and im ready to wrap-up this year. Im pretty confident im able to book another solid year, unless something crazy happens on these last few days. But more on that later, lets first finish this year strong.
Since i have no graphs to share lets end with few funny hands:
1 No respect
2 Regs like to raise thin
3 And valuebet
4 And again. This guy is even a winning player as far as i know
5 But i do know my valubets
Thats all for now, have a great weekend :D
Do you think it's still very bad to not valuebet w/o Jd if villain is unwilling to bluffcatch w enough pair+blocker type hands? (3rd hand) I think BDFD completing is quite a big concern. I'd still valuebet, but I think it's sort of close, nah?
4th hand doesn't seem all that bad to me again :D I guess It's still valuebet in equilibrium but once again if SB folds a few more bluffcatchers than they should, value bet or check probably becomes very close in value?
I don't look at results/stats like you and I build some script to block PS buttons and cashier, as well as PT4 during the session.
You should try as well, saving you a lot of willpower
PrankCallRiver
In theory, both hands are pure bets. So there has to be an exploitable reason for villains to check.
In order check to be higher EV than bet few things have to be true.
I think those are too big assumptions to make to justify deviating massively from equilibrium.
I think this is quite common though process leak. Focusing only on one part of players range and weighting it incorrectly. Like in example hand, sure OOP has flushes but they are only 10% of total range. So 9/10 times OOP doenst have a flush -> so your xb wins around 90% of time.
Sure if you are an excellent note taker and you have really specific reads you can justify a checkback otr. So if you have a read that your villain overfolds massively on flush/bdfd rivers (around 70-80%) AND at the same time checkraises balanced range then fine. If your reasoning for checking back river is "omg, flush hit, he has it, hes going to see i have a set and cr me, i check." then its not enough.
forCarlotta
That script sounds pretty cool. I barely know what scripting is so i have no competence making such a thing. :D Also only places that might reveal my results are cashier when i buy in and active session tab on HM2. So there isnt much to use willpower really.
Thanks for explanations, I ran a sim few days back on 4th hands, I think BB actually check something like 20% otr w his exact combo, but I think your 2nd point highlights very well why we probably should just shift it into a pure bet, I was thinking if you going to mention this point or not :D
About JJ hands, I agree that it is still a valuebet but it's not like printing money what I meant, mostly because of 1st point u've made, I do think people on average don't like bluffcatching on runouts like these at least in micro-low stakes, it might be that mid stakes players doing a better job both finding bluffs(as agressors) on these runouts and as well bluffcatching.
Thanks for taking time to explain :)
Nice ones. Hands 2-4 the opponents are as passive as at NL5 ;-)
Could you explain your thought process at Hand 5? Thx in Advance.
Yea some guys are for sure :D
H5. Quite standard triplebarrelbluff vs unknown one tabler. After this hand i took a note and will never bluff this quy again otr.
Hi guys.
Last two months went quite well. Had pretty descent routines and i was in good place mentally almost all the time. Results werent that impressive but still happy on my overall performance.
But now its time to recap 2019:
STAKES 2019 GRAPH 2019
Whole year went pretty smoothly actually. I really enjoy my new routine for playing one long session in the morning and then taking rest of the day off. Earlier i used to play one session in the morning and another in the evening. It was really hard to get my mind off from poker, so id spend whole day thinking about poker on some degree. But with new routine its easier to clear your mind and fully focus on other stuff after playing. Yea might be that im sacrificing some EV when skipping evening games, but in bigger picture in ready to do that.
About my game; I did end up chaning my strategy quite a bit trough out the year, which you can see from the graph. Lots of calibration back and worth which was quite challenging time to time. Its easy to forget stuff that works when you are trying to develop other part of your game. For ex. i really tried to focus on finding spots where to bluffcatch more. What happened was that i forgot the right solution to most spots, which is to overfold like crazy. But you really cant learn if you dont try stuff out and make mistakes.
About results; All in all in pretty pleased on my results. Sure winrate isnt anything special, but its still descent. Also the swings are actually quite small, which indicates that I might be doing something right on small to medium pots. I managed to pull out pretty good volume for my standards, given that I spend one month totally off from poker and took lots of days off during summer. I felt I had the more balance between poker and other life that I have had in many years.
So lets check how i did on my goals for this year (from my first post):
So whats next? I dont know. First i take few weeks off on holidays to really reset. Than i start to dig whats the direction i want to take with poker. But well see.
That all for now. Merry christmas and happy new year and gl at fishy December tables.
Toni
You suck at NL2.
Good job and merry christmas!
congratz! an inspiration
Let's fucking gooo!!!!!
grats man, very sick results and very glad my playing schedule no longer coincides with yours (you-mad-br0) :)
yo nice podcast with JVL btw
Thanks. :) Nah im harmless vs regs so nothing to worry.
Redline year :) comparing last two years to this one. I guess you definitely have made adjustments to your game.
Love following the thread mate, you are a big inspiration. New thread and goals coming for 2020? :)
Thank you sir! (:
Havent really decided my goals yet. I'll try to map my goals when i get back from my holiday. About blogging im really uncertain. Havent been able to write anything interesting really lately. Also im trying to check my results as little as possible this year, so there isnt even many graphs to post (: . But lets see...
Hello Onkleb Huge Fan. I wonder what you think about something.
I think it makes sense to wake up early and play. There are fewer people standing at this hour, and there are fewer people to bother me. So I can focus on my game better. I usually have a routine before I start playing. I've recently noticed that my routine (meditation, stretching, cold shower, video watching) has spent a lot of my willpower. Do you think it's a good idea to sit directly at the table after watching 10 minutes of video as soon as you wake up?
When to play and how to prepare to your session are highly personal choices imo. Some like to study before playing, some do 1 hour long warmup and some just jump into tables. I noticed that too long / complex warmup doesnt work for me.
So id suggest you try different stuff out and see how it works. If you feel your current warmup is too much, try a lighter version for a month or so and check if that works better.
I could have misjudged the author of this journal, felt a creepy jail vibe coming from the place. Not any of my concern, just something negative to start the day.
Hi guys. Just a quick update before going on vacation.
January graph stakes
Ran hot and played ok -> profit. Im probably going to start new journal for 2020 but im not really sure yet. Feels like only thing i post are results and few lines of random rambling. Also my goal for this year is to check my results as seldom as possible (probably every 3 months or so) so theres even less stuff to post. But lets see.
Anyways im heading for Thailand for 3 weeks and after that i have to decide what to do with poker. Whether to play 200z or try to move up. But fortunately i have 3 weeks to decide that. :D
Hey man, outstanding results, I've always wondered why you were not moving up though? Or playing softer games on other sites, the only upside of playing zoom on starts is volume
I think that you're not skipping limits shows how mentally good you are. Most people who got your results were already playing the upper limits. I have great respect for you.
ChaoRen123 GocceGocce
Havent moved up because weaknesses on My mental game. Fear of failure and monetary losses on short term. But i feel like ive developed a lot on those lately. At least im not as tough on myself as i used to be and take variance More lightly. But not trying to move up is More weakness than strenght.
My dream graphic :)
Redline went up. I think you focused more on big pots. You used Turn or River Overbet more. Likewise, you used more turn - river Raise. Am I right?
Didnt change anything big. Just some small tweaks here and there but nothing special. So mainly just variance that month went so smoothly.
For you guys that missed it, i started new journal for 2020.
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