Hi! Variance is tough in NLHE, 6-max. Over 8k hands everything can happen. EVERYTHING. 8k is nothing. I recently read a great article on variance - was in German though - which explained, why you likely need to play between 0.5 and 1.0 million hands before you get an IDEA of your true winrate.

Have a look at your standard deviance - it likely will be somewhere between 80 and 100 I guess? This means, your expected winrate after 100 hands will be - say 2bb, but the real winrate can swing between -98 and +102.

So again, 8k is nothing. You are running unlucky - in regard to all-in-situations. Unfortunately that does not mean that you "actually" were a winning player - even your "expected winrate" is bound to massive variance, the yellow line just shows the all-ins. It does not show if you constantly suck out with your 3-outers on the river. :)

Cliffs: short-term variance is brutal, the lines will (very likely) converge eventually, given enough (!) time.

Thank you for the reply. I completely agree that 8k is too small of a sample to infer anything meaningful about win/loss rate. Nonetheless, I find some comfort in knowing these two lines are supposed to converge eventually.

you could easily go another 1 million hands of them continuously spreading apart