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Achieving Higher Balance

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Achieving Higher Balance

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Nick Howard 9 years, 4 months ago

My best friend is a dj in las vegas. Last night we were talking and he was telling me how he's mastered crowd energy. He said when he's on stage he has a heightened peripheral sense of what the crowd is feeling, and he lets that direct his playlist. I thought, "I know that feeling, i have it at the table".

He felt strongly that this was a sensitivity which had to be earned through experience. He said it was the hard way, but the only way. The only way to be sure that you had achieved balance through contrast. Then you can allow yourself to know. Doubtlessness. An absurdly arrogantly/humble doubtlessness.

Imo, it's this trending toward doubtlessness that is the single most important factor in a player's evolution. It drives everything. It is an inclusive catalyst to his growth and understanding. Let's face it, poker is personal as fuck. It forces you face to face with your own insecurities. You either energize that insecurity by remaining overly-insistent and protective of your paradigm, or you surrender into more balanced lines of sight. Option 1 commences futility, option 2 ignites a vertical acceleration in your consciousness.

We're afraid of doubtlessness b/c we believe it to be reckless and arrogant. This is distorted. When doubtlessness is not being used to compensate for fear, it's a recipe for accuracy and total humility. Justifying the fear in your heart requires nothing of you. To become truly doubtless risks everything. Everything you thought you knew about yourself is surrendered, daily, for the chance to explore the possibility of something more real, more true, more balanced. Arrogance is stagnant, contracted. Doubtlessness is super-accelerated living.

The future breed is intuitive, and therefore doubtless. They're doubtless because intuition exists before the distortion of fear. Intuition is not always objectively accurate -- not even close in the linear sense. But it governs a process of vertically accelerated re-balancing in the subjectivity that is unrivaled by the linear mind. It expands through multi-dimensional avenues faster than linearity can.

Intuition is not in opposition to analysis, It is inclusive of analysis. It is the subconscious integration of understanding how to detect avenues of maximal benefit, using an internal balance point as its light-house. This balance exists inside each of us, and can only be blocked by arrogance. The future breed is among us. Choose your paradigms wisely, and make sure you're doing it for yourself.

<3

bkice11 9 years ago

A few Questions and comments.

"a distortional imbalance that is forcing the student to make poor decisions in certain spots"

I don't think distortion is the only reason people make mistakes. There are many skills involved in proper thinking in poker that people just haven't developed enough. For example inference, deduction, statistical analysis, problem solving skills (mostly the habit of thinking sequentially) and this is just naming a few. Perhaps this is what you intended to mean by "distortional imbalance" but I don't think that's the correct word for it.

"If you've had a coach for over a year, fire him, imho."

Doesn't players in every single sport or profession have coaches for longer than this? Anyways I think you're writing is great, please do more.

Nick Howard 9 years, 4 months ago

If you want to make your hand history reviews more efficient, start analyzing them from your peak emotional states. Peak states occur when you relax into a subtler frequency domain. When you are less contracted, you can naturally expose more distortion in your thought processes.

Make it a conscious choice that the next time you stumble yourself into a great mood, you're going to review your last 3000 hands. Do a >25bb pot filter and mark all hands that you're not positive you played correctly. Dont bitch out. Every hand that you're not positive on, mark it. Get really honest. If it hurts a little, it's good. Know that it's good b/c you're busting through the thresholds of your old paradigm. You're expanding. You're challenging bias head on. Get used to that feeling, reassociate it and invite it. Leave with refined perspectives on hands that previously hurt to look at. Your game will thank you.

Disharmonist 8 years, 11 months ago

What do you suggest when, after reassessing the handrevue in the most honest and rational way possible, one comes to the conclusion that none of the hands has been played incorrectly in anyway?

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

Volume is really overrated. This isn't excuse not to play hands, it's an invitation to hold yourself to a more inclusive standard of balance. When things are left unhandled in your personal life, they filter into your game. You become inaccurate, bias, distorted. Hands played from here will offer diminished returns.

Give attention to the circumstances and relationships in your life that are demanding balance. Make them a priority and don't rescind. Know that you're increasing your winrate by handling your stress, and know that you can handle your stress just by responding to life from your integrity. Play half the volume with double the winrate, and close the books every month with results that you're proud of, on and off the tables. Study more when you're running bad. Help your girlfriend handle shit when she's overwhelmed. Refuse to engage in negativity. Steady yourself in an inner balance that is unchallenged by the winds of life.

Then sit down and play your fucking heart out.

sauloCosta10 8 years, 4 months ago

Damn this post is so good that I had to read it again. I have no words to express my gratitude for what you are doing for the poker community. You are a major inspiration to all of us

Maestrrro 9 years, 3 months ago

Nick you say you play 2knl on soft sites...Can you tell us how is it possible to put in decent volume at 2knl if you don t play on stars. Even if you combine 888,Tilt and Party( if you consider these soft) it is very hard to get enough action, so which other sites can you get action at 2knl?

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

You'll basically trade volume for winrate. Winrates of over 10bb/100 at 2knl are currently achievable. I am not interested in revealing the sites that this holds true for, for obvious reasons.

25k hands a month is more than enough volume at >10bb/100. The variance is substantially less over small sample sizes with a winrate that high.. it's very hard to have a losing month.

Maestrrro 9 years, 3 months ago

I respect your answer Nick, and I also respect your skills to get more than 25k hands in without playing on any of the 4 mentioned sites at 2knl and having a wr more than 10bb. Most people have problems putting in 30k hands a month at 1k and 600 without those 4 platforms... Keep crushing and gl.

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

It's common to find someone who's interested in personal development. It's rare to find someone that leverages from the level of his own predefinitions.

Predefinitions are the subtlest assumptions that spin the web of a person's reality. They are responsible for the contextual bias of the subjectivity. We all predefine our realities before we even engage with life experientially. The distortional biases become so subtle at the level of predefinitions that they go almost completely undetected, even in people who are more or less "booked up" on self development. Naturally, that which remains undetected cannot be properly challenged for its credibility. In my experience this results in a deluded sense of contextual progress for the self-developer. It's like wiggling around in a paradigm, with a keen insight here or there, only to end up with the same obstacles and unbalanced paradoxes year after year. The poorly investigated self is the cause of all redundancy. You can think you're the most devoted explorer ever, and get virtually nowhere, b/c you're actually just caught in arrogant, narrow-minded distortion. Spinning wheels in your own little corner of existence. Call it horizontal futility.

Going vertical is a whole new ball game. Vertical guy doesn't play within a paradigm for longer than it takes him to expose the paradigm for it's imbalance. He seeks out the thresholds and busts through..simply by silencing distortion of his own bias contextual assumption. He's not efforting his way through resistance. He's simply clarifying, and emerging, into subtler paradigms where rules change. He's amassing free will. Self development is a weak-ass hobby compared to this. Vertical acceleration will push you to the limits of your current capacity. Black hole shit. You will be forced to surrender all footing and all sense of management. Truly balanced expansion demands higher levels of humility, and less insistence on the real definition of "control". The concept of personal control you've built an allegiance to is no longer compatible at this level of inner flexibility. I have no good ending for this, bc i intuit the process to be infinite. You just find yourself emerging, then stabilizing for as long as you prefer in your new paradigm, and when enough incentive builds, you decisively ascend to the next relevant balance point. Going vertical doesn't make you cool or brave. It makes you honest and real. Cool and brave are like an aftershock. k i dont have an ending.

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

When you allow yourself to see relevance where you used to see randomness, you're aligning yourself with higher balance. Simply b/c you're open and non-insistent. Most people think that it's intelligent to conclude that life is just random. It's actually highly assumptive. To strip life of the possibility of intelligently orchestrated randomness is probably man's greatest arrogance. In the words of Terrence Mckenna, "if you can believe that, you can believe anything!"

Disharmonist 8 years, 11 months ago

I disagree.

Some perceived randomness is a explicable series of events or processes yet to be explained. Pretending that any biograpical pattern can be determined by whatever kind of indicator is just as ignorant, as even the greatest minds couldnt and cannot find answers to the universes´ mysteries or define life in a transcedental manner that does not include a fixed religous world view, so far from being objectifiable.

Any phenomenon, may it be scientific or spiritual, complex enough to overwhelm a single human mind will include some kind of randomness because all available factors (of which some might not even be noticed) of a certain event or outcome cannot be overseen.

Lastly "randomness" as a mathematical expression is a undeniable entity of nature, which all of have experienced in one of the simplier forms by playing poker.

MrSneeze 9 years, 3 months ago

Great work Nick, I really appreciated reading you again.

It's common to find someone who's interested in personal development. It's rare to find someone that leverages from the level of his own predefinitions.
Predefinitions are the subtlest assumptions that spin the web of a person's reality. They are responsible for the contextual bias of the subjectivity. We all predefine our realities before we even engage with life experientially. The distortional biases become so subtle at the level of predefinitions that they go almost completely undetected, even in people who are more or less "booked up" on self development.

This is incredibly powerful and true. We are structured, conditionned, and perpetually re-structured and re-conditionned by our actions, or rather our re-actions, which are dependent upon this bias, or veil, of subjectivity. Admitting that we are made by, and for, the circumstances, is a source of incredible development and potential restructuration. Yet, it's difficult to accept for the human brain, because it also means embracing the perpetual transformation of things, including 'us'. We basically don't own ourselves, but are really convinced we do.
To illustrate this reality, one just has to see how most humans tend to see death as an accident, something that cuts life so to speak, when clearly death is the only non-accidental event in our life, that's the only certainty following birth. Maybe we could say that life is the accident of death, rather? Or, we can also contemplate the perpetual movement of birth and death, in everything, see its continuity despite time. We, also, can be born again every instant, but def means letting death makes its cleansing. For things to be born again, some things have to die. Dead plants feed the soil.

We think we are something, we define ourselves, we tell stories. Everybody has stories to tell. But the story of 'us', this is something that doesn't exist, or only exist in the horizontal realm you evoked. Just the same way we represent time as an horizontal, historical line, usually. What would be then the verticality of time? The density of time? Its depth?
=> We are not the stories we tell ourselves ; they are probably necessary as a structure of being, merely to avoid dissolution of the psyche, have some confidence to rely on ; but that's not what we are. The stories we're so keen on telling, the stories of our achievements or sufferings, they are like marks in the sand easily covered by the sea.

So, instead of clinging to the story of the self, focus on training the witnessing consciousness, an awareness that observes body, mind, soul, as not ours. We observe ourselves as we would observe a stranger, except for ourselves we do have all the data available. BUT, can we go with this data without judging? Without being attached to what hurts?
'Free from oneself, free from everything' (Shunryu Suzuki)

IMHO, being able to evolve from 'states' of being, paradigms as you call, or biases of subjectivity, really comes from letting go of the trauma, stop including it as a part of the self ; indeed that is a process of un-identification. I'm merely saying that based on my observation of humans, including myself, in the sense that traumatic experiences, suffering, are usually harder to let go, we cling to them so much because they give meaning in the horizontal realm of existence. Truly, it seems that humans are stuck in an infinite variety of paradigms because there is a need of identification. It's pretty tough to accept to be a ball of energy in motion in the universe, and only one among many. Few people can live without meaning, and that is what creates new paradigms again and again.

And there, as the yin and yang, all new paradigm offer the possibility of its overtaking. We climb on our own head!

There is indeed, as you mention, a sense of abandon. Surrending your footing, let go of controlling one's life, let go of concepts. And an ever-going process for sure.

Keep it up!

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

imo new years resolutions are usually overrated. mostly because they dont end up being executed with integrity. if you make integrity your only resolution, your actions will align in a maximally beneficial upward spiral of clarity, productivity, and freedom.
ive mentioned before that my chosen definiton of intelligence is the ability to perceive the single most beneficial avenue at any given time.
Now here is, imo, the most concise and balanced definition of integrity. You wont find it in the dictionary:

Integrity - the understanding that you do not need to deprive or manipulate anyone else in order to get what you want.

simple, balanced, true.
GL in 2016

chimpraiser 9 years, 3 months ago

Hey Nick,

We used to play together a little on Carbon poker(I was hate2cugo) a few years back. When you first where signed by RIO, I was excited to see someone from my small corner of the poker world be recognized and was hoping to be able to learn to beat you by watching your videos. After watching a few, I began to really enjoy them for their overall educational value. Over the last several months, I've occasionally wondered what happened to your videos as I really enjoyed them. I finally searched you here hoping for news of new videos and found this thread which I also enjoyed. GL in 2016 and keep posting.

Cheers,

Sam

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

When you engage the belief that you are on the receiving end of existence, you are entering distortion. This is not the natural, balanced state of consciousness. You are a generator.

Mainstream self development is decelerated and redundant because it seeks answers from a position of unchallenged bias. If we could simply shake the habit of generating the victimized state of receptivity, we wouldnt need self development, or religion.

The key is exposing the receptive habit as a deep-rooted assumption. When properly exposed for its bias, the victimized experience fades into a freshly balanced, more inclusive paradigm. This is the vertical, efficient path. It trades over-analysis for vigilance and honesty regarding the nature of one's direct experience.

We may never be able to reach perfect levels of clarity due to the limitations of the mind, but we can certainly traverse the infinite gradient of subjectivity toward higher and higher balance.

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

i own a 30 lb dog named Tom. i wanted a lab, but i travel too much for a large dog to be a reasonable option. He's extremely playful and eager to learn, but on account of his breed's imbalances, he'll never have that icy pimp demeanor. He's constantly getting distracted by strangers who want to meet him, and sometimes it's hard to peel him away without a pretty harsh "COME". This usually makes me look and feel like an asshole, and ruins the vibe of his interaction.

This month i'm working on my whistle. i never really learned. in fact i'm awful. but i believe a man should be able to whistle for his dog to come, so i'm committed to this shit.

Why the whistle? because it feels too insistent to take an overly playful dog's demeanor away, just bc it'd make my life easier. It also sucks when i have to break up the party with a tone that scares little children. The whistle is the higher balance. I'm workin on a real nice one. A crowd pleaser. i look cool, kids stay happy, dog can wander. Balance is always in the best interest of all.

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

ive met very few players that come from as over-analytical a makeup as i did. most of them probably burn out before i get a chance to meet them. Its a stubbornness unlike anything else. Experientially, Its like chinese water torture with a sped-up drip. But theres a certain earnestness about it thats actually useful, if only as a catylyst to personal growth. Its high fidelity, filtered through conditioned arrogance.

Catalysts usually accelerate things, which is why i hesitate to use that word. Because in a way i can look back on my 20s and see epic stagnation -- i wasn't inactive, i was always just spinning wheels in rabbit holes that offered very little benefit. But from a more inclusive angle, it was this hyperactive adventure in futility that balanced me very quickly once i finally saw through it.

I had a dmt trip about a year ago where at some point i spontaneously posed the the Q: "Why did i choose to suffer thru such manic futility?" Then Einstein's face appeared and said "A self-learned lesson is the smartest!". It stuck with me bc dmt is usually a very intuitive drug, but this was a direct drop. It also made me feel cool to know that Einstein cared about me.

So this is my advantage: epic amounts of clarity (through contrast) on the nature of futility as it applies to the human condition. If i had to summarize what ive gleaned from my journey, id say this:

The happiness or improvement you're looking for cannot be found objectively. It can only be subjectively authorized.

Answers wont ever satisfy you. All the trappings of success wont ever stop the nagging plea of the heart. These days i just find answers in what feels balanced and resonant. I know the ache of futility too well to go back. So in a way, im not thorough. I leave problems "unsolved", understanding that the answer isnt what i want. The experiential balance point is what i want. I pick the answer that offers the highest degree of experiential balance, bc ive come to see subjective balance as the only thing of any real value. True incentive is very direct and simple when its not being filtered through a distorted sense of benefit. Im less concerned with being objectively accurate, bc i understand that a decisively balanced subjectivity emerges exponentially faster into desirous zones than the alternate methods of self doubt. You dont need analysis when you can trust yourself to know, and you dont need to resist trusting yourself once you stop caring if youre initially "right". You're right when your inner kingdom is balanced, instead a fucking nightmare. Miraculously, solutions emerge quickly (though non-linearly) from this approach. you stop rabbit holing and reassess your perspective only when you detect an experiential imbalance from holding onto an insistient line of sight. Vertical acceleration is maximally productive, maximally logical, and maximally incentivized by the emotional gradient, which is all you ever actually experience. Since our experience is the only thing we ever experience, we may as well start honoring it. Or be my guest, and run the futile quest for something else. You'll know when you've had enough, and it will be worth the struggle. Just remember on your journey that we're all knights, and a knight is a king in training.

bless up

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

Running backwards is one of the best exercises you can do to expose assumptive bias. If you're suffering from run-bad distortions, it will help your game. Go outside and find an unpopulated area where there's a straight 50 foot strech. Make sure your mind has time to process that there's no obstacles along that stretch that you could potentially crash into. Now turn around and back-pedal it at top speed.

The first thing you'll probably notice is the assumption that you're about to crash into something. You'll probably start pussy-footing it halfway through to oblige that assumption. This is the same thing that happens when you're missing +EV barrels. You know it's a good bluff, but you're flinching at the assumption that there's a wall you're about to run into.

By training yourself to override the assumption that there is an actual wall, you're aligning yourself with a fundamentally more balanced perspective of existence:

reality cannot impose on your subjectively generated experience without your permission.

The credibility you give to the existence of a wall miraculously appearing as an obstacle where you confirmed 5 seconds ago that there was none is nothing short of compulsive paranoia. That being said, if you were to actually run into something, you still have complete subjective authority over how you experience that. It doesn't have to be experienced as victimization -- that is an optionally generated experience.

Commit to the back-pedal at top speed and you'll increase your ability to detect distorted assumption and override it. Pulling triggers in high pressure situations will become more effortless, simply because you balanced distortion. You'll go back to thinking logically.

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

If you are a pro who has attained a substantial long-term winrate, your ability to remain accurate through downswings will become the most +EV investment of your time. Reason coming:

Inaccuracy during a downswing is the only distortion that will continue to occur in your subjectivity no matter what level of technical ability you achieve

A 4bb/100 winner will lose 39% of the time over 5,000 hands. If you are a player that is vulnerable to distortional imbalances induced from downswings, you're entering dangerous territory after 5,000 hands at an alarming frequency. Say your winrate drops to 3bb over the next 5,000 hand sample. You'll proceed to lose 42% of the time. And your upswings will be less gratifying. Over the next 5,000 hands you play at 2bb/100, losing 45% of the time, and likely still stuck over the 15,000 hand sample even after adding back your average expected win from the last 5k hands.

Do not underestimate this rabbit hole. You do not want to fuck with this type of model by writing it of as a "that's not me" thought experiment. When downswings occur to a player who is not balanced enough to stay centered in his convictions of his own technical ability, he will be flooded with cognitive bias, along with the distortional effects of disempowerment. These two combined are a recipe for disasterous futility. It is disastrous because it is not your preference. It is futile because from the frequency domain generated by this degree of bias/distortion, the subject loses clarity over the avenues of perceptive (true) benefit that exist beyond his insistent allegience to (false) benefit perceived from his distorted bias.

A great player has a sensitivity to bias that allows him to wisely disengage before spinning his own web of distortion. Before he ties his own knot. If someone bet me that the average 4bb/100 pro on a 15 buyin downswing would be playing from a winrate that was now < 2bb/100, i would snapcall the under. Some of them would probably be losing. Those ones are literally depending on variance at that point to boost them back into a frequency domain that gives them enough confidence to start playing at their full capacity again. This is how marginal regs get pushed out of the game. It happens all the time. That dude that used to post who you never hear from anymore. He lost his marbles.

kingLeon 9 years ago

Hey Nick ;). I remembered this post while listening to audiobook version of "Thinking Fast and Slow" and you're conclusion about AVERAGE player winrate being lower in a downswing seems far fetched. Basically in "Thinking Fast and Slow" is mentioned that there was extensive reasearch for basketabll which proved no corelation beetwen being on the hot or cold streak and players performance at the moment. It is also mentioned that the same is true for other sports. Anyway what makes You think that poker is special in this regard?

Nick Howard 9 years ago

kingLeon

A good deal of Kahneman's research will be exposed as fundamentally bias in years to come. In short, he was not operating from balanced perspectives with regard to certain metaphysical understandings, and this caused him to come to bias conclusions about the nature of the objective reality he observed. What's more relevant though, is that you don't look further than your own experience to confirm that beyond the shadow of a doubt, you're playing worse when you're tilted, and you're most tilted when your losing.

Zenful 9 years ago

kingLeon

The man won the noble prize in economics. Most of his arguments comes from refuting dogmatic, ancient, neoclassical axioms. As Nick says a lot of his work is biased, and one need only to investigate where his research is funded. Anyways more about the ludicracy of economics...

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/nobel-prize-economics-not-science-hubris-disaster

OneGapper 9 years ago

Basketball pros' shooting results pass all tests of randomness, i.e., there are not statistically significant hot or cold streaks.

Poker pros play more poorly when their recent results, for some value of "recent", have been negative.

The first implies that BB pros skills are not affected by recent results, while poker pros' skills are. Or, BB pros don't tilt while poker pros do.

Can't the two domains differ sufficiently for one not to imply a viewpoint of the other?

Disharmonist 8 years, 11 months ago

OneGapper

I think that is because the athelete has a social and emotional safety net in form of the team he performs for and his failures dont effect his financial status immediatly the poker player´s results directly loses money.

A poker player is more vulnerable to the emotional effect that losing in poker has. He rarely is comforted by anyone if he loses, he is mainly a lone wolf fighting anonymosly against the rest of the world. He only shares and expresses his negative feelings to the few peers he or she has , but outside the heat of the game.

The poker player´s results are more influenced by variance, which he doesnt have any control over and he might feel explicitly or implicitly treated unfairly by lady luck, so there is no valve to his steam, not to say it is easier to let up steam when being physically active.

Nick Howard 9 years, 3 months ago

I listened to a Tim Ferris podcast once where he was talking about the most intelligent way to stay on the cutting edge of competitive fields:

"Look for the 'rules' that people are following that they are not required to follow."

There was a guy on jeopardy once who was a 15 time winner or something. They ended up banning him under accusations of angle shooting. Basically he would pepper the board back and forth, while most contestants were only familiar with going down the row of a category once it was open, until it was closed. He believed that if he scrambled his opponents, he would have the edge. He was right. When he encountered daily doubles he would bet ridiculously low $ amounts and write "i dont know" as his answer. He was eliminating variance, and forcing them to play his game.

If you want to reach a higher level of balance with solver work, you have to get more exploitative in your applications. The highest level of balance is not a stagnant Game Theory Optimal, it's a dynamic application of maximal exploits. GTO is simply the effect of opposing maximally exploitative strategies that have been iterated to equilibrium. The community has forgotten this, or just doesnt care.

Getting more exploitative requires you to validate weird lines, even if Solver says they're lower EV. "Solver Says" is for losers. You should be hunting for ways to simplify your strategy while complicating villain's game tree. If you commit to this through node-locker, you'll discover spots where you sacrifice < 2% of the pot on the flop or turn in order to funnel your opponent into unfamiliar lines while massively simplifying your strategy. It's similar to playing an opening gambit in chess. A lot of the edge comes from taking the villain out of his comfort zone. You sacrifice material early to force positional imbalances that can be capitalized on later. Playful exploits require a higher balance of wisdom. Find new and exciting lines. Be different, be you.

I hate ready-made suits, button-down collars, and sports shirts.
-Bobby Fischer

Jen Shahade 9 years, 2 months ago

I agree there’s a lot to be learned from the example of chess, and how we use and misuse computer engines.

At the top level engines are mostly used for analyzing openings for future opponents (and at the elite level, by trainers of the players.)

Loyally gaping at the computer output (which uses the pawn as a base of 1) can actually make people play/think/prepare worse. For instance, the computer says I’ll be up 1.5 if I play this bishop sacrifice. So I start analyzing the main line suggested by computer without looking at a far more obvious human response, that is technically worse, but far more likely to be played. Chess engines aren't able to predict yet what humans would look at first so sometimes the most obvious move doesn't even show up in the shortlist of suggestions. When I just click through the computer top choices ply by ply, I’ve replaced the horizontal thinking which is so crucial to chess mastery (looking at all the possibilities a couple moves ahead) with unearned vertical thinking.

It’s impossible to actually think this way at the board (when obviously you’re not allowed to use computer engines). So instead of accentuating my human thinking to be more organized/thorough I risk damaging the thing that made me good at chess in the first place. It can take a while to strike the right balance and use the tools well.

Started working with Simple Postflop (which I take it is similar to PIO Solver) and I noticed something similar. My first hours of working with it were probably pretty useless till I started fooling around with the node locker. So I now kinda see not using (or considering using) the node locker as similar to the chess engine leak in that it's skipping steps.

Nick Howard 9 years, 2 months ago

This is my last 3 months of play. The sample is +14bb/100 split evenly between 1knl and 2knl. I've been increasingly experimental and exploitative in my approach since September of last year. I mentioned before that i think players who have been stagnating for >50k hand samples should implement a self correction process at a pace that would make most of them very uncomfortable.

Im interested in coaching students who are committed to fast pace change. If you come dedicated to that, our work will be fruitful.

-I will tear your database apart and expose all your major leaks, from stats to hand histories.
-I will show you how to minimize the distortion in certain thought processes that are causing you to self-sabotage in game.
-I will practicalize your strategy by showing you how to remove strategic options from your game that aren't worth the headache they cause you.
-I will introduce you to what are, in my opinion, some of the most advanced exploitative applications of PIOsolver, after which you can feel comfortable and confident in navigating your own future studies. You will become an independent learner.
-I will do all of this within 5 hours.

The 5-pack option is currently the only 1on1 format of coaching that I'm offering. It represents what I believe to be the minimum investment of time necessary for us to thoroughly handle bizness. Rates are in my profile, PM me to begin. Thanks for continuing to read my blog.

Nick Howard 9 years, 2 months ago

Regression is not always the result of a downswing. In my experience as a player and a coach, it's commonly a side effect of an increase in a player's technical capacity. Regression in winrate occurs when a player is trying to manage higher levels of conceptual balance without integrating the necessary intuitive counterparts that are native to that new paradigm. Integration of greater theoretical understanding demands higher intuitive balance in the form of certain traits:

Versatility/Calibration

Because your life in-game is not a walking theory model. Things are not at perfect equilibrium, not even close. To apply higher levels of technical understanding in a way that keeps you firing on all cylinders, you have to honor and trust your ability to accurately implement exploits on the fly. Without this balance a newly graduated theory boy will become just another frustrated drone on auto-pilot. In fact he'll probably seal himself further into a pit of futility than the standard drone, because theory boy is assumptively patting himself on the back for every well balanced overbet spot he finds. Meanwhile he's greatly exaggerating his ability to execute balanced ranges in real-time. This is the type of insistence that can turn you into a world class dumbass. Dont try to approach perfect balance through perfect application. I know it seems smart, but its actually a very imbalanced paradigm to come from when operating in environments that deal with this degree of complexity.

Self Trust

Overwhelment is the biggest reason for regression. If a player can trust that he is capable of applying high level concepts in-game, it will make his process of integration faster and less painful -- simply by taking him out of redundant negative self-talk. Self trust will raise his vibrational frequency and allow him to perceive angles of benefit that weren't available from the more contracted emotional states of doubt and overwhelment.

These days I don't regress. I integrate. I become aware very quickly in-game of when im in need of integrational balance, because I've trained myself to detect distortional imbalance in my subjectivity through monitoring my emotional gradient. I play long enough to detect where the confusion stems from, then i sit out and handle it. I play very little during these periods, and since i put a single-pointed focus on integration, it usually doesnt take very long for me to return to inner balance -- plus an upgrade. Regression is for players who ignore the signs that point toward necessary integration. They insistently plow through hands with poor winrate during this phase, stunting their growth and risking a downward spiral. Dammit men If you take one thing from this:

No outward progress is made during the integration period. So stop demanding it.

Vertical Acceleration is uncomfortable for the linear thinking mind. The fastest route to expansion is rarely a straight line, but from multidimensional lines of perception, crooked lines bend straight. Integrate, calibrate, trust. You can afford it.

At your service.

Nick Howard 9 years, 2 months ago

Emotional Dissonance: An imbalance or disharmony present in the emotional guidance system.

By 2025 i predict there will be a device that can read the levels and consistencies of a person's emotional dissonance and plot it over large sample gradations. It will also be able to map the subject for contextual associations at the onset of dissonant triggers as he interfaces with reality. High scores will be achieved not by avoiding dissonance, but by transforming it. In this way facing negative emotion becomes the only way to separate oneself from the competition. When the person improves on a contextual association to yield emotional resonance where he previously dissonated, he earns points. Expansion is the name of the game.

In all seriousness i would expect to see this type of model become the standardized test of intelligence for our youth. Fuck the SATs. No one's benefiting from their ability to improve on paragraph construction. The most impactful minds of any generation are visionaries. The most balanced leaders are emotionally equipped. My expectations for the future breed couldn't be higher.

AF3 9 years ago

"By 2025 i predict there will be a device that can read the levels and consistencies of a person's emotional dissonance and plot it over large sample gradations. It will also be able to map the subject for contextual associations at the onset of dissonant triggers as he interfaces with reality. High scores will be achieved not by avoiding dissonance, but by transforming it. "

The first part is available now in a device and you can argue that it does the second -- costs around $200 - $300.

Dddogkillah 9 years, 2 months ago

Wow Nick so many golden nuggets of information in here! :D

ive met very few players that come from as over-analytical a makeup as i did. most of them probably burn out before i get a chance to meet them.

What would you say is the best ways to not get burnt out in this area?
Thanks for the great read!!!
:D

Nick Howard 9 years, 2 months ago

@ Dddog -

If i had to pick one thing i did (and still do) to overcome my tendency to over-analyze, it's making the choice to be less insistent. More specifically, to be less insistent on how I "think" i need to go about improving. I've mentioned that my definition of an intelligent person is one who can discern the most beneficial avenue to place his attention at any given time. In my experience, the most beneficial direction is always the one that feels the least stubborn. Basically because it's the fastest route to a more inclusive paradigm, from which you'll always have more balanced vision.

Nick Howard 9 years, 2 months ago

I've done about 30 hours of pretty advanced PIO solver work this month, over a pretty wide spectrum. Needless to say I've found myself in the midst of another integration period. I've mentioned how important of a skill it is for a player to become sensitive to the signs that an integration period is upon him. Ignoring the integration period is a reckless, insistent approach that usually leads to regressions and downswings that can cause long-term damage to a player's inner balance. Honoring the integration period is possibly the single most important mental game skill a pro can develop. In an effort to help you raise awareness around the signs of an integration period, here were my indicators this time around that i needed a few days off from playing:

1) I implemented a LOT of new exploitative strategies from the 30 hours of PIO work this month. My style is noticeably different from last month

2) I started feeling like I'd rather be medding* than playing (*see Tommy Angelos video). Usually my sessions are a playful, active, exciting form of meditation. It's an art to me. I am the artist of my own style and my own portrait every time i play. But when i hit an integration period, i tend to feel overwhelmed with the new and uncalibrated technical aspects of my game. It makes me enjoy playing less, and makes me crave clarity. Eventually this craving is channeled into session reviews, but initially I find the most resonance in doing something completely non-poker related, like spending time outside, dismantling my contextual thresholds, or just being dumb with my gf. I have a wide array of hobbies. Anything that realigns me with freedom really, bc freedom is what i lose sight of when i start over-analyzing new technical theory stuff.

3). The biggest indicator imo, and this is first time i consciously noticed this before entering an integration period:

My session review revealed trends of both my A+ game and my D game simultaneously

To me this is a tell tale sign of a thresholded consciousness requesting balance. My A+ game showed up in the application of new technical understandings applied with proper calibration. My D game showed up where where I over-analyzed and slipped into uncalibrated, assumptive in-hand thought processes.

An integration phase offers you a blending period. You seal the new technical capacity with the intuitive counterparts that allow it to operate efficiently in practice. A lot of this is just a comfort issue. Comfort comes to those who learn to be become comfortable. So do this:

Drill your hand histories during an integration phase with a partner whose opinion you respect. Announce your play before every action, and when you're taking a pure strategy with a hand, explain why your hand is currently pure and not mixed, based on environmental or specific villain tendencies. Let your partner balance your vision. Watch yourself rise into a higher frequency domain. You're not just more precise, your more decisive. Then turn off. Do whatever you do to feel like a kid. kids are free. They play hard. They don't look back. This is the energy you want to reconnect with.

Drilling and chilling, a complete kit for blasting through plateaus. Welcome to the integration period. it's quite nice here.

Dddogkillah 9 years, 2 months ago

Drilling and chilling, a complete kit for blasting through plateaus. Welcome to the integration period. it's quite nice here.

This is going in the arsenal! :D

Nick Howard 9 years, 2 months ago

Dudes -
For everyone who has contacted me already since my latest video, and for everyone who I directed thru PM to this post, thank you for your support, and thank you for caring about your game enough to ask for coaching.

I'm writing to explain why my 5-pack lesson option is a snapcall. I apologize for not responding to all of your PM's on a more personal level, but you're all pretty much asking the same (good) questions about what the 5pack entails. I will field any further questions through PM or Skype. So here's a thorough explanation of what you can expect:

The first 2 hours of the pack is done in one session. It is a full stats HH review. I will use the Teamviewer remote feature to rip through your last 10,000 hands, filtering won/lost pot >10bb. I will mark all relevant hands and briefly outline leaks i see you trending toward. In hour 2 we'll go deeper into all marked hands. I'll start to understand how you think as a player, and I get an idea of what you'll need from both the mental-game side and technical side in order to further your balance in the areas that are going to accelerate your win-rate the fastest. The 5-pack is all about win-rate prioritization.

From there I tailor the next 3 lessons to your specific leaks. I've worked with enough of you that I now have a very cool collection of pre-planned PIOsolver lessons where the models are specifically designed to expose leaks in specific areas. If one of my pre-planned lessons fits a leak you have, we will use it. If you have a more unique leak that i haven't encountered, i will pre-plan a new PIO lesson specifically for you. The time i spend doing that is included in your price of purchase. All of my PIO lessons begin by introducing a general theory understanding of how things work at equilibrium in the particular model/concept we're exploring, and then i will introduce deviations to the model using the node-locker feature, in order to make it clear why a certain deviation is a leak, and how it's exploited by solver. For instance, if you c-bet too much OOP, i will bring you into a PIO lesson demonstrating (through the use of node-locker) why you're exploitable, and how you should go about exploiting guys who have that leak.

The 5-pack usually turns into about 6 hours of lessons, since generally i run over by about 10-15 minutes in each session. Lessons will run as long as they need to for you understand the concept of the lesson, so don't worry about time. I also ask that you download a recorder like Snagit or Camtasia, so that you can integrate lessons by re-watching them.

After you complete the 5-pack, you'll understand how to use PIO to create and explore optimal models, and you'll understand how to use node-locker to explore deviations from optimal while filtering for exploitative counters. You will have the ability function as an independent learner, and you can begin exploring the program at whatever depth you choose. Basically you won't need me anymore -- at least not for PIO. Students who stay with me after the 5pack are generally interested in hand history review sessions where we continue to balance their in-game assumptions (see my new video "Challenging Assumptions"). I outline how to set up more advanced PIO models that they can use to help them build up more winrate in their specific playing environment, based on the exploitable tendencies that we saw trending in their player pool from their hand histories.

All of my students begin to deviate more exploitatively after the 5-pack, b/c they understand theory and balance at a high enough level to see where it's not maximally benefiting them in practice. This is what you actually want. The community has stagnated over the last year by not understanding how to implement solvers in a way that maximizes growth. Growth = winrate. winrate = exploiting imbalances. Exploitating imbalances is a product of understanding equilibria. We are not bypassing theory here. We are working FROM theory, to apply deviations to theory in ways that are maximally relevant for beating specific player pools. Guys: if we are not using solvers exploitatively, we are being over-insistent of their true capacity and value to us as players.

Ok! I think that covers pretty much everything. The 5-pack is $2000. You can PM me for details, or if i have directed you here via PM in response to your coaching inquiry, you will already have my Skype.

Again thanks to all you guys, the support i get through your PMs has been really authentic. You're all eager to expand and it's awesome to see that hunger. When you demand more of yourself by demanding greater understanding, you support what i stand for.

AF3 9 years, 2 months ago

-- I have both worked and lived with Nick, and I can wholeheartedly vouch for his commitment to the game and his intentions in helping those around him improve. In fact, I would say that he was unreasonably generous in our time working together, and I have no doubt that his coaching package is top-notch and he is truly committed to helping students improve.

Honestly, he'll probably be obsessed with helping you get better to the point where his dedication to improving your game may actually outpace your own.

Zaza 9 years, 2 months ago

really enjoyed reading up on this Nick. thanks for sharing and finally I couldnt agree more with you about pio solver and how it should be used. great work

arizonabay 9 years, 2 months ago

I also wanted to say that I have worked a lot with Nick and I think without doubt, no matter where you are in your poker career that Nick can help you take your game to a higher level and probably faster than you have thought possible.

Nick Howard 9 years, 2 months ago

This weekend I was in Paris for my gf's bday. We ate at a restaurant that completely changed my perspective on food. It's a set menu with 9 courses. The menu changes daily and is inspired but whatever is currently seasonal. There were some seriously next-level dishes at this place. Afterward I was thinking about what made it so great. The approach was very unorthodox, in the sense that the chef was balancing really weird ingredients, but it worked. There was also a wine pairing for each dish that was equally bizarre but somehow worked. When i say it worked i mean it struck an undeniable chord of balance that would be hard to fuck with. I came away with this conclusion, and i think it relates a lot to what I've been advocating as the best approach to poker/solver work:

In any art, understanding the essence of dynamic equilibrium is the highest form of mastery.

Key word is dynamic. I don't think it's intelligent to idolize a perfect equilibrium, b/c it's so fleeting in practice. I think we tend to forget that PIO outputs are the result of 2 opposing forces in motion, pausing for just an instant to pose for the camera, so it can capture that timeless moment when a journey towards balance finds its completion. Just before it gets spit out again into mayhem. It's like the stillness between heartbeats, or breaths, or even universes if you're into that sort of thing. Every pulsation is a new abstraction that pays tribute to the origin of infinite balance from which it arose.

So what does it mean, for us as players, and for the chef who is redefining culinary tradition. What's really going on, and how is he making seemingly imbalanced strategies work? I'll try again:

When an artist validates the existence of surface level imbalances, he can achieve more inclusive levels of balance that are more relevant to his purest expression and expansion.

The chef is mixing ingredients that no one ever thought of using together, and proving that he can achieve higher balance through them. For lack of a better metaphor, he's pulling an exploit on the entire culinary player pool, simply by challenging the assumption that there is only 1 rigid GTO model for achieving high level balance. Pollock did the same thing when he introduced drip painting. Poker visionaries are doing the same thing in their attempts to utilize solvers.

On the surface it's nothing revolutionary. We all know we should be exploiting when we can. But to actually become fluent in counter-balances is a real art, and in my opinion it's what's necessary for world class play. If I point out an imbalance in a player's flop strategy, how many guys could accurately submit the inexploitable counterstrategy to that initial imbalance? How many could conceptualize that counter-strategy in a way that helps them apply it spots where range-vs-range dynamics are similar? How many could gauge how that imbalance can be expected to filter down into villain's future decision points, leaving him even more susceptible to exploits?

How many have the motivation to challenge their opponents repeatedly to that type of exploitative relationship?

We give our environments way too much credit. Until your opponents are willing to learn how to play more well balanced strategies, you should be challenging them with high level exploits, anticipating their counters, and re-balancing higher exploits. Until they give up. Literally. Until they quit your tables, or spend enough time in the lab learning how to get more balanced so they can stop having to play an explo-war vs an explo-warrior like yourself. If you want to close the gap on the inapproachability of the GTO snapshot, you have to validate your ability to find transcendent balance in the form of dynamic exploits. Leave their taste buds shocked and confused. Leave them with an invitation to look deeper into their own imbalances, if they care enough to want to understand them. Leave them with the idea that there might be something more relevant to them than GTO.

Dddogkillah 9 years, 2 months ago

Nick the only way to describe your post's, like the chef and the dishes at the restaurant:

There were some seriously next-level dishes at this place.
it struck an undeniable chord of balance that would be hard to fuck with.


wp!

AF3 9 years, 2 months ago

I heard an economist describing equilibrium in a way that is very related to what you are saying about "dynamic" forces:

"There are two ways for it to look like nothing is happening...one is for there to be no forces at play...the other way for it to look like nothing to happen is for two opposing forces to be pushing against each other in such a way that they are cancelling out."

The moral being that it's not like you're just "in the clear" when you're trying to play unexploitably, even though they are "stable" in the mathematical sense that the system will always converge to one of these such points under the evolution of strategy pairs in which each player is is trying to max their EV, etc..

Nick Howard 9 years, 2 months ago

Dudes - I'm closing coaching for the time being. 12 of you bought the 5-pack and I have my hands full tailoring those lesson plans. In an effort to stay on the forefront of offering the most beneficial PIOsolver training for guys trying to move up the ranks, I'll most likely be putting out some new products by April. With products I can help more of you at more affordable prices, and without the obstacle of schedulings and fillups. The next product will likely be divided into an Essential and Elite format, in honor of RIO hierarchy. Essential will be dense with shortcuts that will help you isolate nodes, understand the driving forces of various equilibria, and filter for hard exploits using node-locker. Elite will be the bad-ass older brother of the pack. Stay tuned for updates on prices and release dates of the next wave. Hope you're all crushing. Thanks for continuing to support.

Dddogkillah 9 years, 2 months ago

Im at the edge of my seat waiting!!!

The next product will likely be divided into an Essential and Elite format. Essential will be dense with shortcuts that will help you isolate nodes, understand the driving forces of various equilibria, and filter for hard exploits using node-locker. Elite will be the bad-ass older brother of the pack. Stay tuned for updates on prices and release dates. Hope you're all crushing. Thanks for continuing to support.

Nick Howard 9 years, 1 month ago

This is an excerpt from a post that I made recently in the MSNL forum:

If you asked me what percentage of the community moved up more than 1
limit over the last 12 months and stuck the landing, I'd snapcall the
under on 10%. My guess would be less than 3%. Thats a problem. The
first impulse is to point the fingers at the coaches. But I genuinely
believe that the coaches on the whole are polarized toward authentic
service. The problem is that there is not enough information available
on how to become an independent learner. There's not enough equality
in the student teacher relationship, and both parties are equally at
fault for that. Poker players should understand incentive better than
any other professional. As a community, we're ignoring the most major
incentive we have right now: we're being massively incentivized to
change the way we learn.

The GTO bug swept the community from 2013-2014. We suffered from a naivety that caused us to massively overestimate the benefits of attempting to implement GTO strategies. In 2015, the community spun out into a distorted trajectory when the solver bubble burst -- basically we were given fuller vision over the complexity of GTO, and we remained insistent on attempting to implement it.

It's my personal diagnosis that the community should consider itself to be in a stage of recovery until we massively simplify our approach toward integrating well balanced strategies. Imo the most efficient way to begin this recovery is by exposing multiple strategic betting options as a trap. To introduce a level of complexity into our strategy that we are far from being able to implement with accuracy is unintelligent. The belief that we are capable of balancing 2 or more bet sizes is the community's greatest arrogance. The compounding error of losing control of the range on subsequent streets is not being properly acknowledged. My recommendation is as follows:

coaches and students should become dedicated to discrediting information that advocates multiple strategic betting options as intelligent training content or discussion for students beating limits < 2K nl.

The fact that less than 1% of the elite community is beating 2knl+ should make it irrelevant for strategies of this complexity to be emerging on these forums at any sort of regular frequency. Yet they're being advocated by coaches and regurgitated by students basically across the board. We need to wake up to the fact that we're not ready yet, and our insistence is killing our expansion. We need to find greater accuracy in the relevance of simplification.

tonic1223 9 years, 1 month ago

Hey Nick,

Really enjoy your blog man, lots of deep things that make my brain churn. Just wanted to add my 2 cents on top of this, because I agree with you very much.
I feel like the GTO phenomenon has by far taken over most peoples strategies or attempts in learning the game. Hand reading seems to be a lost art, and in fact I know many new players that have no idea how to hand read, but can spout off ranges and what not.
So many players under value the "language of poker" and the art of hand reading these days. If there's one thing I'd say is vastly important in learning this game, in any form you play, is knowing how to hand read BEFORE learning what your ranges look like in a given scenario(that most likely will not occur again for 100k hands if ever). But I digress, keep up the great posts Nick, we all enjoy them.

Nick Howard 9 years, 1 month ago

Hey guys, i'm opening up a free dropbox folder that i'll be adding video content to daily. The uploads are shorter in length, basically whatever I'm inspired to put out that day. My goal is to offer an outlet for members to get a healthy shot of daily poker inspiration, with a general emphasis on how to become a more independent thinker/learner in the post-solver era. A lot of tips for how to leverage your PIO exploration in more efficient ways .. some HH reviews from willing member volunteers .. and whatever else I come up with along the way.

To join just PM me your email, and I'll add you to the dropbox. I'm looking forward to coming back to the community!

Anom1c 9 years, 1 month ago

Yo, if you don't have anything to say on some day it would be cool to hear about how you manage stress and in what ways poker makes you feel fullfilled/proud/happy. Kind of struggling with this at times.

Looking forward to the pio stuff because it's often hard to see the forest from the trees!

Nick Howard 9 years, 1 month ago

@Anomic
I've accelerated and expanded a lot in the past year. If I had to give the most succinct explanation of what I did (yea right, the magic pill). but ok here goes:

I made a (real) decision to take responsibility for literally every part of my life.

I made that decision by clarifying over time that it was being incentivized by my direct experience. That was the same clarification that eventually filtered down into my adventures in independent learning with PIO. It basically became painfully clear that responding to stress by trying to manage it was entirely futile, b/c I'd literally tried everything. And maybe I just had dramatically high expectations, but a lot of my 20s just felt like I could be growing way faster than I was. Ultimately it was my fault, because I wasn't making effective use of catalyst. I wasn't responding to life in a way that responded to incentive (shitty feelings) in an intelligent way. My advice to guys would be not to over-complicate this guidance system:

If a belief or perspective doesn't feel balanced, true, supported,
inspired, and generous, CHANGE IT.

Like, immediately. I argued with myself for way too long before I finally got on the train. Once you clarify that the nature of experience is completely 100% subjective, you don't need to look anywhere but inside of yourself for incentives to validate change. Bc anywhere you would be looking would ultimately just be a permission slip to correct a subjectively generated incentive. It's just not an intelligent approach to do it that way. When you clarify stuff like this, and you get some good emotional feedback, you glimpse real freedom. Then stress starts to fall away naturally because you start to invite challenge. From "100% subjective" understanding, challenges are the thresholds to greater freedom, and the thresholds rise and fall in your consciousness. I mentioned that I started making effective use of catalyst. Basically it means I respond to emotional incentive more quickly. I don't judge myself as much for fucking up or being flawed, b/c it's not incentivized by my emotions. It's the freedom from my own judgement that i really value, b/c that's the only thing that really fucks with my experience. Amassing inward freedom gets shit done. I've moved toward happiness more in the last 6 months than i had in the last 6 years. Looking back on my 20's it was just one big invitation to stop being such an insistent bastard. In a way the realest value i see when i look back on those years is that they helped me to come to full clarity on the nature of futility. That's where i get most of my conviction from. I can spot futility from a mile away, and I trained myself to swap out perspectives really quickly toward highest benefit. Basically I got smoked for playing explo vs my emotions. So i started playing balanced. Turns out it's actually way easier than GTO too!

Poker is my exploitative outlet. I had a bunch of really quick success at 10/20 in the last few months after running a lot of database review on my environments and flooding in with hard exploits. My crew started playing more like me and winning a lot, which further confirmed that my sample wasn't variance. In January i had a 50k month without even playing much. At that time i felt a pretty big incentive to clarify my direction. I was confident that I could be playing in the toughest games in the world within a year if I wanted to. My perspectives had become too balanced and my growth pattern was too accelerated for it to not be an inevitability. It took a lot of self inquiry but I actually came to the conclusion that going down that road, at least at this time would be more imbalanced than moving toward service as a coach. I couldn't justify playing really high stakes as a genuinely inspired path, and i had to be honest enough to admit that i couldn't control my inspiration. If I went down that road right now, it would be to prove something, and I know that energy as futile. The more balanced path for me right now is what's staring me in the face. I'm inspired to help people find greater happiness and benefit through simplification. I have this skill right now in poker. I currently use PIOsolver more efficiently than anyone I've seen, and I'm getting better every day. I have training models that get results, fast. I'm inspired to serve guys that are seeking the same direction that I wasn't able to find earlier on. They pay me well for my work, and because of that I can give away free shit and feel good about it, and help more people. I'm on board with a bigger picture of service, because it's incentivized for me, and I'm done fighting against that just to protect a version of myself that I never even valued. Poker is a platform for me. I'm out by the time I'm 30 as far as i see it. On to bigger projects where I can be of service with the models that I train with now. Independent learning and empowered living. Exposing bias. Logic. Global enlightenment. When i hold that bigger picture, stress is a memory.

Hope this helps you clarify your own journey -

Dddogkillah 9 years, 1 month ago

Wow amazing post Nick, I want to be part of squad !!!
:D
Awesome work!!, when can we expect more pio content???
edit ask and you shall receive, great stuff... exactly what I was looking for!!

Anom1c 9 years, 1 month ago

Had to read most of it more than once to really get it and "feel it" but damn, some parts are better than therapy to me.

I guess my biggest motivation for playing poker is independence and freedom from much of society's demands/standards/nonsense and a chance to live an authentic life (even if it's only for a while) and to be able to have faith in myself without needing confirmation by others. Thanks for helping me realize that.

Nick Howard 9 years, 1 month ago

Recently I was asked:

You said that PIO is one of the only tools you should be using. What
are your thoughts on this answer Doug Polk gave on his hand analysis
thread to a question about PIO: "I think PioSolver is basically
terrible. I don't know what the high stakes six max players are using,
and I'm not claiming to be one of the top players in those games. But
what I can say is that the players in HU that use this type of
software to play, end up playing horrific post flop."

To understand my response, you have to start by relaxing the assumption that concepts like right and wrong are still useful after you pass a certain threshold of balance. There are perspectives that you could classify as more "accurate" because they come from more inclusive lines of sight. And there are perspectives that are more short-sighted, but equally valid in the sense that they serve to reinforce a certain paradigm. There is "accurate/inclusive/balanced", and there is "distorted/narrow/self-confirming". Labels like right and wrong are only useful within paradigms that are still imbalanced/insecure enough to need to invalidate other paradigms out of the need to be "right", which from more inclusive paradigms is worth nothing. In a balanced consciousness, all paradigms are seen as equally valid, because all paradigms are seen to be serving a desired purpose to those who choose them.

When Doug Polk said that PIO-happy players actually end up playing way worse, I'm assuming he meant that the guys who try to play solver-esque strategies just butcher the implementation of it. This is consistent with both my own experience, my experience with students, and my experience with opponents who poorly implement balance when it's very clear they're trying to.

Regardless, he's being narrow-minded in his general conclusion that solvers cannot be used as a tool to dramatically improve a player's understanding of the game. I'll introduce a new term: "loose" equilibria. It's basically an oxymoron, which sucks for it's credibility. But to me, "loose" is anything that's simplified after the point of a well supported assumption. Lets assume we could know more or less what an opponent's range looks like at a certain node. Lets also simplify our strategic options. We could then lock our range vs his range and explore that loose equilibrium. The point:

When a player begins to use mass database filters from his environment to create an alias opponent, and then applies those alias trends to his explorations in PIO, he's entering a very accelerated learning pattern.

The mark of an intelligent learner:

1) An intelligent learner has released the insistent assumption that a human can only achieve greater levels of accuracy through higher levels of complexity. This is counterintuitive, which is why it's been overlooked. With a landscape as complex as NLHE, human players should expect to achieve greater accuracy through simplification, mainly in the form of reducing their strategic options. A dog who obeys 3 commands every time is smarter than a dog who knows 10 commands but fucks them up constantly.

2) An intelligent learner directs his attention into areas that are maximally relevant for getting results in his specific environment. What is of highest relevance is not different from what is of highest benefit. When you use node-locker to mimic environmental responses, you can simultaneously learn a lot about the driving forces of loose equilibria, while strengthening your exploitative versatility in ways that are maximally efficient for your winrate. Prioritize lines, run mass database filters to gain vision over the alias, and explore the resulting balances and counterbalances in models that pertain to your environment. Relevance is the heart of intelligent exploration.

It's important to become an independent learner so you can begin to think for yourself. One part of Doug's statement comes from a high level of understanding. Another part comes from a high degree of insistence and shortsightedness. None of it is wrong, b/c his statement is highly relevant to reinforce his paradigm, and it's clearly serving him well. Your goal as a reader is to determine which parts of his statement are not currently relevant for your paradigm. Also keep in mind that Doug runs a training site founded on classifying hands into 1 of 4 groups at any given time. Advocating PIO is not necessarily conducive to his marketing scheme. Just be careful about what conclusions you arrive at from limited perspectives, and never be so arrogant to think that your perspectives aren't limited.

The most balanced person in the room is always the one who is coming to the least conclusions, and for that reason he can make decisions that are in the best interest of everyone involved.

d0zer 9 years ago

pretty good post, i think as a general outline doug is just trying to point out that the wannabe gto-trip that everyone is on will most of the time be executed poorly enough that an experienced exploitative player will still tear it apart. is it possible to assign frequences (and more precisely, ranges) to those frequencies in pio with the node-locker function ?

Zenful 9 years, 1 month ago

You really need a bigger platform, one doesn't need to be a poker player to learn a ton from this blog.

I'm in the process of writing a few research papers at the moment and his posts pertaining to learning efficiently and managing expectations and when you're constantly bombarded with information has put into context how useful his posts are inside and outside of poker.

"It basically became painfully clear that responding to stress by trying to manage it was entirely futile"

This resonates on so many levels - obviously being unable to influence how cards fall exacerbates this problem in poker but I think many of us are guilty of being persistent (perhaps something to do with ego) that if we don't take conscious steps to dealing with stress that we are weak/failing ourselves. Our emotions are taking a turn left sometimes and we're insisting on turning right, what is wrong with embracing our true feelings?

I think there's a more general societal problem that we lack genuine role models and bad practices and attitudes are being reinforced and sustained. It's no coincidence that we as a whole have more mental health issues, loneliness, anxiety despite living in a more 'connected' world than ever before.

The utmost respect my friend.

AF3 9 years ago

1) An intelligent learner has released the insistent assumption that a human can only achieve greater levels of accuracy through higher levels of complexity.

The trap that you're talking about goes like this --

Your brain thinks a system scales by addition, so that if you add one component to a system with ten components, it's the same as adding 1 subject to 3 subjects. Or it's like adding one new tool to a collection of 99 new tools.

It's Not.

The complexity of your system always scales at least by combinatorics, and often exponentially.

For example:

You start off learning one thing about a subject, for example, and you know that everything else that you try to learn will interact with all of the others.

If you study one thing, you have one thing to worry about.

If you study *ten things, and EACH COLLECTION of those things has to be balanced, you have 2^10 = 1,024 new sets of material to be accurate with!"

If only two of the things need to be balanced with each other and you've got 10 of them, you've still got a 45-fold increase in complexity (take 10 choose 2.)

That's the demand that introducing all kinds of tools and contexts puts on your cognition.

Moreover, this has a huge snowball effect because the gap widens as the numbers get larger:

For example, if you take all the subsets in a collection of 2 things , it's 4 (including the empty set), and if you take all the subsets in a collection of 4 things, it's 16. That's a difference of 12.

If you take all the subsets in a collection of 5 things, it's 32, and if you take all the subsets in a collection of 6 things, it's 64.

Etc....

...

To Nick -- Thanks for writing this, because since I've basically retired from poker to start a few businesses, I've fallen victim to this trap, and seeing this actually snapped me back in to reality.

AF3 9 years ago

Oh, and I've made every mmistake talks about in that post, and then some (inside of poker and out of it.)

Nick Howard 9 years ago

Thought of day:

it is unlikely that a human consciousness will iterate itself to
equilibrium within a lifetime. But it is ever possible.

^when you know you've been chilling with PIO a little too hard

Nick Howard 9 years ago

Matt Janda was my first coach ever, I think i was 22. He was the definition of a theory boy. One time before a lesson he gave me a thought experiment that i still remember. I'm pretty sure this was his original idea, and he liked to use it on religious people to expose bias. The kid had theory balls. Anyway It goes like this:

Ask a person to assign a probability to the possibility that they are existing in one of infinite multiverses, as opposed to 1 single universe.

The lowest answer I've ever heard anyone give is 1%.

The problem is that as soon as you assign even a 0.0000000000000000000001% probability to the infinite multiverse theory, it's already INFINITELY more likely that you're inhabiting one of those multiverses, than that you're in the single universe.

Behold the power of infinity!

AF3 9 years ago

Let Thy Robe Floweth Forth Unto Thee Galaxy...

I'm so sure about this, though. For one, you run in to the not-so-subtle problem of dealing with what it actually means to have an infinite number of multiverses, and whether the set of all multiverses actually exists...Russell's Paradox seems like an example of why this is rather important.

A few other points:

1) Probabilities (as you know) are distributed along the [0,1], so the only way for something to be "infinitely more likely" is for the probability of it not being true, or equivalently, for the only other option to be true, to be zero.

Which brings me to...

2)) It's odd that there is no option to be N of them where N isn't 1, but I guess that's kind of his set-up.

3) With regards to the last paragraph, you're saying that if I think I'm living in one of more than one possible universes, then there is zero chance that I'm living in the only one, so basically if I pick this option then I just can't be flat-out wrong? Maybe you just mis-worded what you were trying to say, and you were trying to say that there is a contradiction in my beliefs.

Also...

A) Technically speaking, you never have an "infinite number" of anything, as that's kind of an oxymoron -- the basic definition of infinity revolves around the idea that you have no upper bound on the number of objects in the collection of things that you are either trying to count or measure.

What you would have, however, is that the collection of multiverses (in this case) has infinite cardinality, which is different, but colloquially you refer to that collection as "being infinite" or whatever. It seems Janda may not know enough to know the difference, though.

In addition, when you say that is something is infinite, you usually want to specify how infinite it actually is, meaning that you can have two collections which are both technically infinite, but one will actually still be larger than the other and be "more infinite" in some sense (countably infinite vs. uncountably infinite). In this case it's relevant, because when you talk about probabilities you are talking about infinite trials of an experiment, and I'd like to know how he is going to measure that -- to which you may say that objection is irrelevant since he is only trying to expose a bias. Okay, fair enough.

So he's basically saying:

"I can do a perfect experiment where I can measure the number of universes we are living in. If I run this experiment and measure the results each time, then as the number of trials gets larger and larger, my results will get closer and closer to some value."

Note -- If there are an infinite number of multiverses, then he gets "closer and closer to infinity" by having no number for which there are a corresponding number of universes (he just keeps counting higher every time he does the experiment and the whole thing blows up).

So, his question is:

"How often will my results converge to 1? (Or, how often can I derive a contradiction from assuming that there is more than one universe.)

(Or, how often will my results not converge to 1, due to the way that I have set up the problem this means there are then infinite?)"

I guess you're saying if, for example, 90% of the time that we run our series of experiments, we will end up counting forever, and so that somehow supersedes everything else?

Seems like you have a lot of work to do to actually show that and you've got to specify a lot of things (but maybe I'm missing something very simple).

Cool idea, though.

Disharmonist 8 years, 11 months ago

The answer is deteministc, not probabilistc. There either are mulitverses, than the chance of that occurance is 1. Or there is no such thing and our universe is indeed one of a kind , then the chance is 0. Subjective assessemnts dont matter at all.

Nick Howard 9 years ago

Understanding how to negotiate from integrity is one of the most important skills you can develop, business and personal. The mainstream approach is to play the high-ball/low-ball game, in the hopes that the other party miscalculates their incentives and agrees to an imbalance in your favor. I'm sure there are people who are very good at this game and win often. It's unintelligent to win at this game. Paradigm buster coming:

Once you achieve a high enough level of balance, you lose all
incentive to manipulate another party in negotiation, because
it would disturb your balance to do so. At high levels
of integrity, you win when interests are balanced. You operate from an
understanding (not a belief) that you do not need to infringe upon
another to satisfy your desires.

When there's an offer pending, I balance my end of the incentives to the best of my ability. I know I'm balanced when I end up with numbers that make me indifferent between the current agreement and my next best option. This guarantees that I don't disturb my balance, b/c I'm not infringing on an equilibrium in my end of the offer -- I just have real alternatives. So under this model, my first offer is my final offer. If you counter me without presenting me an angle that I overlooked when weighing the incentives, cya and GL no harm done.

If I don't have real alternatives, I haven't been creative enough in identifying my options. Or I have certain limiting beliefs around other desirable options that make them appear undesirable. I've yet to encounter a relevant paradox that I wasn't able to balance. It just required me to validate an initially unseen or overlooked option. Moreover, I'm not concerned with any paradox that isn't relevant to my direct expansion, b/c it's overly insistent to demand the capacity to balance all paradox from a single limited individuation of consciousness. This type of insistence will stunt your growth. Honoring relevance is a prerequisite for intelligent expansion. Essentially any paradox that doesn't strike ME as relevant is no paradox to me at all, b/c it doesn't pack enough punch to register in my consciousness as paradoxical for longer than it takes me to dismiss it as irrelevant. I'd rather focus back onto incentive points that are of higher relevance to my freedom and expansion -- those are my paradoxes b/c they contain the symbols that are demanding balance in my direct experience, and THAT is relevant.

In other news my new RIO vid drops tomorrow!

Nick Howard 9 years ago

Listening to Tommy Angelo's new video today I found myself reminiscing when he started talking about whether or not he could remember being on the really bad end of a bet. I moved out to vegas when I was 21 with roommates who redefined degen. We all had solid 6 figure bankrolls at the time which made it way worse. I literally could not chill with these 2 kids without getting sucked into putting money up on ridiculous shit. One time I bet one of them 2k that I could eat 2 loaded Giant subs from Jersey Mike's in under 30 minutes. I crushed the first one in 6 minutes, but I already knew I was fucked. Insistently, I plodded on and capped out at like 1.5sub, puking everywhere. After the bet my friend told me that he would've bought out for $1,500 if I'd offered it at minute 7. It wasn't even something that crossed my mind at the time.

I'm sipping on a chianti somewhere in italy with my bitch. Here's to seeing all the angles.

AF3 9 years ago

Laughing at the last line...are you referring to your dog or your girl?

Nick for President!

Mercurius 9 years ago

Hi,

My english is limited, I can read but writting is a lot more difficult, so sorry in advance for all mistakes and inapropriate words I will use.

You speak a lot about learning, and about what many people see as personal developement.
It's of course extremely important but if in reality most people don't change the way they are in poker and in most aspect of theyre life , don't you think it's not only a problem of how they have learn, or learn to learn, but of how they are built ?
And when I say built I don't speak about experience but how they are made geneticaly.
Recently I tend to look at a lot more things using this perspective of natural selection.
And it's in fact extremly efficient.
Just as an example than I found funny of how use the evolutioning theory theyre is this type of things :
https://edwarddutton.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/intell-928.pdf

You probably know many more poker pro player than me (I personaly know 0), do you think than they have one natural ability. It could be anything but do you think they have something different than most common player ?
Is it IQ, balls, anything, or a combination of multiple quality ?

Because I could have train all my life at running since I'm born I would never have beat Ussain Bolt. In french we say : "Quand on veut on peut" - When you want you can.
I prefer the phrase of the great french thinker Frédéric Delavier "Quand on veut on peut, sauf quand on peut pas" - When you want you can, except when you can not.

With your experience as a poker coach you should have seen what type of guys was moving up and who don't.
If you had to mesure the natural ability of a poker player on what part of a player personality you would take a look ?

Nick Howard 9 years ago

@ Mercurious, with regard to the idea that genetic presets may be a substantial factor in the capacity of a learner -

I think it's generally a huge cop-out. Without even complicating it, all someone with limited genetics would have to ask themselves is:

How does it benefit me to hold the perspective that I'm limited?

It doesn't. Understanding relevance is a big factor in realizing that. It wouldn't be intelligent for a happy person to conclude that they're genetically limited b/c they'll never be an olympic athlete, or an astronaut -- b/c they've clarified that it's not fundamentally relevant for their happiness. To hold insistent perspectives regarding one's limitation is, counterintuitively, extremely arrogant, but unfortunately our society has chosen to classify it as humble. True humility is not that. It's when you balance the insistence of perspectives rooted in limitation, by exposing how irrelevant they are for you to increase your capacity. You can't become humble by contracting yourself into something small and limited, you have to literally sacrifice everything, including your personal image, to follow desirious zones of perspectives that are unbounded by concepts of limitation. Only by expanding into everything can you become truly humble, bc this is what's required to dissolve the insistence of ego. It's counter-intuitive to the mainstream no-ego culty-ness all around us, which is why spiritual people give spirituality a bad rap. You can't minimize the ego. You can only allow it to diffuse into more expanded states of consciousness by becoming unbiased that you were ever limited by the concept of limitation.

On the flipside of what's relevant, a fucking double amputee climbed Mt. Everest.

Mercurius 9 years ago

True.
"It's a question of relevance. It wouldn't be intelligent for a happy person to conclude that they're genetically limited b/c they'll never be an olympic athlete, or an astronaut -- b/c they've clarified that it's not fundamentally relevant for their happiness"

It's a fondamental right of any people to chose what make him happy.
I don't like the term of limited genetically than you use it give the impression than theyre is a sort of ranking. That's not my thinking.
As a very extrapolate example I will not say than a fox is less limited than a mold.
They are just different and have different adaption and capacity.

The big question is how to choose by ourself where we will put our effort in order to get the maximum happiness income.
That's not an easy question and someone who have the goal of having a nice simple life with is family could be 10 times more happy to go to work every morning than a world star sprinter than always finish second and have the goal of being the best.

"Les goûts et les couleurs ça ne se discute pas" - Tastes and colors that can not be discussed

Same apply for goals, they can only be small and limited, or to big and extreme, in the mind of other people.
But we, I, should not care what people think of my goals.

That been said I'm sure you will recognised than talent (naturaly) exist in any activity.
Generaly when a new activity appears, the most talented people have the first place.
Then after a little times the biggest worker take the first place, and after a little more times the betters ones are the combination of the two quality.
I don't know where we are in poker actually.

And that's what I'm interesting in this moment what's the natural talent in poker ?
How I can recognise it ? In what others aspect of life this talent interfer ?

Any idea ?

AF3 9 years ago

I think there's a huge difference between the "talent" of having the ideal body ratios and muscle types to be a sprinter, and the ability to learn skills through smart frameworks for learning....

Read "Moonwalking With Einstein", for example, which is an awesome book because the guy actually went out a did something instead of these ivory tower fucks who like to sit back and comment.

Mercurius 9 years ago

AF3
I don't want to make a polemic on this thread but we don't know much about the brain.

Why the capacity of learning could not be in our gene as it is for weight lifting ?
We are all made from DNA and all this particul follow the rules of nature.
I personaly don't see why the brain would be the only part of human being to not following this rules. Except if your are creationist, witch is perfectly acceptable but scientificly refuted.

The second part of your comment I don't see any link with what I have said. Do you think than having a good capacity to learn condamn people to sit on their hand ?
That's autism, some can be good learner but not often.
As a rectangle can be a square.

Disharmonist 8 years, 11 months ago

@ Mercurius Ofc there are limitations due to genetical dispositions. Intelligence is vastly determined by our biology, but it can be compensated to some degree. Obviously most ppl are average intelligent. There are ppl you have an isufficiency concerning their cognitive abilities, while some others are geniuses. The question is: Do you need have to be that genius to win at poker?

Knowing your own limitations is natural and healthy. I bet with normal physical and mental capacities could become average in most fields by practising a lot. But do we want that? Being mediocre at best, challenging ourselfs and investing so much time and effort into it? I guess not.

I just dont understand this "you can do anything if you just believe in yourself and work hard" mentality. That is what the few fortunate might tell, but who says they are right? When we succed, we like to attribute that on our skill our capabilities or endurance or diligence.

When we fail, it is natural and healthy to "blame" external factors such as bad luck at first. Actually ppl who dont do that to at least some extent are quiet unnatural in their perception and rarely found.

Nick Howard 9 years ago

@ Mercurius,

I think in the PIO era we've entered a stage where the guys who will move to the leading edge are the ones who approach the solver with humility and guide their process through relevance. Once tools of PIO's capacity are utilized efficiently, it's inevitable that the gap will quickly close on the naturals. In a way, the naturals were just the most intelligent at "learning in the dark", b/c they understood intuitively that self trust was the most efficient form of guidance they had at their disposal. The rest of us just stood around waiting for the lights to come on.

AF3 9 years ago

Just watched your Relevance video and sent you a PM about it -- the punchline from the book I recommended is that twhen the guy is deciding what to do, he asks himself "what's the ONE thing that makes everything else easier or unnecessary" and the whole book is basically about expanding on that idea

Nick Howard 9 years ago

Yo from Rome! Got my first sunburn of the year yesterday. Finishing up 3 months in Europe and then jumping puddles for a few days on my way back to the states, where i'll be bunkered down for a week to record pack 1 of "PIO Unlocked", my new private coaching course set to drop on April 12. I'm pleased to announce it will include a 2 week money back guarantee (yes, really). I'll follow up with a more detailed post on the course sometime later this week. In the meantime, my advice to all you guys is to take it real easy. Relief is coming. Your ambition is honorable and it's the reason I do what I do what for the community. You should have highly simplified, highly accurate tools that allow you to emerge as the independent beasts that you all desire to become.

Much love and support -

A true warrior surrenders long before the battle

Nick Howard 9 years ago

"PIO Unlocked" is my new private coaching course, available April 12. It builds cumulatively through two packs, with accurate strategy simplifications stemming from hundreds of hours of my own PIO solver exploration. I built the course with the intention of offering students a training model that blends intelligent strategy simplification with an approach to PIO that allows for a smooth upward spiral into higher levels of contextual integration. It is designed to transform you into an independent thinker and equip you with the tools necessary to relevantly guide your own learning process with PIO as your servant.

Pack 1:
-Releases April 12
-$1200. FULL REFUND available for 2 weeks after purchase

Pack 2:
-Releases May 5.
-$1600. No refund on this pack. To be eligible for pack 2, you must have bought pack 1 and not refunded

The total course will be 8-10 hours of densely edited content. Access will be granted through dropbox invite, and students will receive unlimited free Q&A sessions through dropbox comments.

My goal is to provide a positive ecosystem for players who have completely clarified that they want to handle their career. I am guaranteeing group placement to the first 40 guys who grab pack 2. Teams will be grouped in fours by relevance - same sites and stakes. Pack 2 buyers after #40 will be put on an alternate list.

Groups will receive my discounted rate of $750/hr. I only charge for scheduled lesson time. I will be available daily on skype to guide your group's direction towards the highest perceivable benefit.

Poker shouldn't take over your life, it should enrich your life. I've included the refund to make the initial commitment as easy as possible for you. I only want your money if you love what my product does for your life. For guys who go the distance with pack 2, prepare for a very cool experience as you head into teams.

For more info and updates, check out my free content dropbox. If you're not in it yet, PM me your email address for a direct invite. Thanks for continuing to read my blog!

Nick Howard 9 years ago

"PIO Unlocked" pack 1 is dropping on Tuesday (April 12). 100% refund available for 2 weeks post-purchase. Your guys' PM questions regarding the product have been great and allowed me to clarify a lot of relevant stuff through my dropbox uploads. Thank you for helping me with the process. For those of you preparing for purchase, here are the payment options available for pack 1.

Bitcoin - PM me for wallet
Skrill - niddybeat@gmail.com
Paypal - nextsteppoker@gmail.com
Chase Quickpay - niddybeat@gmail.com

Prepayment is now available. $1200 is the cost for this pack. Please allow me 24 hours to process your payment and invite you to the dropbox.

Bitcoin: PM me the wallet # or wallet name you sent from, and the email you want added for dropbox course access.

Skrill: Please PM me with the email associated with your Skrill purchase. If you want a different email added to the dropbox, please specify through PM.

Paypal/Chase QP: PM me upon purchase to notify me. If you want a different email added to the dropbox, please specify through PM.

All pre-payments will receive course access by the end of the day on April 12, EST. Your refund option will remain available for 2 weeks after the date of your purchase.

non-RIO members can notify me of purchase at piounlocked@gmail.com

Thank you guys for making this a very easy launch for me.

-Sneak peek footage of Pack 1 is now up in the Free Content dropbox
-My new RIO vid drops tomorrow

Enjoy the rest of your vacation ;)

FriendlyCritter 9 years ago

Just a small thought/question. I should also mention that I'm not a potential customer, so this doesn't impact me. And the opinion of your customers are of course the only thing that matters. I'm just curious. You say:

"Teams will be grouped in fours by relevance - same sites and stakes."

Does it make sense to group same stake and (more importantly) same site guys in the same group? In terms of finding population exploits and such it definitely does. But if these fellas play vs each other on a regular basis, couldn't that end up stifling the discussion a bit?

Peace!

Nick Howard 9 years ago

@Friendly
Good Q. As I see it, environmental trends are paramount for a team to find relevant direction at high levels of modeling work. So they need to be in the same environment, and it helps a lot to merge databases. The risk of winrate lost vs. your 3 other teammates is negligable. Environments are not that small.

Nick Howard 9 years ago

There's only one way to truly give less fucks. You have to care. A lot. About the perspectives you engage with on a moment to moment basis, and the emotional responses at the other end of them. If you truly want freedom, you have to become humble enough to challenge the credibility of your own thoughts. You have to allow yourself to be swallowed into the black hole of humility. Imagine surrendering your mental model once a minute, back into the abyss, for iteration -- representing the complete admission that you failed at balancing your own experience. Nothing left but to give up the act. Sense into the the acceleration that's possible at this level of deep acceptance and availability. To truth. To that which exists before you try to define it with labels and assessments. Leading only to more labels and more assessments. Leaving you tired and suffering. Full to the brim with neglected incentive.

Eventually you will be forced into surrender. It's the only inevitability. The only choice you have in that matter is whether or not you decide to beat life to the punch. This is the constant invitation. Until it's accepted, there is very little you can do to gain experiential control. This is the nature of subjectivity. The experiencer is pinned under his own imbalances. What a bitch you are, life! What a perfect game you play! How thorough and efficient you are! And how badly we want to beat you into submission! And how futile our attempt is. Until we give up.

To truly become available to solutions requires that we stop attempting to make them understandable from imbalanced perception. Surrender your models. Solutions at the highest level of balance are unreasonable. But to see from that place is all the reason one would ever need. To never go back. To never conclude. To truly give less fucks. You have to care.

Nick Howard 9 years ago

HOW TO TEACH:

step 1: get to advanced level context
step 2: distill advanced level context
step 3: lace noob context with distilled themes
step 4: light that shit
step 5: smoke that shit

get rowdy

tournymontana 9 years ago

Any reviews from people who have purchased the pack?

Nick Howard 8 years, 11 months ago

The reviews I posted in dropbox were screenshots from messages I received personally from buyers. I didn't ask permission to expose their identities so i kept it anonymous. At some point I'm gonna move the free dropbox content and training packs over to a more versatile domain, at which point i'll add an area for public reviews.

Nick Howard 8 years, 11 months ago

in terms of knowledge, the simplest understanding is always the most intelligent. It takes the highest wisdom to be able to speak and be heard by all.

Nick Howard 8 years, 11 months ago

Pre-payment for Pack 2 opens on May 5th, and the box will open on May 8th. The price is $1600 and payment details are the same as usual. Pack 1 is still available for purchase, you must have bought Pack 1 to be eligible for Pack 2. I am still guaranteeing 40 group coaching slots for Pack 2 buyers, in order of purchase. If I reach 40, I will make an announcement. Until then, check out my Free Content dropbox for the upcoming course syllabus and sneak peaks for Pack 2. Thanks to all -

Nick

Nick Howard 8 years, 11 months ago

The reason the community developed a GTO neurosis was 2-fold:

1) There was not enough emphasis put on how exploitable the environments were. The pools were (and remain) very exploitable.

2) The community suffers from a lack of self trust, which causes a general aversion to a more care-free, exploitative approach to the game.
-They don't trust themselves to deviate accurately from the idea of GTO
-They don't trust themselves to be able to detect when they're being re-exploited for their chosen exploits.

If you thoroughly investigate your environment, put in the necessary modeling work, and trust yourself to apply exploits decisively, your win-rate will go up. If someone is exploiting you, exploit them back. Don't go into a GTO shell, that's a mind-trap. You can't play GTO. And that's ok, b/c it's not relevant for you to crush.

"But I'll still get exploited by someone whose playing GTO vs me, if I'm not playing GTO!".

No one's playing GTO. Someone might be playing more balanced than you, but in that sense, they're still fairly exploitable. At the end of the day, save your best attempts at balance for early street stragetic option simplifications, and for later streets vs the best regs. The most intelligent strategies are the ones that make the most money vs the pool, because that's actually the common goal. Before forums, before GTO, before training content, the goal was to win the most money. This is highly relevant. This is a clarification that can direct us towards highest benefit when assessing how we want to train.

Pio Unlocked Pack 2 dropped today. Pack 1 is still available. Sneak Peeks and all that good shit are up in the Free Content dropbox. Here's to the new breed of independent minds.

bttard 8 years, 11 months ago

Did anyone else have this weird, unordered excel output, when you tried to aggregate? Do you know how to fix it?

Nick Howard 8 years, 11 months ago

Hey, try this .. one of my other students left me this message recently, I think it's the same thing you're dealing with:

If you have someone with the same excel problem you can let them know
that it has to do with regional settings on their computer and they
need to find delimiter settings and choose "." as a decimal delimiter
and a comma (",") as a field delimiter. Guess it will happen to Europe
people only.

Nick Howard 8 years, 11 months ago

Pack 2 of my course for private students became available about a week ago. I've been able to place those guys into groups and finally have some free time to do some inventory. In an effort to remain transparent, I'm just going to list the membership numbers since Pack 1 released on April 10th.

Pack 1:

Total Members: 37
Total Refunds: 4
Refund rate: 11%

Considering there was some Pack 1 pirating that occurred, I am very happy with only 11% refunds on a $1200 course.

I had 15-20 current students at the time that I launched pack 1. They all received a free pack 1 and are not included in the above member totals. They are however included in the pack 2 totals:

Pack 2:
Total Members: 34
Pack 1 holders who have already purchased pack 2: 64%

I really have no basis for what good conversion rates are. But to me 64% makes me happy, knowing that there are more pack 1 guys who have emailed me saying they plan to eventually upgrade to pack 2.

This has been a great experience for me so far. The sales are encouraging, but overall it's been most rewarding to see my vision turning out the way I imagined it. I began this with the intention to offer up a really positive ecosystem to network guys who wanted to study alongside partners with great work ethic and a common, simplified contextual foundation. Pack 2 skype groups just got underway and I can tell just by scrolling through the chats that these guys are hungry! It's fun to be among that level of enthusiasm with burnout being so common in this industry. I feel honored to have been able to do this, genuinely I want to thank everyone who's been a part of it, including the haters. And also thanks to the guys who stole the product to torrent it. You've inspired me to start buying CD's again. A true full circle moment for me!

Both packs are still available for purchase. Once I fill the last group slots available from this wave of Pack 2 members, future group placement will probably be done on a monthly basis. The Free Content folder will likely be moving over to a new domain where I'll have more ability to upload new content without space restrictions. Thanks to everyone.

arizonabay 8 years, 11 months ago

You've inspired me to start buying CD's again

Oh buying physical CD's? Thats reminds me of the early 2000's - you should check out some streaming services that have a monthly fee but access to a LOT of music - there are very few albums that I cant find (no Tool on Itunes or Spotify, which obviously makes me sad, but most certainly worth $10 a month or whatever). Lugging around physical CD's seems like it would get tough on your back eventually w/ as much travel as you do yikes.

Ok so this was a rather long pointless post so I will end it with something positive - thanks for working for the community and I feel lucky that the community has you in their corner. Thanks.

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

Thanks :)

I dont read much, so i only have 2:

"The Art of Learning" - Josh Waitzkin
"Peak" - Anders Ericcson

I love material that attempts to connect intuition and logic, as opposed to separating them. Both of those books hit on that level.

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

Today I posted on hands in the forums for about an hour and I have this takeaway:

If the attention was directed toward WHY the question is being asked in the first place, it would allow the questioner to self-correct much faster. Basically because it would remind him to clarify what he actually cares so much about. Most guys just assume that they should be approaching hand histories in a way that seeks to confirm that they played their hand in a well balanced way. If that's your goal, you're already setting your sights really low. Without looking at your hand I'll guess it's a mixed strategy. And I'll be right the vast majority of the time. Most of you guys are not making a lot of gaping pure strategy mistakes. You're not calling with the nuts to close the action otr (PENALTY). Where you're struggling is in your application of mixed strategies, and this at the effect of an initial oversight. I'm talking about the one where you concluded it was incentivized to play highly mixed strategies in the first place. At balance, yes. In real life, no. The environments are begging you to simplify your mixed strategies in the direction that exploits the pool. Get on the offensive and start gaining vision over your environment, so that you can start taking the space your opponents are leaving behind. Instead of going into your balance-shell and acting like it's helping you. It's not helping you grow. It's only helping you avoid the truth of the matter, which is that it makes sense to change how you're doing things.

If I can change
and you can change
then everybody can change

-Rocky

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

I want to intellectualize the meaning of self love so that it becomes understandable for guys who tend to think more with their mind and not with their heart. I really believe I could have benefited a ton in my 20s if someone took the time to explain this to me logically. So here goes:

Self love is nothing more than the decision to direct your focus into the single most beneficial thought frequency that you have access to at any given time. By beneficial I mean the thought pattern that offers the most mental/emotional relief, and feels the most holistically balanced. To do this with a single-pointed focus requires a great deal of devotion and surrender (of assumption). As a culture we've learned to coin the subjectively generated experience of this balance as "love", which doesn't help people who have not experientially validated the frequency of consciousness evoked by that balance. Ultimately it can only be validated through direct experience, but I do think you can build context toward it by understanding the logic behind it.

Haters are a good example of poor logic. To avoid the pain of their own imbalance, they conclude that the most intelligent (or beneficial) thing for them to do is attempt to invalidate the paradigms of others. This is fear based and compensatory. They project their own guilt onto their environment in a way that offers a momentary deflection from their core feelings of unworthiness. It's a very poor use of thought, simply because it's redundant. It offers no benefit. It's stupid.

Cliffs:

-Thought frequencies are structurally real, and domains of well-balanced thought evoke warm happy feelings and accelerated growth.

-haters are confused people who are perpetuating their own mental/emotional futility. Show them love. It's the only way to respond from wisdom.

Gandalf 8 years, 8 months ago

Focus on thoughts however helpful, come at a cost of non-thinking activities. I would argue that- especially for our community- (self-)love is achieved through a high frequency of 'acting', not thinking. Love is a verb type of thing.

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

@ Gandalf

I agree with that a lot. I also think that action is largely at the effect of well balanced thought. Unless youre one of those people who can just barrel thru your limiting beliefs with right action, but thats a rare breed.

Gandalf 8 years, 8 months ago

Definitely not of that breed ;-)

I guess I recognize myself alot in this statement:

or guys who tend to think more with their mind and not with their heart. I really believe I could have benefited a ton in my 20s if someone took the time to explain this to me logically.

This population type, even more so than others, uses logical explanations to 'get it'.

Focus on the quality of those explanations, that self-narrative that seems to be most effective towards our goals, therefore seems highly beneficial to me.

I guess what I have stumbled upon alot myself is that its a double-edged sword; craving that logical explanation, but by seeking it and clarifying it, enhancing the tendency to think, think, think.

If we consider trust to be all about not thinking, not needing explanation (anymore). Its a weird paradox. Using thinking to (eventually) think less or not at all. In that sense it sorta trains my mind to not trust, love, let gooo, if that makes sense. And to the same degree, not thinking just doing is training to trust.

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

When you allow yourself to see the implieds in strengthing your foundation, you can begin to approach the learning process with an energy that maximizes your ability to leverage growth. This is a major key to accelerating without burnout.

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

My new site is going up tonight! This is a soft launch to make sure that everything is working the way it should be. Thanks to all of you who supported my content, you made it possible for me to move my stuff to a larger platform. I'm going to be uploading a new free audio every day, based on questions that have been submitted through the site. My goal is to offer some daily advice to help you guys accelerate your growth in areas that are frustrating you.

Also, I'll be hosting a Reddit "Ask Me Anything" Event tomorrow from 9AM-7PM PST. If you're interested in stopping by, please do me a favor and RSVP to the event, and post your questions on the event page ahead of time:
https://www.facebook.com/events/807571592678001/

It'll make it easier for us to get the AMA started!

site: www.pokerdetox.com

Grateful

ClouD 8 years, 8 months ago

Hey Nick, have you made available graphs and feedbacks of your students before and after they have taken the program?

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

Hey Cloud. I'm working on compiling all that stuff from guys who are willing to send me their results. Should have some graphs added to the pack details page of the new site within the week.

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

I'm doing this "Ask Me Anything" event right now on Reddit .. had some good discussion so far, and some good trolls :) . Feel free to jump in through the link below, i'll be on until 6pm EST.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/4x2sdv/iamaprofessionalpokerplayerandcoachhere/

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

The biggest thing thats holds the poker community back:

We are dependent on arriving at certain solutions in the way that we
THINK that we need to, in order for those solutions to be worth something.

This happens because of the belief we've built up around the implication of dropping an insistent pattern of thought:

"If i admit I'm wrong, it lessens me".

I want you to understand that this is the furthest from the truth, so you can stop hurting yourself in the same way I hurt myself. I talk to you as a brother who has suffered along side you and who remains in tune with your darkness, because I know it as my own. Now understand me: If i was forced to choose between 10 minutes of the worst torture, or the decade of mental/emotional pain I endured from THIS one belief^, i would laugh and take the knife with grace. I would take it, with love in my heart and the most eager anticipation. There is no pain like the one that is self inflicted and relentless.

Someone asked me recently how to cut through insistent thought patterns. Start by realizing that they cause you pain. That they only lead to more insistence and more assessments. That they can't correct their initial imbalance. That they reinforce their own distortions. Then realize that you are NOT that thought pattern. You just believe the voice in your head, because it's subtler than you've trained yourself to detect. When you assume your biases, that is true arrogance. The arrogance is what is painful.

I don't do the bible, but I can't do better than it today:

"That is why, for Christ’s sake, I delight in weaknesses, in insults,
in hardships, in persecutions, in difficulties. For when I am weak,
then I am strong."

Understand this.

AF3 8 years, 8 months ago

"We are dependent on arriving at certain solutions in the way that we
THINK that we need to, in order for those solutions to be worth something."

That's interesting -- so you're saying that you think it's common to confuse the familiarity of the method for it's efficiency​?

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

Here is a different way of expressing what I meant in the beginning of the last post:

The solutions to most problems reveal that the problem was not
actually relevant to solve in the first place.

And by the problem not being relevant, I just mean that there was an alternate way around the perceived obstacle that was much more efficient than the way I was attempting to do it initially (in my own experience).

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

Any study that attempts to invalidate the power of intuition is a massive waste of time. The very nature of intuition is such that you are required to trust in yourself beyond a certain threshold of reasonable doubt, before you can develop consistent and refined access to intuition.

When studies are performed on groups of people who don't actually trust themselves, those studies are redundant and inconclusive. We don't have a chance at revealing the true power of intuition if we insist on basing our studies on a civilization that is so notoriously imbalanced, and then making the mistake of calling that "objective" research.

AF3 8 years, 8 months ago

The nature of intuition is that it's an instinct which moves much faster than the part of your brain which even thinks about things like trust and defining intuition.

If I drop somebody off a building, gravity works whether they "trust" themselves or not.

You can just turn around and say that any study which attempts to "invalidate" intuition is actually just attempting to retrain it.

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

Today I launched the Skype group networking page as part of the membership option on my new site. Basically it's something I wanted to put together for a long time so that guys can get connected with relevant partners who play similar sites/stakes. I can say from the first wave of the Pio Unlocked buyers that the Skype groups really activated them. For some reason it gives a sense of accountability that just isn't there when you're studying on your own, and it's great for divying up modeling work between partners to speed up the process. Below is a picture so you can see what the page looks like. Everyone is able to fill out their profile stating what they're looking for, and you can message each other from there to link up. Since the site is just getting going, I'm going to give anyone who joins a free second month. By then we should have a decently library of skype friends. If not, I'll just keep granting free months until we do :)

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

The idea that NL Holdem has dried up is as assumptive as the idea that there are no other intelligent life forms in the universe. In fact the NL argument is way more assumptive, b/c we have way more vision over what's going on in that environment than we do over the universe:

-99% of pros are unable to consistently study in ways that are relevant for their growth. To argue that this is because they're in the proximity of their full potential is wildly assumptive. It's way more likely that they lack direction and motivation.

-The majority of winning players have poor mental game posture during downswings. Win-rate regression is going on all over the place.

-Diversification of the bankroll across multiple sites is hugely under-utilized, especially as you approach high stakes.

And there's definitely more great reasons that I'm not seeing while I write this. A major key to balancing your perspectives is to just gain more vision over what's actually going on in the environment. Or you can just play PLO :)

PrhymePoker 8 years, 8 months ago

Nick just wanted to say this thread has been awesome to read through as well as your recent AMA on Reddit. Thanks and keep up the good work!

Nick Howard 8 years, 8 months ago

As a learner, the smartest thing you can do is simplify your responsibility to yourself. The most effective simplification I've found is this:

"I have a duty to ask an efficient question".

An efficient question is one that states its reasoning to the best of its ability, and then asks for feedback on which parts of that reasoning are over-assumptive.

Here's a poorly devised question:

I play micros. How do I combat the fact that people seem to 3-bet me
more aggressively when I take shots at 100nl?

-Before you worry about countering them, you can do database research to see if it's even relevant to, based on their frequencies. You're probably just bias b/c you come from micros where you're not used to getting 3bet much at all. SSNL environments are still universally passive; with a few exceptions they still don't 3bet enough. If you ask a question that directs the attention beyond the point of assumption, you're more likely to get an imbalanced answer. Like "Just 4-bet more then". <-- it's an answer that skims over the initial assumption, which was that the pool was even 3betting a lot to begin with.

Help yourself when you ask questions by using a simple formula:

1) State your reasoning (don't be afraid of being wrong, it's cool).
2) OPENLY ask for feedback on where you're being assumptive in particular parts of your reasoning.

It can do wonders for the quality of the answers you get!

With love as always

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

I don't really have a home. One of my friends told me recently "the world is your home". He meant it literally and I think it's more funny like that. Since January 2016 my home looked like this:

France
Scotland
Ireland
Netherlands
Italy
New York
Miami
Orlando
Vegas
Cancun

All of those rentals were through AirBnB. The service is horrendously overpriced, but dependable. My same friend (who never travels) asked me for advice on how to go about planning a move to Atlantic City for 2 months with the intention of playing on Pokerstars.nj and also at the casinos. Here's my 5 step process for how to do it for as cheap as possible, without sacrificing too much quality of life:

Step 1:
Decide whether or not you are capable of living in a hotel room. If you haven't ever done this before, imagine it for about an hour with your eyes closed and dedication. At the end of that hour, strip about 80% of the novelty and glamor out of it and you'll typically have a good idea of what life will be like after week 2. The point is, in my experience it's been worth having an apartment if you can afford it. Especially when there's virtually nothing pretty about affordable hotel living in Atlantic City for an up and coming grinder.

Let's assume that you've validated the possibility of hotel life.

Step 2:
Make a list of at least 10 different hotels that don't look gross. Don't limit yourself to just the ones in the casinos. Call all of them and ask if they do monthly rates. If they say no, ask them to ask their manager if they would make an exception for 2 months. Sometimes it makes a difference. The point is don't be afraid to ask.

Step 3:
Once you get all the prices on your hotel options, head over AirBnB.com. Type in "Atlantic City, NJ". It will ask you for dates, and then send you to a screen where you can specify your requests. Just make sure you tick "Entire Home", unless you're cool with sharing your place with strangers. Also tick "Wireless Internet". It's all verified and guaranteed, which is nice. if you get there and it doesn't work, the host will either fix it promptly or AirBnB will refund you. Lastly, select your price range for your rent budget. Hit search.

Here's an example of a potential option:

$1174/mo:
https://www.airbnb.com/s/Atlantic-City--NJ--United-States?checkin=01%2F01%2F2017&checkout=02%2F01%2F2017&roomtypes%5B%5D=Entire+home%2Fapt&pricemax=2343&ssid=jr845omb&page=1&source=filters&airbnbplusonly=false&stag=ci6oV3RS

Step 4:
Lowball the host via the private message option. Most places are usually marked up 40% of the normal rental price, because AirBnB pretty much has a monopoly for short term rentals. Just be respectful and play the incentive game, like anything else. Tell them you're interested in booking immediately if they will do 2 months at 60% price (use a real dollar amount). They'll usually counter. You can either hold or re-counter. I don't like this game, but it's necessary to play it when hosts are abusing the market. A lot of these renters are struggling financially and will cave on a decent 2 month offer. A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush, etc. Keep in mind you don't have to pay the full amount up front for monthly bookings. Usually it's just half, and the other half mid-way through your stay.

This process will probably take a few days, but by the end of it you'll have final offers on the places you're considering. Weigh them against your hotel rates. Figure out how many days a week you want to play in casinos, and factor transport costs into your AirBnB options. Keep in mind there might be really cheap public transport options to the casinos.

Step 5:
Lastly, factor in the intangibles. If you book the option I linked above, think about how cool it will feel to look out your window every morning at all the Jersey Shore bros tanning and dripping with hair gel. Or to be able to see your taxi pull up from your balcony and announce "cabs are here", just because it's awesome and just because you can. Little stuff like this can make the difference. I know it's not objective, but your happiness is ultimately subjective, so use your imagination.

Hopefully this helps you guys get past the starting friction of booking a trip you've been thinking about taking for a while. If anyone is interested in more travel advice, feel free to post here or PM me, I'd be happy to help.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

Performance is ultimately the only thing that matters. If your theory studies are consistently causing confusion and frustration in-game, you have every incentive to simplify the theoretical concepts that you're working with at that stage in your evolution. It's assumptive to think simplification comes at the expense of accuracy, especially when you are in something for the long-run. You always have enough time to build a stronger foundation, the implieds are massive.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

If you saw an opening to become a version of yourself that you never imagined was possible, what would the odds of success need to be before you could go all-in? Would you need it to be a lock? A coinflip? Could you find conviction as an underdog? What if our greatest explorers passed on the long shots and played it safe? Columbus could've easily bitched out in the face of social pressure. How many like him were never known because they folded prematurely? How much do you value legacy and contribution, over what you perceive as safety and control? Imagine the momentum we would gain as a civilization if we each gave ourselves fully to a dream, instead of justifying all the reasons we can't.

Beautiful day in Cancun

sauloCosta10 8 years, 7 months ago

You have the ability to inspire people in a way that few can. My fiance knows nothing about poker, but I started reading this thread to her. Thank you Nick

MrSneeze 8 years, 7 months ago

Imagine the momentum we would gain as a civilization if we each gave ourselves fully to a dream, instead of justifying all the reasons we can't.

This is full of dangers actually. Most of the problems on earth come from people thinking their view of the world is more accurate than their neighbour. Most of the problems also come from people trying to make the world a better place, because they end up fighting fiercely for their view.

So I wouldn't generalize your point from the spectrum of 'an individual in a sphere of performance' to our whole civilization. Because civilization is full of violence and mischief, and surely transferring our performance-based realisations to a 'way of living', is bound to make us even more hyper-competitive and devouring one another.

This is a very dangerous turn our 'civilization' is taking, where war is a way of living.

Don't get carried away too much by 'the power of individuals' or 'realized people'. Realization is a perpetual process of learning. You've probably get that more than most. But don't think for a moment that this gonna solve the world, because EVERYTHING has two sides.

Big dreams have also their nightmares versions. When an individual starts thinking too much that he's special (and he is! each living thing is a unique version of life...), he also starts feeding on others. That's a dangerous process, to exist.

And although the poker vocabulary you're using here (going all-in with decisions, being an underdog, etc) is pretty inspiring, I really doubt that giving oneself fully to a dream is really sound. It can be, maybe for you, maybe for some people, but only sometimes.
Other times, giving oneself to an idea mostly creates fascism in all its subtle variations and manifestations (at the micro level, in a couple, for instance).

Budha was saying that all thought or statement is as true as it is false. I feel that way about your above statement. Yet, by all means, continue to write.

Aleksandra ZenFish 8 years, 7 months ago

Have a little faith in humanity, human beings in its core are good and kind, fulfilling the dream should serve the good cause, not a bad one :-),
and yes..buddha..black sides of things , but surely we as beings ( most of us) are searching for light and white ^_^
Good prevails!

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

@Sneeze

I think it's a valid point that it's risky to inspire an imbalanced individual to "follow his dream", since that dream will usually be corrupted by fear, and cause him to perceive benefit in manipulating others against their will.

That being said, there's a certain futility in our current model of disempowerment, and it still causes war. There's only the illusion of control b/c it's not crumbling at a manic rate (yet). My vote is for risking our potential.

MrSneeze 8 years, 7 months ago

there's a certain futility in our current model of disempowerment

Could you extend on what you mean here? I think I agree, but unsure what you refer to.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

@ Sneeze
Basically just that as a society we put more value on not being judged than following our inspiration, and it's proven itself to be redundant and unfulfilling for long enough to sack the model (imo). The problem like you said, is that not enough people are capable of identifying "pure" inspiration. But at least it's a model with potential, albeit risky.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

The more I learn about myself through poker, the more I consistently see learning inefficiencies in environments that I know much less about.

I pulled up to the gym today and saw this (it's sideways):

This lady is attempting to balance on one leg while standing on a half-shell, while simultaneously shaking the double ropes to make them do the cool wavy thing.

Can we take a moment and honor the complexity of the exercise. And another moment to point out that this lady is far outside of her performance capacity. Not because she's overweight. I was there .. she was wildly imbalanced.

This is what most theory oriented players look like to me when they talk poker. They attempt to justify super complex strategies that are outside of their ability to implement. And they insist that they're being objective. It's a futile arrogance, disguised as intelligence.

I dont advocate simplified post-flop strategy because i think it's the pinnacle. I do it because im aware that it's the most efficient model for the current capacity of 95% of the community, and because it still contains the potential to steer itself into greater accuracy as it interfaces with the dynamics of each player's unique journey toward highest relevance.

Back to the gym. Next thing I know, this lady dismounts off her shell to tell the guy next to her that his dead-lift form is off. From what I could tell, it actually was, but that's not the point. Turns out she's a trainer.

As a student of life, I see a lot of "mentors" out there who try to coach others into a level of performance outside of their OWN capacity. It's important to me that you know that this is something which remains at the forefront of my awareness with everything I share. It's at the forefront because it has not always been, and upon recognizing it in myself, my deepest ambition has been to stop compensating for that which I don't understand. My hope is that when you read me, you either see someone who is transparent about his own journey through ignorance, or someone who is sharing from a place of true wisdom in an area he has explored and balanced thoroughly. My job, as I see it, is to make it clear which of those two aspects of my truth I'm relating from at any given time. There is equally as much to learn from both.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

You can't trust someone's judgement until they trust themselves. At the same time (paradoxically), if you don't believe someone has the decisive potential to trust themselves, through no process at all, that is a projection of your own inability to decisively trust yourself.

The degree to which you can give people the benefit of the doubt over
and over again is the degree to which you are actually intelligent.
-BM

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

Your job is not to worry about upsetting people. Your job is to ground yourself in a presence that suggests through action that to do the right thing is the intelligent thing, regardless of the price. Integrity is the only lasting currency, and its margins happen to be favorable.

Choparno 8 years, 7 months ago

I like this a lot. In contrast is the concern with "reputation" or "image" and being seen to do the right thing, out of concern for how the wrong reputation or hurt feelings might damage one's self-interest, instead of focussing on right action for its own sake.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

It's kind of ironic that I have to make this post right after my last one, but here goes. I got a PM from an honorable member of the community today, showing me this screenshot of a message he received on Skype:

I'm well aware of the risks in selling a packaged course, and I've assumed them so that I have the potential to reach a wider audience. I've lost over $50,000 in sales from torrent theft since June, and that doesn't bother me as much as someone pretending to be affiliated with me, and repackaging my shit to distribute it for less. If you get any sort of message from someone trying to push you my products, it's not anyone on my team. Thanks to all of you who continue to support me from integrity.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

Any craft you embark on will eventually become a pure reflection of your level of honesty with yourself. If you insist on giving less than what's required, your craft will perpetually expose your unwillingness to balance the very biases that are obstacling you. It will do that in the form of poor results and pain. To give yourself fully to a craft is to understand yourself on the most essential level, and that type of understanding has the ability to serve as a premium building block for your next adventure. Quit or commit, because they're both more intelligent than kidding yourself.

New RIO vid up today :)

MuckMyNuts 8 years, 6 months ago

Duuuuude... I've been mulling over thoughts along these lines for the past few weeks and reading this instantly brought everything into focus. Sharing from a place of true wisdom indeed. Thank you!

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

I've had several near death experiences in the last 2 years.

In the moment where you firmly believe you are about to die, the mind has a choice to struggle or surrender. I've tried both, and here's what I found the most interesting:

At the point of a full surrender (to what you're convinced is impending doom), the sense of identity diffuses beyond the normal thresholds of the body and mind.

I'm not interested in arguing for or against an afterlife. A simple observation is much more relevant to me:

Surrender brought great relief, while struggle prolonged suffering.

For this reason, surrender seemed to be holistically incentivized. It achieved what struggle set out to but couldn't secure. And it did so in no time at all. The sense of freedom was immense and infinite. The clarity and vibrancy was paradoxical. In comparison to struggling, surrender was so clearly the solution to the existential paradox.

I came away with this idea, and I have tried to apply it vigorously to my every day life:

The nature of control is counterintuitive. In order to gain control,
you have to sacrifice control, so you can become more
available to the true meaning of control.

I invite you to play at this level.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

If time didn't exist, experience would be infinite. Poker players would likely default toward the polarities:

-There would be guys who took wild shots in hopes of sticking the landing (there's infinite time to rebuild after all)

-There would be guys who relaxed completely, and began rebuilding their foundation.

Consider that both of these polarities are actually more intelligent than the community norm, which is to half-step in futility.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

The biggest leak I see in players across the board:

They lose too much at non-showdown.

There have been arguments made in the past that non-showdown winnings serve no purpose as a metric for analyzing win-rate efficiency. That argument is the results of 2 main biases:

-A lack of vision over the overarching passivity-imbalance of the pools

-A general complacency with a style that has already obtained good results, while still losing a lot at non-showdown.

Never settle!

Dddogkillah 8 years, 7 months ago

Best spot to start to correct these leaks??
Could be a great video idea
I know you mentioned something in your last vid about video idea's :)

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

An interview on success and personal fulfillment with a really insightful guy who you might not expect:

http://lewishowes.com/podcast/rob-dyrdek/

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

The most balanced action is always the one that drives the model closer to equilibrium by maximally exploiting the last iteration. If you can see that this is all the solvers have ever done, you can break out of the GTO spell. "Optimal" is a rigid interpretation of balance.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

What I enjoy most about coaching is a particular flavor of student. The one who comes with a sense of urgency usually has my full attention. For the very reason that when urgency is real in a person, there is a higher than normal availability for truth, and that is a coach's delight.

Usually these are the guys with families, or major debt. It's rare to find a young 20-something with a real sense of urgency. I know life is unfolding at it's own pace for all of us, but I can't help but feel that it's highly relevant for most people to reach that point of urgency sooner rather than later, with whatever they're battling with. And then you have my full attention. You have my infinite patience, as a coach and as a person. Because in your urgency, you're matching my ambition for deeper truth. And there is great connection to be found there. There is great relief and healing to be found there. Those moments are rare and often the fullest. Those moments need to be honored, not feared. Those moments are ones of deep, deep rememberence.

Thanks to all of you who play your hearts out.

FROMNOW 8 years, 7 months ago

Einstein and Jesus decide to play each other every day for two hours during one year. Einstein loses a lot and just cant seem to beat Jesus. He decides to increase his balance, Jesus is always one step ahead in their exploiting war and it is driving him crazy. Over time he is forced to play the perfect equilibrium. This Jesus guy seems to always know what he has and this way he figures he will not be exploited again. Even though he knows that this will lead Jesus to play in the same way as him, the perfect equilibrium and this will lead both to play break even vs each other, he actually rejoices that idea and imagines both of them in the near future having a conversation over a glass of wine about how in perfect conditions two truth seekers and finders will inevitably adapt their play to the perfect equilibrium leaving the winner to the one who has won the most in that process. But.. this is not what happens, Jesus continues to crush him. Einstein figures he is missing something really big. He starts to think day and night untill one morning he wakes up and he realises what it is. It had little to do with poker and thats why it was so hard for him to find out that the key was that his main assumption about the reality in which he lives was completely off. In theory Jesus cant see Einstein's whole cards but what if there is more than the five senses?

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

The key to becoming a better problem solver lies in training yourself to expand your vision into territory that wasn't previously being seen as a relevant consideration for the problem at hand. You see this a lot with poker. When you try to force a solution to a "close" spot based on 1 street of information, you're straying from relevance. Many times, you can expand your vision to multiple streets, and the solution becomes clear. Finding ways to get around impossibly mixed strategies while retaining accuracy is one of the most important parts of the journey. You can do it if you gain more vision over your environment.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

Accuracy is found in the willingness to shift your focus to the most incentivized point of view at any given time. Happiness is the effect of doing that over, and over, and over again.

MrSneeze 8 years, 7 months ago

Would you say that your systemic vision is about letting natural drive(s) expresses itself naturally through and by us?
Or at the contrary letting ourselves go to were the situation naturally leads us? Is it actually a 'natural' process?

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

@Sneeze

I think it's actually both, and I think its very natural, because the unchallenged assumption is that you're fundamentally separate from the environment. That becomes less and less true as you go closer to the quantum level.

What's not natural is how we've conditioned ourselves to perceive benefit in exploring from heavy resistance. There's intense distortion and redundancy that comes from resistant exploration, because it's not genuinely available to alternate perspectives. It's afraid of them for whatever reason, and that's the basis of the personal journey: to minimize the distortion between the personally asserted biases and "reality".

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

My new coaching rate is < $100 hr. The catch is, you have to work your ass off for a month straight to get that rate. Below is an outline of a new coaching model that I've used with a couple guys over the summer, and am ready to make it available on a larger scale.

Unlimited coaching for 30 days

Here's the format:

The week before we begin, you provide me with..
-A short background, and the sites/stakes you currently play
-stats (i'll tell you exactly which ones to send)
-a 45 minute video of a recent pre-recorded session, or a hand history review, where you voice over with your thought process during the hands. This gets me familiar with where your mental game is currently at.

From there I will start tailoring a lesson plan specifically for you, to optimize your growth over the first week or so. The initial stages of the course will be centered around bringing awareness to the most relevant aspects of your game that you need to adjust for immediate win-rate improvements in your environment, and providing you with the exercises necessary for you to integrate those changes as quickly as possible. You will need PioSolver. You don't need to be great with it, but you do need to have a basic sense of how to use it.

We will communicate over e-mail. I've found it to be a better way to organize thoughts for both parties, and it actually benefits the student, since he's not paying for the time it takes him to express his own thoughts over a timed call session. It also gets around time-zone issues. I recommend 1 organized email a day from you. It can be as long as you want, and it basically describes your daily exploration in the direction I sent you the day before, and the new questions that have come up for you in the process. You don't have to email me every day, this training model is completely dependent on your level of ambition. The challenge is for you to leverage me through your own ambition. You're held accountable only by your initial purchase.

I have a lot of stock lesson videos from my private coaching products. If any of them are highly relevant to one of your major leaks, or your current stage of exploration in PioSolver or mental game stuff, I will upload it to you in a private dropbox folder. My goal is to come at you at all angles with relevant training, without having to hold your hand. It's a chance to explore and improve relevantly at a hyper-accelerated rate.

I'm doing this for two reasons:

1) I really enjoy coaching guys who are all-in.

2) I want guys with real ambition to be rewarded. You can very realistically leverage me for 30-50 hours of my time if you just commit yourself to the learning process, without having to worry about direction (that's my job). And I would love that for you. Genuinely.

I'm trying this with 3 spaces open for the month of October. After that I will wait-list. If you want to book for November, that's fine too.

Total Course Price: $3600 (due week 1)
Registration Deposit: $1000

I offer payment plans if I see a promising reason, so feel free to communicate with me on that.

PM me to register, and if you have any other questions just post here. I've got some other new coaching projects in the mix for later this year that I'm excited to share and try out. You guys have my continued support, and I really love this job :)

Nick

4-Star_General 8 years, 7 months ago

No offense, but I really just don't get it. You are pushing your products as hell, and I understand since now you have a business. I like your posts in general, very insightful, and that's why it's even difficult to grasp why you are give away coaching instead of sitting at HS. In another post I asked whether you are playing anymore and you replied with a yes, so another question. If you are putting enough volume, are you sure the EV you are given away with coaching is compensating the EV loss at the tables?

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

@ 4-star

The assumption there is that my happiness EV is primarily based on money. I also think the formula to business success is really simple: give more than you take. That only becomes a burden when you're not inspired by your job to begin with.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

Direct honesty is always the most accurate. Most people avoid it because they havent felt the safety of speaking their truth. In the week before pokerdetox.com launched, my site developer ran into a few unexpected glitches that ended up delaying the launch by over a week. Since I had rescheduled my reddit AMA once already to make sure the site would be active for it, I told him that there was a new mandatory deadline. His response was this:

"I'm doing my best."

Anyone worth associating with will understand that sentence on a deep level, and regardless of the difficulty or frustration created by the circumstance, there will be respect and an increase in empathy. If they don't understand, that's on them. It reflects their inability to handle problems intelligently. Your character is defined most by these spots. Don't make excuses, don't sugar coat it with shaky optimism, just take full responsibility without judgement. Doing that puts you back in control of the quality of your thoughts and actions, which is most efficient track to reach your desired outcome.

October coaching slots are full, November is still open. Respect!

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

A sutra is an eastern word that can loosely be translated as "life manual". You can use it as a fun way to create relevance where there seemingly is none.

I took a ferry to one of the islands off of PDC and paid for a scooter when I got there. The guy walked me to a garage full of bikes, turned one on, and gave me instructions in broken English with the motor running. When he was done he leaned the bike at me and I caught it on the front right handle. The bike jumped forward, and in my confusion I started to run with it before I realized what was going on: the front right handle was the gas. Later on I was in the ocean playing with the sutra in my head:

the very thing that makes the most sense to hold on to is actually the one thing that
needs to be released

Humbled every God damn day

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

I learn more from my students than from any other source. The amount of Pio grids and database numbers I see on any given day is more than most guys see in a month. There's a running joke that I have more Skype groups than friends in real life. My point is this: I built my ecosystem to work for me by using a model that encourages independence and authentic exploration, rather than disempowerment disguised as "research". The difference is real. I wake up to 100 pending insights every morning, instead of 100 pings of neediness.

Your network is your paperboy. Your paperboy is as valuable as the intel he's pushing. Get networked and watch the momentum of your new ecosystem work for you.

The Skype group area of my site is now completely free until November. Just register a name and create a profile. May the wind always be at your back.

4-Star_General 8 years, 7 months ago

What's your plan from November? What kind of skype groups are you organizing and what price are you going to charge?
I'm might be interested

Anyway I signed up on your site, I PM you my skype screenname so you can add me to existent chats

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

The more time you spend in an inspirational state, the better the quality of your experience (and results) will be. Audit everything in your life and find out what passionately compels you. Then pay tibute to those things by building an easy-to-access ecosystem around them. Turn songs into playlists. Make your entire schedule one big game. Use point systems to keep score of how hard you're pushing it in each area of your life. Do random shit just for fun. I've got a Skype group called "Fantasy Factory" for business imagination only. No idea is too ridiculous. Find safe places to be yourself, and start sharing the potential that is truly you. There is great support for those who commit to a life of inspiration.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

Neglecting the mental game is like going to the gym and then binge eating. As a coach I see different availabilities to mental game improvement. Certain guys are willing to look deeper than others to find out what really controls the quality of their decisions on and off the table. Ultimately, your journey is headed to the core. To me it's always seemed logical to face it head on, so you can start living a life of increased freedom and clarity.

My new pack "Poker Detox Mental Game" (PDMG) will be released in late October. It will be roughly 4 hours of densely edited footage, priced at around $600 depending on the final length. I fully expect it to be the most transformative mental game coaching on the market.

On October 1st I'm going to start streaming on Twitch. We will be mixing it up in the pokerstars zoom games, talking strategy, and giving away a bunch of free stuff in the spirit of PDMG.

I'll release a full syllabus in early October. I hope this pack will let you guys close out 2016 on a high note and head into 2017 with serious mental momentum!

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

By the time you turn 20 your paradigm is pretty much on autopilot. It's also your first shot at independence. The irony is, very few of your choices at that stage are actually your own. You're basically just the sum of your conditionings. My 20s were about failing in application. I was eventually forced to admit that I didn't actually know how to get what I wanted. Then I was forced to admit that what I thought I wanted actually had no real value. Those are hard blows.

To the young guys: your results will come primarily from your willingness to surrender your insistence, not from your work ethic. That being said, your work ethic will accelerate your journey in a way that can allow you to conclude that there is very little value to be gained from "dumb hustle". Work hard in a certain direction for long enough to expose that something is most likely wrong with your approach. Then allow yourself to see the logic in trying a new way, before any proof exists. Skip levels when you sense the opportunity.

You will almost inevitably amass guilt through failure. Be humble and intelligent enough to make peace with your tendency toward self judgement. Your evolution is largely dependent on the rate at which you can shift from guilt to forgiveness. You will never be able to clean your slate, but you can purify it. The ability to transmute pain into love is the mark of the alchemist. All they ever taught us was how to dig for gold. Your 20s, when done right, can teach you how to make your own. The future runs on internal currency.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

@Thebing

Yea, I'm going to be in Prague for it, and I'll be streaming 3 to 4 times a week in 2.5 hour slots. I'll post a schedule closer to October.

Nick Howard 8 years, 7 months ago

A lot of guys are spending too much time in areas where the returns are too marginal. Look at your time as a factor in your winrate. If you spend 10 hours studying for a .01 bb/100 winrate improvement, that's a problem two ways: one because you barely accomplished anything, two because thats 10 hours you couldve spent playing, earning. It's not uncommon for guys to actually lose winrate from working with solvers. Either from misapplication or straight up burnout.

Relevant learning patterns maximize the efficiency of winrate gains. Prioritization is the first key to establishing direction. Here are two of the most relevant formations to study if you're trying to move up the ranks:

BTN v BB srp
SB v BB srp

Frequency of occurrence combined with wider than usual starting ranges make these formations hot spots for quick winrate improvements.

Stay simple, stay relevant, and keep stepping!

SoZick 8 years, 7 months ago

I do enjoy reading this thread. Find something's insightful and its always interesting hearing/reading about personal evolution and what new paths open up to you because of this. Im curious, do you just sit down at your computer when you feel in the right frame of mind (Present, insightful almost spiritual thinking) when making a post or do you feel pressured to make a new posts and work hard drafting out copies and copies to get the wording and tone right?

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

@Sozick

When I write I'm usually trying to get something across in a "no bullshit" type way. Basically because I think we all bullshit ourselves enough already. I try to make it an expression of distilled thought. That's why my writing voice is usually choppy and grammatically incorrect. I'm just going for simple sentences that feel like they carry a low enough bias to pack a punch. My average entry probably takes 5-10 minutes from the moment I get an idea. There's nothing pretty about it unless I get lucky with the wordplay. Then again I think directness is often pretty because it has a tendency to be more real.

Sigmund-Freud 8 years, 6 months ago

Conveying a thought, an idea or a concept, as though it seems simple and easily understood is what takes skill and is the hallmark of mastery imo

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

Recently I was in a situation where the air conditioning broke in my apartment rental in Cancun. If you haven't been to Cancun, the humidity is unbearable and you need air. Long story short the host was was unresponsive most of the day and finally assured us someone would arrive at 9pm. I agreed to wait but made it clear I would need a hotel for the night if the air could not be fixed.

Some brief context:
I'm staying 1 block off the main tourist street paying $2200/month for a premium unit. I dont have a car.

By 1030pm no one had shown up, and no one had texted. I walked down the main street with my girlfriend and dog and booked a room at the only nice hotel I knew of in the area (I don't know the area). It cost $267.

It's 2 weeks later and I'm checking out in 3 days time. The host replies to the copy of the hotel bill I sent and tells me that they will only be refunding $70, since that is the breakdown of what my unit is worth nightly.

It's a poor metric for a refund amount in the first place, because there are no nice hotels in the area for anywhere near that price. But here's the bigger point that only really made sense to me once I started a business:

When dealing with people, the idea that the net (implied) EV of a situation directly correlates to the immediate $EV of the situation is foolish.

If you're running a good business you should be fucking up rarely enough that you can use those opportunites to define the integrity of your company. You do that by going completely out of your way to satisfy the customer regardless of the $ amount. You're not just doing this for the customer, you're doing it for your bottom line. It just takes more trust and vision than most business people are comfortable with to see how that equation works.

Check out this short 3 minute clip that will make what I'm saying more clear and give you happy goosebumps if you have a pulse:
Pure Gold

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

A recent mass database study of Pokerstars 200nl showed a number of major statistical leaks in the pool since summer of 2016. When compared to analysis done 18 months prior, those numbers were almost exactly the same.

The games aren't getting tougher. It's just the most popular excuse.

Quido 8 years, 6 months ago

I also think games were mostly getting tougher pre black Friday. Of course games are getting a bit tougher even now but it is not as much anymore.

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

Someone sent me this, it's a recent post that someone made in the official Piosolver Skype group, population 600 last time I checked.

..."but more to the point: you aren't ever going to learn a thing
about poker if you're too lazy to study multiple bet sizes. the number
one thing in poker is that you must believe in your own ability. if
you believe you will win less by using multiple bet sizes, it means
your opponents are somehow exploiting you more when more bet sizes are
available to you. It's not logical."

This group is one that I exited from my network a long time ago, mainly because of all the bullshit artists. Multiple bet sizings are a perfect way to convince yourself that you're doing more for your game than you actually are. I'm not saying they don't have value, I'm saying they have very little value until you're already very, very good. Guys that try to commit to the nosebleed path head on are usually the most deluded. Way too much of their time is spent discussing ideas and defending to other people why "their way" is worth exploring, or more valid. Meanwhile these guys are usually struggling to beat MSNL. If your way is so great, then just explore it yourself and shut the fuck up until you arrive somewhere. It's like the person that reads the new-age self development book and starts telling all their friends that they have to read it too, so that they can feel better about their insecurities now that other people agree with their new ideas. And then they never do shit. They just talk about it, instead of implementing and coming to their own conclusions. Lecturing others is a great way to avoid your core fear of failure by hiding behind your thoughts instead of actually owning up to them through action. I've made all these mistakes.

Funny thing about believing in your own ability is that it's only half the pill. You're required to balance that belief with an honest assessment of your current level of ability, so you can pick the most streamline path for your growth. There's never been a "right way". There's only ever been the constant invitation to explore your way, so that you can come to a personal decision as to whether or not that way works for YOU. I preach relevance because it contains every way. From there, the "right way" ends up being whatever way the person sees most benefit in. For the community, I'm confident that simplifying would be one of the most incentivized shifts. But even if that's true for you, it still may not be of highest relevance for you, especially if you don't believe it. My point is that no one is asking you to take anything on faith. Especially not me. It was extremely valuable for me to find out that I actually couldn't make it work in the way that I was so set on. The GTO way, the multiple bet-size way, the overwhelming, over-analytical way. There was infinite value in actually proving myself wrong through application, instead of continuing to theorize and defend something I was too afraid to actually commit to.

You guys don't know the version of me that turned away from all outside noise and worked myself to total failure. I don't talk about it because it's not worth much in itself. But I failed completely. Not "almost" or "kind of". I made the final decision to take it all the way with my set of tools and theories, and to disconnect from anyone who would rather keep talking instead of doing. I couldn't live with my own bullshit anymore. I worked until I literally had no energy left to justify the lack of progress I had made. All I managed to piece together was the illusion of growth. I absolutely hated myself and my deep-rooted sense of unworthiness that somehow was driving the entire futile quest. Coming face to face with my arrogance was what was necessary for me to become be cracked open to the natural intelligence contained in humility. It was what it took for me to become available to real change. I wish it upon no one, but there are many like me who I think would benefit from it, just from the communal vibe.

So on that note, the only problem I have with the approach of anyone who's struggling is that they're not willing to take it all the way. They just stay in the comfort zone of the application process, doing more talking (or typing) than anything else. My advice is to quit fucking around. if you're going to be stubborn enough to defend a process that hasn't produced the results you want yet, you can at least have the decency to prove it to yourself. Prove yourself right, or prove yourself wrong, it makes no difference. Just prove something from your own direct experience, so you can stop speaking from fear and telling everyone that it's logic. Until you do that, you should speak very little, unless it's to ask questions. Stop wasting everyone's time by trying to manipulate them into agreeing with you. It's disgusting and cowardly. More mistakes that I've personally made. You can trust me when I tell you it's a futile way, or find out for yourself. Just go do one of those and finish it.

You guys have asked me how I got this way, or where my perspectives come from. What I shared in this post is the heart of it. All I ever do is speak from a conviction that knows true failure. And from there, I have a high sensitivity to what ideas contain potential, and what ideas are largely redundant and pointless. I can also sense pretty quickly who's gone through a similar process, and who's dancing around the fire like a pussy, trying to convince the rest of the world that they're worth listening to. We're well into the age of poker where tools and databases are at a level that can produce the black and white data necessary to get you the win rate that you've always talked about getting. I can assure you it doesn't require you to juggle 2 different bet sizes, it just requires you to put in work. The difference is always rooted in action.

SoZick 8 years, 6 months ago

I see the relevance for simplifying your strategy as much as possible in 100+BB games as the more sizes you have makes the balancing act so much harder. You explain it very well also sauce has done a vid on this subject a few months ago that might of been inspired by this thread that was very good also. It also makes sense to me to have a simplified strategy pre flop with 10bbs (shove or fold). The question im asking though is do you think this 1 size fits all can be applied at any stack depth, in 20bb cap games and Mtts ( Effective stack 15-30bbs) Pre flop you would have some, Raise calls/Raise folds and Jams. Two bet size strategy. I might be missing the point here but im interested in your reply.

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

SoZick

I think it's pretty easy to take simplified strategies too far. There are ways you can go about intelligently reducing strategic options, and the main benefit is that you gain more control over your range. That being said, high level simplification is not predicated on "one size fits all", it just attempts to collapse a mixed strategy into pure strategy whenever possible, and it does that by clarifying incentive. A decision point can be simplified by introducing MORE data points into the analysis (it's counter-intuitive). The more fluently you understand the imbalances of the environment you're in, the more consistently and covertly you can exploit it. Using Piosolver preflop subsets alongside large sample database analysis from a specific pool is (imo) the key to training relevantly. 100 hours of work in that direction would slingshot you to the front of the curve.

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

The #1 reason guys don't commit:
Afraid to fail.

The #2 reason:
Afraid to succeed.

Beyond all the seeming randomness, a large sample of choices brought you to where you are today. Don't play the victim card, it has never served your dream.

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

Got to Prague yesterday, just did a Twitch test run at my new place and it's too slow to stream, gonna buy an upgrade at a T-mobile tomorrow. Can't wait until free energy gets leaked by the govs so we can all have high speed. Sorry guys!

JohnyC1337 8 years, 6 months ago

Hiho I am from Czech Republic so do we start today at 7pm? Will there be a record of the stream? I mean in past broadcast section. How long are you gonna stay in Prague?

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

Twitch was fun while it lasted tonight, had a lot of lag issues but did some QnA with the guys that stayed to hang out. Hopefully the stream will be firing on all cylinders on wednesday. Anyway, I wrote the entry below after staying up all night reflecting on the beauty of the struggle. Really looking forward to what's ahead :). Here goes:

My whole life was a search for proof. Proof that I was either doing the right thing, or that I was about to try the right thing (if I ever had the balls to do it). Maybe "right" is the wrong word. Let's say I was just looking for something better, or something more accurate. I think that's natural. I think that's healthy. We're alive and we desire to grow.

But what I really wanted was the feeling. The feeling of infinite safety and excitement at the same time. And I wanted to be able to trust that the feeling was real, and to know that it was safe to trust it. I wanted to be intelligent with an unchallengable resolve. Those were my ideals. But it was really all for the feeling.

If you're looking for the feeling, here's the fast track: Proof will not unlock it. You will never prove it. Not in any way that counts. For as long as you need proof, you will never get the feeling, and you will never get the feeling for as long as you need proof. Now you're getting acquainted with the dizziness of futility.

Assuming you've understood that, here's the code to the next door:

Proof is unnecessary to unlock the feeling. Of course, it's so simple. But simple is not easy. Because the feeling doesn't lie. It demands the truth. It has intricate balance points just like any other skill game. Except this is the game of perception. The art of perception. The heart of perception. The war with yourself. All for the feeling. You're almost home now.

All you actually want is to trust yourself. Because that unlocks the feeling. It's set up like that because trust is inherently good. That's why you want it so bad. You want to know that you are good beyond all doubt. Incorruptable. Pure. Authentic. Somewhere along the way you lost that. Or you thought you did, it's all the same.

Only you can give yourself this gift. The implication of self forgiveness is profoundly underrated. Probably because it doesn't make much sense. But it does unlock the feeling, and that does make sense -- because it's what you actually want. Or maybe you're not like me. Maybe I'm wrong about you. Maybe one person will hear me, maybe that's enough. All of life we wait for our own permission. Untie the knot and claim your freedom. Brother.

davidnso 8 years, 6 months ago

Would this be synonymous with being more selfish? Not in a bad way, but to benefit your well-being.

I find myself trying to please others all the time, leaving less time to invest in myself. I don't care if I don't get anything in return, but it feels especially pointless when things work against you in spite of those efforts to make everyone else happy.

Relating to the post, imo the barrier to unlocking my feeling.

Gandalf 8 years, 6 months ago

Here is at least one person who is very much struggling with this exact, exact point. I hear you loud and clear. Thanks for this great way of expression.

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

"If I had more time, I would've written you a shorter letter".

-Mark Twain

Simplification takes skill. Getting Twitch started a little early today, will record it for everyone who misses.

Recording

edit: link should be fixed now

SeacombePLO 8 years, 6 months ago

Really enjoying the stream replay, haven't played a hand of NL in about a year so have no idea what's going on but love the way you break down hands and explain your thought process, feel like I'm picking up a lot from it even though I play PLO

Also that link to the replay doesn't work for me, I think you've linked your manager of the account link to it so we can't see the vid from it :) just letting you know

screamdustry 8 years, 6 months ago

Great session Nick. Glad you've overcame your technical problems. The stream was way better than i expected and i expected a lot at first place.

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

When you truly see there is no benefit in emotionally tilting, you will not do it. Learn to see the value in facing yourself directly. That starts with high quality questions:

"How do I somehow believe that getting pissed off is improving my situation?"

"Why do I continue to force sessions from an emotionally imbalanced state, when I could just postpone them?"

More on this today @ my Twitch, 1pm EST here

Adam 8 years, 6 months ago

Loving the stream man! Are you going to continue to record them? My schedule makes it really difficult to ever catch them live.

Also, would you ever consider coaching live 5/10nl+ players who have an extensive online back round already? Using your approach of population trends for the live pool, and coming up with best exploits and adjustments to more multi way pots, much deeper stacks, more passivity, etc etc..

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

Adam

Thanks. I'm going to continue recording all of them. I've had good results coaching live 5/10 guys by just having them study pools like Bovada 5/10 Full Ring. The environments are similar enough for the mass database analyses to translate well. Right now the only private coaching I'm offering is the Unlimited monthly and I'm booked there until 2017. I'll add you to the wait list and let you know if anything opens up.

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

Today on Twitch I'll be talking about the most common inefficiencies in the modeling process. Come ask questions and save yourself some precious time. 1pm-3pm EST
Stream

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

Saw this today and loved it:

When you encounter some scary obstacle in your life just close your
eyes and pretend you’re an 80 year old man who regrets not tackling
all the obstacles he wanted to in life. Then when you feel like that
old man, say to yourself, “I wish I was young again”, then open your
eyes…

And BOOM!

You’re young again

#NoRegrets

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

On Twitch shortly, talking today about the power of making yourself accountable to other people in order to leverage your career growth. I might even show a graph at the end!
Stream

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

Todays Twitch title is "Practitioner to the Bone". It's time to trade all your planning and prophesizing for real DOING. Come get your hands dirty with us. Starts in 10 minutes here

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

The P.O.V. of others is the single biggest thing that holds us back from our potential. Know that when people doubt you, they actually doubt themselves. Projecting doubt onto you is easier than facing it in themselves. If everyone actually understood this, we could all stop jocking for position in the eyes of others. And we could stop feeling paralyzed by the pressure of outside judgement. It doesn't make sense to define yourself through someone else's insecurity. It started in them, not you. But if you take it on it becomes yours.

When you fully forgive yourself for your insecurities by facing them directly, you naturally begin to give others the benefit of the doubt. You do that because it's simply what's required to maintain your new balance. From that point, you will never go back into judgement and projection for very long, because you'll see how it obstacles YOU from YOUR dreams. You will have deep compassion for those who still judge and doubt, because you will know their suffering as your own. What they do to themselves, they do from confusion and darkness. Be the light.

Nick Howard 8 years, 6 months ago

steevelove

You'll receive an invite through your email, my team has to add people manually to this course because it's accessed through Dropbox.com. Usually it doesnt take more than 12 hours from the time of purchase.

The mental game pack I'll be releasing at the end of this month will be imbedded into pokerdetox.com, and will allow access immediately after purchase.

Thanks and sorry for the confusion!

straightfloosh 8 years, 6 months ago

Kevin was a cool guest, seems like everyone viewing has really enjoyed the streams so far. Have you enjoyed streaming / do you plan on growing the stream to help promote your coaching packages? Seems like all the big poker streamers have facebook pages, snapchat, twitter, etc. etc. Maybe the Staples/Martin stream house can exchange stream coaching for advanced PIO coaching lolololol.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

If GTO strategies were thoroughly incentivized, poker would be a dead industry. It's important to understand this in order to direct your attention toward higher relevance. The games remain highly imbalanced. The goal of today's learner should be to maximize the amount of actions that can be simplified. That means going from mixed to pure. That means going exploitative.

In any hand, there are extra data points available for anyone who chooses to shift their vision from the defensive GTO mode, to the offensive exploitative mode. Learning to detect those data points in a way that's empirically driven and least assumptive is a training process. My new mental game pack (PDMG) is dedicated to 3 things:

-Training you to detect subtler data points in a hand, so you can explode out of the GTO trap and into a more accurate thought process

-Showing you how to expose contradictory thought processes and unconscious assumptive patterns.

-Clarifying your purpose as a grinder so you can find more fulfillment in poker as a career.

We follow 6 different players ranging from small to high stakes, and work with real mental leaks from real hands. Thanks to all the guys who submitted footage. I'm really humbled by this pack and I truly believe this type of training to be the future of the coaching industry.

I'll post a more detailed syllabus sometime next week, after I finish the final edits. I'm making this pack more affordable in an effort to reach more guys. Somewhere between $600-$800 depending on the final length.

Thanks for everyone's continued support of my coaching, it allows me the freedom to make these products. You guys are constantly refining my direction and I'm grateful.

Poker Detox Mental Game. Oct 30

FROMNOW 8 years, 5 months ago

"The greatest fear in the world is of the opinions of others, and the moment you are unafraid of the crowd, you are no longer a sheep, you become a lion.
A great roar arises in your heart, the roar of freedom."

~Osho

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

You can't just copy shit and expect it to work. Every little thing that works is working within a greater context. Now, the efficiency of your context depends on 2 things:

-Your understanding of what is holding an equilibrium together in a model. Without it, you are severely limited in your ability to identify a proper exploit.

-Your vision over the environmental trends and imbalances across major lines.

Understanding the environment + equilibriums. It's both. Because that's what it takes to include all the data points. That's what it takes to optimize your decisions. Most guys are focusing on one side of the coin. With the database tools we have, winning exploitative play is no longer a feel game. It's black and white science.

New RIO vid coming soon, 500z live-play, watch me do this in real time, it's completely within your reach.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

The sicko-aura you place around the best players at your limit is a direct reflection of your tendency to victimize yourself. Here's the most likely truth: they run you over because you let them.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

The only way to stay accurately focused on the goal is to completely deregister the idea that something could stop you. That doesn't mean you become naive, it just means you respond to challenge in the most intelligent way. One of the biggest obstacles to success is the belief that it's reckless to stop stressing.

Generate a massive vision, and live in single-pointed alignment with the energy of that imagined reality. It's safe.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Today on the stream I'm talking about the power of diversification. If it's not already at the top of your list, you're missing out on the simplest way to leverage your career into greater freedom and abundance. Work smart AND hard.
Starts now

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

The problem with theory is that it destroys vision. Or maybe it just has that effect because most guys use it as a shield for deeper insecurities. Either way, the trap is subtle. It starts off with an increase in vision, by strengthening your understanding of equilibria. You feel smarter and safer. But if that's not eventually rebalanced with an increase in vision over your environment, you're tunneling off into heavy distortion. You end up training yourself to dismiss real incentives.

There are two types of vision: theoretical and environmental. You are as intelligent as your ability to balance both.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Whether or not you're afraid means absolutely nothing. I'm afraid every day. But that's because I make the conscious decision to play at my thresholds. The only thing that matters is whether or not your fear stops you from acting in a way that maps to your goal. It takes more courage to act in spite of fear than to be fearless.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Last stream of October was a fun one, thanks to everyone who contributed this month, I appreciate you guys and I'm excited to become a totally free 1-on-1 coaching channel come November. Last night's stream was the first of many with this new model, check the recording out here.

KidAle 8 years, 5 months ago

Hello Nick,
in the last stream , talking about br management, you said that if you think you belong to the next limit, you could you use a 3 buyins strategy".
Do you mean leveldown right after your winrate is -3 bi? Otherwise just keep testing the limit?
Also when u will consider give yourself another try if your bankroll is good enough but you just lack of self-confidence? Would you wait like an xy amount of hands with a good winrate in your previous limit or its more just a feeling that can push you into it?
It made me curious because its an interesting approach that i never tried.
Thanks,
your biggest fan <3

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Hey,

With regard to the shot taking thing, I meant that you can take 3 buyin shots at the next limit, then if you lose, go back to your base limit and make 6 buyins, rinse and repeat. I like that model if you really believe you should have winrate at the higher limit.
The thing about lacking confidence is that it usually reflects a lack in technical proficiency. If you really know that what you're doing is relatively accurate, you're naturally more confident. So I would not take shots without confidence, because it's a good indicator that you need to improve the parts of your game that make you insecure before moving up.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

You dont even need to have your shit together to be an awesome person. You just have to cross a maturity threshold where you decide to stop projecting your shit onto other people. No one cares that you're not perfect. They care about the stress you cause them by not taking full responsibility for yourself.

Samu Patronen 8 years, 5 months ago

And once you stop projecting your shit onto other people, their response to you will be warm and welcome and that'll help you tremendously to actually fix your shit. :D

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

New PDMG mental game pack will be up on my site Nov 1. Will post a full syllabus and sample videos within 48 hours. Thanks to all the guys who submitted footage, the format is awesome and you made it possible.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Poker Detox Mental Game pack is now available. Buyers will gain eligibility to book private coaching when I reopen in early 2017. A two hour private Crowdcast Q&A is also included. I genuinely appreciate every one of you guys.

For more details and sample videos, hit the link below:
PDMG Pack

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

@Omahyo

my 1-on-1 rate will be $350/hr when I reopen in Jan 2017.

gmiko

Twitch stream will restart Nov 7. Schedule will be Mon-Wed-Fri 1pm-230pm EST.

I'm in the process of uploading all of the October streams to Youtube. November streams will be available on Twitch for 2 weeks and on YouTube after.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

I like type of e-mail I get from the student I haven't heard from in like 6 months, where he confirms he hasn't just been sitting on his ass, he's been crushing. Props to the guys who IMPLEMENT.

This student bought the Pio Unlocked Course when it came out back in Spring, and then he disappeared off my radar shortly after: Here are the before/after graphs he sent me yesterday when we reconnected:


2bb/100 2015, +$20,000 USD

15bb/100 2016 After Coaching +$200,000 USD

Hats off to you bro.

If you haven't checked out the free sample videos of my new mental game paick, hit the link below:
Poker Detox Mental Game

Baraky 8 years, 5 months ago

Dude, this is the most insane graph I have ever seen. And he's actually losing @ showdown, so he's probably forcing the aggression to the limit. Wtf.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Yea I was shocked too. I don't train for that high of a red line, but some students push the aggression to the limit in the softer environments and end up with that type of graph. Normally my guys end up with break-even to slightly + redline on the majority of sites.

Baraky 8 years, 5 months ago

I think the anonymous environment + small sessions is the only way to build it, otherwise MES against him would be easy to implement. He's definitely playing a massive check-raise blueprint strat and probably some multi-street oop barrel (otherwise how would it even be possible to have so many redline situations?). This guy has took the analysis to it's limit. Props to him.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

@ Saulo

I think the Pio Unlocked did a lot of this, but at this point it's pretty built into my style of training. The new mental game pack teaches how to expand the awareness to find more data-points in any one hand, which leads to more refined exploits. The Night Vision database analysis pack that I'll release in early 2017 is going to be the data-driven end of this. It will show the black and white numbers behind a lot of the most incentivized red-line exploits, so you guys can have the tools to run the numbers for your specific environments and generate your own exploitative blueprints.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

I'm starting back up on Twitch Nov 7. My schedule will be split into 2 main formats:

Mondays and Fridays: Volunteer Hand History Lessons.

Completely free private lesson streams. I've got a wait-list of guys from the October stream audience who have each sent me 20,000 of their recent hands. They will be joining us in a live lesson format with no stream delay. I debuted this format on the last stream of October and it was really well received. Everyone has the opportunity to share their thought process in real time. I love my stream audience, it's full of guys who show up to talk real strategy and ask honest questions.

If you want to be a guest on the stream, send me an email at nick@pokerdetox.com and attach 20,000 hands. I'll do my best to get you a slot.

Wednesdays: "Forum Crawl". A new twitch weekly series I'm starting, designated completely to the trolling the RIO forums in a healthy, productive way. I'll answer as many posts as I can in 90 minutes, and I'll speak frankly about the questions and comments that I think are a complete waste of time.
My goal is to redefine trolling. You guys know me by now. I'm interested in relentlessly exposing bias, and I don't care whose feelings get hurt. Wednesdays are going to be my hard love streams. I feel comfortable taking on the role as the community "whistle blower", because I know that my intention is pure, and someone really needs to step up to the plate. There's too much bullshit running rampant. I'd ask you to trust that everything I say comes from the utmost empathy with the struggle. I've embarrassed myself in the RIO forums many times in the past with arrogance and ignorance, and I will again. No one is perfect, and that's ok. I speak to you as a brother who forgives completely. All I care about is truth, expansion, freedom. All good things.

Stream time always 1pm - 230pm EST

FriendlyCritter 8 years, 5 months ago

Hey. Took a quick look through the "Lesson 1" on Twitch and I really liked it thus far! Will definitely watch through it and soak up whatever I can. (Doing some other analysis at the moment).

Suggestion: Please make it so that we can hear the student also! It would be much more rewarding to hear the whole exchange, and at times I'm sure some of the context is lost due to not hearing what the student is saying.

Thanks for the content!

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

If you look at something from a narrow point of view, you will find plenty of data to confirm that the position you're looking from is accurate. And you will remain bias, because you lack vision. This is how reality works. The observer will constantly find a way to reinforce his initial bias.

Game theory, believe it or not, is a narrow scope. Let's start by remembering why we felt drawn to it to begin with:

-We lacked vision over our environments
-The idea of an inexploitable strategy appealed to our insecurities.

Theory was the perfect remedy for how we interpreted our dilemma. And it did give us value. It brought more balance to us as a community, from 2013 to 2015.

But now it's almost 2017. We have new tools that offer a MASSIVE increase in vision over the imbalances of the player pools. Yet because of our residual theory obsession, our scope remains limited, skeptical, and dismissive of these tools. We remain collectively guarded by the ideology of how accurate well balanced strategies are.

If you want to understand the essence of progress, you need to understand what drives evolution. Evolution occurs when a species expands its vision to more inclusive, more relevant data points within an environment, thus becoming more efficient. The key word there is "environment". The GTO paradigm barely even sees the environment. It's stuck in it's shell, perfecting it's own strategy, wildly assumptive about how accurately it can even implement it, or how incentivized that type of strategy actually is.

We are crossing a threshold in the evolution of the industry where if you continue to cling to an overly theory-oriented paradigm, you will find yourself gravitating to others who stagnate in their own biases, and you will not evolve. You will be classified as unintelligent. I'm saying it like this because I want it to register within your value system. The only reason you felt like GTO was worth as much effort as you gave it was because you thought it would make you smarter, and help you evolve. It's time to humbly reassess whether or not that incentive is still in place.

At present, the value of game theory for the majority of the elite community is either saturated or distorted past the point of correction. There is no use in trying to fix the problem. There is however a great incentive to replace it with a solution. Please realize that engaging with a problem is completely different than moving toward a solution. For evidence, just look at how we have attempted to solve the GTO paradox by applying more theory to it. The effort is futile. Assessment can only lead to more assessment. It's energetic law.

The evolution of the industry depends on the community introducing more data points into the decision making process than we have validated thus far. Accessing more refined data points leads to more accurate decisions. This is done by increasing vision over the environment. Simple evolution. It's time we learn to think independently again, and exit the defensive theory slumber. Step out of the cave. It's smarter, it's safer, it's why you came here in the first place. The future is played on the offense.

Much love to all the hard and fast ultra-defensive theory boys. If this triggers you, then I'll know I said it right.

AggroShooter 8 years, 5 months ago

At present, the value of game theory for the majority of the elite community is either saturated or distorted past the point of correction

So are you saying all the HS players are using solver in a wrong way?

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

@Aggroshooter

I should clarify that when I refer to the elite community, I'm referring to RIO elite. which is probably 90% non-HSNL.

That said I still see a lot of HSNL guys pointed In the wrong direction, because they're using solvers without balancing it with mass environmental data. If you're ignoring environmental data you're handicapping yourself right from the jump.

AggroShooter 8 years, 5 months ago

Ty a lot Nick. Also, your Forum Crawl was actually very very good...
What I liked the most is when you talked about being humble. On RIO, forum enviroment is somewhat healthy even if some arrogance could be seen. What I don't understand, and I never will, is why people who play micros, post on thread with arrogance. If you are playing micros there's a reason imo, nothing to be shamed of ofc, we are all here to learn, but sometimes peoples are too arrogant only because they studied a bit more on average and think they are heros. Again very very nice video, keep it up :)

PS I used to be arrogant and I liked flame other players, well right now I see how an ass I was not only with the others but also with myself. I mean, constantly flaming took a toll on my soul, I felt always angry and this isn't healthy

DirtyD 8 years, 5 months ago

The information being given away for free on this stream is insane right now. Get it while the getting's good, guys.

TimDog 8 years, 5 months ago

True! The quality of his thought process in this these handreviews is excellent. Some of it is just way above my level and i need to rewatch it several times. It definitly helped me in order to get a structure for my own thoughts and the priorities that i need to set. Thanks for the great work on RIO and pokerdetox!

Def looking forward purchasing your latest package. I dont think i have ever seen a better qualification / recommendation as a coach than your blogs and videos.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

I got pissed off on the stream the other day, here's what I said:

The Problem With The Coaching Industry

I have a zero tolerance policy for manipulation of any kind. Please send this to at least one person in your circle so we can raise the bar on what we tolerate from coaches and backers as we head into 2017. You guys deserve more from the private sector of the industry.

I'm reopening 1-on-1 coaching full time in January. For those of you who have been waiting to work with me, it's time. Hit the link below for more details on how to get a slot in January:

PDMG eligibility for 2017 private coaching.

Mad love.

IamIndifferent 8 years, 5 months ago

Nick
More on checking OOP.

Point 1. Many times you say that the solvers stab only 20 to 30 percent after PFR OOP check and then claim that population pools are stabbing too much in these spots (~50 percent). And that by checking IP excess stabbing can be exploited.

But the stab percent is only made indifferent by the OOP defending range, especially the XR range and if the OOP player poorly constructs these ranges he has induced the IP player to stab more ie make the correct adjustment to the poor XR range construction.

I ran some quick Pio sims BvB on Q75r and pure max exploit to equilibrium, yes, the BB flop stab was only 26% but, by simply nodelocking the XR range by stepwise iteration deleting the solver artefacts (cells with frequencies less than practically playable amounts) the max exploit stab jumps to 39% (with cells less than 10% deleted), then to 56% (with cells less than 20%). (The cells deleted from XR are shifted by the solver to either call or fold).

So by reducing the XR range by only 9 combos (out of 64), IP stab max exploited from 26% to 56%, about the population norm. So is the population really overstabbing given the likely poor construction of XR range in the pools?

(By nodelocking IP to underdefend the XR the max exploit stabbing was still over 50%).

(I did not yet try a pure XR strat where each cell is wholly either XR or XC but not mixed in both but I expect it will cause the IP stab max exploit to jump way over 50%).

Point 2. Doesn't checking merely push the mixed strat over the immediate decision horizon, delaying the inevitable mixed strat to XR or to turn decisions?

Checking eliminates the flop CBet range construction decision but the XR needs to be a mixed strat or else the max exploit IP stab will be incentivised to be quite high. It's pretty easy to stuff up the XR range so IP max exploit becomes as high as 90%. It is very sensitive to XR strat.

This seems to take the range construction pressure that was on our flop Cbetting range and move it to the XR range, albeit with more information because we get to see if the BB checks or bets.

While we have eliminated one range, the flop Cbetting range but the XR and XC range absorb the complexity, becoming a greater proportion of the total lines and needing to be better constructed.

IamIndifferent 8 years, 5 months ago

Pio sims of Q75r nodelocking a rounded OOP strat. If I round to 1/1 to create a recommended pure strat then XR drops to 43 combos from 61.5 and max exploit IP Flop stab rises to near 80%.

On the other hand, rounding to 1/2, XR only drops 2.5 combos, and IP Flop stab only rises to 37% so a rounding 1/2 strategy seems both more practical than full pio complexity but without sacrificing the ease of playability of pure strat. Rounding 1/2 only cost 0.2BB/100 EV. Rounding pure 2.5BB/100. WDYT?

ZenFish 8 years, 5 months ago

Interesting points and analysis. I'm trying out the check range OOP strategy atm and it works out well. As in, I feel more in control OOP in single raised pots, and tend to end up with an appropriate amount of bets going in for the type of hand that I have.

I have no clear understanding of whether I'm doing something theoretically better or not, it's more a feeling of playing a simple robust strategy that works well and gives a sense of good control over the hand.

Your point about postponing complexity to a future decision is valid, but we need to play our checking range properly anyway, whether we bet or not. By removing the betting branch we at least have only one branch to handle, and that should mean less complexity overall, right? And for most of us, that should mean we mess up less.

Would be interested in more discussion about this strategy and some comments from Nick.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

@iamIndifferent

Hey, cool points. I'm just going to go in order:

Point 1:

...But the stab percent is only made indifferent by the OOP defending
range,

This sounds wrong if you're referring to a situation where IP is stabbing too much vs an OOP PFR who checks his entire range. OOP's range will be stronger than it would be had he played a balanced c-bet range. IP will be exploited here for stabbing too wide. Am I misunderstanding what you meant by "the stab percent"?

"So is the population really overstabbing given the likely poor
construction of XR range in the pools?"

I doubt the pool consciously understands this, but yea I think stabbing too much IP happens to be one of the best exploits you can consistently take, especially since OOP overfolds there too.

While we have eliminated one range, the flop Cbetting range but the XR
and XC range absorb the complexity, becoming a greater proportion of
the total lines and needing to be better constructed.

The balance to that paradox is to go one step further and filter the mass database for pattern recognition, looking at the types of flops that they stab-fold the most on. There's a lot of spots you could XR ATC profitably in a vaccuum. Guys usually have an aversion to this type of strategy at first b/c they think people will counter, but that's actually really assumptive for 2 reasons:

1) The correct counter doesn't appear to be that clear to the majority of the population.

2) Even if they understand it, they rationalize a more comfortable approach by deciding that they'll exploit you by just widening their turn/river calling range after defending vs your XR with the same (tight) range. If your blueprint plan is to just 1-and-done XR the flop, you're no longer forcing turn/river aggression with bluffs, so they just keep offering you +EV flop spots and never capitalizing on later streets.

Basically at some point I realized that the main way to balance the mixed strategy parodox (paradox in the sense that it's seemingly unavoidable while also being too difficult to implement) was to gain as much vision as possible over the environment, so that I could simplify the game tree while actually gaining accuracy at the same time. It's definitely the way to hack into an anonymous player pool for win-rate, which is why I was initially drawn to it for Bovada.. but my 2016 students have been proving to make it work just about everywhere.

That brings up another point. If you do it right you can just rip through your limit in like 100k hands before anyone understood what even really happened. Then move up and do it all over again. Once you get to high stakes you can just put money on every soft site that offers 10/20 and never really have to account for your shitty image. There's a whole nother level to the career once you expand your vision to include diversifying across sites, to idea being to spread your volume out with super-exploitative strategies. They're also soft a f.

Aleksandra ZenFish 8 years, 5 months ago

2) Even if they understand it, they rationalize a more comfortable
approach by deciding that they'll exploit you by just widening their
turn/river calling range after defending vs your XR with the same
(tight) range. If your blueprint plan is to just 1-and-done XR the
flop, you're no longer forcing turn/river aggression with bluffs, so
they just keep offering you +EV flop spots and never capitalising.

~ Can you please elaborate this cause I'm not sure i understood well :S :)

Samu Patronen 8 years, 5 months ago

Can you please elaborate this cause I'm not sure i understood well :S
:)

Even if people suspect that you're check/raising a lot on the flop (have a lot of bluffs in your range), it's way more comfortable from their perspective to just keep their flop strategy the same and just calldown more often given how many bluffs they perceive you to have.

Changing their flop strategy is uncomfortable to them because the population is not used to doing such a big changes to their approach (it is not common to see someone with a strategy that check/raises a lot as preflop raiser, therefore it's harder to make proper flop adjustments ingame.

Sincerely,

Samu "wannabe nick howard" Patronen

IamIndifferent 8 years, 5 months ago

This sounds wrong if you're referring to a situation where IP is stabbing too much vs an OOP PFR who checks his entire range. OOP's range will be stronger than it would be had he played a balanced c-bet range. IP will be exploited here for stabbing too wide. Am I misunderstanding what you meant by "the stab percent"?

In my Pio Sims above the OOP was forced to check entire range. BB betting 80 percent on flop is not betting too much if SB is XR too little. Entire range check does not protect, rather the XR does. As a test, if I sim the extrema with SB not allowed to XR but only allowed to XC or XF and still forced to OOP check entire range, BB's max exploit is to Bet 98% of its range, proving that the XR limits the BB flop Cbet %.

(In any Pio sim the IP betting range is limited by the OOP defensive action. Initial raise is limited by 3B's. 3B are limited by 4B's etc. Flop Bet percentage is limited by XR percentage etc).

Unsurprisingly, in BvB, even when SB checks entire original flop range, BB is still incentivised to Bet flop at a wide percentage if small blind defends that BB flop bet poorly. As I reported in my second post above if I ask Pio to round the OOP flop actions to 1/1 then the maximal exploitation by BB is to Bet flop nearly 80% because the SB defense is insufficiently aggressive to make BB's flop Bet indifferent. Here the total SB defend percentage was the same but it failed to be aggressive enough to make BB indifferent and start checking back.

Against real players who mostly construct their ranges poorly compared with solvers, it would be exploitatively "correct" for BB to stab with close to 100% versus SB check of entire range. So, in mass DB analysis that shows BB's Betting flop faced with SB range check, it is not incorrect for them to do so. Rather BB's in mass DB analysis are exploitively stabbing too little at 50ish% given that the average SB is incapable of XR (and to a lesser extent XC) close to theoretically correct percentage and theoretically correct range construction (which hands check and which hands XR and at what mixed percentage). I further assert that not mixing this percentage and instead looking for pure strat ie hand only in XR or only in XC leads to a max exploit with BB correctly Betting flop at a high percentage.

It is an incorrect approach to take action numbers from raw Pio sims and apply them in comparison to mass DB analysis unless one nodelocks the Pio sims to match mass DB tendencies and then max exploits those tendencies to elicit the proper exploitative response.

The easy way to test what I am asserting is to test the extrema. Ask Pio to prevent SB from XR (either by remove line Check,Bet,Raise or by nodelocking the XR fixed to no hands). When you max exploit the BB bet flop versus SB's entire range will be close to 80+%.

Success with SB OOP range checking is not because BB's are stabbing too much but rather because they design their ranges poorly compared with Pio's betting range.

The advice to check SB OOP entire range is arguably human correct but for different reasons than "to exploit BB high stab percentage" which is actually too low not too high. The actual reason is to exploit BB's poor range construction in this unfamiliar territory in whatever percentage they choose to Bet flop and to exploit their poor responses to that XR.

IamIndifferent 8 years, 5 months ago

That brings up another point. If you do it right you can just rip through your limit in like 100k hands before anyone understood what even really happened. Then move up and do it all over again. Once you get to high stakes you can just put money on every soft site that offers 10/20 and never really have to account for your shitty image. There's a whole nother level to the career once you expand your vision to include diversifying across sites, to idea being to spread your volume out with super-exploitative strategies. They're also soft a f.

I like this. This is similar to years ago when the standard was to 3B QQ+,AK and a few pioneers tore through the limits by light 3B'ing and it literally took years for the population to recognise what was happening and evolve an effective counter.

IamIndifferent 8 years, 5 months ago

2) Even if they understand it, they rationalize a more comfortable approach by deciding that they'll exploit you by just widening their turn/river calling range after defending vs your XR with the same (tight) range. If your blueprint plan is to just 1-and-done XR the flop, you're no longer forcing turn/river aggression with bluffs, so they just keep offering you +EV flop spots and never capitalizing on later streets.

The correct counter to a SB who is XR bluffing too much is to re-raise their bluffy range and put their arse to the blowtorch. OOP play is hard if IP abuses its position.

I'll be back with the Pio sim where I force SB to only XR and it can't XC and let's see what incentive BB now max exploits.

Ok, I'm back:
When SB is forced to check its entire range and cannot respond by XC but only by XR and then BB max exploits:

BB Cbets flop Q75r 21%, SB XR 51% (Fold 49%), BB 3B flop 42% (C 6%)

So the correct counter to a SB that checks entire range and then bluffy XR's is to somewhat tighten up BB's flop Cbet (extent dependent on SB XR range and polarise BB's flop Cbet range to match SB's folding percentage and then flop 3B the arse off the out-of-line SB.

^Garfield's bodyguard. I love this game.

IamIndifferent 8 years, 5 months ago

Note that the effect of SB XR range % on BB flop CBet % is NOT linear. A somewhat slight error in the XR percentage away from the sweet spot (or poor range design amounting to the same thing) and BB becomes incentivised to the appropriate extrema of Betting either close to 100% or betting only 20ish%.

That is why I say that the SB needs to understand the dynamics and construct a mixed range well. Anything else can be brutally punished.

But back to the real world, and, as Nick says, for the moment, BB's seem mostly oblivious to the SB OOP range check. However, if one Nick disciple plays another Nick disciple it is the disciple that understands the BB counter that will crush harder. And, in the internet age, the window for that information to become well known and limit the leak will happen rapidly.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

IamIndifferent

But back to the real world, and, as Nick says, for the moment, BB's
seem mostly oblivious to the SB OOP range check. However, if one Nick
disciple plays another Nick disciple it is the disciple that
understands the BB counter that will crush harder. And, in the
internet age, the window for that information to become well known and
limit the leak will happen rapidly.

This is the giant assumption that keeps everyone from playing the most profitable strategies. The paranoia that they will actually be countered a ton. It's just not true, and I'm speaking from practice, not theory.

What actually happens is you get countered by the best regs at the limit, and slow down vs them. In the meantime you completely stomp the bottom 80% of the pool.

I also feel like you're overcomplicating the XR thing

1) yes, when we X range, we need to XR
2) if they fold way too much vs XR, we should XR a lot. XR'ing more on the boards they over-fold most on makes sense bc it's incentivized and very practical.

This next part I'm saying it to everyone because I think it's such a necessary perspective shift, and highly exploitative strategies just won't make sense until you get this:

YOU GUYS DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW LAZY EVERYONE IS.

Like it's so, so much worse than you think.

Dddogkillah 8 years, 5 months ago

Hey Nick @ 51:30 on Mental Game
A viewer asks something allong the lines of..

I play live poker and want to implement PIO in too my studies, what is the best approach for that?

You go on to say to get a sample from a soft site like Bovada.

A few questions;

You make it seem so easy to obtain these mass database.
If I remeber right in one of your streams you said 5 million hands would be a good size for a mass database.
But for the guy that plays live and wants to implemnt these stratgies where would he go to find these databases to work with.? (specifically bovada)
Even for the online grinder that plays bovada regulary it could take hims years to get a data base that size on his own.

Do you know any places that sell hand histories from bovada?
Do you think hand histories from Carbon or Ipoker would do the trick to replicate the bovada enviorment ?
Do you ever plan on making the mass databases for diffrent enviorment avaible via poker detox?
I think it would be a great idea :D

Cheers
DK

DirtyD 8 years, 5 months ago

I am struggling this this at the moment, too. I play primarily on Bovada and the field certainly seems ripe for player pool analysis and exploits, but as you say it's tough to build up a large sample.

re: using a Bovada sample to attack live poker, I'd caution against assuming they're similar. As someone who's played a lot of live AND Bovada in the past couple years, I'd say live and online are different animals. Yes, they're both fishy, but in very different ways.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

@ Dddog and Dirty

I can't say I've found anything that models exactly like Ignition, but there's a lot of sites that model close enough in the major lines to make it worth your time to merge those hands. I don't see any reason why we shouldn't be able to improve on the limited database issue if we approach it from a win/win mentality. I'll be organizing a private Skype group for Ignition/Bodog guys in early 2017, where everyone can pool hands. It will be part of the Night Vision launch for buyers of the pack.

ZenFish 8 years, 5 months ago

Do you discuss concrete pool database analysis techniques in your coaching packs by the way? I'm very curious about the concept, and I'm sure PT4 (which is what I use) can dig up all kinds of pool information for me, but I lack a few (actually most) things to get started on this path:

  • The most relevant questions to ask
  • How to fish the answers out of the database (although that is just a technicality that the PT4 forums can help me with)
  • How to monetise this knowledge, once the numbers have been extracted

In other words, cluelessness, but I do see the big picture and the vast potential in the approach. I just don't know specifically what to look for and how to use it when I find it.

PuraVida 8 years, 5 months ago

ZenFish, I feel like I'm in a similar position. I'm not great with PT4 db analysis, haven't used PIO much, and have only worked with my own small database (50-100k hands). But that's been good enough to get an idea of general ranges different villain types play.preflop and on flop by utilizing filters and just looking at the hole cards.

So far I've only used this analysis to construct ranges in equilab to better understand how they intereact vs my range and various board run outs. I suppose the next step is to introduce PIO analysis, but I feel like I have great vision over my environment, as Nick would say, so my assumption is that at the moment my time is better invested at the tables getting in hands and realizing present EV.

DirtyD 8 years, 4 months ago

ZenFish I've been looking around the PT forums a bit, it looks like it's actually not that simple. You can create an alias that combines all players in your database, but this appears to require a string of commands in the database language and it also wipes out the individual players stats (although you can of course back those up). As a quick fix, Report -> Player Summary allows you to see a lot of population stats by doing "configure report" to select the stats you want and looking at the combined row on the bottom of the screen.

AggroShooter 8 years, 4 months ago

Using PT4 is actually simple, but if you want to dig up some serious stuff, i.e. very very very specific spots and/or specific villain tendencies, you have to know some DB stuff. SQL knowledge would help also obv

DirtyD 8 years, 4 months ago

Is there a site or post that explains how to do it? (the simple stuff)

Funnily enough my Coursera class in Python just randomly covered SQL, but my skills are still rather weak :)

ZenFish 8 years, 4 months ago

PuraVida DirtyD @Aggroshooter

Got curious about Hand2Note for database analysis and tested it out. It seems a superb tool for the job, very fast. Using a Mac so can't use it for play, but set it up on my Amazon cloud instance for analysis. Added Hand2Note ProTools for extra popups with more detailed information.

Took Nick's BvB template (see below) and applied it to a couple of similar HU situations (as BB caller vs SB opener, and as OOP raiser getting called outside the blinds) and found plenty of hotspots.

AggroShooter 8 years, 4 months ago

^Zenfish
I didn't try that program yet, I guess I will stick to PT4 anyway since I think I can extract any info I want. But obv, gonna check hand2note out, ty

PuraVida 8 years, 4 months ago

From what I've seen H2N looks really promising!

With PT4 I'm able to filter for hands by preflop actions without much trouble now. from a db anaysis standpoint (i'm on bovada) I use the reports tab and configure stats to get a general idea of what's going on overall but these stats will include hero's actions which skews the data slightly. But I feel like it's overly time consuming with my current understanding of how to manipulate the data.

Having hole card information is what I really focus on though as I find that it gives me a better feel for what's going on which I'm able to translate practically to the tables. This might be susceptible to biases but it seems like the most efficient way of going about things at the moment.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Basically the Night Vision pack is a combination of tutorials on how to run the research, and then contextualizing or
mapping the research so that it's practical.

The tutorials will show how to filter for the most relevant database stats throughout major lines, and then how to run those trends against Pio flop subset scripts.

My database team created excel templates for plotting environmental stats vs Pio outputs. They will be sold as addons if you don't want to make your own. Templates help with the final part of the process, which is to integrate the mapped trends through pattern recognition.

What you end up with is an exploitative blueprint that you can auto-deploy whenever you don't have enough player reads to deviate. You are never readless anymore, because you respond to vacuum situations with the accuracy gained from the alias research.

If more than 20 people hit the heart I'll post one of the fully mapped templates for a major line in an SSNL zoom pool so you can see how it works.

Byul 8 years, 5 months ago

Hi Nick,

First of all, fantastic content. Your poker mindset and your approach to the game has revolutionised my thinking in a lot of spots. So thank you. I have been one of those people smashing my head against the wall with pio for a while. I invested in GTO preflop ranges, analysed GTO frequencies meticulously, etc. and just felt like I was stagnating. Poker felt overwhelming, impossible and I had paranoia when playing of being imbalanced in spots that didn't matter. I began to want to play and study less and less. I fell into a massive slump.

I have a couple of questions I decided to post here because I think they might be relevant for others.

1) I don't play on a site with HEM support. I have no database and no access to data points. I also have basically no poker friends. Would you advise me to switch my play onto a HEM supported site due to the informational edge it would give me? I am disinclined to do so because I think the site I play on currently is soft and moving money would be a hassle.

2) At what bankroll would you advise someone to invest in your pio unlocked course? I think for me at the moment (I play 50 nl and 100nl) it would be too much of a $ commitment but I think it would help my game massively.

P.S. Iamindifferent - your posts above are fantastic.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Byul

Thanks. I would move toward another platform unless you can get a HUD running on yours. There are HUDS that you can use independent of tracking software, and having one will help increase your ability to profile players more accurately, which leads to higher confidence assumptions. As for the lack of database, you can still get really good value by buying hands from another site that mimicks your environment well. Generally I think most B and C list sites (non-pokerstars) have enough similarities at corresponding stakes for there to be value in using hands from another site.

The contradiction there is that if games are way better on your site than on the site you buy hands from, it probably means the games play substantially different. What site do you play on?

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

Here is a peak into the Night Vision pack. Thanks to detox database team for working as hard as they do at researching and organizing all of this data. I really doubt I would be where I am today if I didn't have their help in this department. They've simplified the direction of my training immensely.

The first image is an example of a blank template for SB v BB srp, mapped from the perspective of the BB. The sample was taken from 20M hands of 100z and 200z mixed.

The line is SB v BB srp. This template plots all major lines from the perspective of the IP player (BB in this case). The first 2 rows of the template are where you can record the specifications for your modeling (sites, stakes, preflop ranges, bet sizings used, etc). The rest of the template is used for plotting the data.

MDA = Mass Database Analysis (player pool #'s).
MFA = Multi flop Aggregation (Pio #s).

In this type of research, we're hunting for major deviations between player pool averages and Pio solver averages across all possible textures. This gives us vision over where the pool is generally imbalanced at a specific decision point. Here's what it looks like after you complete it:

For example, here we can see that in the first yellow line (SB X-flop), The BB environmental is stabbing 50% where Pio stabs 41.6%. Sample size for this line is 201k.

If we look down to the second line (XB-F), we can see that BB is folding 58.5% (!) where Pio is folding 41.5%. Sample size for this line is 47k.

This image is an example of a blank template. We'll be selling these as add-ons to the pack, for all major lines. If you don't like the sizing scheme we picked, we will custom format it for your preferred sizing scheme. This template is built for a larger database, you can see it extends down way further (it's cut off at the bottom). That's because it includes additional rows for texture analysis, unlike the basic template above. The larger your database, the more you can dive into texture analysis. We recommend a 30M hand database for these grids. The advantage is increased accuracy. You'll be able to isolate the types of textures that the pool is most imbalanced on in a certain line, so you can refine your exploits and gear them more toward the major textural hot-spots. This is where pattern recognition becomes highly relevant to the study and implementation process.

The pack will include tutorials compatible with HM2, PT4, a potentially a new software called Hand2Note, which has shown promising capabilities so far for handling larger databases while simplifying the filtering process.

Ultimately this pack is about you guys, so please share your suggestions. The more we understand what the community wants, the more we can optimize its features.

Now, who's got questions?!

ZenFish 8 years, 5 months ago

How big of a flop set did you run the Pio aggregation analysis on? Setting out to do some work inspired by what you showed here. Have been using 100 flops as my Pio pre flop standard so far, and unsure if more flops are necessary for good accuracy for this type of postflop work.

Very exciting work btw, thanks for posting it!

DirtyD 8 years, 5 months ago

Do you find that deviations from Pio are often exploitative "echoes" of earlier deviations?

For instance, in the bb v sb scenario, the player pool stabs slightly more often than Pio in the bb, but folds much more often in the sb. One way to understand over-stabbing would be as a rational exploitative response to sb folding too often once they check, but the effect is muted compared to sb's overfolding tendency, perhaps because the player pool at large does not understand how much sb is overfolding or isn't comfortable attacking it.

kingLeon 8 years, 5 months ago

Hey Nick :), great work :), couple questions.
Why did You mix 100 and 200z?
Are hands in the database from this year?
If above true and You can say, how did You obtain those hands?

ZenFish 8 years, 5 months ago

How did you assign ranges for the Pio Flop Aggregation Analysis? For this SB/BB sample, were you looking at Pool's average SB open/BB call frequencies and made reasonable guesswork about exactly what they were opening and calling with?

Not using Hand2Note, but from what I have picked up, Pool average ranges for specific spots is one of the things that their Range Research tool can pull out. Pio Aggregation analysis using those ranges would make the MDA/MFA model very strong.

DirtyD 8 years, 5 months ago

A minor suggestion: label them something other than MDA and MFA, which look very similar and don't read easily. Something like "pool" and "pio" would make the data a lot easier to interpret at a glance.

Nick Howard 8 years, 5 months ago

@Kenaces

Thanks for this. The issue with a one-size-fits all MDA and MFA data drop is that the outputs are sensitive to bet sizings used. That drop will lack relevance to guys who wish to model with different sizing schemes. I would also have to make it a lot more expensive, since a full data drop for a single environment represents about 100 hours of database mapping.

What I plan to do as the major part of the pack (beyond the tutorials) is to outline the biggest imbalances found to be pretty universal among the ssnl-hsnl pools, with explanations on the proper strategy adjustments to exploit those imbalances. The goal is to thread the pack with a substantial amount of "instant-winrate" content, so the buyer can get great value even if he never runs a single database filter. You lazy bastards! :)

Gandalf 8 years, 5 months ago

It is an incorrect approach to take action numbers from raw Pio sims and apply them in comparison to mass DB analysis unless one nodelocks the Pio sims to match mass DB tendencies and then max exploits those tendencies to elicit the proper exploitative response.

W/reg to what IamIndifferent said, I was wondering this too.

As I see it u do this:
1) Gain vision by MDA
2) Run the MFA's and compare them to MDA
3) Figure out exploits

I was wondering what exploits u delve into, are they minimal exploitive strategies or max exploitive? I guess ur answer will be, Its prolly overassumptive to be unexpoitable after the exploit nodelocking?

Do you go in-depth on the type of exploits and if so which pack show(s) this? In Pio Unlocked/Nightvision?

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

apostadorfurtivo

Did the Pio sims had into account rake? I think at this stakes it's
something that shouldn't be neglected.

Rake simulations are going to lose relevance as you head out of SSNL, they just don't affect things that much. Below I've attached the reports with rake for SSNL so you can see the differentials for the Pokerstars rake scheme. The differentiation in the template shows one set of data for the 100nl rake, and other for the midpoint between 100 and 200nl rake.

Some lines are affected more than others, with all of the deviations heading in the same direction (players betting slightly less or folding slightly more due to rake).

These templates are derived from Pio subsets designed to mimic the full game. We need to be focusing on areas of highest relevance, since the pre-flop inputs are already assumptive-laden. It's the BIG deviations that should grab our attention, and we can devise exploitative blueprint strategies around them with high confidence in our accuracy. Luckily, there's a lot of big deviations throughout the collection of major lines .. spots where the pools deviate by way more than a few percent. If there wasn't so many of these large deviations, these reports would be way less useful. Basically it's a testament to how weak the games still are.

How big of a flop set did you run the Pio aggregation analysis on?

Most of our initial reports were run on a 51 flop subset, over time Pio has released updated subsets and we've confirmed that the deviations in outputs are pretty much negligable. The advantage of the 51 flop subset is that it's much more practical, since it takes much less time to run the reports. The rake analysis above was done on a 153 flop sub-set, which explains why there are a couple of strange "rake vs no-rake" comparisons -- it's a representation of the subset deviations being different by a couple tenths of a point. For instance, the "flop stab vs X" line shows the same frequency for Rake vs No Rake, where it would be a few tenths of a point different if we used the same subset. Really we should be using the same subset here (we noticed after) but the bigger goal was basically to demonstrate the deviations are decently small for SSNL, and virtually negligable for MSNL/HSNL, especially since our intention is to identify the the most major exploitative hot-spots.

label them something other than MDA and MFA, which look very similar and don't read easily. Something like "pool" and "pio" would make the data a lot easier to interpret at a glance.

I agree, it's on the to-do list!

ZenFish 8 years, 4 months ago

DirtyD: label them something other than MDA and MFA, which look very similar and don't read easily. Something like "pool" and "pio" would make the data a lot easier to interpret at a glance.

Nick: I agree, it's on the to-do list!

Since this is a general method, I'd coin a phrase for the analysis model itself and let it become the phrase we all use. Maybe "MD/MF" would do. (Mass Database/Multiple Flop). "GTO" is a term we invented, too (doesn't exist in academic Game Theory research), so we can invent a name for this alternative approach so we all know what we are talking about.

Then we can say "I did a MD/MF on this situation, and guess what I found .... blabla" and we'd sound like cool scientists.

Because it is good science being done here, I like it a lot. It deserves a name. :-D

Follow-up question:
How did you set up the Pio post flop betting parameters for this single-raised pot scenario? I'm getting Hand2Note today to do similar work on my own, and it would be nice to have good input for the Pio model. If it's classified info, no problem. :-)

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

mike

Why did You mix 100 and 200z?

To increase sample size between two pools that played very similar to begin with.

Are hands in the database from this year?

Everything is from the last 18 months, with the vast majority being from the last 12 months. More notable is that the 2014 hands we bought to run comparisons for these two pools showed almost exactly the same results. That investigation led to my post "the games aren't getting harder, it's just the most popular excuse".

How did You obtain those hands?

A combination of purchased and played by students.

kingLeon 8 years, 4 months ago

Is it possible for You to reavel where did You buy recent sample of zoom hands as from what I know it is not possible to datamine zoom hands anymore?

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Gandalf

I was wondering what exploits u delve into, are they minimal
exploitive strategies or max exploitive? I guess ur answer will be,
Its prolly overassumptive to be unexpoitable after the exploit
nodelocking?

Everything is for practicality in my world. Minimal exploit strategies are not practical because they still use highly mixed strategies, and they still assume (falsely) that the majority of players are capable of countering the exploits that I advocate vs the major hot-spots obtained from the mapping process.

I think this is probably the SINGLE MOST under-rated perspective shift at the current stage of our developing industry. Please take 2 minutes and listen to my explanation in this video so that you can understand why it would be very smart of you to get off the GTO train, to whatever degree you're still hanging onto it.

Why you should be playing a highly exploitative strategy in 2017

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Up to a point, it is entirely your responsibility to demonstrate to the people closest to you that your intentions are pure. Beyond that point, it is entirely your responsibility to trust yourself enough to differentiate between a real mistake on your end, and a person projecting their insecurity upon you in the form of blame. In the event of the latter, start with forgiveness. If the conflict persists, finalize those relationships with love in your heart, and remove them from the picture. It is not your duty to serve those who are not available to their own truth.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Check out this 2 minute video for a new perspective on WHY so many players have struggled to grow over the last 2 years:

The Funhouse Theory

Samu Patronen 8 years, 4 months ago

The funhouse effect is certainly something I've experienced. It can be pretty hard to see the reality of the state of your poker game because we don't get that direct, correct feedback when you play a hand. In other games it's more obvious what your mistakes are, if you're just honest with yourself. In poker that is not enough.

Working outside of the tables is crucial for getting a better view on where your game stands. I think it's partly a myth that you get better in poker by just playing. Yes, you do get better, but learning that way will create way more holes and bias in your game compared to the approach of playing a lot AND doing a lot of work outside of the tables. Those players who just played a ton of poker and had success existed years ago, but I don't think that's really possible anymore (maybe it is possible if you're really smart and talented for poker, but even then, hard as fuck).

Working outside of the tables and getting more clarity is very benefitial for your mental game aswell. A big thing that causes tilt is uncertainty (definitely a case for me atleast). Getting more clarity on my thought process, population tendensies and variance has help me a lot.

Not a long time ago I rationalized my river calls with GTO and all that and ignored more relevant datapoints and I didn't focus on things that are actually incentivised at my games. I ran pretty well too. A deadly combination. I thought (atleast unconsciously) that I would just keep winning if I just played a lot. Turned out that was not the case.

My approach has changed a lot and I finally feel like I'm going to a right direction. Mainly (well, exclusively) because of you and all the content you've created for us, Nick.

Thank you for that.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

In order for growth to occur as efficiently as possible, truth needs to be valued above all else. That includes feelings. My job as a coach is to establish a level of mutual trust and respect on a PERSONAL level with the student, so that we can train in an environment of 100% open communication. When trust isn't established, communication gets lost in translation, and parties get defensive. Defensiveness is the cause of all inefficiency.

Really enjoyed working with Dimitris, my guest on the stream today. The humble ones have my full attention.

Upspiral 8 years, 4 months ago

I agree 100% Nick, thank you so much for giving me the opportunity. I'll give my best self to make it worth.

Dimitris

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Guys, I'm going HARD on content for the remainder of the year. Each day there will be a new excerpt from one of my recent Twitch streams, I'm plucking the gems and delivering them on a silver platter.

This one is a really common leak. You might recognize it as the tendency to avoid pushing yourself to go deeper into your analysis by using the excuse that "It's a 'whatever' spot".

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Bovada Guys -

I'm facilitating a database merge starting today. If you are interested in being a part of it, please send at least 100K of your original hand files to support@pokerdetox.com

My team will compile all of them and then upload to a private dropbox some time in January, at which point anyone who submitted will be added to the box and can download. I'll make monthly additions to the box past that point.

Hopefully this solves the problem you guys are having with sample issues for mass database research. Let me know if you can think of any ways to optimize this process.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Bovada Guys -

I'm facilitating a database drop starting today, it will be released sometime in January. If you are interested in being a part of it, please send at least 100K of your original hand files to support@pokerdetox.com

My team will compile all of them and then upload to a private dropbox, at which point anyone who submitted will be added. I'll make monthly updates past that point.

Hopefully this solves the problem you guys are having with sample issues for mass database research. Let me know if you can think of any ways to optimize this process.

Quido 8 years, 4 months ago

Does it really have to be original files? Crap! I haven't played almost at all this year but have data mined quite a bit >.<

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Anyone that would judge you for something in your past is demonstrating a weaker example of character than you should aspire to. Real vision is to be open to the fact that a person can actually change. We can provide that space.

New volunteer lesson starts on twitch at 1pm EST here

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

When the logic you operate from fails to produce a desirable experience over time, you have to seriously reassess your definition of what is logical.

This is what it feels like to walk away.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

You can make the choice to stop planning today , and just start a new journey that takes direction from whatever is most immediately relevant. For creative guys especially, this is the best way to get past the organizational starting friction of the creational process.

How I created Poker Detox

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Innocence is associated with naivity in western culture. Beware of that read. There are a growing number of us who are deepening in love and innocence from a fiercely intense process along the inward plane. A plane where those qualities are seen to be the growing side effects of a simple, clarified choice. The choice to transmute our perceived vulnerability into love, and to live from that experience. The decision to move in the direction of what feels right without proof.

Logic is simpler than we've been trained to understand. It doesn't depend on reasoning. It simply responds to incentive. To stagnate that flow with overanalysis is our favorite past-time. What happened to baseball?

Dddogkillah 8 years, 4 months ago

by no means is this post a example of competent flopzilla use xD
Im guilty too, but the more I do my 2 hours of solving a day the more comfortable I feel leaving my flopzilla archetype.

OhMyDog

Dauntless 8 years, 4 months ago

We should delete because Flopzilla "sends you into over-analytical territory"? Can you explain?

For me it looks like it just gives super-useful and super-basic info about how often a range x hits a board y.

ZenFish 8 years, 4 months ago

We should delete because Flopzilla "sends you into over-analytical territory"? Can you explain?
For me it looks like it just gives super-useful and super-basic info about how often a range x hits a board y.

I'll give it a try (disclaimer: Not dissing Flopzilla as such, have had it for years, but I agree with Nick here).

Information being detailed does not necessarily make it useful. Knowing how a range hits a flop does not tell you how to play it. You can draw some qualitative conclusion such as CB a lot on boards that you hit hard, and CB little on board where you don't. That's pretty much it.

There is a section called "Playing Accurately" in "The Mathematics of Poker" that illustrates in a beautiful way how hard it actually is to construct a max EV strategy, even if you know your opponent's two cards. So how far can you get with Flopzilla-work when your opponent is on a range that you can only estimate crudely?

Pio already serves you this information and more (it tells you how to play your range). Yet, even that is not useful for practical purposes because there is no way to replicate those strategies in-game. And even if you could, you are better off going on the exploit where you can.

So I don't think Flopzilla serves much purpose anymore when a) there is better software on the market, and b) the perfect answers that we actually can produce now are not all that useful (because of the complexity).

Important fact about models
Every model is wrong (otherwise it wouldn't be a model, but the thing itself), but some models are useful.

If our calculations are accurate, our inability to accurately estimate opponent ranges is still a big flaw for modeling work. The software doesn't care, it spits out numbers whatever you feed it. This creates a sense of doing something worthwhile.

Even solver calculations, which are the most accurate we can get for a set of assumptions, suffer from the range flaw. We usually can not know our opponent's range with high accuracy. If we can, good, but mostly we can't. This limits the usability of the perfect strategies we compute.

I'm a software junkie myself, so I know how ensnaring that trap can be. The ability to crunch numbers can lull us into a false sense of being productive. In reality we might be wasting time producing numbers that are not useful.

Prime example of study time flushed down the toilet:
All the work done for the last ~10 years trying to apply a nuts/air toy game model (MDF). This model suffers from two major flaws:

1) It's very wrong on a theory level because it ignores equity and how it changes from street to street

2) It ignores range asymmetry and tells us to defend a certain % of our hands based on the bet size we are facing, regardless of the strength of our range relative to our opponent's.

For some mysterious reason, that outdated and very wrong model has still not quite gone away. Apparently, people still count combos and try to defend MDF, ignoring equity, future cards, and relative range strengths on the board in question.

Flopzilla encourages that type of work, because that's one of the things it's good for. And when your tool of choice is a hammer, all your problems start to look like nails. But that doesn't make it worthwhile to hammer away.

(sorry for rant, I got carried away!)

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Dauntless

Thanks for letting me clarify. The guy in the video was using it to count combos and apply it to 1-a MDF. Using old tools like Zilla as a pseudo-solver is the mistake. That being said, there's nothing wrong with using it for simple range vs range breakdowns and storing ranges. It's just that the solvers have that stuff built in too now. It's kind of like Instagram doing everything snapchat used to do, except better.

Dauntless 8 years, 4 months ago

Cool, thanks for clarification. Kinda shocked if people use Zilla as (pseudo-)solver for strategies. Though that looks like an argument against being stupid, not an argument against Zilla.

I still feel like Zilla is solid for most simplest types of max exploits. Like we know population of our limit opens about x%, cbets x% on Kxx and we believe population does not play back with air against c-r. Now we just wanna know % of his range that is air and I found Zilla is easier, cheaper and more viewer friendly to use for that than any solvers.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

I see a LOT of money being burned by players who justify it by having good blockers for the call. When the environments are as imbalanced as they are, that's not a good enough reason. Short clip on why blockers are not enough.

DirtyD 8 years, 4 months ago

Even more so in PLO! Similar deal, people think way too much about having a good bluffing hand, not nearly enough about whether it's a good bluffing spot.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

If you pay attention, there are every-day opportunities to assert yourself in ways that are more accurate than the day before. This isn't about being perfect. It's about making an effort to distinguish those opportunities, and to respond in a way that maps to real freedom. Radical honesty. It can help to know that everyone is just as afraid as we are. To build empathy toward the collective struggle is what grants you the strength to lead. To me, most of life is about learning to go first.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Dudes, if I've ever brought you any value, please sign up for Hand2Note with my new affiliate code. I truly believe this software is going to become the standard by the end of 2017. It's just that much better than Holdem Manager and PokerTracker. In the last 2 weeks my team has explored the program more fully, and we've been able to optimize the Night Vision pack to ridiculous lengths on account of its speed and functionality. Thank you for caring, and please send this post to 1 other friend whose improvement is important to you!

Click Here and use this promo code for 10% off your first subscription purchase: H2N10EP

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

In order to become someone that others can depend on, you have to become more selective with what you say yes to. That's the part that feels selfish if you've been trained to be a people pleaser. Just realize that you're not doing anyone a favor by committing to something that doesn't inspire you.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Big announcement for Micro and SSNL guys:

I'm unrolling a new CFP format through Poker Detox, the first wave will accept 6 applicants. This is an accelerated program, with a really big twist. Training begins 1st week in January.

To those of you who have been unable to get coaching in 2016 because of your financial situation, start working on your speech.

I'll reveal the twist in a few days. As usual, it favors the struggle.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

If you think about what causes someone to lose, it's the difference between their understanding of reality, and what's actually going on in reality. Therefore, mental game is not separate from technical. My new private coaching calendar is opening up tomorrow (independent from the CFP announcement). Really looking foward to to working closer with all of you in 2017.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Now for the CFP twist..
I'm accepting losers only.

The first requirement is that you must supply a graph of 2016, break even AT BEST. (now you can finally be proud of your graph.)

I will be choosing 6 players to start this program on Jan 5, 2017

Requirements:
-SSNL or Micro players only.
-Supply a graph of all hands tracked in 2016
-Submit a written email or webcam/mobile recording, stating why you want this and what separates you from the field.

What you get:

-Private Skype group for the 6 of you.
-Free access to Pio Unlocked Packs 1 & 2 ($2800 value)
-Free access to PDMG pack ($800 value)
-Free access to Night Vision (TBA)
-Access to prerecorded 2016 lessons that I did with 2 CFP trial students. These were private lessons designed to build cumulatively, so they could be resourced to this CFP program.
-Access to all future 2017 private content that I select for the group.
-Weekly 75minute group call to discuss whatever is most pressing for you guys.

I'll provide additional 1-on-1 training on a case by case basis starting after the first month of results. I don't feel like a concrete model for 1-on-1 time is necessary for a losers only group, since the incentives are in place for me to make sure all members become winners as quickly as possible.

What I get:

$20,000 of your first $30,000 in winnings after joining the program. Profit splits will take place at the end of every month. You will take 33% of your profits at each split until the completion of the profit goal.

I intend for this to be an accelerated program. While there is no timeframe for the student to complete the profit goal, I do expect you to demonstrate that it your biggest priority in life, short of your loved ones.

There is no contract. All of my CFP relationships are built on trust. I'm picking guys who I sense the most potential in as learners. If at at any point I feel as though you're becoming a negative influence on the group, or not giving your best effort, I will remove you and fill the spot with the a new applicant.

I know there are 6 of you out there that are ready for this, so find me.

-First callbacks will be sent out on Christmas Eve.
-Final selections will be made on Jan 3.
-Training begins on January 5

Remember to include 2016 graphs, stakes/sites you wish to play on with your application. Also, please give a general description of your current financial situation. This is coaching for profits, not a staking program, so you need to be able to support yourself during the program. It helps my selection process if you show that you have a clear plan for how you will do that.

Any other questions, just ask below.

All applications, please send to CFP@pokerdetox.com

ill wid it 8 years, 4 months ago

nick, you rlly are a immeasurable resource. tbh i know i have posted in this thread but i rlly only started reading it this morning. I'm askance at the ludicrous time and effort it you must dedicate to be offering this preposterous amount of value all for free...

dont get me wrong i love it, im just stunned.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

New episode of Forum Crawl starting now on Twitch, come join us here

ZenFish 8 years, 4 months ago

Nice stream (watched it after).

There was a segment with discussion about the most effective way for a losing beginner to get from

X (current level) ----------------> Y (strong winning strategy)

And that a fast track to improvement is to first get the student out of the maze of trying to do zillion things well simultaneously, and make a switch to a simplistic brute-force winning approach revolving around a blueprint: 1) Shovelling aggression into hot spots where the population is overfolding, and 2) Overfolding in spots where the population is underbluffing.

Overshoot at first, then get more subtle later.

So instead of:

X ----------------> Y

We do:

X --------------------------------> Z (winning with exaggerated brute force)
Y <----------- Z

We know that we can find exceptions (opponent and/or texture based) to firing always in a statistically exploitative hot spot, but for a beginner with poor ranging and judgment skills these exceptions are unknowns, hence it's better to always fire, than to attempt hand reading and judgment.

Something that wasn't mentioned in the discussion (but I think it's worth pointing out) is that overshooting with 100% exploit strategy in hot spots has the desirable side-effect of gathering data for future improvement faster than any other strategy.

By firing on auto, a lot of shots are fired into obstacles that a better player would avoid. But by shooting into them again and again, we quickly find out where they are.

It's like putting the player in front of a wall 30 feet ahead, with a firearm of choice, and say:

Your task is to hit the wall every time and I'll pay you for each hit, but there are a few invisible objects in front of it. You'll pay me a sizeable chunk if you hit them, but you'll mostly hit the wall anyway, so you'll still win. Now choose the most suitable weapon and try to make money as fast as possible.

Spraying the wall fast with a sawed-off shotgun to map out the contours of the objects should work rather well. It would both win money immediately and quickly expose the bad spots to fire at, allowing us to switch to a better strategy fast.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

Love that you guys are connecting to this type of material. My whole position in poker right now is predicated on this:

we have new software that offers greater vision over the pools, and it's no longer an "opinion" that highly exploitative strategies are both quantifiable and incentivized for the HSNL climb.

Night Vision pack is coming, end of January! I'm going to spend some time next week showing you guys how Hand2Note has transformed what we're able to do with really large databases. The speed and organization of this software is a dream and I hope to see them crush the 2017 market LIKE THEY SHOULD.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

One thing that I think would surprise you guys is how unoriginal most player profiles are. Sure everyone is unique, but for the most part there's only a handful of big leaks that cause most of the winrate problems throughout the community. Here's a short clip where I put this idea into context, hopefully you guys can pull from it.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

I re-opened for 2017 private coaching this week. Lessons are open to all PDMG pack holders. The scheduling calendar is integrated to the poker detox site, you can check it out below. I'll keep opening more slots as demand increases. I'm getting pumped to crush the new year with you guys.
Calendar Page

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

The concept of self trust came up again on the stream today. I want to nail this up on the wall:

In any environment where full vision is unavailable, self trust will always be the deciding factor in visionary strategy development. If you want to expand, you have to be willing to explore. Stop waiting for someone else to prove it.

Nick Howard 8 years, 4 months ago

When your approach is aligned enough on the technical side, the reason you aren't improving is always a lack of mental intensity. If your approach is aligned enough on the mental side, you are obstacled only by poor material. Meaning you're learning the wrong things, so it doesn't matter how good you are at organizing and integrating them.

Realize that both ends of the spectrum require a good amount of humility in order to come back to balance. One requires you to punt your whole training model, the other forces you to admit that you don't care enough about improving. Both are painful confessions.

In my case, it took an intense amount of application and burnout before I could finally trust that the problem wasn't my work ethic. It was the quality of my strategy. Upon realizing that, I experimented aggressively until I found my way.

My purpose at this stage is to help others find direction. Simply and suddenly. Of all the players who contact me, this is the most common thread: "I'm not able to find direction, and I need help". Thanks for your honesty.

I am not a nosebleed player. I have no intentions. What I specialize in is the climb. I know how to move a player from small stakes to high stakes, and for most of you that will be all that is relevant. You'll take your profits and diversify into other more lucrative industries. Ones that resonate more with your true desires and personal evolution. New projects that beat to new rhythms. Let them match your heart. I often feel like this blog only says three things, in three-thousand different ways. Friends, please pick the way that works for you, and never look back. You have more to give.

love for the struggle

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

Pleased to announce that there will be a private Skpe group for the Night Vision pack buyers. It will be similar to the Piosolver Skype group, we'll just do less talking and more winning.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

@Ddog
Yea we will do weekly roll calls of stakes/sites so guys can match up and branch off together. Main group will remain open for general discussion.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

People don't experience "you". They experience what you represent to them. If you see that, you can choose to demonstrate more confidence without confusing it as arrogance. Real confidence is actually humility, and it is truly in service to others.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

In one word, what do you think the most valuable commodity of the future is? 3 people need to answer before me.

urb 8 years, 3 months ago

Perspective. Because it's a gateway to reinventing the reality toward greater happiness. I win ;)

Dddogkillah 8 years, 3 months ago

time

bing bing
agree with the effective and efficient use of time, there is no stopping someone from getting any commodity they want except more time.

ZenFish 8 years, 3 months ago

Vision. Ye, I knew you would like that. ;-)

I was first going to write knowledge but that doesn't quite describe it. Knowledge connotes a state of being perpetually one step behind in the processing of information, whereas vision connotes a state of awareness of what's going on. Vision allows us to act fast and accurately (and early) without having to sit and wait for information to reach us in the form of common knowledge.

Time is valuable, but only as valuable as we make it, and we all have 24 hours a day and a lifetime of days. If you find yourself short on time, remove drag from your life.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

Gave the first visual leaks of the upcoming Night Vision pack on the stream today, 10 different major pools, all major SBvBB srp decision points are plotted Pool vs Pio subsets. Find it here 11 minutes into the video.

If you want to purchase Hand2Note, hit the link below and use that code for 10% off. You need the edge version for the best functionality.

Hand2Note Code: H2N10EP

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

As a coach, I spend a lot of time figuring out how to contextualize my content in a way that will translate to a wider audience. In my personal life, I care much less about that. To me, it just makes more sense to spend time with people that already understand you.

Sigmund-Freud 8 years, 3 months ago

book A book worth your time if you are interested in some automatic responses and psychological connections within, that people will try to exploit, and why we function the way we do

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

A couple guys said "time" was the most important commodity of the future when I asked that question the other day. I said perspective. I'd like to open this up again:

How we define "value" is the decider. So, what is your definition of value? If it's happiness, how does time secure your happiness? (post!)

chestnutfruit 8 years, 3 months ago

Aristotle says in the Nicomachean Ethics that the end goal for all human beings is happiness, even if they are superficially aiming at something else; e.g. "I value money most" or "I value respect most" actually means "I think money will make me happiest" or "I think respect will make me happiest." If any of you think otherwise, please make an argument for it. I've always thought Aristotle's argument was bullet-proof, but if anyone can make me question it then that would be pretty cool.

chestnutfruit 8 years, 3 months ago

As for the "time" or "perspective" argument, I'd say perspective is the stone cold nuts. I can approach this argument from so many angles, but one way is to look at all the books, memoirs, journals, etc. of people who were told they only had X amount of time to live. Instead of being given more, these people had their time taken away from them, which caused a massive perspective shift. Suddenly these people are able to see more clearly what aspects of their lives are genuinely important to them. And perhaps more importantly their closeness to death allows them to act on those aspects without regard to outside influences, ego, anxiety or anything else that had previously prevented them from acting genuinely.

Mario Batali (chef, restaurateur, writer, TV personality) was asked in an interview "How can you do so much and still manage to be happy?" and his answer was so brilliantly simple: "By nature I'm happy. I wake up happy every day." I would rather have that perspective than have X number more years to live. Of course, for most people we need a lot of time to develop that perspective. But still, that makes "time" a means to an end, the end being higher quality perspective, which leads to the ultimate goal: happiness.
Interview: https://youtu.be/aj2QhISQ9Z8?t=10m16s

P.S. I'm one of the CFP finalists, so please wish me luck :D

Sigmund-Freud 8 years, 3 months ago

Value is subjective, it gains it`s definition when someone actively pursuit an object or attempts to achieve a trait. Then on introspection one can assess in hindsight if the pursuit was an act of projected or internalized aim, does it bear the fruit anticipated? Hence perspective must be the superior commodity as it allows for the “value” to be deciphered. But perspective can only come about as a consequence of searching for value at the cost of time.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

@Sigmund, you said:

But perspective can only come about as a consequence of searching for value at the cost of time.

Is it possible that the assumption that one needs time to gain perspective is itself just a limitation in perspective? In other words, if we stopped believing we needed more time, would we not immediately gain perspective?

Samu Patronen 8 years, 3 months ago

Time alone does not secure happiness, that's for sure. Freedom alone doesn't do that either.

I like value = happiness as a definition, therefore the question might aswell be "what brings us the most happiness?"

Perspective seems like a pretty good answer. However, I think we need to add "logic" or "truth" into the mix.

Why? Because if your perspective is not rooted in truth / objective reality, then your perspective is fragile, because if you live your life with a certain perspective and all the sudden life challenges your perspective, there's a conflict, which atleast makes you question your perspective. And you need to have trust in your perspective so that you can allow your perspective to bring you happiness and security.

All this made me think a lot. Where goes the line between having a positive perspective and being ignorant? It almost feels as if we could never be happy if we truly knew how fucked up the world is (how many people are unhappy as we speak, how many people don't have food, shelter, security or love in their lives).

Defining happiness is not easy, and that makes my questions / points kind of hard to answer in their own contexts. I'm not capable of going higher for now.

Sigmund-Freud 8 years, 3 months ago

@Nick

Is it possible that the assumption that one needs time to gain perspective is itself just a limitation in perspective? In other words, if we stopped believing we needed more time, would we not immediately gain perspective?

I agree with this, the way I think of time in this context is that it is relative for perspective. The cost is either actual time spent or the realization that you do not have it or it is lost.

D0ntTazeMeBr0 8 years, 3 months ago

@Nick

Is it possible that the assumption that one needs time to gain perspective is itself just a limitation in perspective? In other words, if we stopped believing we needed more time, would we not immediately gain perspective?
Blockquote

Not only do i think it's possible, but i think that's exactly what happens. We think that we need more time to gain perspective only because we assume that we'll have more time. We use this false promise of future time as a crutch because we lack the self discipline to be diligent each day. You can see this situation highlighted when people find out that they have a terminal illness. My grandfather was a very stubborn man. He and my mother had a falling out and didn't speak for 10 years. When he was diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer, he reached out to make amends with my mother within a week's time. It made me realize that throughout those entire 10 years he must have always been missing his daughter and grandchildren, but kicked the can of reconciliation down the road...until there wasn't any road left. It shouldn't an event like Black Friday for us to realize that we should have been operating out of more urgency.

arizonabay 8 years, 3 months ago

I just want to chime in w/ my 2 cents. I get the arguments for perspective being the most valuable but I don't think anything supersedes time as the most valuable. If you have zero time, then you can't even have perspective (or anything else). Having time available is the only way you can even have perspective, therefore, imho, time is clearly the most valuable commodity, it makes happiness possible, it doesn't create happiness on its own but without it, you have no chance of being happy or of having any perspective at all.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

Having time available is the only way you can even have perspective.

This is assumptive, time is is not structurally real. We could debate that for years, or you could take one hit of D-M-T. No one's ever died from it. Paradigms just get crushed.

As an alternative to learning through direct experience, you can join the official Piosolver Skype Group! ;)

arizonabay 8 years, 3 months ago

If time is not structurally real then nothing is structurally real and we are the imaginations of ourselves.......Here's Tom with the weather........So good to see you.

Kevin Lawrence 8 years, 3 months ago

So, what is your definition of value?

Quality.

If interested in this topic (and if not) I highly recommend reading Robert Pirsig's Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

CFP applicants, check your emails. I may have left a present underneath your tree. Congratulations to all the finalists, there are 17 of you left, 6 will make the team. Please follow the instructions in the email for your final submission.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

I'm not good at much. I can't wrap your Christmas present, and I still tie my shoes the bunny-ears way. But I have other traits. I can teach a loser to win. I can show a boy how to trust himself. I can check-mate the mind until it wants to change. I can love a stranger.

My whole life I had the people closest to me say that I would never amount to much if I didn't become better at more. They said my limited skills would prevent me from becoming a man.

I punted that model on faith. On logic. A man plays his strengths and accepts his weaknesses. He channels his passion in the midst of adversity. He effects real change. Life offers you the choice to polarize into love or fear. A man is brave enough to love.

Christmas is my favorite day.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

The Pio Unlocked course is now on sale, the 2 packs have been combined. $800 off the original price until Jan 5. Happy holidays and let's all turn the 2017 corner with ambition.
Sale

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

I've met very few people who are open to the hypothetical that literally everything they know could be wrong. That type of availability leads to bold exploration. That leads to discovery, which leads to refined preference. If you want greater freedom, prioritize the ability to trust in the potential of the unknown.

Rob515 8 years, 3 months ago

Hey Nick is it too late to submit hands & footage for you 2017 CFP project?

The youtube content is great and I have already gained quite a lot from these videos.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

Finding your talent doesn't take skill, it just requires exploration. Skill comes after you figure out where you belong in the first place.

*CFP final selections will be made by Jan 8.

Gandalf 8 years, 3 months ago

2 things:

1) vlog topic: on the mental game of moving up

2) is there a way in RIO functionality to have the latest threadposts at the top? Its annoying to have to scroll through 500 posts everytime..

3) happy newyear!

Dddogkillah 8 years, 3 months ago

2) is there a way in RIO functionality to have the latest threadposts at the top? Its annoying to have to scroll through 500 posts everytime..

Once these blog get to a certain size it stops bringing to the end of the page.
Pro Tip: drag the slider

screamdustry 8 years, 3 months ago

Hey Nick, what about January streams? You cant stop streaming now, when you fucking addicted us from your stuff!

Small idea: maybe continuing 'Lessons' format, but with CFP guys? It would be cool to see how guys are progressing under your patronage.

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

Hey guys. I've been without internet moving into a new place in Vegas, shit's been crazy.

Some updates:

January streams, not sure yet. Might just do spontaneous stuff and record it so you guys can catch it whenever. Twitch will definitely continue but I'm focusing on the Night Vision launch this month because it's just that important.

Night Vision official release date is now Februay 5th. Pack will be on a 48 hour launch sale for $1250. After that it will settle at $1450. Pleased to announce we will have a complimentary Skype group as well as free monthly video addons to this pack. My goal is to make Night Vision a fully functional community of independent learners, focused on on the most cutting edge mass database analysis in the industry.

Vlog 2017, coming in February. Got love for you.

yunier2002 8 years, 3 months ago

I'm still going through all the past streams in YouTube, but definitely need more Twitch. Can't wait for the night vision pack to find out which other lines we can exploit in our environments for the highest amount of winrate

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

This is a screenshot of the Night Vision leak I gave during the last stream of December. What you're looking at is the Hand2Note software, being leveraged to it's full potential. My team has added red indicators to this shot, to denote major hotspots (7% deviations or > from Piosolver subset reports). We went with 7% because it was a range that still gave us a lot of spots to recommend vacuum exploits, while still providing a high confidence that our margin for error was very low from the solves. These are 10 different major pools, listed for all major SB v BB srp postflop lines:

The last two columns are a little off center because this is a cut and paste

Check out the universality of the major hotspots, indicated by the numbers in the red boxes. These pools play very similar. The beauty of Hand2Note is that once you set up these filters to your preference, you can swap in a database for any environment and you get the new numbers instantly. The pack will contain full tutorials for both Hand2Note and HM2.

If you still don't have Hand2Note Edge, you can get it through my affiliate link below with a 10% promo code:
H2N10EP

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

Humbled to be in this position. These guys are full of heart and I can't wait to watch them grow. Deeply connected to the struggle. 2nd Student Call

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

All CFP finalists for this fleet have been chosen and contacted. I ended up taking 8 instead of 6 because the applications were just that good. I'm planning on opening up for another fleet in early March, will give details when I have them. Now we can get back to focusing on Night Vision!

Nick Howard 8 years, 3 months ago

Big Night Vision post coming by ZenFish. This guy has been a pleasure to work with over the last month and has offered us tremendous value to our team. He's been the beta tester for the pack, and we've been able to optimize a lot of things for our users with his feedback.

ZenFish 8 years, 3 months ago

During the last month I've had the opportunity to beta test the PokerDetox Night Vision pack built by Nick and his database crew. First reviewing the video tutorials and then rolling up the sleeves and implementing the Night Vision custom stats for Mass Database Analysis in Hand2Note.

Here's how that went:

Review of the PokerDetox Night Vision package

What The Night Vision team aims to teach you:

  • A universal method for training accurate exploitative play against any player pool
  • How to gain (and keep) vision over your environment no matter what site and stakes you play
  • How to unleash the power of GTO solvers and use them to exploit on a massive scale
  • How to simplify your strategies and increase your win rate simultaneously

This has become possible by combining the two most powerful poker software products on the market today; PioSOLVER (which we all know and love) and Hand2Note (latest generation of tracker software that can handle humongous databases blazingly fast).

The Night Vision training starts with learning how to set up and use the software:

  • Pio tutorial (2 videos)
  • Hand2Note tutorial (3 videos)
  • HoldemManager tutorial (1 video)

After this section you will be able to do all the necessary Pio calculations and build advanced Hand2Note custom filters for Mass Database Analysis. If you want to stick with HEM2, there's a guide for doing MDA with that as well. I recommend Hand2Note strongly because of the speed, ease of use, and custom stats power, but in principle you can do Night Vision work with any tracker.

The tutorials are clear and easy to follow. I did build-along in Hand2Note while watching and pausing the H2N videos and had the basic custom stats built after ~3 hours of work. Setting up all basic and advanced stats with board texture filters took me about two workdays.

After building up all the custom statistics, your Hand2Note Range Research module will change from this default setup:

to this custom made Mass Database Analysis monster machine:

Link to full-sized image: https://i.gyazo.com/1db594979d71fdbb67af9c32d5a6dd11.png

This is a screenshot from a Mass Database Analysis of a player pool using 24M hands. The Night Vision statistics tell us the pool's frequencies for selected post flop lines (blurred, so I don't give away too much info) as averages and with variations over various board textures.

These numbers are to be compared with Pio calculations (to be filled in later) in order to identify the pool's leaks for the postflop lines in question. Sample sizes for each post flop line statistic are given in parentheses. Note that the original Hand2Note statistics are still there (on the bottom of the list to the left) in case we need them.

After software training and stats building, you move on to the last part of the pack where Nick discusses universally exploitable player pool tendencies ("hotspots") and how to build a hotspot blueprint for exploitative play vs the pool.

The course has a smooth progression and requires no previous skills in software use or advanced theory. First getting software setup and basic use out of the way, then moving on to advanced custom stats building, and putting the pieces together on the end.

When you are done, you will have an extensive Hand2Note Range Report setup for Mass Database Analysis work. You will have the skills to quickly extend the setup with more statistics and reports as you see fit. You will know how to combine player pool statistics with Pio calculations to sniff out player pool leaks for any scenario that you are interested in, preflop and postflop. And, most importantly, you will know how to put together a game plan that exploits your pool’s leaks.

The Night Vision method follows the principles of good science. It's explicitly defined, reproducible, and testable (and built by a team with scientific pre-poker background). By building up the the Mass Database Analysis toolkit from scratch you get learning-by-doing right from the get-go, which is the best way to learn. If you get stuck with something, the Night Vision skype group will help you out.

I recommend this package highly for anyone on any level. It only requires an open mind and the willingness to do work on your own (or with other members of the Night Vision Skype group), the rest will be spoon-fed to you. If you feel stuck, paralyzed with theory, or you are already theory-strong but want to explore player pool exploits as a complementary approach, you should find the package extremely valuable.

I am pretty stoked at the moment with the potential of the Night Vision approach and I think it will refresh brains and spark enthusiasm for those who delve into it.

/end review

yCavia 8 years, 3 months ago

Simplification in practise: entertaining the idea of getting a tattoo on my wrist:

IDK:)

An every day reminder that its not only very necessary to openly express this to myself and others, but also very very OK.

Lets all do this and become a movement of never-ending acceleration!

Nick Howard 8 years, 2 months ago

On Monday I'll be starting a massive Instagram give-away marathon in the spirit of the Night Vision pack release, set for February 5. I'll be giving away free packs, free lessons, and just spending some good quality time interacting with you guys through that platform. If you don't have Instagram, this is the perfect time to make an account and get involved. All you have to do is engage in the comments section of my posts and you'll qualify for that day's giveaway prize. Follow me at "nickwillmadeit" and get ready for Christmas in January :)

nutpopper 8 years, 2 months ago

I appreciate your journey and hope it proves able to improve my own. When you do mass-database analysis in a non-anonymous pool, do you differentiate between regs and non-regs? If so, how do you go about doing this? Do you play with 2 (or more?) blueprints based on the type of player you're playing with?

Also, if I'm deciding between midstakes ignition and midstakes ACR, what would you suggest?

Thanks for everything.

Nick Howard 8 years, 2 months ago

nutpopper

I gotta go with midstakes Ignition there.

As for playing different blueprint strategies vs different sub-profiles of a pool, it's definitely a more advanced way to apply database analysis to your game. I do recommend it and my team covers this territory in the Night Vision pack.

Nick Howard 8 years, 2 months ago

nutpopper

Night Vision drops FEB 5. There will be a 48 hour $200 off launch sale. Also guys, just a heads up so you're not scrambling to organize funds during the sale window -- I won't be able to take Skrill or Bitcoin purchases for this pack. Payment options are PayPal, credit card and debit card.

Nick Howard 8 years, 2 months ago

Yesterday over at my Instagram giveaway, the prize was $200 worth of super bowl party food from the restaurant of your choice. When I was messaging the winner I realized the Feb 5 sale launch of the Night Vision pack is the same day as the superbowl :D. I'm going to extend the sale by an extra day to account for it. In the meantime, hit up my instagram @nickwillmadeit if you like free stuff!

Nick Howard 8 years, 2 months ago

Ignition Players:

I can't stress how important it is to become a better note taker, specifically on this site. The degree of volatility in the recreational portion of the alias is more bizarre than any other pool I've experienced. There is SO much room for hard exploitative counters, just by being the first one to detect the fish. Next time your multi-tasking during a session, picture the win-rate you're lighting on fire just by missing the note that would've made that full-stack pot a clear call instead of a clear fold. Speed is one of your biggest edges in a volatile, anonymous environment. Leverage it!

Here's a 1 hour talk I gave today on Facebook Live, I did some QnA on the upcoming Night Vision pack and got into some mental game discussion.

Night Vision countdown: 6 days

yunier2002 8 years, 2 months ago

Very true! I try to have every player color coded and at least 1 note taken by the time I have 25 hands on each player. And if by then I don't have at least 2 fun player tags on a table, finding a new one is a priority in most stakes.

Great Facebook Live today very informative.

Nick Howard 8 years, 2 months ago

Night Vision is now available. My team is on Reddit for the next 2 hours (12pm-2pm PST), answering questions about the pack. After, we'll be on Twitch from 2pm-3pm PST.

Night Vision Sneak Peek HERE
Join us live on Reddit HERE
Buy Night Vision HERE

The 48 launch sale will end Wednesday at 12pm PST. $200 off until then.

WM2K 8 years, 2 months ago

Hey! So I went through a bunch of your RIO vids and thought I d give some feedback as I said I would on insta. First off pretty great stuff and I love the focus on teaching people how dig, model and think for themselves. Also I definitely see a real progression from you as a coach from your first earlier videos to your most recent ones. Very impressive as teaching is ridiculously hard. I have to teach cooking and professional kitchen habits to my team and can barely keep calm through all the madness.

One point that I ve heard you stress quite a lot is the integration periods. You likely already are keen to this but this is well backed up by learning theory that I ve come across. On coursera theres a amazing series called "learning how to learn". Taking breaks and taking advantage of breaks and integration periods is key to learning vast and abstract subjects like math, languages and poker. It gives your brain time to make the neural connections so that when you come back to it you have a even more solid base to build on. Spaced review is also important for basically the same reasons.

Keep up the good work and thanks again!

Nick Howard 8 years, 2 months ago

^ I love these.

Today I posted 4 new Twitch dates. The first two are debuting my new lesson format "5000 hand storm". I mark a bunch of hands from a volunteer 5,000 submission, and generate a context for hand review creating relevant themes and highlighting them with pattern recognition. It's a model that seems to really land well with students and I'm excited to premier it.

The second two streams are dedicated to bringing you guys up to date on my CFP program. I'm opening up applications for my second wave of students on March 1st. These two streams will provide all the information on how the course operates, what you get as a student, what I get as a coach, and what to expect for the application process.

Also, I'll be doing a Facebook live stream answering general mental game questions on March 1 at 230pm. The first one of these that I did a week ago went really well and I'm looking forward to staying more active with the community on both FB and Instagram. I will keep mixing in random giveaways to give you guys more incentive to participate there.

Oh and also, come March I'll be doing more RIO vids than ever before. The last videos did really well and the demand for more content seems to be there, so you can expect it!

WM2K 8 years, 2 months ago

Obv I m super pumped for this. Tune in on the 20th to see Nick rip through my shot at 100nl :D. Cant wait!

Byul 8 years, 2 months ago

Nick, I believe your promo code for H2N is no longer valid. Do you have a new one?

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

@ Byul

Usually if the code doesn't work it means you've already registered for a version of H2N prior to using the affiliate code. If that's not the case, try using this direct discount link as an alternative: hand2note

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

The biggest reason for staying on the safe side of polarization isn't necessarily b/c it's more theoretically incentivized. It's because most guys who depolarize too frequently are extremely inconsistent in their ability to get off the hand after bloating the pot. I get that it's basic on the surface. The reason I'm posting it is because it's 2017 and still a leak that permeates literally every limit up to high stakes. You can know something and not apply it consistently. So many of you would win so much more if you just handled this one thing .. CONSISTENCY!

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Streams have been on fire lately. I'm working on my metaphors. Hopefully this one connects on a level with some of you! Teleport Clip

Full Stream

Quido 8 years, 1 month ago

Nick, I have got this idea after hearing about your PDNV skype group and how it helps to connect dedicated players. I think you could create a private forum for your course members on your site. I only own the PIO Unlocked course and I think I'd benefit from it.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Quido

Thanks for this, it's in the mix. We took the skype groups down temporarily while we reorganize the entire format. We should have something really efficient up and running by April.

Dddogkillah 8 years, 1 month ago

quidoUNLOCK

heard allot of positive feedback about this idea ,

you hear what nick was talking about his last stream?!?!?!
when is that going to happen!?!?!
id sell a kidney for that shit mang!!!

xD
great strum the other day nick
yaaaa, you where on fire :D

screamdustry 8 years, 1 month ago

I loved part of your stream about insistance. As i was also pretty deep into this, here is my experience.

The problem is coming from macro. The root of its behaviour is coming from that feel of failure, just as you said at stream.
If you wake up at morning and you feel like shit or even if you're ok for most of a day, but facing every struggle, you start to doubt in yourself and feel powerless, its so difficult to resolve this problem still being in this mood. To release that suffer, you cant do anything else at the moment that is not directly approaching the cause of your suffering. Its so difficult to see whats (truly) relevant and whats not being in this perspective.
Your student wants the direct way, not because he wants the shortcut, he just wants to stop feeling like shit at the moment. And he feels like stoploss is not really sustainable-long term option. He's not necessary looking for temporary fix, he just wants to feel good, and he can unlock this feeling only when he finds the proof that he's heading a good route with his career.

I feel like, its way tougher to get throught it trying to change micropatterns. Its because its based on trust, and you have none at the moment. Reffering to your 'teleport' metaphor - its so difficult to find courage get into that plane if you dont belive that it wont crush on the way.

I went trought this by changing my macro. If the root behind the problem is that you feel like a failure, challange the effects coming from this single thing.
Its really easy to say, yes, change your fucking core belief that was determining your whole life. But there was no other way for me than just realizing, step by step, that this core belief is just worthless. Its not doing anything good for you. And whats more important - its just not true. You're just what you're. I liked when you once said at your stream, that it took YOU just right amount of time to balance you. Its same with us, folks, you are what you are and at this moment you're - just a result of your life variables. Accept that, and you'll start moving forward.

God, i wish i could be just half as good with words as you Nick. Waiting for more content, love.

Kalupso 8 years, 1 month ago

“Stop beating yourself up. You are a work in progress; which means you get there a little at a time, not all at once.”
-Unknown

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

I'll be on Facebook live from 1-2pm PST today doing a mental game Q&A, then headed over to instagram for a $5,000 coaching giveaway in honor of opening day for the next wave of coaching-for-profits applications. Links below:

Facebook Live Q&A (1pm-2pm PST
Instagram Giveaway (2pm-230pm PST)

For round 1 of CFP applications, send to CFP@pokerdetox@gmail.com:

  • A graph dating back 12 months
  • A 2 minute video introducing YOU

This flight of applications is open to ALL cash game players, regardless of stakes or results.

First callbacks will be March 14. Final selections April 1.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

My CFP program works like this:

For 50nl players and lower: $50K profit goal, 40/60 split (student/coach).
for 100nl players and higher: $100K, 50/50 split.

All students who sign onto the 50K goal will have the option to upgrade to the 100K 50/50 plan upon completing their original goal.

I don't take profit splits from the student until he starts beating 100nl. I don't think it makes sense to tie guys to micros in the early months of the stake by forcing them to pay out profits. If you're getting good enough to play higher, I want you to use those winnings to take shots.

Any other Q's about this breakdown, feel free to ask. Last week I did a Twitch episode providing an overview of what the student gets from the program, you can watch it here here

For a more inside look into how I'm running this project, check out my Facebook Live talk from yesterday. I'm approaching CFP with an emphasis on a personal relationship with every student in the program.

My aim is for high conversion rates to profit goals, and friends for life :)

To apply, please send:
- A graph dating back 12 months
- A 2 minute video introducing yourself

First callbacks will be March 14th, final selections on April 1!

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

I said something today to the losers CFP group that seemed to really resonate, hopefully it connects with some of you:

if you're focused too much on finding the right and wrong spots to bluffcatch , you're going to miss the overall point, which is to organize your assumptions (based on data points collected) , and challenge them for their credibility.

I''ll post some graphs of their progress later today

KingFiveOff 8 years, 1 month ago

Hey Nick, I'm trying to apply to the program however the email "CFP@pokerdetox@gmail.com" is not working, and neither is "pokerdetox@gmail.com". Could you direct me to an email that I can send my application into?

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Here's some results from the CFP losers-only group.

First player is Dimitris, he started with me back in November as my first CFP student as a losing player at micros. He's about 4 months into his program. He's been documenting his experience on his RunItOnce blog here:

Dimitris Before^

Dimitris 16 weeks in^

The next two pairs of before/after graphs belong to the two leaders of the the January flight. Both of these guys entered as losing micro players.

Eric Before^

Eric 7 weeks in^

Eric has been documenting his experience at his YouTube channel here

Semu Before^

Semu 7 weeks in^

This guy has re-defined my definition of work ethic. Probably the sickest grinder I've ever come across. He came out of nowhere with this sample and has served as a big inspiration early on for the other team members.

Over half of this flight has moved up 1 limit so far. I've been optimizing the program pretty quickly with the help of these guys. Shifting over to the 5,000 hand storm private lesson format as the main training model has really accelerated things, and when we combined it with tools like mind mapping, group calls, and team challenges for monthly volume/winrate goals, there's been a real surge in the energy and productivity of the team.

Overall I'm really satisfied with how things look so far and I'm excited about the new and improved methods we've put together for the next flight of guys. I'm all about optimizing the CFP machine right now.

Side note: The majority of the CFP guys are meeting up with me in Europe during the first week in April, so we'll be doing some Vlog stuff while we're there. Pumped to meet everyone and I think it'll add to the momentum of the team to spend some vacation time together. Bought a new Go-Pro for it.

Upspiral 8 years, 1 month ago

1st post of this thread Nick mentions: "We are all students and teachers, simultaneously. Neither role is in greater service to the other."

After being his student for about 5 months now, I have to say that he is one of the few persons I've met in my life, that his words become actions. Some days ago, he went into an integration period(and he told us) because he realized that he found a better way to teach us a specific topic. He took 100% responsibility to find the way to teach us more effectively, instead of just stop giving a fuck and just jump to another topic. In my opinion this requires "balls". It requires honesty and humility and this is something that is not really common especially in poker "industry". - BTW, my opinion is like that, because so far all I've seen from other coaches is a hate towards responsibility, and it's not only my personal experience.

So in other words, besides a poker coach, we've found a mentor here. If I go back in November where I first send an e-mail to Nick, and at some point I asked him:

"Could you please give me some advice, or an action plan of what should I do in order for you to be my mentor at some point?"

I wouldn't imagine that awesome of a journey! And maybe what I say sounds like an overkill. I'm not playing high stakes in 5 months or anything, but for first time I'm a winner over a solid sample and I can sleep at night. I can have fun with out feeling guilty.

Nick, thanks man, you're a rare type of person and I really hope that we'll work together for a long time. Much love.

PS. I want a graph like Semu!

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

In a few days, all of my private coaching packs will have more affordable monthly payment options. If you're a micro or SSNL guy who was struggling to piece together a full buyin for training, this one's for you. I'll make a final announcement when the new structure is up and running.

Dddogkillah 8 years, 1 month ago

coaching lessons would be sick too :D
the ones your recording for CFP
#CFPHYPE
or check this out CMP (coaching monthly payment) :D
Sounds sick br0!!♥

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

•If you're mad at someone for letting you down, you're probably unreliable.

(you judge yourself harshly for personal inconsistencies, and so you project that judgement onto others)

•If you feel taken advantage of, you're probably a victim

(you won't take personal responsibility for putting yourself in vulnerable situations, so you blame the world)

•If you can't accept love and support, you probably don't love yourself.

(you will perceive the good intentions of others as manipulative, and you will push them away as a defense mechanism).

•If you can't forgive another, it's because you cant figure out how to forgive yourself.

(same pattern)

Use this for anything. The key is accepting that you're only ever upset with your own imbalances. Take responsibility, then change.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

I'm coming out of the first integration period I've had in about 4 months. I think I was long overdue and I have the CFP guys to thank for it, they've been pushing me to new limits with both content creation and workload.

I woke up at dawn a little while ago at Trump Hotel in vegas, where I've been on a little stay-cation for the last 2 days to really dedicate myself to closing out this integration with full focus, while Tim is busy banging bitches at the crib. I shared some takeaways from my week-long process with the CFP skype group. Here's the two things i told them to expect from me in the coming weeks:

1). Less tolerance for that which i don't deem relevant for group
focus. To do that in a healthy way, i need to balance it with more
empathy than I've ever had before, in terms of how easy it is to become
distracted or confused in the learning process. Integration periods
work like this for me. I suffer thru distortion and inability to
bring context to knowledge, then , upon clarifying, it deepens my
empathy for the nature of confusion

2) More ways to "game" the CFP model. All of the stuff that is giving
us momentum as a team is a product of finding new challenges and
formats to make the learning process more fun. This also makes it
easier to trust yourself. More Gaming!

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

There are two major forms of personal imbalance that block a player from entering an accelerated growth pattern:

1) A foundational misunderstanding about the nature of equilibrium and how it works in multi-street betting games.

2) An insistence that he understands how the environment is behaving, when he actually does not.

When a player thinks he understands both of these, but actually doesn't, there is no potential for growth. Basically because there is no availability. The mind is full to the brim with arrogance. As a struggling grinder, it would be fairly logical (though extreme) to go all-in on the possibility that your entire understanding of the game is wrong. It's safer to be humble.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

@Thebing

A combination of Pio Solver nodelocking exploration, and toy-game theory.

Let's play a game: the first person to be able to express why bluffing thresholds shift dramatically from single street to multi-street betting games, wins. In other words: why is a balanced range able to bluff more on the flop than on the river? One sentence or bust.

I'd guess that 98% of the elite community cannot answer this directly. You have no business doing extensive Pio work until you understand this, because you'll misinterpret the meaning of so many of your findings.

ZenFish 8 years, 1 month ago

Because bluffing optimally on the last street is the same as winning the pot there with all hands that get bet.

KillEV 8 years, 1 month ago

Our bluffs have equity on earlier streets but not on the final (or only) street, so we can afford to bluff more earlier on because some hands will improve to the nuts and go into our value range.

faceoffland 8 years, 1 month ago

Because on river we know 2 more cards and 2 more action streets already taken previously and combining these adding the tendencies of the pools and that bluff catching on certain textures by villain is easier with a narrower range that goes to river than on flop.

kingLeon 8 years, 1 month ago

My current understanding is :
Cause bluffs from later street can be effectively treated as value on previous one.

Thebing72 8 years, 1 month ago

The balanced range has more robust equity with its bluffs on the flop with two cards left to come whereas on the river it does not.

CRAIBaby 8 years, 1 month ago

"why is a balanced range able to bluff more on the flop than on the river? One sentence or bust."

I believe the answer to this lies in a concept I recently explored that I like to call the modified MDF. The simplified conclusion of which is:

We can bluff the flop more, because villain is threatened by future barrels and therefore has to defend less

Greetings from Evan (one of your CFP applicants - notice me sensei!!! :p)

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Our bluffs have equity on earlier streets but not on the final (or
only) street, so we can afford to bluff more earlier on because some
hands will improve to the nuts and go into our value range.

this is part of the answer.

CRAIBaby 8 years, 1 month ago

Hmm... I am really curious now haha

Aren't there multiple reasons for why we can bluff the flop more than the river?

1 - Bluffs have equity on the flop so naturally some of them will not be bluffs anymore on later streets. As an example if we triple barrel all our draws on a wet board, we will automatically lose bluffs on the turn, and further on the river, as they realise their equity and become value. Therefore we have to bluff the flop more so that our river range is not weighted too much towards value.

2 - In a similar sense, we can bluff the flop more because if we stop categorizing into bluff and value, and only account for equities, a lot of our bluffs could be perhaps considered something value-esque (e.g. as an obvious example nfd+overs vs top pair). Then, from that angle, you don't actually have more "bluffs". Perhaps on earlier streets the concepts of bluffs and value are less of factor than on later streets, since essentially you are betting equities. On the river, your hands are either 0 or 100 equity, which makes categorization between bluffs and value more sensible.

3 - Additionally, from a mathematical perspective, value:bluff ratio on flop and turn can be calculated on more or less static boards when slightly altering the concept of MDF. We calculate River MDF by considering the last bet on the river and its sizing. If we would want to calculate turn MDF, we can do so by only looking at the turn bet and its sizing, but this would be irrelevant because we are ignoring the fact that villain (in this case) also has to defend river if we continue barreling. A modified MDF calculation would take this into account, and upon doing the maths, we can see that all of a sudden actual defence frequency of villain is lower than traditional MDF would suggest. This means that we can bluff more (because villain is threatened by later barrels in multi street betting games). (I went through the maths to confirm this and received the same v:b ratios as PIO on turns and flops).

Please correct me if I am wrong.

-Evan

Edit: Can't stop thinking about this. I think reason 2 is more of a philosophical viewpoint than anything. Perhaps the real reason is a combination between 1 and 3?

straightfloosh 8 years, 1 month ago

"why is a balanced range able to bluff more on the flop than on the river? One sentence or bust."

Shouldn't the question be "why does a balanced multistreet betting range have to bluff more on the flop than on the river" or more extensively Why does a balanced multistreet betting range have to bluff more on earlier streets in a poker game?

Isn't the answer: Because equity will shift the intrinsic nature of a hand (value hand, bluff hand, bluff hand in a b-x-b line, or SDV hand) in a betting range, thus preventing us from using a static bluffing range from one street to the next.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Theres a part of this answer that no one is stating directly. It has to do with the obligation of the bluffcatcher to realize equity. But it isn't as simple as the "threat" of a bet on a future street, or "our opponent not being able to realize his equity immediately". It could be stated like that if you already understand the inner workings of it, but that's not going to help someone else get there. Can anyone state it more directly for a noob? What is the additional obligation of the bluffcatcher with steets left to play? (an obligation that he does not have on the river). One sentence!!

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

A bet on a early street leverages the threat of future bets on the final street.

This is another answer that would be really good if deconstructed more. It's still too vague for a noob to grasp.

Specifically, what is the key differentiator that makes multi street bluffcatching different from single street bluffcatching. I gave a hint in the way that I posed the question in my last post.

WM2K 8 years, 1 month ago

Love this stuff! I definitely don t have a sound fundamental understanding of how ev is generated in these games. I ll have to let this sit as I don t think the answer is something I can force out.

CRAIBaby 8 years, 1 month ago

I thought you wanted it deep (I think the realizing equity statement earlier is the underlying reason for all of these).

In simple terms I think the obligation you are talking about is:

The bluffcatcher has to get to showdown (and therefore sometimes has to call future barrels)

(So if he wants to bluff catch on the flop, he would have to call turn and river, the implication then is that:

  • a) he cant do this because since he cannot realize his equity immediately through the flop call and therefore lets some of our bluffs override his equity, which also requires us to bluff wider to have enough bluffs on the river

  • b) that he has more difficulties defending flop bluffs (since he is threatened by turn and river barrels) allowing us to bluff more)

Evan

Dddogkillah 8 years, 1 month ago

In a perfectly polarized situation(not taking equity into consideration);
our betting betting range on river is required to be a higher % of value hands to keep our opponent indifferent to calling with his bluff catchers, on flop we need to construct our range with value hands, flop bluffs , turn bluffs, & river bluffs. On river our range consists of just value bets and river bluffs.

Douggyfr3sh 8 years, 1 month ago

why is a balanced range able to bluff more on the flop than on the river?

Because when our bluffs get called on the flop we don't lose the hand.

Kalupso 8 years, 1 month ago

Your river betting range makes villains bluff-catchers close to 0 EV OTR, so every time villain calls a turn bet and faces a river bet with a bluff-catcher he loses the amount he called OTT, and to make up for this you need to add enough turn bluffs that give up on the river to make up for the amount villain calls OTT and loses when facing a river bet. In a perfectly polar 2 street situation with 100% pot turn bet (giving villain 2:1 odds) your turn betting range needs give up 1/3 of the time OTR to make up for this.

The other point is that some of the time your bluffs improve to hands that can value bet the river and this means your bluffs can also be seen as fractional value bets OTT. Thus allowing you to add slightly more bluffs.

For flop I prefer to think about potential counter strategies rather than toy game ideas and math. Things like how strong your range is and number of bluffs on a variety of run-outs in all branches of your flop strategy also matters against a clairvoyant opponent.

Kalupso 8 years, 1 month ago

One thing that is often overlooked is that the equity of bluff-catchers against different types of hands in villains turn barrel range matters when bluff catching or picking a balanced amount of bluffs OTT, and this counteracts that effect of bluffs being able to improve. The strengt of these factors for fringe hands will vary depending on board texture and strategies.

JediMindTricks 8 years, 1 month ago

Let's play a game: the first person to be able to express why bluffing thresholds shift dramatically from single street to multi-street betting games, wins. In other words: why is a balanced range able to bluff more on the flop than on the river? One sentence or bust.

Bluffing combos on a single street like the flop that bet again on the turn are effectively flop value bets for that single street, same with the turn, allowing you to add more bluffs on the previous street.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

I'm going to take a shot at this in the way that I think is the least vague possible:

-Unless we're working with a perfectly polarized toy game model, bluffs have equity on earlier streets, and this allows the aggressor to bet wider while still remaining balanced. This was stated by someone.

  • Bluffcatchers have an obligation to get to free showdown when calling a bet on an earlier street.

This obligation is what requires the aggressor to prepare his early street betting range in a way that "gives up" frequently enough with bluffs over future streets that the bluffcatcher is held to indifference. If the bettor is following through too frequently with too strong of a range on future streets, he breaches the equilibrium and the bluffcatcher loses incentive to call --> exploits by overfolding earlier streets.

New Twitch stream starting now

JediMindTricks 8 years, 1 month ago

I'm going to take a shot at this in the way that I think is the least vague possible:
-Unless we're working with a perfectly polarized toy game model, bluffs have equity on earlier streets, and this allows the aggressor to bet wider while still remaining balanced. This was stated by someone.

This is not the reason why the aggressor can bet wider over a multi-street betting game versus a single street betting game. This only highlights the inherent flaw with the terms ‘bluff' and ‘value’ which are contrived. These terms are akin to units of measure such as meters which measure distance, or minutes which measure movement, all of which are great when used objectively but don’t actually exist in reality and are certainly not the guiding principles for behavior. At a fundamental level, there is EV.

⦁ Bluffcatchers have an obligation to get to free showdown when calling a bet on an earlier street.

This obligation is what requires the aggressor to prepare his early street betting range in a way that "gives up" frequently enough with bluffs over future streets that the bluffcatcher is held to indifference. If the bettor is following through too frequently with too strong of a range on future streets, he breaches the equilibrium and the bluffcatcher loses the incentive to call --> exploits by overfolding earlier streets.

These statements are just fundamentally incorrect. You're implying that the aggressor is concerned with the bluff catching players range while he constructs his own, but In reality, the aggressors only concern is to maximize his EV. This is the fundamental objective in poker and is done by betting the widest range possible at all times.

The real reason:

why bluffing thresholds shift dramatically from single street to multi-street betting games, In other words: why a balanced range is able to bluff more on the flop than on the river?

is that any time a combo can bet again on the next street it gains the chips that the bluffcatching player puts into the pot on that street which means the aggressor must add combos to his range that give up on the next street to the point that the bluff catching player is indifferent.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

@jedimindtrick

You're implying that the aggressor is concerned with the bluff catching players range while he constructs his own

This was never implied, you assumed it.

The reason you can win the effective pot at a higher frequency in a multi street toy game model is because you can bluff at a higher rate than single street, while remaining balanced. If aggressor fails to do this, bluffcatcher exploits. We're basically saying the same thing, you're just overcomplicating it for some reason by focusing on semantics to try and sound more intelligent. I'm concerned with someone actually being able to understand it.

Raaven 8 years, 1 month ago

If the opponent did call down all streets with his bluffcatcher, and we have bet a balanced range on flop, turn and riv. Do we win more then if we checked flop, checked turn and only bet a balanced rage on the river. Or does the value of betting a balanced range all the way comes from giving him the opportunity to make a mistake and fold on one of the earlier streets?

JediMindTricks 8 years, 1 month ago

@Hick Howard

We're basically saying the same thing, you're just overcomplicating it for some reason by focusing on semantics to try and sound more intelligent. I'm concerned with someone actually being able to understand it.

No, we're not saying the same thing. You've failed to say anything coherent and now you've turned to making your own assumptive accusations in an attempt to make up for your shortcomings.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Thought:

The moment that you think there's something real to be gained from accumulating intelligence is the moment you seal yourself off from real intelligence.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Thought:

In the long run, you're better off starting with an innacurate system that you trust, rather than an accurate system that you doubt. Stress is the poison of streamline growth and integration.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Check out my latest Twitch stream for some new perspectives on making mistakes along the journey. Also a sneak peek into a new concept I've been working on called "Volatility Profiling", I'll be going into depth on this in the future for a RIO Elite exclusive. It's probably the single most important metric you can integrate in order to raise your bluffcatching efficiency.

Link to stream

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

The moment an idea becomes worth something is the moment it shows the potential to completely jump paradigms. An idea can only do that thru the energy of inspiration.

4-Star_General 8 years, 1 month ago

Hi Nick, when I registered to your site I noticed there was a member showcase where basically you can view the users and then PM them. Did the feature disappeared?

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

@4star

We removed the Skype networking section of pokerdetox.com on the day of the Night Vision release in order to combat the pirating that goes on during new pack launches. There are guys that use our Skype networking page against us to privately message members to sell bootlegged copies. Currently the Night Vision main Skype group and its sub-groups are the active skype groups that my team and I facilitate and monitor. There are about 60 members in that group since it opened last month, access is exclusive to Night Vision pack buyers.

We're working on coming up with a more organized, secure method for promoting free Skype networking on-site. Unfortunately the bad guys ruined it for the time being.

Quido 8 years, 1 month ago

As I said, a private forum would be the best. I hope it is really coming in April because I am eager to join.

Deactivated User 8 years, 1 month ago

3000+ videos on this site, why would anyone give this guy 2/3 or 1/2 their profits? All the other NLH coaches on this site are far more successful players on Pokerstars than Nick.

kroellen 8 years, 1 month ago

I makes little sense to judge a poker coach by his results. Instead evaluate him in terms of what value he can bring to your game (or in Nicks case - your life). In contrast to common believe winnings and coaching abilities are not necessarily correlated.

It’s like judging a basketball coach by his results as a player - which obviously is a crappy metric. What matters is the difference he makes for the team.

Quido 8 years, 1 month ago

As far as I know Nick had some poor results on PS's 500/200 zoom many years ago over a smallish sample. Since then he has produced very impressive graphs, like the one from Bovada.

What you are low key saying now is that these are fake results because you'd never write this if you actually believed Nick accomplished a 10+ EVbb winrate at 10/20.

TimDog 8 years, 1 month ago

Is the intention of your statement to hurt Nick personally or do you really care about the struggling players that are interested in his program? If its the latter than how exactly do you know his results and why would his results on one specific site even matter to aspiring CFP players ?

I'd rather argue that without guidance and mentoring from an experienced mentor the 3000+ videos on this (or any) site wont help beginners that much. Its like watching nba wont make you better at playing basketball without proper training.

Samu Patronen 8 years, 1 month ago

why would anyone give this guy 2/3 or 1/2 their profits?

Because he cares.

Also, he has had students that started crushing after coaching.

And he has tons of free content out there so that you can find out the answer to your question for yourself.

screamdustry 8 years, 1 month ago

kroellen

I makes little sense to judge a poker coach by his results. Instead
evaluate him in terms of what value he can bring to your game (or in
Nicks case - your life). In contrast to common believe winnings and
coaching abilities are not necessarily correlated. It’s like judging a
basketball coach by his results as a player - which obviously is a
crappy metric. What matters is the difference he makes for the team.

I think that you made pretty poor comparison.

Basketball is physical sport. You need to be in better physical shape than 99.9% of humans to compete at high level. Also, to be a succesfull player you need to learn a lot of mechanical things that are requiring thousands of repetitions- such as 3pt shooting, free throw shooting, dribble, 1on1 defending.

In disciplines like chess or poker its whole a lot diffrent. Skillset is coming more from understanding of a game, not from physicality or trained mechanicall skills.

So i would think that in poker it matters a lot if your coach is winning or not.
Still, i dont think that because someone is good poker player, he's instantly a good coach. I just think that its impossible to be a good poker coach if you're mediocare poker player, as opposite to basketball.

Cory Mikesell 8 years, 1 month ago

@ Screamdustry: I regularly played in the same 10/20nl games as Nick on Bovada and am also a chess master and taught chess for years. I've also been a student on the receiving end of poor coaching. There is ABSOLUTELY a difference between playing chess or poker at a high level and teaching them. Sometimes those skills overlap naturally, but virtually anyone I've ever encountered who has achieved success as a coach in these disciplines has taken time to separately cultivate that skill. Nick happens to be both a very tough player and has put in the reps to become a high level coach.

Depolarizing 8 years, 1 month ago

screamdustry

I too play 1knl and am a chess master. I think what reStacks is trying to say is that there is a difference between being able to play chess/poker at a high level and coaching at a high level. They are not mutually exclusive, but there's a big difference.

Some people take pride in their theoretic knowledge of the game. In chess, it could be that the coach is brilliant at analyzing the position in a casual or coaching setting. However in tournament play, the nerves and pressure get to him and he is not able to analyze as well. Same for poker. Just because someone is slightly losing (I don't even think Nick is losing? isn't he a massive winner?), does not mean that they don't have immensely valuable insight into the game. Again, not saying this is even true for Nick's case, but some coaches may not have the emotional stability to grind out hundreds of thousands of hands, but are still brilliant at their understanding.

Lastly, coaches are often very valuable for their insight in one specific area in the game as a whole. We'd all love to have complete mastery of every aspect of the game , but this is just not feasible for basically everyone. In chess, even the top pros hire "lesser" players to train them on an aspect of the game they are not as competent in. Perhaps the most famous, in chess, is the International master Dvoretsky. He wasn't even a GM, and he was probably one of the most famous chess coaches in the Russian school of chess for his brilliant mastery of the endgame.

You could liken this to a coach being very skilled at exploitation, or hand reading, or tilt control, etc.

Quido 8 years, 1 month ago

Depolarizing
He has posted only winning graphs but he has some older hands on his PS screen name 'MadAgenda' were he was losing over a smallish sample in the higher zoom games. I am pretty sure he is a winner overall, but the trolls always come out of the woodwork to badmouth him.

Depolarizing 8 years, 1 month ago

Quido,

Ahhh I see. People are gonna say whateve they want, but I think the importance is that Nick is doing a great job of showing what kind of coach he is, and the students will naturally gravitate towards that.

Cory Mikesell 8 years, 1 month ago

Totally agree with depolarizing and his choice of Dvoretsky is an apt one as well. There is a language to great teaching, a vocabulary for analyzing the metacognative hand history. There is little value in providing patchwork solutions such as "x/r the turn in this spot was a mistake" or in chess "this move was a mistake because it gave up the initiative". As a teacher you have to train yourself to see so deeply into your students thought process that you can anticipate the underlying flaws in logic that led to those mistakes and will lead to other seemingly unrelated mistakes. While that skill has some applications to playing poker in the area of opponent modeling, it's mostly one that has to be cultivated away from the table. This is the skill that separates those that do and those that can also teach.

dirk_diggler 8 years, 1 month ago

First of all : I am not coached by Nick in any way .
It is quite obv that you searched for Nick's result on Star PTR site before making this post .
Nick stated 2 or 3 times in his October Vids that those results are old and he uses a different approach wasn't as good as he is nowadays .
So before making such a post you should a) look at the dates and b) maybe look into some Vids of the person you criticize.
I can tell you from my own experience that being a good winning reg not qualifies for a good Coach. I was in two CFP Programs one of a midstakes Winning Reg and one of Highstakes regs which doesn't improve my game a lot .
If you qualify a Coach by being a Winner on Pokerstars this might be the wrong approch in the frist place . Maybe you should consider playing on a site which gets you a better WR / is easier to play and then it doesn't matter if your Caoch beats Stars .
And last if you don't believe in Nick's abilities as a Coach or are biased by former experience(as I was) just play 100k Hands following his approach like he suggests last year several times and see where this leads to . For me (after 50k hands) I am a 5 bb Winner on NL10 Stars which i couldn't achieve in any CFP or by my own

Deactivated User 8 years, 1 month ago

What are you guys smoking? $20,000.00 out of $30,000.00 go to Nick if by some miracle a "student" can win that amount is seriously hilarious. There are plenty of great videos on no limit holdem on this site. Like anyone needs more help playing no limit.

Disharmonist 8 years, 1 month ago

I think that 20k is pretty expensive per se. But considering that he only coaches confirmed losing players, and as far as I understood only net won will go to Nick this is a good deal for said players. I dont know how much video coaching can vary in impact comparded to personal coaching but the later will be able to spot leaks and weaknesses that the learning player is obvlivious of. Yet, I do doubt that you can completly turn around a losing player into a winning player by a margin that justifys a 20k fee.

ZenFish 8 years, 1 month ago

For a losing micro player who isn't able to make it, despite all the coaching material on the market, just reaching the lifetime $30k mark is the dream come true. The value in going from perpetually losing to winning at a clip high enough to consider playing for a living is huge.

This isn't a program for fine-tuning regulars to win 2bb/100 more, it's about lifting losers out of the rake trap and making them winners. I suspect some of these guys will have their life paths completely changed and living their poker dream when they are done.

Why don't you ask Nick's students how they feel about the process?

Upspiral 8 years, 1 month ago

Disharmonist Copernicus

Guys, how often have you seen a loosing player becoming a winning one (over a decent sample obv)? I would assume that the percentage is less than 5%. I think that a looser that becomes a winner in poker, is the exception to the rule. Maybe you're both crushers and you don't feel how big of an achievement this is for someone, but for the rest of us(at least me) it's a damn big thing.

As one of his students, I want to say that with those 20k, which seem expensive to you, you don't get technical coaching only(because you mentioned the videos of this site). You have a guy - that knows his job, delivers high quality and supports his students like fuck - to serve for both as coach and mentor with an approach that crushes the mental and technical aspect of coaching.

Unfortunately I've had coaching from a lot of different people, and all of them combined, can't deliver what Nick does.

Aleksandra ZenFish 8 years, 1 month ago

I am having trouble understanding why there is a discussion about someones profits or price for coaching
Can set it to 1 m if you want, person A sets price, person B deems that valuable to him/her, they are both sane and adult, why are other people discussing it????

Disharmonist 8 years, 1 month ago

This thread advertises Nick Howard´s product and services. This is fine, anyone can deliberatly join his venture or buy his products if he or she believes them to be helpful. However this doesnt make Mr Howard´s business model immune to direct critique and as a free forum we have to accept oppositional opinions.

Aleksandra ZenFish 8 years, 1 month ago

I disagree.
When some people are doing business that doesn't concern usually anyone but people involved.
For example, you see a shop on a street selling something for outrageous prices and people going in and buying stuff.
No-one sane is gonna go out of that shop to stand with a poster saying : it is pricey don't shop here.
On other hand, other shop owners with their own interests in having these customers in THEIR shop might hire people to say so, or hand out fliers with various things said.
People do not discuss other people business, unless their own interests are involved.
What is your interest, Disharmonist? :-)
Awww... or you are just a good guy taking care of people? :-)
Ill state my interest: I enjoy reading the thread without distractions from people who seem to have other interests then thread itself.

Disharmonist 8 years, 1 month ago

I wouldnt stand with a poster saying anything as it is waste of time. I would just say tos omeone who brings up the topic that I dislike the prizing of the product. And reversly noone would defend this shop owner unless he is related to him, has financial interest (by for example holding shares) or having purchased their prdouct personnally and are happy with it. Since you are not his students, why defend the product so fiercly?

Deactivated User 8 years, 1 month ago

Coaching for Profits is a terrible deal. It's a massive freerolll for the "coach". You lose its on you. You win for some time period, pay out half, lose it all back, he's still a winner and you are back to being a loser. Nick CAN NOT teach you anything that isnt covered in all the videos on this site. You can also ask all the coaches any question you want under their videos. This CFP shit for astronomical fees is a complete joke.

Thebing72 8 years, 1 month ago

1/2 of your posts on RIO are in this blog to bash Nick and his program. Why is that?

There is complete transparency over how the CFP program works. It's really up to the player to decide if its worth it. Clearly it's not for you...

Logan Williams 8 years, 1 month ago

Lol a similar thing like this happened on Twitch a couple weeks ago...
Nick addressed it perfectly back then: "I guess when you've got haters for no reason, it means you've had success."

Douggyfr3sh 8 years, 1 month ago

When I was in college I took a course called "Innovation Engineering". I was lucky enough to be in the flagship course, which was taught by a billionaire alumni who was at the time charging companies something like 100k per week to work with them (seriously). He constantly drilled into our heads the idea that the sure fire way to succeed in a market is to offer something both meaningful and unique. He also really drove it home for us that the unique part is most important. Nick's training model is very unique in the industry and at this point there seems to be a lot of data to back it up, so it's clearly also very meaningful. Not sure where all the hate comes from, but am pretty sure that what nick is offering has immense value.

kroellen 8 years, 1 month ago

@NickHoward

Hi Nick,
I found your Twitch channel recently - and it made me resub for RIO Elite to see your content here which have not dissapointed.

I’m curious to understand more about your learning model and realised that I might understand it better if you could please answer the following thought experiment.

Lets say a new poker game gets introduced on Pokerstars. It's different to other poker-variants enough that no one really has an edge regardless of their expertise in other variants.
As such, everyone practically starts from scratch. For what ever reason, you are incentivised so that your goal is to want to become as good as you can as fast as possible.
However, no solver or other useful software are available.
How would you approach this game in order to reach your goal?

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

There's only so much i could say to a hater before I'd fall into the trap of compensating for things that I don't feel I need to defend. My career is transparent. My poor results occurred in the past. I've designed my public content to convey the progression of my journey, and I'm confident that many of the people who take the time to digest it will be able to integrate it in a way that provides them with value. The rest will always judge. It's just the nature of things. With that said, the following is highly relevant to the overarching theme, which is obviously much bigger than me.

There are a growing number of people who are becoming intuitively aware that outward judgement is self-defining. For those of you who are like me, and in need of a more logical explanation, I'll break it down:

What you judge exposes you, and there is no other reality to your judgement. Even if all the evidence seems to point in the direction of your judgement being right, you were unfortunately wrong from the jump, simply by misapplying your original focus. Just like a Pio model where you botched the inputs, you never had a chance. Those who bother to judge are misapplying their focus in ways that cause inefficiencies in their overall goal toward happiness. Their poor starting focus inevitably filters into the broader sections of their life-gametree. Severe cases result in toxic unhappiness and self victimization. Mild cases result in general bitchiness and complaining. You can't win from here. You won't secure happiness from these perspectives. The reason why has roots in a very structural level of psychology, and this only becomes clear from subtler levels of balance -- not a textbook. The core wisdom of those more balanced levels, counterintuitively, does not appear "logical" to the less balanced mind, and that is the reason why the barrier to entry to more balanced levels requires such humility. Beyond a certain threshold of balance, the mind gains the ability to understand a certain fundamental, or universal wisdom:

Direct engagement with a problem is not an intelligent way to arrive
at a solution.

Einstein expressed this with his quote:

problems can't be solved from the same level of consciousness that
they arose

It took me 8 years to understand that quote. You can't "get it", because it doesn't make sense. But it is sensible, and that can be proven through repetitive application of what it's suggesting:

The key is a shift in focus from direct engagement with an obstacle, to the possibility of a solution in the direction of the unknown. Think: offensive vision, experimentation, and practical application. Not coincidentally, those are the pillars of my training model. My guess is that many of you are drawn to it because it resonates with your own core wisdom.

This method of problem solving (shifting focus) is the only way I've found to hyper-accelerate into more balanced states of consciousness. The rest is confusion, held together by arrogance.

That being said, the confusion is completely understandable due to the intensity of the distortion that occurs during the iterations of that balancing process. As someone who is deeply connected to the intensity and pain of distortional confusion, I will never judge you. Judging you would only reactivate (in me) old patterns of self-hatred and a non-forgiveness that I don't wish to revisit at this stage in my development on any sort of regular basis. I'll speak from a higher degree of personal opinion here :

There is no greater pain than going backwards. That being said, there is no greater passion than to remain connected to the struggle with those who are eager to ascend. At least this is how I feel at this stage. Deeply inspired to connect to those who are willing. It's why I'm moving into CFP wholeheartedly in 2017.

I want to be clear. I care very little if you follow me. I care less if you believe me. What I care infinitely about is your potential. Don't bother wasting your time wondering why I care, that would just be another judgement -- a misapplication of your focus. Realize that whether or not you will realize your potential depends on your ability to prioritize your focus. Prioritizing your focus will require you to trade fear-based immaturity for a devotion to self-understanding. That is the single biggest choice. Once your make it, close your eyes and prepare to be swallowed through the black hole of the unknown. Emerge, with new vision, and new upgrades. Learn to live from that level of trust and humility. Rinse and repeat. Real humlity is trust. Real confidence is humility. You know nothing. I know nothing. This is how you gain relevant access to spontaneous understanding. Be ok with having it in the moment it's requested, instead of on command. You will become available to know that which is of lesser and lesser assumption, and you will no longer waste time judging others. You will find a way to honor life from the simplest of relevance: we are here, and there is much to explore. May we follow our purest incentives.

Focus.

Disharmonist 8 years, 1 month ago

There is good advice that the productive mind seeks to improve it´s personal situation using the tools it has available while maintaining a healthy disregard for the outside world when it takes away mental capacity.

The problem is that within online communication the critical person is labeled as "Hater" and as such attributed as overall negative person. You would wanna conclude that the judgemental person is insecure, unfocused or generally cynical and mostly envious of the success of others. The fallacy begins when one tries to conclude and analyze the complexity of a human´s personality from far away based upon 3l lines someone wrote. Thus, the judgement can only determine the actual words being written. These can be judgemental, crude or cynical, however they can at best be indicators of a person´s true persona, also considering that many ppl behave differently on the Internet than in real life. You cannot be assured that someone is unable to be productive towards their goals, unhappy or unsuccesful because he or she has a negative opinion about one of the many concerining topics in life.

Pure and definite insight is not achievable as a philosophical concept. It is the doubt that has made someone change in some way or the other, not the proclaimed comfortness of a perceived certainty. This certainty might just be highly subjective and far from objective truth.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

kroellen

I heard Tim Ferris say something cool about approaching new games. He said something like this:

"The first thing I would do is observe the trends that everyone
follows, but that they are not required to follow by the rules of the
game. My strategy would be to deviate from those zones first".

^I'd do something like this. Some stuff is standard for a reason. Other stuff is waiting to be challenged for its credibility.

Deactivated User 8 years, 1 month ago

PIO Unlocked
$2,000.00

Night Vision (PDNV)
$1,650.00

PDMG
$1,000.00

Nick's gone the money hungry scammer route. He's the new Tri Nguyen or Gordon Gekko. Dont get taken by him. The Tony Robbins talk is all part of his persona and con. Money is the only thing he wants. You will have huge regrets if you buy his worthless packs.

ZenFish 8 years, 1 month ago

Funny you should post that, I was just sitting with my morning coffee doing some deep texture analysis work based on Pio Unlocked 2. ;-)

I'm extremely happy with the courses, and I think I am qualified to speak, having 12 years of poker experience, playing for a living for the last 11 of them, and doing science on Uni before that (the material in the packs stands up to scientific scrutiny).

That aside, shelling out several $k for coaching material is of course not something anyone should do without checking the credibility of the source. I was aware of the Pio Unlocked courses when they came out, but I didn't buy them until a few months ago when I had gotten convinced they would be worth an investment.

I have contributed to the Night Vision Pack by beta-testing it, I'm currently working with Nick and the rest of the NV team to extend it, and I can wholeheartedly recommend that Package as well. I have zero financial interest in any of the packs, so my opinion is independent of how well they sell.

Kalupso 8 years, 1 month ago

Food for thought and maybe why the discussion has taken this course:

The Backfire Effect

The Misconception: When your beliefs are challenged with facts, you alter your opinions and incorporate the new information into your thinking.

The Truth: When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.

Source and more depth: https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/06/10/the-backfire-effect/

P.S. Don't take the wording "challenged with facts" too literally because I don't think what Copernicus is writing is 100% facts and neither the counter arguments. It's just paragraphed directly from the source.

alexalmighty 8 years, 1 month ago

@Nick

Thanks for everything, keep it going!
Some questions:
Is it about time I stop hoping for a call back?
By the looks of it, the answer is yes, so I need to explore some other options -> some time ago you announced the packs will be available for a monthly subscription in the next few days, is this still happening?

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Disharmonist

I disagree from experience. Certain things stop registering as beneficial once you reach a certain baseline level of understanding. Meaning you will basically never stoop below that level again, because it feels ridiculous. Just like when you were a kid and you decided it was worth it to stop shitting your pants. Just like how last years C-game is this years F-game, there are certain plays you just no longer make.

If you take the time to read a post that you disagree with, and then rationalize that it's worth your time to sit down and write a response attempting to invalidate it with negativity, you are still shitting your pants like an infant.

If you're down-voting content (on any platform), the probability that you're a person who struggles with productive focus in many other areas of life shoots through the roof. Because it's that big of a leak. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of game-theory-life. You don't get how it works, and you will not be able to improve until you clarify that redirecting the focus away from negativity is the only way to excel.

Dismissal is the highest form of rejection, because it's the most intelligent. If you really want to accelerate toward your desires, dismiss anything you don't see value in, and move on as fast as possible. The time it takes you to blame and complain is literally stealing your potential. The ability to efficiently direct your focus is the single most controllable variable on the upward spiral of your journey. When you judge others you literally wear a sign on your chest that says "I am unable to effectively navigate my life". So change. It doesn't require you to be smart or clever, it just requires maturity. You just wake up one day and decide.

Disharmonist 8 years, 1 month ago

Whatever. You overanalyze. And you expose the irony of your approach when you engage trying to prove anyone wrong instead of "focusing" on what matters as you suggest. Do you try to help me by comparing my intellect as "shitting in pants" or just try to have the last word? I never downvoted your content nor did I attack you ad hominem. Whatever good luck, have fun.

screamdustry 8 years, 1 month ago

Disharmonist
Normally i would spend like 20 minutes figuring out how to insult you in a most clever way, but i guess i would also shit my pants. So i just leave it as it is, figuring out why im so triggered by how you're not even trying to challange smallest things laying down outside your zone, yet still wasting time for discussion.

Depolarizing 8 years, 1 month ago

I think there is a lot of truth to what Nick is saying. There really is no real reason argue whether Nick's coaching is worth it, if he's a good coach, etc. In the end, the student will decide for themselves if they believe it's worth it for them. I think the most important part is to "write a response attempting to invalidate it with negativity".

There's absolutely nothing wrong if with a post expressing disagreement if there is some constructive benefit to be gained. In poker, if you disagree with a line, or an idea, and you respond to it stating why and asking questions, both parties can benefit with potentially new ways of thinking. However, just responding with "nah you suck at poker, clearly spew", is obviously not helpful to anyone.

If you were a prospective student of Nick's, you would obviously do your own research, probably contact him, ask questions and ultimately decide if his CFP package is for you. If you feel like it wouldn't benefit you, that's obviously ok. However, just coming in the thread attempting to discredit Nick without any interest in his actual coaching services is just kind of ridiculous.

Depolarizing 8 years, 1 month ago

I think there is a lot of truth to what Nick is saying. There really is no real reason argue whether Nick's coaching is worth it, if he's a good coach, etc. In the end, the student will decide for themselves if they believe it's worth it for them. I think the most important part is to not "write a response attempting to invalidate it with negativity".

There's absolutely nothing wrong if with a post expressing disagreement if there is some constructive benefit to be gained. In poker, if you disagree with a line, or an idea, and you respond to it stating why and asking questions, both parties can benefit with potentially new ways of thinking. However, just responding with "nah you suck at poker, clearly spew", is obviously not helpful to anyone.

If you were a prospective student of Nick's, you would obviously do your own research, probably contact him, ask questions and ultimately decide if his CFP package is for you. If you feel like it wouldn't benefit you, that's obviously ok. However, just coming in the thread attempting to discredit Nick without any interest in his actual coaching services is just kind of ridiculous.

Disharmonist 8 years, 1 month ago

"But considering that he only coaches confirmed losing players, and as far as I understood only net won will go to Nick this is a good deal for said players. I dont know how much video coaching can vary in impact comparded to personal coaching but the later will be able to spot leaks and weaknesses that the learning player is obvlivious of"
This is the essence of my previous post. I said coaching can spot leaks and flaws in mindsets better than a video because it involves more layers of communication, adding that 20k $ dollars is a lot of money.

We all like stories where someone made it from the bottom to the the top or at least to a level the player is proud of.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

Disharmonist

I wasn't even pointing my last post at you, i just wrote it as a general follow up to my previous post. There's no irony when I give a counter-suggestion on this subject. I do it because i see a lot of benefit in bringing context to WHY forum trolling and conflict-prone behavior is futile. If someone took the time to explain it to me earlier on in a way that made sense, it would've seriously improved the quality of my life. If even one person integrates what I'm pointing to with regard to optimizing their focus by eliminating judgement, it is more than worth the time it takes me to write it.

Nick Howard 8 years, 1 month ago

I randomly came across this fortune card during my vacation in Santa Monica this week. Here's what it says on the back:

If you subdue yourself and return to the practice of what is right..
if one day you achieve self-control and return to what is right.. the
world will acknowledge you as a person at his best. But being the best
must come from you yourself. One cannot acquire it from others. Look
at nothing which is contrary to what is right, listen to nothing that
is contrary to what is right, speak nothing contrary to what is right,
and do nothing contrary to what is right. You will then be a person
at his best.

That Zoltar really knew how to focus.

Deactivated User 8 years, 1 month ago

How generous of you. All of Nick's private courses have no value at all. Nick Howard isnt some poker genius, he's a fraud. Anyone want to buy my hard copy of "Let There Be Range." It's signed personally autographed by the great Tri Nguyen (Daily Variance Publishing). I paid $1750.00 for it. I'll accept $200 monthly payments.

JCJordypants 8 years ago

I thought Max Rofls wrote "Let There Be Triple Range Merge"? That's a steal letting it go for so cheap, I heard it cost $8,000 and is only 6 pages!

Deactivated User 8 years, 1 month ago

Getting gullible suckers money is what you stand for. Super expensive coaching and video packs show Nick's true colors. Poker Detox is the Nick Howard Enrichment Project.

Nick Howard 8 years ago

Thought:

It's not that preflop doesn't matter, it's that it matters very
little until you stop leaking postflop. That being said, tightening
your preflop ranges is generally the best way to immediately
counteract postflop spew, and in that way preflop matters again.

My approach to CFP is to throw guys into the deep end right away. Meaning I make them open up their preflop ranges substantially and play 5,000 hands. I'm a strong believer that if you're playing tighter than 35/25 on the climb to high stakes, you're leaving a lot of easy money on the table, especially at SSNL and micros. Before dropping him in the deep end, I move the student down 2 limits, give him the wider preflop ranges, some simplified postflop line metrics, and permission to splash around. Worst case scenario he drops 10 buyins at a limit he doesn't care about. Best case scenario he goes on a short heater and gains confidence. No big deal, poker is fun again.

My reasoning:

By putting a player initially outside of his comfort zone and forcing him into more marginal posftlop spots, I can generate a faster, stronger context as to where he struggles to apply the standard metrics of a winning system, and also what his mental game imbalances are. Formulating context is everything in coaching. From there, I tailor a specific lesson path to address his biggest leaks first, and scale on.

I think most of coaching is about simple systems and metrics that have been distilled from massive amounts of data research. When the system gets to the level where it's broken down into simplified pattern recognition, there's great potential for streamline winrate acceleration without sacrificing a depth of understanding. The perfect storm.

There's a.new wave of CFP applications in process and it's a month long thing with 3 rounds of callbacks. To be honest I'm probably only taking 4 new guys for this fleet. Applications were fierce as usual, but I'm really focusing on not overextending the program too early. If you're waiting for the second round callbacks, you'll know by the 20th. Good luck to all who are involved!

screamdustry 8 years ago

I'm a strong believer that if you're playing tighter than 35/25 on
the climb to high stakes, you're leaving a lot of easy money on the
table, especially at SSNL and micros.

I just wonder if this post is indirectly responding to new Sauce video at NL50, because your timing is really on point.

In the case if its not: Sauce with his approach is basically the other way around - watching his latest vid its pretty transparent that he belives strongly that the best way to get throught micro is just nitting it up, playing something like 20/16. It is because rake is pretty wild. Rake is basically a theme of his 70min video.

I have to say that i tried diffrent approaches, in last 6months i played from 25/20 to 35/27. I was quite inspired after watching your first October streams in 2016 and modeled my preflop game after yours, played 60k hands with it and failed. Not completely, i just havent seen the diffrence of extra winrate that was supposed to be coming to me from exploiting opponents preflop tightness and then applying 1/3 strat OTF.

Obviously, my experience has very little value as a evidence, because even im not sure if i havent misplayed postflop spots playing wider ranges to just neglect the diffrence that was coming from my preflop adjustments.

What convinced me to get back to tighter preflop stats was checking top winners at NL25/NL50 PokerStars from 6kk sample. Guy who was winning the most (8bb at 160k+ sample) was putting 22/16 pre. It literally blowed my mind. Guys at the top were usually meeting range of 26-20 VPIP nd 20-16 PFR.

You're pretty big about keeping it 'simple', simplifing our game in order to save mental energy during game. Im still open to be convinced otherwise, but i feel like playing 35/25 at enviroments where we pay around 80-100bb/1k for rake, is just wasting mental energy and overall not a greatest way to maximize hourly at micros/small stakes. Now, id rather put additional 2-3 tables or extra zoom entry.

PS. I hope that you'll open new blog thread really soon. It usually takes me like 30secs to load the whole page, damn.

Dddogkillah 8 years ago

That wsa kind of interesting good point scream, I wonder if any of Nicks CFP guys are grinding PSzoom?

Disharmonist 8 years ago

Upping VPIP inevitably increases entropy as it widens the kind of scenarios you will face, therefore making things more complicated. What its good for it taht you increase the decisions you need to make (despite from folding pre ofc) which can enlarge your learning curve as you get used to more different scenarios. But more decisions = more opportunities to mess up as well.

screamdustry 8 years ago

screamdustry Out of my datamined PS hands from 50 and 25NL the
biggest winners played 27/20 on average so I am quite skeptical about
you saying playing 22 is the ideal for micros.

How did you conclude that i said 22 is ideal for micros?
I was operating with 6kk hands from Jan/Feb 2017 having 100-150k for most frequent grinders. Your database seems to be way larger, would be cool to see top winners from your 'opponents' tab.

WM2K 8 years ago

Obv looking at what the biggest winners are doing is good. However keep in mind that there is a bias in this sort of work as the truest of crushers will move out of micros/small stakes.

Samu Patronen 8 years ago

Obv looking at what the biggest winners are doing is good. However keep in mind that there is a bias in this sort of work as the truest of crushers will move out of micros/small stakes.

That is an excellent point. Anyone who is willing to put in the hours of studying and playing into poker will probably take a shot at higher stakes pretty quickly. :P

Quido 8 years ago

I am not sure how will that help though but here you go.
https://i.gyazo.com/4aef696b4cbacce0233068379a344103.png
Unfortunately there are few problems, their EVbb/100 is not shown because HEM does not let us change the stats in the tab so we'd have to look into each of the players individually, not to mention the win rates are skewed by variance and also that even these players, though the biggest winners, are certainly not playing anywhere close to the 'ideal'. There is a reason they are still grinding 25 and 50NL.

screamdustry 8 years ago

Well, guys, i would tend to think that if someone is putting constant 8bb at high sample at NL50, the reason why he's still not moving up is rather more mental than technical.

And i dont even think its rare that guys are sitting at limits for way too long and are playing 2-3 limits lower than they should.

Thanks Quido, wanted it more because of curiousity more than for any other reasons.

Nick Howard 8 years ago

I just wonder if this post is indirectly responding to new Sauce video at NL50, because your timing is really on point

Hey, no I didn't see that video. I think the simplest way to put it (like you guys stated) is that there's a threshold:

once you're playing well enough postflop, there's increasing incentive to play wider pre. Based on how much money I see micro players literally bleeding off on late streets with poor call efficiency and overplays, I would find it really hard to believe that rake alone was able to pin a strong player to a 20/16 strategy. There's just too many mistakes occurring in large pots for that to make sense.

Nick Howard 8 years ago

Jumping on Twitch in 10 minutes. For all the insistent bastards who always seem to know why they haven't been crushing, but still aren't, this one's for you.

LInk to stream

Mescarl 8 years ago

Hey, Nick, what do you think are the best tools/methods to work on one's cognitive dissonances and how to stop rationalizing your own biases, weather on tilt, or not?

mike 8 years ago

I haven't been around much lately so just catching up on all the drama.

Haters gona hate but it doens't seem like a bad idea for a coach to post last 12 months of results?

might make for an interesting prop bet/twitch steam to see if nick can beat 50NLH 6m playing at least 35/25 game?

Byul 8 years ago

Hi Nick,

I want to ask - what is stopping somebody from purchasing a pack on a monthly subscription and then just cancelling after a month. I know it's cynical but it's also a rational decision for somebody with limited finances.

What would stop somebody doing that?

screamdustry 7 years, 7 months ago

This blog used to be most inspiring and valuable piece created at RIO forums.

Its really sad to see that it really took like one troll and few other lost people to discourage Nick from creating public content.

I think im up to read this whole blog like 3rd time from cover to cover. Bumping it up, so new members could see how awesome this place once was.

Nick Howard 7 years, 3 months ago

Once a day until the new year I will post a favorite entry from this blog. These are the ones that gave me chills down my spine for reasons I can’t quite explain. Much of what I consider to be truly intelligent is counterintuitive and even paradoxical. My advice is to feel instead of analyze. Accessing perspectives that spark a new feeling state has mysteriously proven to be my most accelerative tool, and I wrote much of this blog from that place. I hope it sparks an excitement or clarity you may have lost long ago, and may you head into 2018 with clear eyes and full hearts (stole that).

Love, forgiveness, and self awareness ����
-Nick

Nick Howard 7 years, 3 months ago

I'm not good at much. I can't wrap your Christmas present, and I still tie my shoes the bunny-ears way. But I have other traits. I can teach a loser to win. I can show a boy how to trust himself. I can check-mate the mind until it wants to change. I can love a stranger.

My whole life I had the people closest to me say that I would never amount to much if I didn't become better at more. They said my limited skills would prevent me from becoming a man.

I punted that model on faith. On logic. A man plays his strengths and accepts his weaknesses. He channels his passion in the midst of adversity. He effects real change. Life offers you the choice to polarize into love or fear. A man is brave enough to love.

Christmas is my favorite day.

Depolarizing 7 years, 3 months ago

TIL that there is apparently another way to tie your shoes other than the bunny-ears way. A lot of your posts have inspired me to make a change in various aspects of my life, from working out more, to spending less time doing ineffective and inattentive study. Thank you!

Nick Howard 7 years, 3 months ago

Volume is really overrated. This isn't excuse not to play hands, it's an invitation to hold yourself to a more inclusive standard of balance. When things are left unhandled in your personal life, they filter into your game. You become inaccurate, bias, distorted. Hands played from here will offer diminished returns.

Give attention to the circumstances and relationships in your life that are demanding balance. Make them a priority and don't rescind. Know that you're increasing your winrate by handling your stress, and know that you can handle your stress just by responding to life from integrity. Play half the volume with double the winrate, and close the books every month with results that you're proud of, on and off the table. Study more when you're running bad. Help your girlfriend handle shit when she's overwhelmed. Refuse to engage in negativity. Steady yourself in an inner balance that is unchallenged by the winds of life. Then sit down and play your fucking heart out.

sauloCosta10 7 years, 3 months ago

Yeah, honestly Mods/Rio staff, this behaviour is beyond ridiculous and you should have done something ages ago. Why haven't you? Don't you care at all about your forums? Is this acceptable behaviour?

sauloCosta10 7 years, 3 months ago

It's impossible that Rio staff hasn't seen this, so they chose not to do anything. And based on what? That he is just expressing his opinion on a public forum? Please explain to me what is the argument that makes it ok for someone to publicly accuse another of fraud and scam without no real evidence, while degrading the level of the forums and constantly annoying everyone that follows one of the most (if not the most) relevant pros in the rio team? Why the hell is this someting we have to accept? Seriously enlighten me cuz I can't understand.

sauloCosta10 7 years, 3 months ago

If you think this Copernicus issue has crossed any reasonable line, please like the thread below and/or make a comment so we can show Rio staff that your users understand that something needs to be done.

Thread

And I'm sorry for doing this Nick. I know you have been handling this issue in a different way, but this doesn't affect just you, it affects everyone that comes here to read the (awesome) things you post and I just can't accept this or simply ignore it.

Deactivated User 7 years, 3 months ago

This post is absolutely preposterous. Do you not believe in free speech? This "respected pro's" independently tracked results show hes a losing player. He's selling his own private courses to RIO members for a total of $4650.00 He proposed more courses for another $3000. Hes now soliciting RIO members to give him 60% of their winnings for 730 days for private coaching up $300,000 + $25,000.00 for mental coaching. Are we in the twilight zone? Is this for real? Where does RIO stand on any of this????? I think Ive been more than reasonable, seriously!

I think I am Batman, protecting the children of RunItOnce. My intentions are good!

Nick Howard 7 years, 3 months ago

•The best way to counter a seller is to stop buying from him.
•The best way to counter a competitor is to build a better product.
•The best way to go nowhere is to complain about the quality of others.

throwback 4 copernicus today bc he needs love and has genuinely made me a stronger person.

Nick Howard 7 years, 3 months ago

The moment that you think there's something real to be gained from accumulating intelligence is the moment you seal yourself off from real intelligence.

Nick Howard 7 years, 3 months ago

A conductor’s authority rests on two things: the orchestra’s confidence in the conductor’s insightful knowledge of the whole score, and the orchestra’s faith in the conductor’s good heart, which seeks to inspire everyone to make music that is excellent, generous, and sincere.

Nick Howard 6 years, 10 months ago

It's really funny too look back on the title that I chose for this blog, I wasn't aware of how paradoxical it was at the time. No one actually achieves higher balance. The more balanced you become, the less you can consciously identify with it as "your" achievement. It's the greatest vanishing act in the world, and it goes on forever! (makes popcorn).

Everyday 6 years, 10 months ago

Reminds me of the Authenticity Paradox:
We want to learn authenticity. We want to react authentically. Authenticity is something we want to get. We treat being authentic as something we have, as opposed to something we are.
Which can keep us from actually developing this trait, since we’re trying to attain something that, by definition, we already have.
If we define authenticity as simply being your true self, then we really shouldn’t have to look for it in the first place. If we’re looking for it, then we’ve already lost it.

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