Quietly

Hi Snowy, it's good to see you've kept accurate statistics and you're trying to be honest with yourself.

It looks like your best win rate across stakes is less than 15 pounds per hour. Assuming you have a university degree (and probably even if you don't), a different career would probably be more lucrative. Just because you have a job that's not poker doesn't mean you can't continue to play poker and get better at it.

~40:30 - KQJ9 Kd on QT5dd 8o 5d. I'd fold here. I agree you shouldn't fold a hand you could viably value bet for the same sizing but here you definitely could not value bet the straight for the sizing that your opponent uses so I think that's out the window.

If you have a 8% 3bet range you have 90% more K flushes than naked Kd so if you chose to bluff turn with all Kd then give up occasionally on the river, you would give up at a low enough frequency that your opponent can't profitably call you hoping to bluff when you give up. So you would be less concerned with optimal defense here.

The Q is also the single worst blocker to bluffcatch with here because I think it's by far the most common card in his call turn bluff river range.

Lastly the 5d is terrible for your range after you bet the turn and get called because it drops your flush frequency while it doesn't affect your naked blocker frequency because you so rarely bluff the turn with the naked 5d. You generally just have to c/f more on cards bad for your range (and also c/r when you actually have it, sick as it is to c/r a flush on a 4 diamond board here).

Some of these spots are very basic. In 3 of these pots you're just calling down with full houses in spots where no one ever really raises or folds. Maybe you should focus on closer spots where there's a split in how the population plays or do live play.

I would only call with hands that are well correlated with his bluffing range. JJ arguably blocks a Q because J is an very common card when he has Qx, but that effect is not very strong so I still wouldn't reach for it at 2600 into 6600.

I think AKK is a substantially better calling hand because: 1. it has outs against Q4 KQ; 2. at that bet sizing ike can (and probably should) bet some AA/AKK and even KK hands, and AKK is well correlated with his bluffing range if he bets AA/KK at some reasonable frequency.

If he bet 70% pot I would say that calling almost exclusively Qx and a few other hands would be a sufficient defense frequency. Qx is a very effective bluff catcher given its correlation with his bluffs and has very good equity against semibluffs. He goes around 40% here. That's a reason to open up the calling range but I think AJJ no fd is digging too far.

I think it's better to have the Ad than not in this spot.

Thanks for the reply. I didn't see the bet sizing; I personally think this specific hand is still a fold 3-way even with 2600 into 6600 but that definitely makes it much closer.

I think a viable leading strategy might make this hand callable, but like you, and I think most players, I end up checking low diamond rivers in Brandon's spot.

At 24:40 you say that you think Brandon's call on Q74dd Q is "good" with AJJ4 1 diamond. I think it's a fold. How low are you going in Brandon's spot with underpairs with no draw? Are you leading any rivers in Brandon's spot?

Sorry if I missed it, but was there specific public information regarding your results? Thanks.

17:45 - Why do you say it's better to 3bet a cutoff range oop with aces rather than the button range? I play quite a bit and I think its the reverse. The button has more board coverage but it flops much weaker.

I like to see the HU videos.

I think calling the 4b with KK98ss is a losing play. You're barely 33% and you're only >50% on less than 20% of flops, you have enough equity to get it in another 15-20% of the time (but you get it in behind, on average), and you just have to fold over half the time because you get boards like you just did.

I think snowie's wrong here.

This seems like an easy fold on the flop. Also, calling preflop because you want to see more hands per hour doesn't seem like a good reason to call.

I haven't gone through this entire video but what makes this a "merge" rather than a value bet that sometimes gets called by better?

I think calling the flop is out of line and as played to the turn calling is also out of line. As played to the river I think the lead is good.

I think you can consider check raising this hand on the flop if you want to continue. I probably wouldn't c/r with this particular hand but I can see a scenario where it might be reasonable to do so.

37:30 bottom left table I like your bet on the turn with KQ65 as you played it and don't like check calling as you suggested on review. You have a lot of value vs worse Kx with KQ as AK is usually betting this flop and forcing him to fold his naked flush or straight draws is a +. He's also probably calling with a pp between K and 9 with very little equity. I think if you want to check/call you can choose weaker Kx. I see what you're saying about not being able to 2-barrel but your equity is so good when called that you just have to bet here I think.

Nice video Tyler. Is there any way for us to get the .stx file for this tree?

32:42 - I would probably fold the KKJ4 on the flop but I think if you do call I think you have to bet this runout on the river.

You have a number of QJ9x, J9xx, 89xx, etc combos, you're close to the bottom of your range (assuming you won't call KKxx that doesn't block a pair or have some sort of draw) and you are going to lose to AAxx (assuming he cbets it).

While he does have a 9 sometimes I think he doesn't have Q9 very often as i think his flop betting range is 2pair+ and wraps and he's probably going to bet QT9x on the turn if he does bet the nuts as he can b/3b T9. Something like QJ98 is plausible, QJ95ds maybe, but 4 card combos are rare. Although a 9 is fairly frequent in his J8xx, 88xx, or JJxx combos it is much less common in his J5xx and obviously it is very difficult for him to have the straight with AAxx or 55xx. In short I think he doesn't have it often enough such that you can bluff if your sizing is reasonably small (~50%?) and merged with Q9 at least some of the time.

I think if you can't bluff here on what is I would a hazard a guess to be the top 10-20% of runouts for you to bluff on, I don't think you can call given, as you suggested, he is fairly strong when he cbets this flop, you're not incredibly deep and you have a player to act. I might call flop but if that call is correct I think it has to be in part because you can profitably bluff here.

I think it's a fold but I think you should check the flop in this situation.

I think we differ on how much air he has in his range on the turn.

He has complete air about 35% of the time on the flop and in my experience most players tend to put most of their air in their flop cb on this board (not saying that's correct) and considering he has AA/Kx around 25% of the time on the flop that means if he bets most of his air on the flop and xb most of his Kx hands his turn bet range can be pretty strong against Tx.

I don't by any means think it's -ev to c/c here and I admit if you c/r this hand you have fewer hands to vpip with on the turn so his bluffs can win more often but I think Tx is a good c/r hand here although now that I think about it maybe it's better to c/r Tx no fd and c/c Tx fd and I also concede long term one should probably not be c/r every Tx here.

Mostly luck ;)

39:10 - yes I was referring to the turn. How much SD value do you think you have once he checks back and bets turn? I recall a similar discussion on one of your earlier videos; I view your SD value here as a reason to check as opposed to lead and not a reason to not c/r once he bets.

39:10 - I like a c/r bottom left

51:00 - Good point on check calling the T7 blockers. I like it best out of all options.

Am I reading this right that you left out all combos of KK (except those that have Tx or QQ-TT with it?)? He obviously calls with KK more often than JJ and also sometimes has AA. That should significantly skew your numbers given how many combos of KK are in PPT's 10-50 range. Not disagreeing with the fold just being a nit about the numbers; I always call here because I feel like I have to then lose to JT.

I would also point out that whether Jens is high up in his own range is not really a statement about how strong his opponent's range is. T3 is definitely high in his range.

35:45 bottom right - I don't bet the turn in this situation. My thinking is that people's call flop fold turn frequency is relatively small and they very frequently c/c x2 with all overpairs, which are quite frequent in his range and which you are doing fairly badly against. You may get him to fold some better Tx but you block those and with 44 I think you block a lot of his peel once fold turn range. If you check turn on the river this is the kind of hand that lets you rep a 3 4 spade or T when you don't actually have it when he checks river again because I think people rarely go for the river c/r here after x/x turn (FH and 2x combos being fairly rare) and you can call rivers he is very likely to bluff on if he peeled with 5xxx, those being a 3 4 and spade and can bluffcatch a 6 even.

I think you played it fine and I would check call the river.  I doubt he value bets a straight but I do think he bluffs frequently with the Jh or Ah when he doesn't have a straight.  I think he folds a straight without Ah or Jh if you shove.  If he has a blocker, esp the Ah he may talk himself into calling.  

I think the turn would be a call even without the 9 blockers.  

That's interesting because that seems to suggest that you x flops v. often in this situation as the flop is T high or lower 32%+ of the time with card removal and presumably you are often checking flops like JT9 or QQ2 quite often.  And while I agree that his folding range doesn't do very well against AAK2 it probably does much better against your particular holding and you don't need to bet many overpairs to allow you to bet hands like your current holding and push him off equity.  

Also while he has hands like T6 and 542 more often than you do I think most players generally don't have them very frequently as a % of total range which limits how often they can push you off equity. 

I guess I am saying I would like to bet overpairs some of the time and be able to bet hands like this rather than play a strategy where I am checking hands like this very often because even though I rarely have the nuts I think the equity gains are worth it compared to the times I lose equity because of the times he has/reps the small but extremely strong part of his range.  I wonder do you feel very strongly about this as I am curious as to whether I should reevaluate this strategy against stronger players.  

17:20 - The QJ98ds hand on top right table.  I like a flop cb on this board as 1. you can get him off some equity on the flop; 2. you can get him off equity on the turn when it's any card higher than a T; 3. I cb many overpairs and like having a hand that I can lead flop with and c/vpip a 9, 8 7 turn.  And I don't think you get raised all that much on the flop.  

As played I like a turn lead for obvious reasons.  Thoughts?

I don't think you should fold this hand in this situation.  

I folded and he had JTs according to later histories (which bovada allows you to see)