dalix

Hmm, these types of spots playing 2nd in chips versus chipleader are always going to be uncomfortable. Preflop I prefer to flat, because I don't think TT is going to do well enough vs his 4bshove range, taking into account ICM (there are big ICM considerations). Also he could flat the 3b in position and make our life difficult, we don't really want to play a big pot here. 

Postflop I like a check-call, lead turn line on this texture. We can have monsters in our range as JT, 99, 88 definately play this way too, and we never have air, so I doubt he is gonna bluff-raise with, like, AK. a ~40% pot bet on the turn protects our equity vs overs and gets value from 9x and and stuff like T8s as well, and on the river I think we can probably check-fold, although it is often going to go check-check. 

Flop check-raise is an option, I think check-call flop, lead safe turn better controls the size of the pot though, whilst still blocking him from bluffing us out (and we can sometimes get value from worse). 

EDIT: Looking at this again I think your line is fine too, obv it's a straightforward fold to his large turn sizing. It seems close between c/f turn and lead turn smallish imo.

I actually like checking back this flop, alot of his range just c/f's this flop but can hit a worse pair or a draw that we are in good shape against on the turn, which he can put chips in with. Also we may not get 3 streets of value from many worse hands, but we can definately still get 2 streets from worse Ax, and at the same time control the size of the pot. I don't see much need to balance my range against unknowns in a micro MTT. Betting obviously isn't bad, I just think checking back can work out nicely here too.

Turn is a gross spot, on the one hand there's not that many combos he can have that are beating us, AQ/AK/3x seem very unlikely but possible, and that just leaves 54s and unlikely boats which he decided to play this way. On the other hand there aren't many bluffs he can have, flush draw seems unlikely he would probably call down rather than risk being re-raised. Hands like A4/A5/AT/A9 also seem more likely to call down. Therefore I just fold and move on since not many bluffs make sense.

On the turn, although it feels gross and would lead to alot of gross river spots, you could call getting almost 4:1 odds. Also, his sizing makes me think he is more heavily weighted towards draws and weaker one pair hands than big Tx/Kx/better. What are his river stats/reads? If there is any indication that he may gave up with stuff like AcJc and weaker pairs that he's decided to barrel with, then that makes me want to call more. I probably just fold this on the turn in game though and look for a better spot I guess, just because it's difficult to call alot of river bets, and it feels like we can get our chips in in better spots.

I mean, I'm not loving it but never folding this spot. When he raises big on the flop the only play for sure is to jam, although it would be better with some fold equity. I'm gonna run another stove though, I don't fully agree with your range, I think even bad villains (which of course he is, considering his line) wouldn't raise this sizing with 55 here. And also I think we see more AhXh than lower flush draws, which most villains would flat (apart frm SFDs).

So I ran another stove, taking out a few lower FDs and 55, and adding a few hands.


Board: 2c 2h 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.405% 44.22% 00.19% 21449 92.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 55.595% 55.41% 00.19% 26877 92.00 { 99-66, 44-33, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ac2c, Ad2d, As2s, Kd2d, JhTh, 6h4h, 4h3h, Ah2d }


That doesn't change things too much. It's probs +ev to jam over his flop raise with the money already in the pot, although it kinda sucks not to get it in in better shape ~70bb effective versus a fish. I just don't see how any other line could be more profitable.