aaronb25

This is a hand I played in the $1675 WSOPC Choctaw main event yesterday.

I had just moved to the table and had no real reads on the villain, although I had seen him raise AJ then bet/3bet all in on a QQ3 flop vs. a guy and show, so I know he is at least capable of making a move.

Hand
Me: 27K
Villian: 50-60k

Blinds 200/400/50ante

Folds around to me in the CO and I raise to 900 with K9dd, villain is in the BB and defends. Heads up to flop of 8c9c8d. Checks to me and I bet 1k, he check raises to 3.2k, I call. Turn 2d. He leads for 6K, I call. River Kh. He postures for about a minute, maybe more, and then bets 12.3K

My analysis:
I think my open pre is fine as we are plenty deep. Given how active he was in just the few hands I was at the table I cant see ever folding to the c/r on the flop as I think he's doing that with his draws, eights, worse 9s and sometimes air. Given my analysis on the flop I'm going to be forced to call at least one more barrel on safe turns almost always. Turn is a two of diamonds which changes nothing except I now pick up a flush draw. His 6K bet is about 3/4 pot and I cant see doing anything but call, although I am expecting him to take the c/r, bet, shove line a lot of the time given stack sizes. River is a King which changes a few things. I can now beat any weirdly played 1010/JJ/QQ or any K high flush draws that value bet river, plus all other draws miss. His 12.3K bet on the river is just over half pot, which leaves me with 10BB if I call. That sort of screams of value to me, but it sort of threw me off how long he took to bet as he acted very quickly on the previous streets, almost like he was deciding to get thin value with a king. My hand is almost face up as a 9, overpair or missed combo draw. At no point during the hand did he ask to see my chips or want a chip count and I had my hands in front of my chips protecting my cards so I don't think he could see unless he asked or somehow knew before the hand. If most are bluffing here wont they just bomb all in on the river given I have about a full pot bet left?

This is kinda a gross spot just having been moved to the table, but my gut is to fold. I haven't played much live poker in the last year so, I guess my question is what would others do here in a vacuum? The guy seemed very competent and was talking to others at the table using first names so he may be one of the many "circuit grinders". If anybody plays these regularly is there a large percentage of the player pool who are capable of making this move on a bluff?