WickedKnight
6 points
I like the turn and the river. I would have bet small with the intention of folding to a sizeable raise.
Dec. 7, 2020 | 2:18 p.m.
Respectfully, I believe the flop is a clear bet.
Let us assign villain a range of 22-QQ, A2s-AQs, AQo, KTs-KQs, QTs-QJs, J9s-JTs, T8s-T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, and 54s.
After the flop, villain has 146 combinations. If villain calls a flop bet with a pair of tens or better and all of his spade flush draws, then he will be calling with 81/146 combinations or 55.479% of his current range. He will fold 44.521% of the time. If villain calls a flop bet with a pair of sixes or better and all of his spade flush draws, then he will be calling with 67.808% of his range and folding 32.192% of the time.
If you bet 1/3 pot, you immediately profit any time villain folds more than 24.981% of the time. If you bet 1/2 pot, you immediately profit any time villain folds more than 33.333% of the time. If you bet 3/4 pot, you immediately profit any time villain folds more than 42.857% of the time.
For me, this is a c-bet range 1/3 situation.
Of course, when villain calls or raises, you still have some equity. If you would 3B out of the SB against a CO open with 77+, A5s, A9s-AKs, AJo-AKo, KJs+, KQo, QTs+ and JTs, then you have 117 combinations on the flop. 51/117=43.590% of your combinations are top pair or better. You also have 3 spade flush draws in your range.
Dec. 6, 2020 | 8:45 p.m.
Hero is in the SB with $9.90 and is dealt 5d3d.
Villain #1 with $28.03 open limps UTG. Hero completes in the SB. Villain #2 in the BB with $9.93 checks behind.
Flop comes 6dTs7h.
Hero checks. Villain #2 bets $0.15 into $0.30 pot. Villain #1 calls. Hero calls.
Turn comes 6dTs7hAd.
Hero checks, Villain #2 checks. Villain #1 bets $0.75 into a $0.75 pot. Hero raises to $3.00. Villain #2 folds. Villain #1 calls.
River comes 6dTs7hAdJs.
Hero ?
Thoughts on all streets appreciated. I would have C/R the turn with A6o, A7o, 98o, 76o, T7s, and T6s in addition to flush and combo draws. A6s, A7s, ATs, ATo, 98s, and 76s are not in my turn C/R range, because I would have raised them PF, but it is unlikely either villain knows this yet. Is this range too bluff heavy against a PSB on the turn from an UTG limper?
Dec. 6, 2020 | 6:09 p.m.
I think I'm calling all rivers except Kh, Qh, and Th.
Dec. 1, 2020 | 3:06 p.m.
I think it is a call. I don't think the flop check is as bad as you think. Against thinking players, it might be good to have some top pair hands in our flop checking range. Against fish, it's probably best to just bet when we have it and let them call.
Dec. 1, 2020 | 2:58 p.m.
I'm guessing his river range is AX, KhXh, Xh7h+, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h. I think this is a good spot to bluff. I think we might need to bet more to fold out his AX hands, or we bet smaller and accept that we're getting called by AX and folding the rest of his range. I would lean towards a $1 bet.
Do you have any reads on villain?
On the flop, either calling or raising to deny equity is fine. I might flip a coin.
I think I would call on the river. We've underrepresented the strength of our hand. I could see villain showing up with 88+, A4s, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs.
Dec. 8, 2020 | 3:15 a.m.