Peedee
0 points
I wonder what you guys think about this spot from a 550€ live MTT with 1800 starting players and now 205 left and 180 paid.
The super aggressive big stack who opens allmost every hand when first in min raises from CO and I have A8o on D.
both the blinds are pretty tight players so I guess this guy is gonna open with about 70% of hands here, maybe even any 2 cause of players being so tight close to bubble.
I have about 15 big blinds and re shoves whit my A8o. I am certain it is chip EV+ but is it maybe to light concerning the bubble? the avg stack was very low so I could for sure have waited through the bubble even though that of course would crippled me down to 10bb or so.
without having the maths to back i up i find this spot being close, I guess A8 should be bottom of range for this shove, but I am not sure.
Tell me what you think.
Nov. 14, 2015 | 2:06 p.m.
"ICMizer has me as a slight +%EV even against a tight range"
I guess you have your answer there!
If villain is really tight I think you should flat pre rather then 3bet/fold.
July 17, 2015 | 1:32 p.m.
I always fold here. you are doing break even vs a 50% shoving range and you are only a 54% favourite vs a range of 70% so I think you should just muck with BB behind. the loss when BB wakes up with a hand is bigger than the win when you get it in vs BN.
July 17, 2015 | 1:26 p.m.
would also love to see som e kind of article concidering this:
that special hand KJs CO with antees I am pretty sure I never raise fold. with no info of villains I guess I always just shove it. Maybe raise vs super flat happy non 3 betting villains to play in pos with a dominating hand, but It reallty sucks to open and get 3 betet.
July 17, 2015 | 12:50 p.m.
Chip EV it is probably a call, we have 43% vs a 10% range and I guess he is more likely to be a bit wider. with the ICM concidered I guess the fold is fine. The size of his bounty is also something to concider. AQ is easy call and ,my first thought was to call AJ also but after looking at it I lean to a fold, even more so if there are more 4x stacks on the other table.
July 17, 2015 | 12:45 p.m.
vs 99+, AQ+ we only have 29% so if he is really tight it is a fold when we need 32%.
vs a looser player I guess it is a not super happy "have to call".
If you put him on a very strong range just fold pre!
You did call so I guess you don't think he 4bets super tight at least. I can't see how you can fold on this flop when beating so many possible broadway hands. I mean would you also fold a 9xx flop? The equity vs a decent 4bet range is pretty much the same.
Lets say he 4bets: 99+, AJs+, AQ+ we have 48% equity on Td 9s 5d and if the flop instead would be say 9s 5d 4d our equity is still 48%
put in wider range and we beat him on this board.
My point being, if you fold to a CB on this flop this hand is an easy fold preflop. When you call pre flop this is one of the better boards you will get.
July 19, 2015 | 12:56 p.m.