Hand Review: Exploitative Play
Posted by Jonas Smailys
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Great video, I like these hand review-videos (but I know they are much harder to make, than a usual live play video).
Let me get it right, the last hand you think you exploit the player pool, cause they are folding too much? What if they were balanced, what range could we check turn, (over)bet river with?
I think you misunderstood a bit. The turn overall is pretty gross for us in terms that it hits villain's range really well so therefore creating a scenario when we are at a pretty huge disadvantage. I've toyed around with this hand in crEV a bit and noticed that OTF vs some villains we'll be having about 60% FE so I do believe it makes sense to cbet most of our range and therefore on this specific turn we're pretty screwed. So when this happens we need to take a more protective stance and checking with a lot of value hands such as FHs makes a lot of sense.
Now when it comes to river I'm not exactly exploiting that they're folding too much. I'm trying to exploit the fact that they will play their range too face-up OTT. They won't protect their x/backing range enough for blank rivers and when this happens we can really play all sorts of hands very effectively with various sizings - there's nothing villain can do about it.
Hey, nice video!
On the KQ hand, I like the idea of checking this turn with our strong holdings, so we don't end up with a huge c/f range. Besides as it improves his range a ton we should expect him to fire a lot for value and protection.
What hands are good to have on our turn betting range?
What do you think it's optimal to do with a boat? I think most villains will have a wide calling frequency in this spot against a c/r. We should definately exploit that.
On the other hand I'm not sure I love your river play. Most villains know that they're playing a capped range and will know that our turn checking range is weakish (we're actually c/f a lot of hands, and we are thinking about strenghtening it). I think we'll get hero'd more often than not.
To be honest I wasn't able to construct a gameplan for this turn that I'd be 100% confident in. My thoughts would be - for bluffing range I want hands without SDV so KJ, AJ w/o FD, KQ and low Axs hands with FD. For value parts of my range I want some boats (non 8x preferably) and probably QJ hands over 8x hands as there's simply more hands we vbet against. Though I'm not 100% convinced about QJ>8x, haven't toyed around with this scenario enough to be sure. The hard part really is not going overboard with all those bluffs and so few value hands otherwise the entire river gameplan for blanks gonna go busto.
Regarding my river play - well that's why I increased my sizing to a 1.5x PSB. If you don't think it increases your FE at all then you can either start underbluffing in this scenario (which is kinda fine, after all we are at a disadvantage ranges wise) or further increase the sizing (which I don't like as much). But generally speaking with the little overbetting going on at the tables I don't think a random reg with whom we don't have dynamics is going to be heroing here all that much. They might also convince themselves they're x/backing more boats OTT than they actually are - speaking from experience haha. Also at a glance I can't name a single weaker hand in terms of SDV we got OTR so really we gotta be bluffing this hand.
Hello!
I really loved this hand review video with your analysis assessing defense ranges depending on the pfr,that's the way to understand how to exploit villains.
Your move river in the last hand is pretty solid imo for he gave you much info on the turn by not stabbing,meaning a capped range at the most so on this river blank your overbet is great.
Thank you for sharing.
maybe it's just me, but the KK<99 hand to me it's simply a cooler, rather than any sort of "leak" from hero's barreling perspective. Against 29/23/12 in this shorthanded game it's actually best to punish villain by barreling off with QQ+ on low runout boards simply for pure value, because he'd float or station so so wide. Villain caught an incredibly lucky turn, and end of story.
I provided arguments to counter everything you've said so really you need to be more specific if you want to generate any sort of discussion.
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