Weird spot postflop with mid set + FD, deep, 10/25/50 PLO
Posted by nma
Posted by
nma
posted in
High Stakes
Weird spot postflop with mid set + FD, deep, 10/25/50 PLO
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BTN: $8500 (Hero, bought in for the minimum $2k and ran it up to current stack)
MP1: $5.2k (weak tight reg, min bought for $2k and is winning now. Game is also too big for him)
SB: $30k (very action reg, was stuck like 10k but now winning 10k. Tightens up a bit when winning)
UTG/straddle: $12k (very good player, well constructed ranges on each street and is a
bit of a headache to play against. His play deteriorates a bit when
he's stuck and he plays wider, and peels more hands preflop, and barrels more aggressively. But that's not a factor as he's currently winning a bit, and seems to be playing clinically)
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Hero is btn with JJ78cc. MP1 limps 50$, we raise to 200$ to isolate weak tight player, everyone calls.
Flop: QcJd6c ($825)
We have middle set w J hi flush draw, check check check to us and we bet
$625, SB calls, straddle now raises to $2100, mp1 folds...back to us
now. What's our play?
Reads:
SB: His peel here is going to always consist of draws, he has a tendency to lead at pots with
made hands, 2p he is definitely leading in a multiway pot, and with
sets he generally likes to xr. So he can have anything from like naked
NFD here to gutter and NFD, and esp wrap type hands, AKT, KT9, that are
peeling a turn. His range is pretty well defined here due to a good
handle on his tendencies. Any draws better than that (NFD and OESD+, even wrap +small FD, he tends to blast back with xr)
UTG: The xr here is kind of confusing. I think this candidate player is going to also lead
hands like QJ, Q6, and I think he leads sets too once in a while too.
On drier boards he likes to xc or xr sets (mostly xc), and let you
barrel turns. I've never seen him xr in this spot with anything really
so not too sure what to make of it.
But I do think the small sizing here is just repping very polar, he's offering very good odds for both
of us to peel with anything, it could be something ridiculous like top
set NFD, or he is trying to leverage a fold from me and get HU w SB.
Perhaps he is attacking on the fact that my hand cannot continue vs a flop
raise that often, and by raising here he is trying to get a fold from me
and get the pot heads up with the SB. He is also aware of the fact
that SB's holdings here are purely marginal draws, and if I fold and SB
calls the 2.1k on the flop (which he surely will if I fold), he can
attack a lot of turn cards and win by the turn, and if called, he can
still barrel the river and win.
However I am also not barreling light on this texture, it is a set-heavy flop and also draw heavy flop and
pretty much hits everyone's preflop value range. So I think the above scenario is
unlikely and this is going to be a bad spot for UTG to monkey around in a 4-way
super wet board.
Given all this detailed information, what do you think the best line on the flop is? Reship and
force out SB (who may have NFD and be forced to fold, making our FD
live) Peel the flop and look for bricks to get it in? If we choose to
peel, SB is surely peeling, making the pot $7125 OTT and we essentially
have 0.9 spr OTT. Folding is out of the question, we are so
close to the top of our range, but I'm also worried that we may be
facing QQ kinda often, and some NFDs are out there, and we are also
pretty deep with spr 10 OTF.
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