http://weaktight.com/6917359

villain is a friend of mine. 3bets me about 15% btn vs co over a large sample, however...recently he has started widening his 3b range and lowering his sizing (the less than pot doesnt mean much tho, he does this with his whole range now). ive seen him 3b KQ97ss so his range is def approaching 20-25% maybe higher.

hes good and very aggro ip esp vs capped ranges or on boards where i rarely have a strong hand. he doesnt try to bluff me when i have a lot of good sdv in my range tho (if i cc turn on like QJx 9 or AJx etc), at least he has had it almost always and he knows i take a somewhat balanced approach vs him OOP to defend my checking ranges.

im almost certain that villain will cb all his air here, as well as weak draws that cant really call turn and also all hands he wants to, or wont mind gii here. his check back range will mostly consist of pair+weak FDs, low 1p+OE or gutter+playable backdoors and sidecards etc.

id assume he bets gii at least QQ+ w/ FD, any 2p+, any pair+OE+fd. any gutter/pair+FD (at least a nut gutter) and probably AA/KK with an OE. i know he doesnt think this board hits my range very well (correctly so) and will prob bluff with his air on all flushing turns(he doesnt think theres a lot of FDs in my range when i call) but if i cc turn on the flush i will be in a close spot, as my range def consists of flushes but no big ones, and dep on the card i may also have 2p/str8 so i wont be happy calling/folding otr if i cc turn flushing. theres is also the additional problem when we miss turn esp on A/K/Q/J where we just have to fold i guess.

if he has one exploitable tendency, it is that he bet-folds more than most in some spots (where his range is polarized) so c-shoving is almost def profitable, but we will obv gii bad a lot when he does gii and our EV of a shove is prob only in the $20-$80 range if that.

felt like it may be good for my range to have more fds in my ccing flop range. and also hands that can cc / cr more turns?

so wadda ya say, play cautiously and improve my turn range or take the easy way out and just x-jam?