Shove without the fd?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Shove without the fd?

UTG: $25.85
HJ: $25.91
CO: $25 (Hero)
BN: $73.15
SB: $15.61
BB: $25.73
Just sat 3 hands ago, so no real reads on anyone, although I do have a few hundred hands on UTG and CO, and about 20 hands on BTN from lower stakes. I have them all as pretty big losers from those small samples, so I might be a little tilted that they're playing this (comparatively) high. Who knows - I might have seen them when lower games were the only thing running. BTN especially seems loose passive, although he's the smallest sample.

2 hands ago I got into it with the exact same players when I was deal KKxx double suited in SB. In that hand, as in this hand, there was an open, I 3bet, the guy to my left called and the opener folded. I cbet a T52r board and he called in position with JJ56. I checked a 7 turn, he checked behind. I, for some reason, bet a 6 river and he called with bottom 2 pair. (I think that's an obvious protection bet on turn and x/f on river, but that's in the past. But it goes to my mental state and his.)
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 6 K 8 K
UTG raises to $0.85, HJ folds, Hero raises to $2.38, BN raises to $5.44, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $3.06
Double suited kings for the second time in three hands, and with better position in before, and I raise to isolate since I don't think utg is playing positionally, so his range is wider than it should be from that position. Miffed when button 4bets and UTG folds (as he did 2 hands ago when he opened and got 3bet and called.) I'm on the fence about 5bet/getting it in, and I'd like to hear thoughts. When i get 4bet, especially from some one who's playing 52/8 with no 3bets or 4bets over 25 hands, I'm thinking aces, so I may not want to gamble this. But it's a strange very small 4bet, and I only have 25 hands on the guy, so I don't know what that means. It could be an inducement, and it could be him wanting to play in position with the initiative but being ok with folding cheaply if I 5bet. I understand that without more reads it's tough to say. From what I've seen, he's a caller not a raiser, but I've seen very little.
Flop ($12.08) 5 4 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $12.08

This was in my first shot at 25plo, and I was trying hard not to let the money influence my decisions. I'm not sure if I was going the other way and being reckless to prove to myself that it wasn't. That may or may not be relevant in this hand. 

Here's the crux of the question. I have an over pair, a gutter, another backdoor straight, and backdoor 2nd nut diamonds, and blockers to a few straights and draws. I don't have enough equity to get it in against every hand, but I probably have enough equity to get it in against any range. I check with the plan of check raising. If he checks back, I'm pretty certain my kings are good and I'll go with it on any non-heart turn. But as the preflop 4bettor, he's probably betting his whole range, including whiffs. So I think there's some fold equity here in addition to my hot and cold equity, which can't be terrible. 

But, then again, he 4bet pre, which is usually AA, and I'm in pretty rough shape v. that - about 26%. And the other thing is, I HATE getting in when I don't have at least something to the primary flush draw. 

But, then again, again, what can continue on this board? 45 is the only 2 pair than makes sense, and even that doesn't make sense in a 4bet range. TT can easily continue, but again - unless it's like AATT - there's not a ton of TT in what I would assume his 4bet range is. I have more 45 and TT in MY range than he has in his. The only thing I see continuing realistically is AA or a heart draw. (Or, more realistically, AA with a heart draw.) 

So: Folding seems to be letting go of too much equity. Calling relinquishes any fold equity I'll ever have for the rest of the hand. (And if I call, what can I continue on? Any non-heart-non-ace? If I only plan to continue on a K or 7, then I'm better off folding now.) So shoving seems like the best option to me. I'll get some folds and be close to having pot odds if I'm called. 

Thoughts on all streets? Thanks. 

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