Should I chase my draws on this turn?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Should I chase my draws on this turn?

BN: $21.51
SB: $53.03
BB: $32.42 (Hero)
UTG: $32.33
HJ: $59.76
CO: $21.86
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T 7 A A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.35, BN calls $1.60
Flop ($5.05) K 6 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.39, BN calls $2.39
Turn ($9.83) K 6 5 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $9.17
Hero?

My question here is pretty straightforward. I have no stats or reads on this villain. I just need to figure out if calling this turn bet is profitable or not. I have 12 outs to the nuts (9 spades, 3 9's), plus possibly 2 aces as well. That means that I've probably got 25% equity, so I need to be getting 3:1 to call. My express odds are only 2:1, but factoring in the implied odds with the ~$8 villain had left behind, I'm getting close to 3:1. However since he's repping the nuts here, at least one of my 9's are probably gone, and that would also eliminate the two A's as outs. So call here or not? If calling, my plan is to donk jam river if I connect, c/f if I don't despite the good price I'll be getting (since a pair of AA is never good here).


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