Rate my bluff

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Rate my bluff

BN: $669.31
SB: $1775.14
BB: $514.80
UTG: $758.18
HJ: $1265.69
CO: $1555.36 (Hero)
villain is a 31/18/11 semi-lag reg that I have been battling with all day. I don't think he balances his ranges well, ie his x/c ranges are usually not nut hands that have equity against my range, and his donk leads on streets are usually backdoor strength. He's not a bad player or hand reader, and I'm sure he wins in these games. he wins 40% WSF and has SD stats of 28/59. So he's not bluff catching, betting thin, or turning a lot of SD into bluffs.

For the session he probably sees me as a 28/17/6 player for 6 handed, but he's noticed by now that I'm 3betting very very wide when deep stacked against other regs. At least 3-4 times now (including against him) he's seem me pot 3bet IP with a single suited rundown type of hand against a reg with 300bbs or more. He also knows I'm capable of bluffing and raising multiple streets with more than blockers.
Preflop ($6.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 7 T Q
UTG folds, HJ raises to $10.50, Hero raises to $37.50, BN folds, SB raises to $125, BB folds, HJ folds, Hero calls $89.50
pf is obviously loose. by the HJ opens way too wide in this spot (like 24%) and we're so deep I can stand a 4bet and play against him. Plus I don't think he plays terrifically postflop.

when the SB pot 4bets (after a very short tank) I make sure to tank a little before calling to slightly disguise my range.

should I fold initially? is there any reason to fold to the 4bet? fwiw I need a new HUD (if anyone has suggestions) because the only 4bet stat I can find for him is a 4bet after initially raising. So I can't exactly give a range estimate here. But I'd guess its huge rundowns, AAxxds, AAKxss, AKKxds, and the like. I don't think he's going to have too much junk in this range.

Flop ($268.50) 3 4 5 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $152, SB calls $152
the flop hit and I know that I have a huge range domination advantage. my first thought was that I need to barrel off almost always on this lockdown board against a range that is probably capped at A2 for him. I think there is a pretty good chance he might cbet a set, but even those might check call.

I do have the one 7 blocker.
Turn ($572.50) J (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $336, SB calls $336
turn is great because it prevents bd flush draws from having incentive to call down. My sizing is to set up a river jam.
River ($1244.50) 2 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $940.36
as the river is happening I stack him on another table in a 3bet pot OOP when he called it off with two outs on the turn.

river is not my favorite card, because if he ever has a 3-5 to go with his AAxx he might call here. Also some other gutters might have gotten there (6x). I tank for just a second before shoving the rest in.

so, rate my bluff...

or give me some solid analysis ;)

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