PLO50: Wrap in 3-bet pot, flop decision. EV calculation in HM???
Posted by C-bet
Posted by
C-bet
posted in
Low Stakes
PLO50: Wrap in 3-bet pot, flop decision. EV calculation in HM???
HJ: 45.02
CO: 50
BN: 119.86
SB: 94.95 (Hero)
BB: 57.48
CO: 50
BN: 119.86
SB: 94.95 (Hero)
BB: 57.48
HJ: 45/31/22 3-b 466h (Hyperaggro fish)
BB: 55/15/5 40h 20% c-b 100% t-b
BB: 55/15/5 40h 20% c-b 100% t-b
Preflop
(0.75)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
7
9
T
HJ raises to 1.75, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls 1.50, BB raises to 7, HJ calls 5.25, Hero calls 5.25
HJ raises to 1.75, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls 1.50, BB raises to 7, HJ calls 5.25, Hero calls 5.25
Standard call 3-way in 3-bet pot w/J-h ss rundown
Flop
(21.50)
8
2
7
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets 19.64,
HJ folds,
Hero calls 19.64
I opt to check because I think BB is likely to bet w/AAxx in this spot. When HJ folds I call, but in hindsight I think a raise is better. I have a strong draw, but only middle pair. If I raise there is a chance (although small) BB will fold and I will take the pot down. Agree?
Turn
(60.78)
8
2
7
Q
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets 30.84, and is all in,
Hero calls 30.84
I still have a strong draw and only need 25% equity to call.
River
(122.46)
8
2
7
Q
9
(2 Players)
Final Pot
Hero has
J
7
9
T
BB has
T
K
A
A
Hero
wins 118.96
I was lucky to get there on the river. To my surprise this is a -EV hand in HM. My net win is 61.48, but the EV diff is -77.32. My flop equity was 56.71%, while my turn equity was 35.00%. Can anyone please explain why this is a -EV hand?
Loading 4 Comments...
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.
This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.