I don't think there's any reason to bet this river if I'm not betting the turn, for mostly the same reasons. I'm just not getting worse to call, and the only hands that are better than mine are full houses and quads, which I don't see villain folding.

I thought a really long time about this decision on the river. I think it's a much more interesting spot than it seems on the surface level of "flush on double paired board; snap x/f ldo".

By checking two streets in a row after cbetting as PFR, I look very weak and my sample size on villain isn't so conclusive as to say they never make a move here.

But I have blockers to the only obvious missed draw: 543.

But I block 66 and I think most sets raise this flop anyway.

Similarly, I block Q6 and 62. And I'm not sure either checks the turn anyway. (Edit: when I wrote "I'm not sure either checks the turn anyway", I phrased the previous sentences differently. Q6 can check the turn, for sure. Q2 probably doesn't, but see below re: unlikely combos.)

And while it's not impossible, even a high VPIP player is somewhat less likely to have a Q6 combo. (QT86ds? They're just two cards that don't come in a lot of playable combos all that often.)

Blockers don't make it impossible for villain to have me beat, but—when taking them into consideration—a lot of winning hands for villain become way less likely.

What do you think?