BB is 60/35 with a 13% 3bet and 60% AGG over 21 hands.

Perfectly reasonable open, imo. Nothing to see here. BB isn't afraid to 3bet wider than AA judging from our small sample, so they're a bit capped.

Surprising lead. As is generally the case at PLO25, I'm assuming this is pretty value-heavy but this player's stats over a small sample suggest they may stab more than average. Against a value range of ([J,8,3][J,8,3], T9:dd, Ad*d):70%6H!13%6H, PPT spits out 29% equity. We're a little off of our price here, strictly speaking, but our hand is a bit underrepped as a button open and villain has been active. We've also got backdoor spades that are likely to be live and...

A backdoor straight draw! Not the absolute best card for us but it's very unlikely to improve villain's hand.

I decided to semibluff my OESD (which is probably in good shape if a 9 hits; we block T7 and especially QT). I wasn't convinced that BB was so strong that this never gets a fold (though perhaps I needed to size up), but when they shove it's pretty difficult to know what to do.

I believe we need about 31% equity to continue and break even, and we have just under 38% against the flop value range I stipulated. Especially if you add in weaker hands that villain is overplaying (maybe some bluffs or semibluffs I didn't run in PPT?), it seems like this is a call.

But am I being too optimistic? What do you think? Can we go with this?

(By the way, in retrospect I almost like a flop raise. It potentially gets us two free cards, but raise/folding feels gross and that's almost definitely what would need to happen.)