Dry paired two toned board.....bet the turn ?
Posted by sted9000
Posted by sted9000 posted in Mid Stakes
Dry paired two toned board.....bet the turn ?
Hand: http://wt.ag/1aEKpJm
Questions:
1- Frequencies opponent has different holdings?
2- What should I do on blank turns?
Work:
Range- 20% Blind Flatting
Folds
25.1983% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW
2.7825% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW
5% POCKET12 | NO FLUSH DRAW
Calls
10.0587% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW
12.7303% POCKET12 | NO FLUSH DRAW
8.2227% POCKET12 | FLUSH DRAW
4.0153% OVERPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW
1.4215% OVERPAIR | FLUSH DRAW
2.0960% QUADS | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT FLUSH
4.0565% TRIPS | FLUSH DRAW
8% TRIPS | NO FLUSH DRAW
Raise
8.8310% TRIPS | NO FLUSH DRAW
2.5742% FULLHOUSE | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT FLUSH
4% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW
1.0130% SECONDPAIR | FLUSH DRAW
(I split up the trips into the calling and raising range, raised some of the FDs, and spilt the pocket pairs into the calling and folding flop ranges)
So on blank turns he has
30% FDs and PPs
5% Overpair
15% Trips+
Weighted Average
30/50 = 60% (FDs, PPs)
5/50 = 10% Overpair
15/50 = 30% Trips+
Conclusion:
a- Opponent doesn't have as much pure air to fold OTF as I would have thought, b- Assuming Opponent is folding most of his (FDs, PPs) Range OTT, a 2/3 - 3/4 size bet is profitable
What do you think?
Loading 2 Comments...
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.
This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.