Dry paired two toned board.....bet the turn ?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Dry paired two toned board.....bet the turn ?

Hand: http://wt.ag/1aEKpJm

Questions:

1- Frequencies opponent has different holdings?

2- What should I do on blank turns?

Work:

Range- 20% Blind Flatting

           Folds

25.1983% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW

2.7825% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW

5% POCKET12 | NO FLUSH DRAW

            Calls

10.0587% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW

12.7303% POCKET12 | NO FLUSH DRAW

8.2227% POCKET12 | FLUSH DRAW

4.0153% OVERPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW

1.4215% OVERPAIR | FLUSH DRAW

2.0960% QUADS | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT FLUSH

4.0565% TRIPS | FLUSH DRAW

8% TRIPS | NO FLUSH DRAW

          Raise

8.8310% TRIPS | NO FLUSH DRAW

2.5742% FULLHOUSE | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT FLUSH

4% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW

1.0130% SECONDPAIR | FLUSH DRAW

(I split up the trips into the calling and raising range, raised some of the FDs, and spilt the pocket pairs into the calling and folding flop ranges) 

So on blank turns he has

30% FDs and PPs

5% Overpair

15% Trips+

Weighted Average

30/50 = 60% (FDs, PPs)

5/50 = 10% Overpair

15/50 = 30% Trips+

Conclusion:

a- Opponent doesn't have as much pure air to fold OTF as I would have thought, b- Assuming Opponent is folding most of his (FDs, PPs) Range OTT, a 2/3 - 3/4 size bet is profitable

What do you think?


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