Bet flop? Fold Turn? Call River?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Bet flop? Fold Turn? Call River?

BN: $0
SB: $342.50
BB: $907.60
UTG: $1207.70
LJ: $1640.95
HJ: $645.60 (Hero)
CO: $0
don't know why the HH is messed up. There is no CO or BN at the table. Even though it says HJ, I'm on the BN. Villain was utg/mp and we were 5 handed.

villain is a good tag regular. he's 24/20/13 pf, and is probably opening right at 20% from UTG. He rarely ever CCs so he mostly plays a raise or fold game. He will put lots of pressure on you with strong draws, made hands, and bluffs. He mostly bets one size 3/4 to full pot. He cbets IP 75% on the flop, 62% on the turn, and 58% on the river. So his frequencies are mostly in line. He has a WTSD/W@SD of 30/52 and a W$WSF of 51.
Preflop ($6.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 K K 5
UTG raises to $12, LJ folds, Hero raises to $42, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $30
over 2k hands I only have villain 4betting a 4% range from UTG. So I figured I could safely 3bet this and wouldn't get reraised too often.
Flop ($90.00) 6 5 3 (3 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
this flop actually probably hits my range more than his. That being said, I don't know that I have a lot of value in betting. If he raises I'm in a gross spot as he could definitely be doing it with a pair+diamond draw, and I know he will flat some AAxx pf.

I could bet small, something like 1/3 pot here with this hand along with my strongest of made hands/draws to create a b/f range on the flop.

instead I decided to x/b with my bd equity assuming that he wouldn't be able to just barrel out of control on run out.
Turn ($90.00) Q (3 Players)
UTG bets $87, Hero calls $87
so he almost snap pots the Q on the turn. Obviously a set of queens is in his range. I tank for a little bit and call. Should I fold here?
River ($264.00) T (3 Players)
UTG bets $200, BN folds, Hero folds
and then with very little thought he bets just over 3/4 on the river. If he has Qxxxdd on the turn he often would have a T with it and now have two pair. I imagine he's value betting all sets, straights, and two pair containing a Q. Some of the lower two pairs are probably bets as well.

bluff catch the river?
Final Pot
UTG wins $461

I kind of hate how I played this hand post.  I feel like I turned my hand nearly face up on the flop, hoping that the strength of my range would serve as protection from villains aggressively trying to bluff me off my hand.  and I got to the river and felt like I should call because the T doesn't change much.  But I timed out and folded.

help

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