AKQTds river buffcatch?
Posted by Ephedrine10
Posted by Ephedrine10 posted in Low Stakes
AKQTds river buffcatch?
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools by CardRunners - Hand Details
BTN: $12.77 (127.7 bb)
Hero (SB): $13.38 (133.8 bb)
BB: $2.79 (27.9 bb)
UTG: $6.07 (60.7 bb)
MP: $48.43 (484.3 bb)
CO: $22.11 (221.1 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with T A Q K
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB folds, MP calls $0.70
Flop: ($2.10) K J 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.30, MP calls $1.30
Turn: ($4.70) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.80, MP calls $2.80
River: ($10.30) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $9.86, Hero folds
I was betting small on the flop and on the turn to keep the weaker draws in and to induce some lighter raises.
Now on the river. My first intuition was to fold, but according to pokerjuice : I gave him this calling range on the flop: j8+,dd,k+:9t+,9TQ+ (every 2 p or better any FD any King with an openeder, any wrap. ). He raises on the flop KJ+, any 2p+FD, any wrap+FD. On the turn I think his range is the same as flop range + club flush draws.
On the river I assume he will be every flush, he will check any AK+ and bluffs with the rest. So he will have a flush 28,5% of the time. Check 33,14% of the time and bluff 38,36% (assuming he will bluff if he doesnt have at least AK ) In which case I sould definetely call. But Is it possible that a call WITH JUST A NAKED AK is +EV? It is really strange to me. What do you think guys?
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