50PLO 6m, Barrel River For Value or Check To Bluff Catch?

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50PLO 6m, Barrel River For Value or Check To Bluff Catch?

Villain's 6m stats are 44/33 9% 3b over 175 hands. He's playing very positionally aware and opening a huge % from co/btn as well as 3betting ~22% from the button. He's actually an incredibly tough opponent to play against. We've been battling a bit and I think he views me as hand reading and a reg.

Effective stacks 54.75

Hero opens AcTs7c6s UTG to 1.50, Villain flats MP, CO folds, BTN(fish 14.25) flats, SB folds, BB folds

Flop 8h6d4s(5.25)

Hero bets 3.25, MP calls, BTN folds

Tu 2d (11.75)

Hero 8.75, Villain calls

River Ah(29.25)

Hero(41.25 eff)?

So, I think I'm leaning towards betting here b/c I think there are more combinations of 86/84/64 (or worse) that would consider a hero call, and very few combinations of T97 or the like b/c they're likely to just raise flop and get it in. The thing I'm unsure of, is how many combos of 987*,T98*/weird floats that could potentially turn themselves into a bluff there are.

Also, I think I credibly rep a decent number of air combos by barreling off here, given all top wrap combos missed, as well as BDFD combos. Additionally, I'm not sure he expects me to get on the thinner side for value here, so if he views my range as more polarized than it really is, his bluff catching freq with mediocre 2pr combos goes up a lot.

Those were the gist of my thoughts. Thoughts on all streets appreciated, specifically river.

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