50PL 3b Pot Turn Decision
Posted by TJ Serdar
Posted by
TJ Serdar
posted in
Low Stakes
50PL 3b Pot Turn Decision
http://weaktight.com/5675542
Villain is running 27/18, opening 24% UTG. We have a very aggressive preflop dynamic which is why I'm 3betting some pretty marginal AA in this spot. I expect to get 4bet pretty liberally here, and the time when flatted, to be able to make some pretty good decisions.
Flop seems like a clear bet/call. I would like to discuss sizing here. The flop SPR is a bit over 4, which would make potting flop the vacuum bet sizing, imo. The problem w/ this is I have a pretty healthy b/f range, and I need to be somewhat balanced vs this guy so I opted for a smaller sizing. I'm not in love with it though b/c the turn SPR is like 1.8 and that's just a disgusting SPR for me. I think I'm leaning towards betting 7-8 on the flop with my range as I think on this texture I get ch/ca'ed more than ch/r'ed and I think the value I get from keeping the turn SPR better for me, coupled with my +EV shove on most turns outweighs the extra bb or two I have to fold the times I'm bet/folding flop.
Turn is where it gets interesting. I have a J so I block his QJ combos. He shouldn't have a ton of Q5/Q2 and it doesn't make much sense for those to play that way. It seems pretty likely that he ch/ca'ed flop with a hand like T9**:dd, turned OE and led to max his FE. I need 38% to get it in here.
Thoughts on all streets appreciated.
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