Hey guys,
i find that i haven’t put in enough time to think about 4Betting in general and how to adjust my range to certain 3Betting ranges. So i tried to analyse a hand i played some days ago:
In this hand a very frequent 3Bettor squeezes in a spot, which i considered as a pretty good spot for him to 3Bet:
- i open a relatively wide range in the Cutoff
- a lose player OTB just flats
I would probably give him here approximately a 10% squeezing range
Preflop i have 2 choices imo:
(a) 4Betting
Assumption: 4betting will lead to a fold of the Button
I assigned the BB a 10% 3Betting range in Pokerjuice:
KK24ddss 54% - $3B10o 46%
Breaking this range down into a non AAxx part and a AA part:
(1) He should have AAxx about 21.5% of the time P(1)=0.215
KK24ddss 33.2% - $3B10o:AA 66.8%
In this case, he will 5Bet and i have to call it off: EV(1) = 0.332 * 426$ - 0,668 * 388$ = - 118$
(2): Non AAxx: P(2)=0.785
KK24ddss 60% - $3B10o!AA 40%
2.a: I 4Bet and he folds:
He has a Fold vs 4Bet Stat of 18% ( i only have about 1.8k hands against him). Given that he has probably a tighter 3Bet range here than in general (cause he is OOP) i would assume it is probably around 10% here.

EV (2.a) = 2*12$+2$+50$=76$

2.b: I 4Bet,he calls:
Pot:342$
Stack: 236$
Okay, this is pretty tough. He probably puts me on this range KK:ds,AKK:ww,AA
WIth the range i worked with, he will have enough equity 64.1% of the time with an average equity of 52.7% (i assume this to be more like 54% as my actual hand is very much at the bottom of this range)
(Those assumptions might be way off..)
P(He Folds FLop)= 36%
EV(He Folds Flop)= 26$+164$=190$
P(He Calls)= 64%
EV(He Calls, i lose)= -388$
EV(HE Calls, i win)= 426$
-> EV(4Betting) = 0.215* (-118$)(He has Aces) +0.1* 76$ (He folds vs 4Bet)
+(1-0.1-0.215)(0.36 190$+0.64* (0.46* 426$- 0.54* 388$))
EV(4Betting) = -25.4$ + 7.6$ + 0.685* (68.4$+125.4$-134.1$) = +23.1$
(b) Calling
For Calling to be more profitable, the EV has to be bigger than +23.1$. After the BB squeezes, i’ll have to call an additional 38$ and i am pretty sure the BU will come along as well.
In that case, there will be 152$ in the pot with 350$ left in my stack. So, if i see it right, my share of the pot has to be more than 38+23=61$ to be more profitable than the 4Bet, right (which equals 0.40%).
The button has a very lose range here, so i guess i am probably around the 40% equity mark in this case, but i have bad relative position and he is a frequent cbettor. A lot of the time i will flop just a bare overpair (45,1535% OVERPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW), which i either have to fold or stick it in and hope to be flipping or be slightly ahead (the deuce and the four won’t give me much additional equity on most of the boards). So, i would say that my EV here is lower than 23.1$

I have a couple of questions here:
- Do you think the assumptions i made are okay, or is something way off in your opinion?

• Are you more inclined to 4Bet this hand with or without the BU in the hand?
  Pro: Bad relative Position postflop
  Contra: BB has probably stronger squeeze range than 3betting range; we let the player with a pretty lose range fold and isolate us against the stronger range

• Let’s assume we open a 35% range in the CO, the BU folds and the SB 3Bets us. What do you think how lose must the SB 3Betting range be for you to start 4Betting with the following hands (100BBs Stacks):
  AKKQds, AKK7ss, KK89ds, KKT6ss, AQQ5ss, AK78ds
  How does it change when stacks get deeper (200BBs+)?

I will search for a hand in my database where i made a 4Bet from OOP and would love to hear your thought on that topic as well.
Thanks for your feedback!

Fabse