2nd pair vs 3barrel 3bet pot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

2nd pair vs 3barrel 3bet pot

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BB: $50.00
UTG: $119.87
MP: $87.75
CO: $52.99 (Hero)
BN: $50.00
SB: $73.18
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is CO with T 7 A 9
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.35, BN raises to $4.80, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.45
Flop ($10.35) 7 J T
Hero checks, BN bets $7.00, Hero calls $7.00
Turn ($24.35) 7 J T 4
Hero checks, BN bets $11.50, Hero calls $11.50
River ($47.35) 7 J T 4 J
Hero checks, BN bets $26.70 and is all in

Villain is decent but agressive regular , has fairly high cbet stats in 3bet and single raised pots. He 3bets 15-17% BUvsCO and cbets 75% IP in 3bet pots over my sample (which is a reasonably high number of hands).

I ran some sims in PJ, it turns out that almost no matter what, he is gonna end up with too many bluffs here.

The range I constructed has him cbet only 45% of his preflop range on the flop which might be too tight for him, being however more of a worst case for me.

His turnsizing on a board this dynamic is super confusing to me, especially when I hold the As, not exactly sure what he is trying to represent, but I'll give him the benefit of doubt and assume that he is going to bet his entire range with that sizing (again, if he shoves some sets/2pairs/straights OTT his bluffing frequency will be so high the sim is not worth running).

River he jams, I'll give him credit for shoving AJ+ though some players might not, KJ+ should be too loose since I'll have some AJ and boats myself. Also have him check back KT or better, bluffing QQ-AA should be non-sensical and if he bluffs KT and AT this becomes even more of a snapcall.

With him vbetting as thin as KJ+ and checking back QT+ our EV is still 13bb for bluffcatching.

Let me know if my thought process has some flaws or this should be an easy call on our part.

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