$2/5 PLO live. Going HAM on good villain.

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

$2/5 PLO live. Going HAM on good villain.

$2/$5
hero ($2.7k) MP with KsKcTs7h

10 handed, home game, decent amount of history over several years with villain in which I've mostly showed the nuts and I think he thinks I'm on the nitty side
my position on the table is the worst, villain on immediate left ($4k and covers) is a bracelet winning PLO specialist and on the aggro side esp pre he's opening about 30%, he also likes to 3b in pos at a pretty high freq with anything playable to iso. villain on his left competent and deep ($3k)

utg passive fish limps
some folds
hero limps
villain limps
other villain limps
sb complete
bb checks

I feel limp/calling>open/call villain's 3b to iso me, although this would probably be the top of my limping range, everything else I would happily open/call, plus we let fish get into the pot with limping

flop 9d8d4s ($45)
utg checks
hero pots $45
villain pots to $180
folds to hero, pot to $585, planning on folding to shove

my hand is obviously too weak I think to go in to hero call mode, plus he has a variety of options with his draws if we call flop check turn, we block no diamonds, but also no sets or 2p, we only block one T for the high wrap...so I felt OTF that villain would be semi-bluff heavy mostly due to the wet texture and my hand. I do expect villain to play 88XX and 99XX this way as well. combinatorically, there has to be more combo draws than sets right? I dont know how to actually calculate this for 4 cards, if it were NL obviously it would be an easy calc...any thoughts?

villain tank calls and is studying me very hard

Im planning on shutting it down on all diamonds, 7,T,J,Q, and I'm thinking seriously about blasting all bricks
turn 2c

I didn't expect villain to ever, ever play 99XX this way on the flop as he's the type that I think 100% just tries to fly the money in with the current nuts, so I felt that he'd be weighted toward combo draws, maybe a 98XX + draw, top of his value range being 88XX, I have 10 outs against 88XX, 16 outs against 89XX, currently ahead of the rest of his range, I felt like my equity against his value range is probably in the neighborhood of 20%. pot is about 1200, we have about 2100 behind eff ott. Thoughts on turn play...sizing considerations? I don't think villain ever jams turn with draws given my b/3b flop line, so I figured this is my last street to get value/attempt to fold 89XX or 88XX. I'm wasn't sure if a smaller sizing would look weaker or stronger to him but since I flop went pot/pot/pot I think it is possible that a less than pot turn bet might look suspicious and I do want to get max value from combo draws, and I want to make 100% sure he doesn't jam them on me as I am unsure if I can call or not.

so hero pots ~1200
villain tanks a LONG time, folds 88XX, and shows

obviously, I got him to fold the uber top of his range here, but I'm not sure how often he is actually laying it down. maybe my play is spew? I felt given my flop b/3b that the turn follow through is mandatory, but I don't know if my play is overall +EV or if I just got lucky he decided to hero fold randomly. I could definitely see argument to just completely give up at every decision point, maybe not even betting flop to begin with, not continuing after he raises, and as played giving up on turn

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