Villain is 83/17 over 40 hands

Board is pretty dry and this guy could have anything. I don't see reason to bet.

When he checks the turn I think I can safely exclude sets, boats and quads from his range. If he had flopped a set he would likely have bet the turn for value (although you never know with these guys). In any case, I think I can start value betting here. That said, I think my bests is too small. Should probably be around 4.5BB.

He is ripping either 66,55, 89, 77, 6x or a flush. Do you think he will be doing something funny here often enough to be able to call ? I am calling 40BB for 91.5BB so he needs to be bluffing/value betting incorrectly here 44% of the time for me to break even on a call. He might have J7 or a worse 6 which I could get value from.

During the session I talked myself into a call because he was pretty fishy.