TPTK on paired board

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

TPTK on paired board

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.11, PFR: 17.53, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 257)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.34, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 4.82, Hands: 217)
Hero (CO): 120.1 BB
BTN: 102.3 BB (VPIP: 27.42, PFR: 21.80, 3Bet Preflop: 8.74, Hands: 793)
SB: 158.5 BB (VPIP: 19.01, PFR: 15.49, 3Bet Preflop: 2.97, Hands: 291)
BB: 96.7 BB (VPIP: 45.98, PFR: 24.14, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 91)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ad Qd
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 8 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

Flop : (16.5 BB, 2 players) 3h 3d Qs
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB raises to 42.8 BB, Hero ??

BBs AF=6.

I chose not to use the RIO hand converter because I would like to discuss how the hand should be played and not how it shouldn't have been.

BB seems fishy, but given stack sizes and his bet sizing it will be awkward if I call here. He will 3bet JJ+, AQ+ (those hands I would take for granted) for sure, AJ, KQ, QJ, Axs are optional. His x/r OTF seems pretty strong to me, i.e. AA(3combos),KK(6 combos), QQ (1combo), maybe AQ. Against AA-QQ, AQ I have 31% equity. Say, I jam here then this will yield an immediate profit of +2.5BB. Making it better than folding, no ? If he has only few spaces jamming becomes very profitable, say he does this w/ 4 combos that I am well ahead of A8s e.g., then shoving becomes profitable.. What's your suggestion ?

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