Too thin or not too thin? That is my question 100nl.
Posted by WM2K
Posted by WM2K posted in Low Stakes
Too thin or not too thin? That is my question 100nl.
Villains a reggish dude I havent seen around much before today. He seems on the tighter side but still somewhat aggressive postflop. I bet the turn planning on firing a blank river but I think this can be too ambitious. Not sure. River either we go for the thin value/protect our bluffing range or we check/fold. He s just not going to have enough combos of bluffs to c/c. He can probably have QTs-AQs, AQo, and KQ (not sure if I should include KQo). Obv he can have some flushes too esp nut flushes.
So bet or check?
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It's a clear value bet. We shouldnt be results oriented in these types of scenarios. We hit the top of our Value range on river, for Top pair. I put a majority of villains IP calling range capped at QX,99-JJ type of hand range that is trying to go to showdown. By hitting the top of our range, i dont see how it isnt a value bet. We're losing to the obvious Flush/QK, but we're not losing to any other KX hand ranges. I dont think villain is calling 2-streets with (TKs,JK,AK) just to bluffcatch us. by betting river, we also balance by depolarizing our river value range, where our river bets are not always nuts/air type of hand range.
In my opinion, you should isolate a little bigger out of position, or just complete with the K9o. This hand specifically is not that great to isolate with.
BTN played it like a champion, btw.
Not sure about your flop sizing. It's a board where the bet sizing doesn't really influence the range he continues with, and you don't rep much, other than Qx, a set, PP, or a flush draw.
Again, on the turn it just feels a little forced and bluffy, though it's obviously a good card to continue on, since it favours your range a little more.
I would definitely just check-call here, and maybe even check-fold.
You get value out of Qx, which probably folds due the runout.
His only real Kx is KQ and maybe a stone float, and you have the Ks for flush blockers.
His backdoor spade draws fold anyway, except for maybe AsQx with the spade blocker that's a little suspicious.
The fold is good, but I'd rather call his shove than bet 40/60 for value.
He's a reggish guy, so he knows he should only be shoving a flush here for value.
He didn't raise the flop, which he would have done a decent amount of time with big spades.
You have the second nut blocker with the Ks.
You've shown nothing but strength in the entire hand. If I had like an 89s, I'd just call.
I think he will float this board pretty widely because you don't rep much. He can shove a naked As that he floated with and called the turn with because of the picked up FD.
I wish a pro would come in and answer the question regarding thin value.
60 dollar pot. When/why should we lean towards normal sized bets Like 40/60 here) and when should we bet a little smaller, or perhaps even overbet shove as a merge.
I do think betting small thin value often turns your hand a little face up, and it opens you up to getting bluffraised.
you really cant view these situations in a vacuum. constructing various bet sizes should be more of an adjustment towards your opponents tendencies/gameplan. Essentially we are Playing against opponents tendencies and his range on various board textures.
if you think betting small on river is getting exploited by opponent, who perceives these bets as thin value bets.
Then i would be more inclined to readjust my range and bet 2/3 pots with my A(s)X(s) nutted hand range, thus hoping to induce a bluff
While potting with my TP-Sets, Medium value range+Air hands on river spots, where villain is less likely to re-jam as air, and be more inclined to flat with his bluffcatchers. If villain jams on river after i pot, then i could happily fold my Air/ TP-set hand range.
I wish a pro would come in and answer the question regarding thin value.60 dollar pot. When/why should we lean towards normal sized bets Like 40/60 here) and when should we bet a little smaller,
It's a common tendency to associate thin value with smaller bet sizes, and thus bet smaller when going for thin value, but really you want to stay away from this kind of thinking. Tailoring your bet sizes in a linear way like this will leave you wide open for exploitation since you will be betting your nutted hands much bigger. Essentially you want your "thin" value bets to be the same size as your "thick" value bets, in order for them to work. If you think about it, both types of value bets are likely targeting the same basic range of bluff catchers.
or perhaps even overbet shove as a merge.
Overbet shoving here would just be a bluff, not a merge. Almost impossible for it to get called by worse on this type of three flush board and thus you are really just trying to get him to fold some better hands like 2 pair/sets. It's an ok idea in this spot, but just not as a merge.
As for the hand WMK, I play it the same way. River is close and this is basically the bottom of our value betting range. Some of his other bluff catchers that you didn't include are all of the pocket pairs with a spade as well. Also this statement by you is a very good point: "River either we go for the thin value/protect our bluffing range or we check/fold. He s just not going to have enough combos of bluffs to c/c."
Great stuff.
Awesome thread
Parker, I think your approach is wrong. We have a lot of bluffs in our range since he has a bluffcatcher Qx a lot, and therefore we want to give him worse odds on a call so he can't just click call with his range, and therefore we want to bet bigger with out range. If we bet 2/3, he has to be good 28.5% of the time (0.66/2.33), so we can have 28.5% of bluffs in our range. However, since we have a lot of AsX in our range/flushes etc, I think we want to bet bigger, so he becomes indifferent with his Qx and he is gonna exploit himself by folding/calling too often.
Hmm I never specified what sizes I would use. I was just agreeing with his overall bet/bet/bet line. I personally go 20/24 on the turn and then 52/68 on the river. How big were you thinking?
Ah ok, misunderstood. I would check how many bluffs I have in my range and pick a sizing accordingly to make him indifferent with his bluffcatchers.
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