BTN is a smart winning regular. He's running at 24/19.
BTN steal - 53%
Fold to 3Bet = 49%
4Bet = 10%
Call 3Bet = 41%

I expect to get floated here very frequently by his entire range.

Villain folds to a cbet 34%/35%/35% in 3bet pots and has a WWSF of 49.

Turn is a brick of sorts, imo. Of course it's not as much of a brick as a 2d would have been, but if we think in terms of his entire range, 78s makes up a very small % of it.

So at this point, I know when I check it looks like I'm weak. But I also expect to be good most of the time or have 6 outs. With the price he's laying me, I think it's a standard call?

I'll also add that if he had a hand like 99 or 55 etc. I think he'd size the turn bet slightly larger in order to get the river jam to not be an overbet.

Do we expect villain to value bet jam a hand like 88? TT? Without additional history I doubt it. Perhaps once he sees me call him down in a spot like this maybe, but even then it's questionable.

So what's his value range? 55, 66, 99, 33, 78s. That's 14 combos. He can also have BDFDs as well that he floated with so there are a number of those combinations also. However, if we think back to his openings range, his 3bet calling range, and the frequency with which we expect him to float flop, I feel like he ends up on the river with a lot of air hands that he either has to bluff jam with to try to get me to fold a hand like AK/AQ/AJ or give up with. Based on the price we have to be good about 35% of the time, which I think we are.

What are your thoughts on my thought process and the call down?