this time it works, bluffing with weak sd value nl100

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

this time it works, bluffing with weak sd value nl100

sup, playing against a weak reg
Do you think that it's a good opportunity to turn this hand into a bluff?
Probably I have some weak sd value, but when this hands hits my range quite well and villain looks really honest It might be a good spot to overbluff?
played vs 31/24, cb 55/48/37, xf 59 flop/77 turn/72 river, x/r as a pfr 2% OTT!!!
wtsd 25/wwsf 45/w$sd 51

I assume he's not x/c better hands than QJ+.
So he's xc range is 9x, J6-JT, maybe some 7x with gs, but lets discount those hands to make our bluff less ev+.
So that's sure that I dont have any feq OTT. He has ~80combos, calling range OTT is ~25 combos of weak Jx = nice profit.
Even if he x/c all his Jx hands, his range is ~115combos, so calling range is 60combos, I still have +ev bluff.

I'm not sure if I'm calculating this spot right. Ofc it's probably not a gto play, just exploiting too honest reg.

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