Theory call vs exploitative river fold at nl50

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Theory call vs exploitative river fold at nl50

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (8 Players) CO: $59.28
BN: $64.30
SB: $40.10
BB: $50.00
UTG: $50.00 (Hero)
UTG+1: $79.33
MP: $16.97
MP+1: $50.00
12/11 over 212 - might indicate that his calling range isnt gonna be that wide - therefore he has got less potential bluffs.
3b 3
looks like an okay reg so far.
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is UTG with J Q
Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds
Flop ($3.75) J 6 8
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn ($3.75) J 6 8 4
Hero checks, CO bets $2.67, Hero calls $2.67
Not sure if I have 2 streets of value.
I also think I wanna protect my checking range since I am in a x/f mode with most of my AQ,AK.
River ($9.09) J 6 8 4 4
Hero checks, CO bets $6.48
Now it gets interesting. First of all, I am not beating any portion of his value range (given his sizing + the flushy river + fact that most regs arent thin vbetting enough).
After his larger turn bet, I believe that most guys are folding AK,AQ at this point, so he might perceive my range OTR as pretty strong - twopair+.
I also think that most guys are stabbing too many flops, esp. on this one I expect most of his bluffs to stab pretty liberally. Can imagine some KQs to play this way, but then our blockers are kinda poor and our hand is just a weak bluffcatcher (also blocking QTs isnt ideal)
All it leads me towards exploitative fold, even if in theory this is supposed to be a call most of the time.

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